国家公园原住民对野生动物肇事的认知、意愿及其影响因素——以武夷山国家公园为例

国家公园原住民对野生动物肇事的态度直接影响野生动物保护政策有效实施以及人与野生动物共存机制。迄今,学术界鲜有从原住民认知与意愿角度探讨野生动物肇事的成果,基于自然保护地国家公园的相关研究尚未见报道。根据449份有效调查问卷及深度访谈数据,论文采用有序多分类Logistic回归方法,探讨武夷山国家公园原住民对野生动物肇事的认知、意愿及其影响因素。结果表明：（1）多数原住民经历过野生动物肇事,其农作物及牲畜受到严重损害,野猪（Sus scrofa）为研究区域主要的肇事动物。（2）种群数量增加、食物短缺和生存空间受限是野生动物肇事的主要原因。（3）学历、经历及认可政府应对肇事的方式对原住民防范野生动物肇事意愿的影响显著。在此基础上,提出遵循生态规律、保护栖息地、提升认知与意愿、实行社区共管、建立野生动物致害补偿机制以及引入野生动物致害赔偿保险等对策,希望能够深化对野生动物肇事特征及机理的科学认识,为有效缓解人与野生动物冲突、推进国家公园人与野生动物和谐提供政策参考。     

道路交通事故所致骨折特点、致伤机制及其与交通方式关系的研究

研究道路交通事故所致骨折的流行病学特点、骨折的特征及致伤机制;探讨交通方式与骨折的关系及其法医学意义,为预防、控制道路交通事故、交通伤骨折的急救及法医学的鉴定提供重要的依据.本文对2004年昆明市道路交通事故所致骨折518例临床法医鉴定及199例法医病理检验鉴定资料进行系统性分析研究.2005年及2006年.全国与云南省的交通事故数量下降趋势明显.交通事故所致骨折有以下特点:(1)多处、多发性骨折常见;(2)骨折部位呈"离心性分布";(3)暴力传导性骨折明显;(4)骨折刨伤严重,粉碎性及开放性骨折多见,多数需手术治疗;(5)下肢骨折常见,胫腓骨是下肢骨折最常见的部位;(6)四肢多发骨折常发生同侧肢体,摩托车、电动车、自行车驾驶员及乘员和行人发生四肢骨折时以同侧肢体多见,机动车驾驶员及机动车乘员以异侧肢体多见.骨折损伤方式以碰撞为主,其次是摔跌.     

卡车与卡车前部碰撞驾驶员与前排乘车人损伤特征的研究

目的：研究道路交通事故卡车与卡车前部碰撞驾乘人员损伤特征,分析比较驾乘人员的损伤及损伤分布特点。方法：应用统计学方法对2001年-2010年昆明地区卡车与卡车200例前部碰撞人员损伤的法医学鉴定资料进行系统分析性研究。结果：1.驾驶员易发生损伤的部位是下肢、头颈部,其次为胸、腹部损伤。驾驶员易发生右下肢的损伤及骨折。驾驶员易发生颅骨骨折和肋骨骨折。2.前排乘车人员易发生损伤的部位是上肢、头颈部,其次为下肢,而胸腹部损伤较少见。前排乘车人员易发生上肢的损伤及双侧尺桡骨的骨折。前排乘车人员左侧头颈部受伤的几率大于驾驶员的相对部位。前排乘车人员易发生右肱骨骨折。结论：1.与前排乘车人相比,驾驶员易造成胸部、腹部及盆部、右侧下肢的损伤及右股骨胫腓骨的骨折,发生双侧上肢的体表损伤及尺桡骨骨折均明显少。在身体体表出现胸部、腹部及盆部多部位连续的损伤,有助于提高认定卡车驾驶员的准确性。2.与驾驶员相比,前排乘车人易形成左侧头颈部的损伤,上肢双侧尺桡骨骨折,右侧肱骨的骨折。当损伤位于身体左侧头颈部且有右侧肱骨的骨折,有助于提高认定卡车前排乘车人的准确性。     

卧龙自然保护区野生动物肇事农地特征及影响机制

野生动物肇事是保护区内部和周边地区的普遍现象,严重影响了保护区生物多样性保护的有效性,是当前保护区管理面临的新问题。以四川卧龙国家级自然保护区为例,于2014年7—8月以问卷调查方式获取了170个农地的野生动物肇事信息,建立了野生动物肇事与不同农地特征之间的二元logistic回归模型,并通过赤池信息量准则筛选出3个拟合优良的回归模型。研究结果表明,野生动物肇事与农地特征之间存在密切关系,其中农地种植作物类型、农地与森林、公路的距离、围栏的使用等农地特征意义显著(P值均小于0.01)。进而探讨了上述农地特征对野生动物肇事的影响机制及原因,并据此结果提出了野生动物肇事地的评价和管理、调整作物种植结构、统一规划和管理防护措施、减轻当地居民对农业的依赖等缓解人与野生动物冲突的对策。     

国家公园农户对野生动物肇事保险购买意愿及其影响因素——以大熊猫国家公园为例

国家公园内人与野生动物冲突严重,建立野生动物肇事保险机制是减缓冲突的重要举措。以大熊猫国家公园周边社区为例,分析建立国家公园以及农户风险偏好对野生动物肇事保险购买意愿的影响,并探讨冲突程度和制度信任的中介效应。研究结果表明建立国家公园显著增加了农户野生动物肇事保险购买意愿,而农户风险偏好对保险购买意愿会产生负向显著影响。冲突程度和制度信任是重要的中介变量,冲突程度和制度信任均对农户保险购买意愿产生正向显著影响。建立国家公园显著增加了人与野生动物冲突严重程度,进而对保险购买意愿产生正向影响。此外,建立国家公园显著降低了农户制度信任,进而对保险购买意愿产生负向影响。农户风险偏好对野生动物肇事损失程度产生正向显著影响,进而对保险购买意愿产生正向影响。农户风险偏好对制度信任影响并不显著。基于此,研究提出吸纳社会资本参与,拓宽野生动物肇事保险资金来源,开展社区共管、地役权补偿等措施提升社区信任以及建立基于农户自主防护行为的野生动物肇事保险机制等政策建议。     

野生动物肇事补偿对社区居民态度改变的作用及机制——以四川卧龙国家级自然保护区为例

野生动物肇事补偿是缓和人与野生动物冲突的常用措施之一，其核心目的是补偿社区居民的经济损失并最终改善社区居民对于肇事动物的态度，实现人与野生动物的和谐共处。以四川卧龙国家级自然保护区为例，研究了目前以及假设补偿后社区居民态度的变化及其影响因素和作用机制。在对态度进行多维特征划分的基础上，使用Wilcoxon秩和检验、二元logistic回归模型等方法探究野生动物肇事补偿对社区居民态度改变的作用以及影响因素。研究发现：野生动物肇事补偿可显著改变社区居民对于肇事动物的态度，且均发生了积极的改变，但对不同维度态度的改变作用不同。其中，喜厌态度的改变最明显，其次是捕杀态度和保护态度，最后是期望态度。肇事补偿对于社区居民的态度及其改变作用受到其社会经济特征的影响，其中是否受到过野生动物破坏、耕作总收入或总收入中耕作收入比重以及受教育程度显著影响社区居民的态度，农地总面积、牲畜数量、玉米地面积会显著影响社区居民情感态度的改变，玉米地损失面积会显著影响社区居民行为态度的改变。论文进一步讨论了各个影响因素的作用机制，并根据研究结果提出了普及肇事补偿制度、完善肇事补偿机制、调整生计策略和种植结构、通过多种...     

野生动物肇事：研究热点、难点与争论焦点

文章系统地回顾了野生动物肇事研究进展,对时空规律、肇事损害与评估以及防范策略等热点与难点进行全面梳理;同时指出当前争论的焦点,即如何协同社区发展与野生动物保护、当地原住民或动物哪方应当搬迁、如何开展动物肇事补偿、是否采用生物或基因控制等。在此基础上,展望了未来的研究趋势,强调突破人类地理学的研究范式、引入多学科研究视角、兼顾利益攸关者的不同需求以及关注自然保护地等,希望能够为后续相关研究提供一些有益借鉴。     

鸟类羽毛鉴定技术和分类研究回顾及展望

鸟类羽毛鉴定技术及分类研究是使用传统分类学、显微学、数学方法以及分子生物学、化学分析等手段对现有的完整或者不完整的羽毛材料进行观察和研究,并结合已有材料及经验来达到鸟类物种分类鉴定的目的.本文介绍了国内外鸟类羽毛鉴定技术的研究现状及进展,对羽毛分类研究中存在的问题进行探讨,并在此基础上对鸟类羽毛分类鉴定的应用前景进行了展望.     

中国机动车总颗粒物排放时空演变特征及驱动因子

机动车尾气颗粒物排放已成为城市空气污染的主要来源，严重影响环境空气质量和人体健康。研究基于2011-2015年中国市级机动车总颗粒物（total particulate matter，TPM）排放量数据，运用空间分析方法从存量和增量角度探究中国机动车TPM排放的时空演变特征，进而利用地理探测器模型定量评价其主要驱动因素的影响强度。结果表明：中国机动车TPM排放量呈逐年降低趋势，省会和直辖市是中国机动车TPM排放量减少的主要贡献者。省会和直辖市的机动车TPM排放量和减排量最大，其各年均值均超全国市级年均值的2倍。中国机动车TPM排放量和减排量均呈东部沿海至西部内陆地区递减趋势，且呈"低排放，高增加；高排放、高减少"的空间分布特征。"低排放，高增加"区域主要集中在中西部地区，特别是西南各省市；"高排放、高减少"区域为以京津冀为核心的泛华北平原地区。机动车TPM排放量的空间集聚性下降，空间随机分布趋势加强，热点区破碎化的空间分布格局日趋显著。地理探测分析表明，机动车TPM排放量受机动车数量的驱动作用最强，其次是机动车的使用强度，受自然环境条件的驱动作用最弱。年平均气温和海拔等自然因素主要通过与人类活动的共同作用显著增强对机动车TPM排放量的解释力。探究机动车颗粒物排放的时空异质特征和驱动因素，对提高中国机动车尾气治理的精准性具有重大意义。     

野生动物肇事公众责任保险发展困境与优化路径

野生动物肇事公众责任保险自开展以来, 存在着保险实施效果较差、承保机构参与不积极、保险范围难以扩大等问题, 在有效缓解人兽矛盾方面表现欠佳, 阻碍了生物多样性保护的落实与执行。本文以现阶段实施该保险的云南、西藏、浙江、四川为例梳理其应用模式, 并对具体地区的保险模式进行比较分析。研究表明, 野生动物肇事公众责任保险陷入发展困境的主要原因是产品设计不科学、财政经费不充足、政策制度不健全和保险体系不完善。建议优化保险要素设计、扩展经费来源渠道、健全配套政策法规, 建立政府主导、多方参与的中央财政补贴野生动物肇事公众责任保险体系, 该保险体系对于解决人兽冲突、支持生物多样性的保护、建立地球生命共同体具有重要的价值与意义。     

Case-control study of recidivist drivers involved in fatal highway accidents in Alberta in 1970-72.

A 3-year enpidemiologic study of fatal motor vehicle accidents was carried out by the Alberta Task Force on Highway Accidents. It was found that 11.1% of culpable drivers had been driving while impaired by alcohol on at least one occasion prior to the fatal accident, while only 3.3% of exonerated drivers had previous records. This significant difference led to a case-control study that demonstrated that the recidivist drivers (case group) differed significantly in a number of aspects from the innocent drivers (control group)--notably, age distribution, sex, whether drinking before the accident, blood alcohol concentration, ethnic distribution, class of accident and type of collision. Thus the recidivist driver is a greater threat to highway safety than the innocent driver and needs special attention by legislators and law enforcement agencies.     

The Epidemiology and Prevention of Traffic Accidents Involving Child Pedestrians

A study of 713 motor vehicle accidents involving 749 children in the city of Vancouver is reported. A control group of 110 children who did not have accidents was included in the concurrent study. Factors investigated were the driver, the vehicle, the weather, the time of day, the day of week, the month, the width of roadway, the location of the accident, the child''s age, sex, personality, school record, and family background, the type of injury, and the ambulance and hospital service received. Boys were more commonly involved than girls, and most accidents occurred in the 3 to 7 year age group. Head injuries prevailed in the younger age groups and decreased steadily with the age of the child. Specific epidemic areas in the city were identified and selective enforcement was suggested as a possible countermeasure. Hospital records seldom provided a detailed history of the events leading up to the accident. In order to apply the preventive techniques of education and enforcement it was suggested that in each pedestrian traffic accident the driver should be required to accompany the victim to the site of medical care.     

Does Human–Animal Similarity Lower the Need to Affirm Humans’ Superiority Relative to Animals? A Social Psychological Viewpoint

This research integrates different social psychological theories to test whether human–animal similarity promotes affiliation with animals and lowers the need to affirm humans’ superiority relative to animals. On the basis of theories of intergroup relations, terror management theory, and work conducted in the field of human–animal relations, we expected that higher human–animal similarity would decrease the need to affirm humans’ superiority relative to animals, by triggering a greater sense of shared social identity. Two correlational studies (ns = 187 and 191) tested a mediation model whereby perceived human–animal similarity was expected to predict a lower need to differentiate the perceived status of humans from animals through a process of social identification with animals. Mediated regressions provided support for these associations. A repeated-measures experiment (n = 176) replicated these findings by systematically comparing objectively (phylogenetically) more vs. less similar animals and assessing perceived status and identification. Results are discussed in light of theories of intergroup relations, terror management theory, as well as recent advances in the field of social psychology and self and identity processes.     

Sleep related vehicle accidents.

OBJECTIVES--To assess the incidence, time of day, and driver morbidity associated with vehicle accidents where the most likely cause was the driver falling asleep at the wheel. DESIGN--Two surveys were undertaken, in southwest England and the midlands, by using police databases or on the spot interviews. SUBJECTS--Drivers involved in 679 sleep related vehicle accidents. RESULTS--Of all vehicle accidents to which the police were summoned, sleep related vehicle accidents comprised 16% on major roads in southwest England, and over 20% on midland motorways. During the 24 hour period there were three major peaks: at around 0200, 0600, and 1600. About half these drivers were men under 30 years; few such accidents involved women. CONCLUSIONS--Sleep related vehicle accidents are largely dependent on the time of day and account for a considerable proportion of vehicle accidents, especially those on motorways and other monotonous roads. As there are no norms for the United Kingdom on road use by age and sex for time of day with which to compare these data, we cannot determine what the hourly exposure v risk factors are for these subgroups. The findings are in close agreement with those from other countries.     

The late whiplash syndrome: A study of an illness in Australia and Singapore

A condition commonly seen after motor vehicle accidents, the Late Whiplash Syndrome, which is defined as a collection of symptoms and disabilities seen more than six months after a neck injury occurring in a motor vehicle accident, is examined in a series of 300 cases. The author suggests that the development of the Late Whiplash Syndrome, some of whose characteristics are viewed as illness and some as illness behavior, depends on social variables.The differential distribution in Western countries and in Singapore is related to sanctions against entry into the sick role associated with this type of injury which are present in countries such as Singapore. Conversely, motor vehicle injury is legitimized in Western Countries such as Australia as an historical overview shows.The author's model of the Late Whiplash Syndrome lends itself to generalizations about the development of social illness in different cultures.     

Injury patterns in cyclists attending an accident and emergency department: a comparison of helmet wearers and non-wearers.

OBJECTIVES--To study circumstances of bicycle accidents and nature of injuries sustained and to determine effect of safety helmets on pattern of injuries. DESIGN--Prospective study of patients with cycle related injuries. SETTING--Accident and emergency department of teaching hospital. SUBJECTS--1040 patients with complete data presenting to the department in one year with cycle related injuries, of whom 114 had worn cycle helmets when accident occurred. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Type of accident and nature and distribution of injuries among patients with and without safety helmets. RESULTS--There were no significant differences between the two groups with respect to type of accident or nature and distribution of injuries other than those to the head. Head injury was sustained by 4/114 (4%) of helmet wearers compared with 100/928 (11%) of non-wearers (P = 0.023). Significantly more children wore helmets (50/309 (16%)) than did adults (64/731 (9%)) (P < 0.001). The incidence of head injuries sustained in accidents involving motor vehicles (52/288 (18%)) was significantly higher than in those not involving motor vehicles (52/754 (7%)) (chi 2 = 28.9, P < 0.0001). Multiple logistic regression analysis of probability of sustaining a head injury showed that only two variables were significant: helmet use and involvement of a motor vehicle. Mutually adjusted odds ratios showed a risk factor of 2.95 (95% confidence interval 1.95 to 4.47, P < 0.0001) for accidents involving a motor vehicle and a protective factor of 3.25 (1.17 to 9.06, P = 0.024) for wearing a helmet. CONCLUSION--The findings suggest an increased risk of sustaining head injury in a bicycle accident when a motor vehicle is involved and confirm protective effect of helmet wearing for any bicycle accident.     

基于基因突变频率识别低级别脑胶质瘤驱动基因

癌症通常由基因变异的累积所驱动,有效地识别癌症的驱动突变是一个巨大的挑战。目前已有方法更多是通过将基因组区域中观察到的突变率与背景突变率(BMR)预期的突变率进行比较或功能影响测试来识别驱动基因,该驱动基因本质上是存在统计异常的基因。而且并未对已有明确分类的癌症的子类之间驱动基因进行研究。本文引入关联规则算法,探寻发生该基因突变诱使病人患该子类低级别脑胶质瘤的有效规则,将突变数据与患癌结果通过算法建立关系,再通过支持度、置信度和提升度这三个指标对产生的规则进行筛选和评估,来预测候选驱动基因以及类间驱动基因差异。最后利用491例低级别脑胶质瘤体细胞突变数据,得到22个与结果存在关联的驱动基因及其所属的子类,敏感性和假阳性结果优于目前已有的单一算法,且22个基因均具有重要的生物学功能。同时建立了基于22个基因的低级别脑胶质瘤子类识别方法,模型总体准确率达98.99%,方法可有效区分三子类。     

The research of prediction model on intelligent vehicle based on driver’s perception

In the field of self-driving technology, the stability and comfort of the intelligent vehicle are the focus of attention. The paper applies cognitive psychology theory to the research of driving behavior and analyzes the behavior mechanism about the driver’s operation. Through applying the theory of hierarchical analysis, we take the safety and comfort of intelligent vehicle as the breakthrough point. And then we took the data of human drivers’ perception behavior as the training set and did regression analysis using the method of regression analysis of machine learning according to the charts of the vehicle speed and the visual field, the vehicle speed and the gaze point as well as the vehicle speed and the dynamic vision. At last we established linear and nonlinear regression models (including the logarithmic model) for the training set. The change in thinking is the first novelty of this paper. Last but not least important, we verified the accuracy of the model through the comparison of different regression analysis. Eventually, it turned out that using logarithmic relationship to express the relationship between the vehicle speed and the visual field, the vehicle speed and the gaze point as well as the vehicle speed and the dynamic vision is better than other models. In the aspect of application, we adopted the technology of multi-sensor fusion and transformed the acquired data from radar, navigation and image to log-polar coordinates, which makes us greatly simplify information when dealing with massive data problems from different sensors. This approach can not only reduce the complexity of the server’s processing but also drives the development of intelligent vehicle in information computing. We also make this model applied in the intelligent driver’s cognitive interactive debugging program, which can better explain and understand the intelligent driving behavior and improved the safety of intelligent vehicle to some extent.     

Accidents involving off-road motor vehicles in a northern community.

The increasing number of accidents associated with off-road motor vehicles used for recreational purposes prompted this prospective study. During 1985 the records of victims of all motor vehicle accidents who were seen at the Hudson Bay Union Hospital, Hudson Bay, Sask., were studied; patients involved in on-road vehicle accidents were included for comparison. Emphasis was placed on age, vehicle type, mechanism of accident, injury severity and the use of safety features. Almost half of the victims of off-road vehicle accidents were under 16 years of age. The poor adherence to government legislation and manufacturer recommendations was evident in the number of people who did not wear helmets or use headlights.