甜菜夜蛾抗寒与越冬能力研究

研究了甜菜夜蛾不同虫态的过冷却点、耐低温能力、可能的越冬虫态及其越冬能力,并结合气象资料的分析,初步确定了我国甜菜夜蛾的越冬北界.甜菜夜蛾3～5龄幼虫的过冷却点较高,分别为-11.17℃、-11.96℃和-10.50℃(平均-11.21℃),预蛹期次之,为-12.47℃,蛹期最低,平均为-17.16℃.在5℃、0℃、-10℃和-5℃条件下,甜菜夜蛾各种虫态的LT50、LT90和LT99.9均随温度的降低而缩短,尽管不同虫态的耐低温能力有很大的差别.其耐低温能力由弱至强的排列顺序依次为卵<成虫<幼虫<蛹.这些结果表明,蛹是甜菜夜蛾的四个虫态中耐低温能力最强的,因而是最可能的越冬虫态.但由于蛹在0℃条件下的LT99.9为38.06d,表明甜菜夜蛾在冬季0℃以下的温度超过38d的地区不能越冬.另外,连续两年冬春的田间试验结果表明,蛹在北京西郊越冬死亡率均为100%,说明甜菜夜蛾在北京地区不能越冬.根据这些结果并结合我国气温的变化规律,初步将我国甜菜夜蛾的越冬北界定于北纬38°左右,即1月份-4℃等温线左右.     

江苏丰县甜菜夜蛾田间种群虫源性质分析

通过观察甜菜夜蛾雌蛾的卵巢形态和结构变化 ,将其卵巢发育进度分为五级 ,即乳白透明期 ( )、卵黄沉积期 ( )、成熟待产期 ( )、产卵盛期 ( )和产卵末期 ( )。气候资料分析表明 ,甜菜夜蛾在江苏丰县越冬存活率极低 ,个别年份甚至不能越冬。根据当地积温预测的发蛾期远远迟于黑光灯灯下见蛾期 ,表明初上灯蛾是外来迁入虫源。以卵巢解剖法对 2 0 0 2年江苏丰县田间种群虫源性质的研究表明 ,2、3代雌虫的交配率均在 80 %左右 , 级以上卵巢比例均高于 70 % ;而 4代甜菜夜蛾的交配率为 6 4 .80 % , 级卵巢比例为 4 5 .6 6 % ,再结合当地的发蛾特征 ,可知当年 2、3代甜菜夜蛾主要以外地迁入为主 ,4代主要以本地虫源为主。根据 1 998年以来历年发蛾特征的分析 ,表明甜菜夜蛾存在明显的迁飞现象     

甜菜夜蛾对甲氧虫酰肼抗药性选育及其抗性生化机理初探

在室内用甲氧虫酰肼对甜菜夜蛾Spodoptera exigua(Hübner)幼虫进行抗药性选育,经过13代汰选,甜菜夜蛾抗性种群(Met-R)对甲氧虫酰肼的抗性倍数为4.19倍;交互抗性测定发现,Met-R甜菜夜蛾对毒死蜱、高效氯氰菊酯、虫螨腈、虫酰肼、甲胺基阿维菌素苯甲酸盐等药剂的交互抗性比值在1.05～2.07之间,不存在交互抗性。离体酶活性测定结果表明,Met-R甜菜夜蛾5龄幼虫中肠谷胱甘肽S-转移酶比活力是相对敏感种群(SS)甜菜夜蛾的2.44倍,存在显著性差异,说明谷胱甘肽S-转移酶活性增强可能与甜菜夜蛾对甲氧虫酰肼产生抗药性有关;但Met-R甜菜夜蛾全酯酶催化活性与SS的无显著性差异,说明其抗药性可能与酯酶无关。     

甜菜夜蛾防控技术研究与示范——公益性行业(农业)科研专项“甜菜夜蛾防控技术研究与示范”研究进展

针对当前我国蔬菜生产中甜菜夜蛾Spodoptera exigua(Hübner)高抗药性、猖獗为害、防控困难的现状,项目组对甜菜夜蛾的发生规律、越冬与迁飞、抗药性、生物防治与综合防控等进行了系统的研究。明确了甜菜夜蛾在我国各地的发生规律及发生动态,从南到北发生时间呈楔形,而发生量总体东高西低,从南到北呈中部高南北低的马鞍形。阐述了甜菜夜蛾"无卵子发生-飞行拮抗"的迁飞特性,提出了接力棒式季节性南北往返迁飞模式,初步阐明了甜菜夜蛾在我国东部地区的迁飞路线与迁飞时间。提出并认证了甜菜夜蛾在我国的越冬区域。明确了全国各主要发生区甜菜夜蛾对10种杀虫剂的抗药性水平,探明了甜菜夜蛾对茚虫威、甲氨基阿维菌素苯甲酸盐的抗性风险、交互抗性、种群适合度、抗性遗传规律和抗性机理,提出了抗药性治理措施。分别在海南、湖南、湖北、上海、天津等地进行了甜菜夜蛾田间药效试验,筛选出环境友好型高效杀虫剂7种。掌握了马尼拉陡胸茧蜂、夜蛾黑卵蜂和淡足侧沟茧蜂人工大量繁殖技术,改进了甜菜夜蛾核型多角体病毒生产工艺,解决了寄生蜂和病毒规模化生产及田间释放关键技术,达到规模化生产的要求。改进优化了甜菜夜蛾性引诱剂配方、研发出新型诱捕装置,并投入生产应用。集成出4套农业生产轻简化实用技术,华南、华中、华北、华东地区根据当地发生特点制定了4套防控方案。在全国甜菜夜蛾主要发生区建立试验基地16个,核心示范基地29个,年示范面积总计约3800hm2,取得显著的经济、社会和生态效益。     

取食不同寄主植物的二个甜菜夜蛾品系对药剂的敏感性

探讨取食不同寄主植物的2种甜菜夜蛾Spodoptera exigua(Hübner)品系对几种常用药剂的敏感性变化情况。试验结果表明,寄主植物对甜菜夜蛾的生长发育和杀虫剂的敏感性有显著影响,取食不同寄主植物以后,甜菜夜蛾2个品系对溴氰菊酯、毒死蜱、溴虫腈、虫酰肼的敏感性均有不同程度的变化,取食不同寄主植物的甜菜夜蛾蛹黑突变品系较甜菜夜蛾正常品系的抗性均要高,2个品系对溴氰菊酯的敏感性变化均较大,最大LD50之比分别达到13.36、12.30倍,2个品系都对虫酰肼的敏感性变化不明显,最大LD50之比分别达到2.54、2.23倍。     

厦门地区甜菜夜蛾的发生与防治

八十年代末期以来,甜菜夜蛾Spodoptera exigua(Hnbner)在厦门地区严重为害蘸菜,经1990—1993年调查观察。明确了甜菜夜蛾在厦门地区一年发生9—10代。无越冬现象。研究了各虫态发育历期、周年发生及为害情况,分析了严重发生为害的原因。进行了室内药效试验,提出了较为切实可行的综合防治措施。     

甜菜夜蛾田间种群的药剂敏感性测定

采用浸叶法测定福建省4个甜菜夜蛾田间种群对9种杀虫剂的敏感性。结果表明,甜菜夜蛾田间种群对乙酰甲胺磷、氯氰菊酯、毒死蜱、灭多威、顺式氯氰菊酯、定虫隆、氟虫脲、虫螨腈、虫酰肼的敏感性差异明显,LC50值分别为5272.75-6799.33、2387.34-3741.94、198.86-621.55、324.55-1124.94、133.20-399.67、19.34-72.68、38.92-134.11、2.38-3.06和4.84-5.76 mg.L-1;甜菜夜蛾田间种群对杀虫剂的敏感性在不同地区间也存在明显差异。2001-2002年,福州和漳州甜菜夜蛾种群对虫螨腈的敏感性分别下降3.96和5.30倍,福州种群对虫酰肼、顺式氯氰菊酯、毒死蜱和灭多威的敏感性也分别下降3.60、3.61、2.87和1.43倍,但田间种群对定虫隆、氟虫脲的敏感性有所恢复。     

两种虫酰肼类新化合物对五种鳞翅目害虫的生物活性

为了比较虫酰肼及其衍生物对鳞翅目 5 种害虫的毒力 ,以虫酰肼为对照药剂,分别采用浸叶法、浸虫法和点滴法测定了虫酰肼衍生物 0593 (Ⅲ f) 和 0673 对甜菜夜蛾 Spodoptera exigua（Hübner）、斜纹夜蛾 Prodenia litura (Fabricius)、小菜蛾 Plutella xylostella (Linnaeus)、棉铃虫 Helicoverpa armigera(Hübner)和玉米螟 Ostrinia furnacalis(Guenée)的毒力;通过浸叶法系统研究了虫酰肼和虫酰肼衍生物 0593 对甜菜夜蛾生长发育的影响。结果表明：0593 和 0673 对甜菜夜蛾 4 龄幼虫的触杀毒力分别是虫酰肼的 11.3 倍和 7.4 倍,对斜纹夜蛾 4 龄幼虫触杀毒力分别是虫酰肼的 30.4 倍和 24.7 倍,对小菜蛾 3 龄幼虫浸虫处理的毒力分别是虫酰肼的 4.7 倍和 4.5 倍 ,对棉铃虫3龄幼虫的触杀毒力分别是虫酰肼的 15.5 倍和 15.2 倍,对玉米螟 4 龄幼虫的触杀毒力分别是虫酰肼的 1.3 倍和 2.0 倍,较虫酰肼的毒力都有很大提高,而0593 和 0673 对 5 种害虫的毒力差异不显著。用虫酰肼和 0593 处理甜菜夜蛾 2 龄幼虫,都能导致存活幼虫陆续死亡;化蛹率和正常蛹数降低;成虫羽化率、单雌产卵量和卵的孵化率显著减少,对后代的繁殖力影响显著;在相同处理浓度下,0593 较虫酰肼对甜菜夜蛾后代繁殖力的不利影响更大。因此,0593 是较虫酰肼杀虫毒力更高、对生长发育和繁殖力不利影响更大的药剂,开发应用价值很大。     

溴氰虫酰胺亚致死剂量对甜菜夜蛾生长发育及体内解毒酶活性的影响

【目的】探讨溴氰虫酰胺对甜菜夜蛾 Spodoptera exigua (Hübner)的亚致死效应,为甜菜夜蛾的综合防治和溴氰虫酰胺的合理使用提供理论依据。【方法】采用饲料混毒法,测定溴氰虫酰胺对甜菜夜蛾3龄幼虫的毒力,确定其亚致死剂量（LC₁₀和LC₂₅）,并分别用该亚致死剂量处理甜菜夜蛾3龄幼虫,研究其对甜菜夜蛾的生长发育和体内3种解毒酶活性的影响。【结果】以LC₁₀ 和LC₂₅剂量处理甜菜夜蛾3龄幼虫后,幼虫生长受到显著抑制,虫重抑制率分别为11.55%和27.68%;LC₁₀和LC₂₅处理组3龄幼虫到化蛹天数分别比对照组延长0.07和0.20 d;化蛹率显著低于对照组（80.93%）,分别为63.89%和49.43%;成虫寿命显著缩短1.11 d和2.08 d;单雌产卵量和卵孵化率也低于对照组。亚致死剂量溴氰虫酰胺处理甜菜夜蛾幼虫后24-96 h,羧酸酯酶活性和谷胱甘肽-S转移酶活性表现出相似的变化趋势,呈先激活升高、后被抑制降低;而多功能氧化酶活性在药剂处理48 h和72 h均受到不同程度的抑制作用,这种抑制作用与浓度成正比。【结论】亚致死剂量的溴氰虫酰胺对甜菜夜蛾的生长发育有显著抑制作用,对其幼虫体内解毒酶活性也有不同程度的抑制作用。     

利用mtCOI PCR-RFLP技术鉴别草地贪夜蛾与其他3种形态相近昆虫

【目的】田间调查发现草地贪夜蛾与甜菜夜蛾、斜纹夜蛾、粘虫常混合发生,传统的形态学鉴定方法不能快速鉴别出该虫,当前亟需快速鉴别该虫的方法。【方法】本研究分析了草地贪夜蛾与甜菜夜蛾、斜纹夜蛾、粘虫mtCOI基因序列的酶切位点,根据目的片段设计上游引物并进行PCR-RFLP验证。【结果】草地贪夜蛾个体在mtCOI片段的556~561 bp处均存在Sbf I内切酶酶切位点,斜纹夜蛾、甜菜夜蛾、粘虫均无Sbf I酶切位点。草地贪夜蛾PCR产物经过Sbf I内切酶酶切,可出现420 bp左右的特征带,斜纹夜蛾、甜菜夜蛾、粘虫种群均不能被Sbf I内切酶酶切。【结论】基于新设计引物扩增的mtCOI片段的PCR-RFLP方法可有效鉴别草地贪夜蛾与其他3个形态相近昆虫,研究结果为草地贪夜蛾的快速鉴别提供了方法。     

甜菜夜蛾发生规律及其防治研究

甜菜夜蛾在福建漳州龙海每年发生9－10年,3月中下旬开始发生,4－10月份是该虫为害农作物的严重时期,其中8－9月份为全年发生危害的高峰期,通过田间药效试验,评价了不同类型的12种杀虫剂对甜菜夜蛾的防治效果,结果表明,除尽,菜喜以及米满对田间甜菜夜蛾具有较好的防效,锐颈特,杀虫单,敌杀死等药剂对田间甜菜夜蛾几乎失去防效。     

The toxicity of Bacillus thuringiensis 9816C to Spodoptera exigua related to the binding sites on BBMV

Abstract The binding and pore formation properties of toxins derived form Bacillus thuringiensis 9816C were analyzed by using brush border membrane vesicles (BBMV) of Spodoptera exigua and Helicoverpa armigera , and the results were compared to the results of toxicity bioassays. The strain 9816C is highly toxic to both S. exigua and H. armigera , whereas HΔ-73, which only produces Cry1Ac, is merely effective for H. armigera. Ligand blot experiment performed with peroxidase-labeled toxins revealed that the toxins of the two strains had the same binding sites as H. armigera BBMV and different binding sites from S. exigua BBMV. The toxins of Bt 9816C bind to a 210-kDa protein of S. exigua BBMV, while Cry1Ac cannot recognize this binding site. Both toxins were tested for the ability to alter the permeability of S. exigua BBMV, as measured by a light scattering assay. The toxins of Bt 9816C, which is toxic to S. exigua , permeabilized BBMV, whereas Cry1Ac did not. These results suggest that the specific binding site recognized by Bt 9816C toxins is responsible for its high toxicity against Spodoptera exigua.     

The effect of time of planting inoculated tubers on the incidence of potato blackleg and gangrene

In a series of trials in the years of 1973-76 inclusive, chitted seed tubers of potato cvs Ulster Sceptre, Majestic and Pentland Crown were immersed immediately before planting, on three dates in each year, in water, suspensions of Erwinia carotovora var. atroseptica, Phoma exigua var. foveata or a mixture of both. The development of blackleg was greatest in cv. Ulster Sceptre and most rapid after late planting. Its final incidence was not closely related to date of planting except in cv. Pentland Crown which was least affected when planted late.
Combined inoculum of P. exigua var. foveata and E. carotovora var. atroseptica increased five-fold the number of plants that failed to emerge and often retarded early growth of the remainder. Failure to emerge was more frequent the earlier seed tubers were planted. Yield was affected most by blanking and blackleg in the Erwinia- inoculated plots and was also reduced by the pre-plant dip in a P. exigua var. foveata suspension, especially after early planting.
Seed dipped in the mixed suspensions yielded progeny that after wounding and cool storage developed a lower incidence of gangrene than progeny from seed dipped in P. exigua var. foveata alone. There was no evidence that planting time influenced the incidence of gangrene during storage.     

The influence of greenhouse chrysanthemum on the interaction between the beet armyworm, Spodoptera exigua, and the baculovirus SeMNPV: parameter quantification for a process-based simulation model

During the building of a process-based simulation model for the epidemiology of the multicapsid nucleopolyhedrovirus of S. exigua (SeMNPV) in populations of Spodoptera exigua (Hübner) in greenhouse chrysanthemum, it was found that the effect of host plants had been under-rated. 'Missing links' included (i) the 'natural' background mortality of larvae of S. exigua in practical cropping conditions; (ii) the developmental rate of larvae of S. exigua on plant substrate in a glasshouse as compared to artificial medium in the laboratory; (iii) the validity of the results of dose-mortality and time-mortality bioassays conducted on artificial medium as compared to natural plant substrate; (iv) the distribution of inoculum released from deceased caterpillars over chrysanthemum leaves; and (v) the leaf visit rate of healthy caterpillars (as it affects horizontal transmission). Experiments were carried out to quantify these processes. Developmental rates of S. exigua larvae on greenhouse chrysanthemum were 36% lower than on an artificial diet. The fraction survival during the first, second, third and fourth instar S. exigua larvae in greenhouse chrysanthemum was 0.60, 0.80, 0.88 and 0.95, respectively. Forty percent of the first instar larvae reached the fifth larval stage. Second instar S. exigua larvae reared on chrysanthemum were significantly more susceptible to SeMNPV than larvae reared on an artificial diet. The food source had no effect on the time to kill S. exigua larvae. Cadavers of second, third and fourth instar S. exigua larvae contaminated on average 1.4, 2.5 and 3.3 chrysanthemum leaves. Second to fourth instar S. exigua larvae visited 2–3 leaves per day and spent 15–55% of the time on the underside of leaves. The above information is of critical importance for a trustworthy simulation of the epidemiology of SeMNPV in chrysanthemum.     

Stimulation and attenuation of induced resistance by elicitors and inhibitors of chemical induction in tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum) foliage

Elicitors and inhibitors of chemical induction were used to manipulate the activities of several putative defense-related proteins in leaves of the tomato, Lycopersicon esculentum Mill. The four presumptive defenses manipulated were proteinase inhibitors, polyphenol oxidase, peroxidase, and lipoxygenase. The elicitors used were jasmonic acid, methyl jasmonate, ultraviolet light, and feeding by larvae of the noctuid, Helicoverpa zea Boddie; the inhibitors used were salicylic acid and acetylsalicylic acid. These chemical manipulations were combined with short-term growth assays using larvae of the generalist noctuid, Spodoptera exigua Hubner, in order to assess the relative roles of the proteins in induced resistance to S. exigua. When activities of proteinase inhibitors and/or polyphenol oxidase in leaf tissue were high (e.g., in damaged or elicited plants), growth rates of larvae of S. exigua were low; when activities of polyphenol oxidase and proteinase inhibitors were low (e.g., in undamaged or damaged, inhibited plants), growth rates of larvae were high. In contrast, high activities of peroxidase and lipoxygenase were not associated with decreases in suitability of leaf tissue for S. exigua. The association of high levels of proteinase inhibitors and polyphenol oxidase with resistance to S. exigua – irrespective of the presence or absence of damage – strongly implicates these proteins as causal agents in induced resistance to S. exigua.     

Toxicity to Spodoptera exigua and Trichoplusia ni of individual P1 protoxins and sporulated cultures of Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. kurstaki HD-1 and NRD-12

The toxicities to neonate Spodoptera exigua and Trichoplusia ni of lyophilized powders obtained from sporulated liquid cultures (referred to as sporulated cultures) and Escherichia coli-expressed P1 [cryIA(a) cryIA(b) cryIA(c)] protoxins from three-gene strains of NRD-12 and HD-1 of Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. kurstaki were determined by using diet incorporation bioassays. Although sporulated cultures from both strains were more toxic to T. ni than S. exigua, there were no differences in toxicity between NRD-12 and HD-1. Toxicities of the three individual P1 protoxins against S. exigua varied by at least fivefold, with the cryIA(b) protein being the most toxic. These same protoxins varied in toxicity against T. ni by at least 16-fold, with the cryIA(c) protein being the most toxic. However, when tested against either S. exigua or T. ni, there were no differences in toxicity between an NRD-12 P1 protoxin and the corresponding HD-1 P1 protoxin. Comparing the toxicities of individual protoxins with that of sporulated cultures demonstrates that no individual protoxin was as toxic to S. exigua as the sporulated cultures. However, this same comparison against T. ni shows that both the cryIA(b) and cryIA(c) proteins are at least as toxic as the sporulated cultures. Results from this study suggest that NRD-12 is not more toxic to S. exigua than HD-1, that different protein types have variable host activity, and that other B. thuringiensis components are not required for T. ni toxicity but that other components such as spores might be required for S. exigua toxicity.     

Toxicity to Spodoptera exigua and Trichoplusia ni of individual P1 protoxins and sporulated cultures of Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. kurstaki HD-1 and NRD-12.

The toxicities to neonate Spodoptera exigua and Trichoplusia ni of lyophilized powders obtained from sporulated liquid cultures (referred to as sporulated cultures) and Escherichia coli-expressed P1 [cryIA(a) cryIA(b) cryIA(c)] protoxins from three-gene strains of NRD-12 and HD-1 of Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. kurstaki were determined by using diet incorporation bioassays. Although sporulated cultures from both strains were more toxic to T. ni than S. exigua, there were no differences in toxicity between NRD-12 and HD-1. Toxicities of the three individual P1 protoxins against S. exigua varied by at least fivefold, with the cryIA(b) protein being the most toxic. These same protoxins varied in toxicity against T. ni by at least 16-fold, with the cryIA(c) protein being the most toxic. However, when tested against either S. exigua or T. ni, there were no differences in toxicity between an NRD-12 P1 protoxin and the corresponding HD-1 P1 protoxin. Comparing the toxicities of individual protoxins with that of sporulated cultures demonstrates that no individual protoxin was as toxic to S. exigua as the sporulated cultures. However, this same comparison against T. ni shows that both the cryIA(b) and cryIA(c) proteins are at least as toxic as the sporulated cultures. Results from this study suggest that NRD-12 is not more toxic to S. exigua than HD-1, that different protein types have variable host activity, and that other B. thuringiensis components are not required for T. ni toxicity but that other components such as spores might be required for S. exigua toxicity.     

马尼拉陡胸茧蜂对甜菜夜蛾的控害潜能

为评价幼虫寄生蜂马尼拉陡胸茧蜂对甜菜夜蛾的控害潜能,编制了寄主和寄生蜂的实验种群生命表,测定了马尼拉陡胸茧蜂对甜菜夜蛾幼虫的寄生功能反应。结果表明:甜菜夜蛾年龄特征生命表参数为:净生殖力(种群趋势指数)R0(I)=122.0172,内禀增长率rm=0.1522,世代平均历期T=40.8556(d),周限增长率λ=1.1644;马尼拉陡胸茧蜂寄生甜菜夜蛾幼虫的生殖力表参数为:R0(I)=20.2479,rm=0.3045,T=9.8788,λ=1.3559。马尼拉陡胸茧蜂对甜菜夜蛾幼虫的捕食功能反应符合HollingⅡ型模型,a=0.8952,Th=0.0205,Namax=48.78(头)。通过生命表参数比较和功能反应模型分析,可见马尼拉陡胸茧蜂对甜菜夜蛾幼虫的寄生能力强,繁殖速率高,对甜菜夜蛾种群有较强的控制能力;从世代平均历期T的比较可知,在甜菜夜蛾繁殖1代的时间内,马尼拉陡胸茧蜂可以繁殖4个世代,在时间上天敌对害虫的发生是"超前的"而不是"跟随的"。因此在放蜂技术上应采取相应的对策,才能充分发挥天敌的控害潜能。     

江苏沿海农区甜菜夜蛾发生特点研究进展

本文探讨了甜菜夜蛾在沿海农区的发生代数、生态区划与寄主范围、生物生态学特性、暴发原因,同时测定了沿海农区甜菜夜蛾的危害损失、防治指标、分布型和抽样方法,改进了沿海农区甜菜夜蛾测报预警技术,组建了沿海农区甜菜夜蛾综合控制技术体系。     

我国甜菜夜蛾间歇性暴发的非均衡性循环波动

[摘要] 为进一步了解我国甜菜夜蛾Spodoptera exigua ( Hbner)间歇性暴发成灾的规律,作者应用时间序列分析技术研究了我国甜菜夜蛾间歇性暴发的时间序列波动规律。结果表明,在1949—2008年的60a中,我国甜菜夜蛾大尺度暴发总年频次为120次,各年度暴发次数(年频次)存在着非均衡性循环波动特征,并且在其波动过程中呈明显的上升趋势。按“年频次”强度,可将我国1949—2008年60a中甜菜夜蛾发生过程,划分成两个明显不同的阶段。第一阶段（1949—1984年）为平稳低发阶段,36a总年频次量为4次,年平均仅0.11次;第二阶段（1985—2008年）则为波浪式上升性高发阶段,24a总年频次为116次,年平均4.83次（为第一阶段的43.91倍））。按第二阶段24a（1985—2008）数据进行自相关系数和频谱图分析,结果表明,我国甜菜夜蛾大尺度暴发存在2.8a和11.2a2种不同长度的循环周期,其暴发趋势指数对滞后1a和滞后4a的影响为正相关,而对滞后5a和滞后6a的影响则为负相关。本文根据甜菜夜蛾暴发指数的非均衡周期性特征,建立了以时间序列为自变量的甜菜夜蛾暴发指数非均衡周期性预测模型,经回代结果检验,理论值与实测值之间无显著差异。