Assessing vulnerability of giant pandas to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China

Climate change might pose an additional threat to the already vulnerable giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca). Effective conservation efforts require projections of vulnerability of the giant panda in facing climate change and proactive strategies to reduce emerging climate‐related threats. We used the maximum entropy model to assess the vulnerability of giant panda to climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China. The results of modeling included the following findings: (1) the area of suitable habitat for giant pandas was projected to decrease by 281 km² from climate change by the 2050s; (2) the mean elevation of suitable habitat of giant panda was predicted to shift 30 m higher due to climate change over this period; (3) the network of nature reserves protect 61.73% of current suitable habitat for the species, and 59.23% of future suitable habitat; (4) current suitable habitat mainly located in Chenggu, Taibai, and Yangxian counties (with a total area of 987 km²) was predicted to be vulnerable. Assessing the vulnerability of giant panda provided adaptive strategies for conservation programs and national park construction. We proposed adaptation strategies to ameliorate the predicted impacts of climate change on giant panda, including establishing and adjusting reserves, establishing habitat corridors, improving adaptive capacity to climate change, and strengthening monitoring of giant panda.     

Impacts of temperature on giant panda habitat in the north Minshan Mountains

Understanding the impacts of meteorological factors on giant pandas is necessary for future conservation measures in response to global climate change. We integrated temperature data with three main habitat parameters (elevation, vegetation type, and bamboo species) to evaluate the influence of climate change on giant panda habitat in the northern Minshan Mountains using a habitat assessment model. Our study shows that temperature (relative importance = 25.1%) was the second most important variable influencing giant panda habitat excepting the elevation. There was a significant negative correlation between temperature and panda presence (ρ = −0.133, P < 0.05), and the temperature range preferred by giant pandas within the study area was 18–21°C, followed by 15–17°C and 22–24°C. The overall suitability of giant panda habitats will increase by 2.7%, however, it showed a opposite variation patterns between the eastern and northwestern region of the study area. Suitable and subsuitable habitats in the northwestern region of the study area, which is characterized by higher elevation and latitude, will increase by 18007.8 hm² (9.8% habitat suitability), while the eastern region will suffer a decrease of 9543.5 hm² (7.1% habitat suitability). Our results suggest that increasing areas of suitable giant panda habitat will support future giant panda expansion, and food shortage and insufficient living space will not arise as problems in the northwest Minshan Mountains, which means that giant pandas can adapt to climate change, and therefore may be resilient to climate change. Thus, for the safety and survival of giant pandas in the Baishuijiang Reserve, we propose strengthening the giant panda monitoring program in the west and improving the integrity of habitats to promote population dispersal with adjacent populations in the east.     

气候变化对邛崃山系大熊猫主食竹和栖息地分布的影响

气候变化对生物多样性的影响,特别是珍稀濒危物种的影响是当前的研究热点。全球气候变化对大熊猫的影响一直受到广泛关注。根据野外调查的大熊猫活动痕迹点、竹类分布点和主食竹扩散距离数据,采用Maxent模型,利用植被、地形、气候等因素,在RCP8.5下分析了2050年和2070年邛崃山系大熊猫主食竹分布及栖息地变化趋势。结果显示:(1)未来大熊猫适宜生境及主食竹气候适宜区面积均有所减少,到2070年分别减少37.2%和4.7%;(2)未来主食竹分布范围总体向高海拔扩展,但面积持续减少,到2070年分布面积比当前减少8.3%;(3)大熊猫栖息地未来有向高海拔扩张的趋势,在低海拔地区退缩明显,到2070年较当前减少27.2%;但到2070年大熊猫栖息地面积加上非栖息地有主食竹分布的面积,较现有大熊猫栖息地面积大1.5%;(4)受气候变化影响较严重的区域是邛崃山系南部以及低海拔地区,其余区域所受影响相对较小;(5)未来需要加强对受气候变化影响严重区域的监测与保护,特别是邛崃山系中部的大熊猫集中分布区。     

Habitat Assessment for Giant Pandas in the Qinling Mountain Region of China

ABSTRACT Because habitat loss and fragmentation threaten giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), habitat protection and restoration are important conservation measures for this endangered species. However, distribution and value of potential habitat to giant pandas on a regional scale are not fully known. Therefore, we identified and ranked giant panda habitat in Foping Nature Reserve, Guanyinshan Nature Reserve, and adjacent areas in the Qinling Mountains of China. We used Mahalanobis distance and 11 digital habitat layers to develop a multivariate habitat signature associated with 247 surveyed giant panda locations, which we then applied to the study region. We identified approximately 128 km²of giant panda habitat in Foping Nature Reserve (43.6% of the reserve) and 49 km²in Guanyinshan Nature Reserve (33.6% of the reserve). We defined core habitat areas by incorporating a minimum patch-size criterion (5.5 km²) based on home-range size. Percentage of core habitat area was higher in Foping Nature Reserve (41.8% of the reserve) than Guanyinshan Nature Reserve (26.3% of the reserve). Within the larger analysis region, Foping Nature Reserve contained 32.7% of all core habitat areas we identified, indicating regional importance of the reserve. We observed a negative relationship between distribution of core areas and presence of roads and small villages. Protection of giant panda habitat at lower elevations and improvement of habitat linkages among core habitat areas are important in a regional approach to giant panda conservation.     

汶川地震对大熊猫栖息地的影响与恢复对策

 大熊猫是生物多样性保护的旗舰种, 保护大熊猫及其栖息地是保护生物多样性和生态系统功能完整性与稳定性的重要保障体现。汶川地震灾区位于大熊猫重点分布区岷山-邛崃山, 地震及其次生灾害导致该区27个大熊猫自然保护区不同程度受损, 8.3%的大熊猫栖息地因地震而被破坏。地震及其次生灾害对大熊猫栖息地的影响主要表现在: 1) 地震埋没和砸毁大熊猫赖以生存的主食竹, 地震可能诱发主食竹开花, 威胁到大熊猫的健康和食物安全; 2) 地震及其诱发的土壤和山石运动显著影响森林的动态特征, 森林大面积丧失或质量下降; 3) 地震改变大熊猫栖息地生境特征, 大熊猫个体交流的廊道阻断, 形成“生殖孤岛”, 遗传多样性降低, 栖息地破碎化进程加快。应对震后大熊猫栖息地恢复的主要对策有: 1) 重新评估震后大熊猫栖息地质量, 并重新规划现有大熊猫保护区群的布局; 2) 应用地理信息系统、遥感及数学模型等手段与野外实地实证研究相结合的方法, 全面查清震后大熊猫栖息地主食竹资源状况及分布规律并及时监测其动态, 复壮更新大熊猫主食竹; 3) 利用天然植被自然恢复和人工重建等措施恢复因地震而退化或丧失的大熊猫栖息地。     

Application of ecological-niche factor analysis in habitat assessment of giant pandas

Ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) is a multivariate approach to study geographic distribution of species on a large scale with only “presence” data. It has been widely applied in many fields including wildlife management, habitat assessment and habitat prediction. In this paper, this approach was applied in habitat suitability assessment for giant pandas in Pingwu County, Sichuan Province, China. With “presence” data of giant pandas and remote sensing data, habitat suitability of pandas in this county was evaluated based on ENFA model, and spatial distribution pattern of nature reserves and conservation gaps were then evaluated. The results show that giant pandas in this county prefer high-elevation zones (> 2128 m) dominated by coniferous forest, and mixed coniferous and deciduous broadleaf forest, and avoid deciduous broadleaf forest and shrubs. Pandas avoid staying at habitats with human disturbances. Farmland is a major factor threatening panda habitat. Panda habitat is mainly distributed in north and west of Pingwu with a total area of 234033 hm², 106345hm² for suitable habitat and 127688 hm² for marginally suitable habitat). 3 nature reserves were located in Pingwu, covering over 49.2% of total suitable habitat and 45.6% of total marginally suitable habitat. Although 47.2% of panda habitat was in reserves under protection, connectivity between reserves was weak and a conservation gap existed in the north part of Pingwu. Thus, a new nature reserve in Baima and Mupi should be established to link the isolated habitats.     

Integrating population size analysis into habitat suitability assessment: implications for giant panda conservation in the Minshan Mountains,China

Compared to conventional approaches, the integration of population size analysis with habitat suitability assessment on a large scale can provide more evidence to explain the mechanisms of habitat isolation and fragmentation, and thus make regional conservation plans. In this paper, we analyzed the habitat suitability for giant pandas in the Minshan Mountains, China, using the ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) method, and then evaluated the current conservation status of this endangered species. The results showed that (1) giant pandas were distributed in a narrow altitudinal range in which vegetation cover was dominated by coniferous forest, mixed coniferous and deciduous broadleaf forest, and deciduous broadleaf forest with scattered bamboo understory, and (2) roads and human settlements had strong negative effects on the panda habitat selection. According to habitat analysis, the total habitat area of giant panda in the Minshan Mountains was 953,173 ha, which was fragmented into 12 habitat units by major roads, rivers, and human settlements. The habitat of the mid-Minshan was less fragmentized, but was seriously fragmented in the north. The panda population size estimation showed that 676 individuals inhabited the study area, and 94.53% of them were in the mid-Minshan, but small panda populations less than 30 individuals inhabited the isolated and fragmented habitat patches in the north. The nature reserves in the Minshan Mountains have formed three conservation groups, which covered 41.26% of panda habitat and protected 70.71% of panda population of the study area, but there still exists two conservation gaps, and the connectivity among these reserves is still weak. Due to habitat isolation and extensive human disturbances, giant pandas in the north (i.e., Diebu, Zhouqu, and Wudou) are facing threats of local extinction. In order to protect pandas and their habitats in this area, some effective conservation approaches, such as establishing new reserves in gap areas, creating corridors among patches, and seasonally controlling traffic flux in key roads, should be implemented in the future to link these isolated habitats together.     

Synergistic effects of anthropogenic disturbances on giant pandas

Livestock grazing and the collection of bamboo shoots are the main threats to giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) habitat in the Liangshan Mountains in China. It is important to clarify the effect of these disturbances to the giant panda to formulate targeted management policies. Based on species distribution models and daily activity models, we investigated the effects of livestock grazing and bamboo shoot collection on giant pandas from May 2021 to July 2022. Our results indicated the giant panda's suitable habitat in the reserve covered 51.83 km² (15.02% of the reserve area). Grazing and bamboo shoot collection led to losses of 19.08 km² and 7.68 km² of suitable habitat, respectively. Together, the 2 activities resulted in a loss of 28.35 km² of suitable habitat, which was more than half of the area of panda habitat. The areas of suitable habitat for giant pandas significantly overlapped with the areas affected by both disturbances. Giant pandas did not show significant differences in daily activity rhythms under a single disturbance, but the daily activity rhythms of giant pandas differed when we compared the area combining the 2 disturbances with the undisturbed area. Our study reveals that the anthropogenic disturbances in the reserve have varying effects on the suitable habitat range and daily activity rhythm of giant pandas and evidence of a synergistic effect. Therefore, when formulating relevant conservation policies, it is important to fully evaluate the extent and characteristics of anthropogenic disturbances in shaping the population distribution and habitat preferences of the giant panda and other wildlife to enhance the efficacy of conservation management practices.     

Characterizing the spatial distribution of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) in fragmented forest landscapes

Aim To examine the effects of forest fragmentation on the distribution of the entire wild giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) population, and to propose a modelling approach for monitoring the spatial distribution and habitat of pandas at the landscape scale using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro‐radiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index (EVI) time‐series data. Location Five mountain ranges in south‐western China (Qinling, Minshan, Qionglai, Xiangling and Liangshan). Methods Giant panda pseudo‐absence data were generated from data on panda occurrences obtained from the third national giant panda survey. To quantify the fragmentation of forests, 26 fragmentation metrics were derived from 16‐day composite MODIS 250‐m EVI multi‐temporal data and eight of these metrics were selected following factor analysis. The differences between panda presence and panda absence were examined by applying significance testing. A forward stepwise logistic regression was then applied to explore the relationship between panda distribution and forest fragmentation. Results Forest patch size, edge density and patch aggregation were found to have significant roles in determining the distribution of pandas. Patches of dense forest occupied by giant pandas were significantly larger, closer together and more contiguous than patches where giant pandas were not recorded. Forest fragmentation is least in the Qinling Mountains, while the Xiangling and Liangshan regions have most fragmentation. Using the selected landscape metrics, the logistic regression model predicted the distribution of giant pandas with an overall accuracy of 72.5% (κ = 0.45). However, when a knowledge‐based control for elevation and slope was applied to the regression, the overall accuracy of the model improved to 77.6% (κ = 0.55). Main conclusions Giant pandas appear sensitive to patch size and isolation effects associated with fragmentation of dense forest, implying that the design of effective conservation areas for wild giant pandas must include large and dense forest patches that are adjacent to other similar patches. The approach developed here is applicable for analysing the spatial distribution of the giant panda from multi‐temporal MODIS 250‐m EVI data and landscape metrics at the landscape scale.     

大相岭北坡大熊猫生境适宜性评价

2005 年3 ～11月采用样线法和样方法对大相岭北坡大熊猫栖息地进行了调查,通过利用样方法发现的大熊猫痕迹频次对栖息地的适宜性进行景观连接度(适宜性)赋值,对大相岭北坡大熊猫栖息地的质量进行了分析评价。研究区面积约为2266.79 km² ,其中竹林分布面积约为842.3 km² 。仅有约56.8 km² 占6.8%的竹林面积是适宜大熊猫生存的地区,次适宜地区面积为96.3 km² ,约占11.4%,较差适宜地区面积为177.4 km²,约占21.1%,3 个等级加到一起共为330.5 km² ,占竹林面积的39.3%,主要分布在2200～2800 m 的平缓山坡,有60% 以上为不适宜地区。人为活动对大熊猫栖息地的影响主要是不仅减少了大熊猫的生境面积,也降低了大熊猫亚种群之间的景观连接度,对大熊猫种群之间的基因交流产生阻碍。作者通过实际调查提出了管理措施。     

气候变化背景下秦岭地区羚牛生境脆弱性评估及适应性保护对策

脆弱性是指物种受气候变化影响的程度,开展脆弱性评估工作有助于人类认识气候变化对野生动物的影响,为制定野生动物适应气候变化的保护对策提供科学依据。采用最大熵模型评估气候变化背景下秦岭地区羚牛（Budorcas taxicolor bedfordi）生境脆弱性。结果表明：（1）当前秦岭地区羚牛适宜生境总面积为6473 km²,到2050s年,预测秦岭地区羚牛适宜生境总面积为4217 km²,减少34.85%,羚牛适宜生境将向更高海拔地区转移,转移约210 m;（2）已建保护区覆盖49.82%当前羚牛适宜生境,尚有3248 km²的适宜生境处于保护区之外;到2050s年,保护区覆盖了43.87%适宜生境,尚有2367 km²的适宜生境未被保护;（3）到2050s年,当前分布在太白县、佛坪县、洋县和宁陕县等地区的3490 km²羚牛适宜生境将会成为生境脆弱区域,丧失53.92%;（4）分布在秦岭核心区域的2983 km²当前和2050s年保持不变适宜生境,将成为羚牛躲避气候变化的庇护所。基于研究结果,就未来羚牛应对气候变化的适应性保护对策提出以下几点建议：考虑将当前羚牛适宜生境纳入国家公园范围、构建适应性生态廊道、加强野生动物监测。     

An ecophysiological perspective on likely giant panda habitat responses to climate change

Threatened and endangered species are more vulnerable to climate change due to small population and specific geographical distribution. Therefore, identifying and incorporating the biological processes underlying a species’ adaptation to its environment are important for determining whether they can persist in situ. Correlative models are widely used to predict species’ distribution changes, but generally fail to capture the buffering capacity of organisms. Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) live in topographically complex mountains and are known to avoid heat stress. Although many studies have found that climate change will lead to severe habitat loss and threaten previous conservation efforts, the mechanisms underlying panda's responses to climate change have not been explored. Here, we present a case study in Daxiangling Mountains, one of the six Mountain Systems that giant panda distributes. We used a mechanistic model, Niche Mapper, to explore what are likely panda habitat response to climate change taking physiological, behavioral and ecological responses into account, through which we map panda's climatic suitable activity area (SAA) for the first time. We combined SAA with bamboo forest distribution to yield highly suitable habitat (HSH) and seasonal suitable habitat (SSH), and their temporal dynamics under climate change were predicted. In general, SAA in the hottest month (July) would reduce 11.7%–52.2% by 2070, which is more moderate than predicted bamboo habitat loss (45.6%–86.9%). Limited by the availability of bamboo and forest, panda's suitable habitat loss increases, and only 15.5%–68.8% of current HSH would remain in 2070. Our method of mechanistic modeling can help to distinguish whether habitat loss is caused by thermal environmental deterioration or food loss under climate change. Furthermore, mechanistic models can produce robust predictions by incorporating ecophysiological feedbacks and minimizing extrapolation into novel environments. We suggest that a mechanistic approach should be incorporated into distribution predictions and conservation planning.     

野生大熊猫现状、面临的挑战及展望

截至2003年底,我国野生大熊猫种群数量达1596只,分布在陕西、四川和甘肃3省的45个县境内,总栖息地面积达2304991hm^2。与第2次大熊猫调查相比,野生大熊猫生存状况已得到改善,分布范围扩大、栖息地面积增加、种群数量进一步增长。本文在第3次大熊猫调查的基础上,就野生大熊猫种群及栖息地现状进行了分析,指出未来保护大熊猫所面临的3个方面的挑战,即来自物种自身生物学特性的挑战、栖息地破碎化及隔离小种群未来命运的挑战以及大熊猫保护与社区经济发展需求相冲突的挑战。作者还就我国大熊猫保护前景进行了展望,即自然保护区数量将进一步增加,栖息地状况将进一步改善;种群数量在总体保持稳定的基础上将逐步增长,但局部小种群灭绝风险将加剧;圈养种群将形成能自我维持的种群,圈养个体通过培训将逐步放归到隔离野生小种群中以改变其命运。     

用间接遥感方法探测大熊猫栖息地竹林分布

竹子是野生大熊猫赖以生存的唯一食物。探测大熊猫栖息地内的竹林分布状况,有助于深入了解大熊猫及其栖息地的空间分布格局与特点,并为评估其栖息地适宜性、破碎化程度和生态承载力提供科学依据。由于大熊猫的主食竹大都生长于林下,直接通过遥感影像解译的方法很难实现对其分布密度的探测。以佛坪自然保护区的两大优势竹种——巴山木竹和秦岭箭竹为例,在运用遥感和GIS方法获取空间连续的环境变量时,引入了林上和林下的光照条件,通过分析不同竹种与各环境要素之间的关系,建立竹子密度的预测模型,最后在GIS空间分析技术的支持下实现了对林下竹子密度的绘制。研究结果显示:该方法能够比较准确地预测出林下竹子的分布状态,对两种竹子的密度预测精度均可达到70%以上。     

移地与圈养大熊猫野外放归的探讨

移地是指将生物有机体从一个区域自由释放到另一区域的移动,通常包括引入、重引入以及复壮等3 种类型。野生动物的移地有较悠久的历史。在许多国家,通过移地以维持濒危野生动物种群在野外的长期续存已成为保护生物学上的一种重要手段。影响圈养动物野外放归成功的因素主要来自物种生物学特性、自然环境、社会生物学以及放归方式等几方面,同时,放归亦给基础生态学研究带来了新的机遇与挑战。大熊猫是我国特有的珍稀兽类,分布在秦岭、岷山、邛崃山、大相岭、小相岭以及凉山等几大隔离的山系。由于部分山系栖息地的高度破碎以及隔离小种群普遍面临的来自种群及环境等随机因素的影响,单纯依靠就地保护的措施可能并不足以保证这些隔离小种群在野外长期续存。在圈养大熊猫种群数量不断增加的情况下,将圈养个体放归野外以复壮孤立小种群应是一种有效的保护手段,同时,随着大熊猫栖息地质量的逐步改善,圈养大熊猫野外放归的时机亦逐步成熟。文中尚就圈养大熊猫放归野外之前亟待解决的问题进行了讨论。     

Impact of road construction on giant panda’s habitat and its carrying capacity in Qinling Mountains

The Qinling giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is an endangered endemic species to China. Despite ongoing efforts to ensure its conservation, concerns about maintaining its populations persist. We used GIS fed with data on land use including road network of 2001, third national giant panda survey, and a digital elevation model (DEM) to assess the impact of road construction on giant panda habitat, and estimate the carrying capacity of the Qinling Mountain area. We assessed habitat suitability with a mechanistic model, and conducted correlation analysis to evaluate relationship between the extent of giant panda habitat and amount of sites occupied by pandas within of 5 km × 5 km grid. We also estimated the carrying capacity of the Qinling Mountainous Area.
Our results revealed a significant correlation (R² = 0.447, P < 0.01) between the number of sites with signs left by giant panda and the extent of habitat within of 5 km × 5 km grid. The minimum habitat area that can support one panda was 10 km². Before the road network construction, the area of habitat suitable for the panda amounted about 1561 km² and that of marginally suitable habitat about 1499 km². The corresponding carrying capacity represented about 240 individuals. After the road network construction, the suitable habitat area was reduced by nearly 30% to 1093 km². Marginally suitable habitat and unsuitable habitat have both increased by 17% and 1%, respectively. As a result, the potential population size which the habitat could support was reduced to 217 individuals. The study results also suggested that most impacts on habitat from road construction took place in the high elevation areas above 1500 m. However, regarding the impact on the giant panda habitat, road networks developed much more inside the current nature reserves than outside of them.     

Impact of road construction on giant panda’s habitat and its carrying capacity in Qinling Mountains

The Qinling giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is an endangered endemic species to China. Despite ongoing efforts to ensure its conservation, concerns about maintaining its populations persist. We used GIS fed with data on land use including road network of 2001, third national giant panda survey, and a digital elevation model (DEM) to assess the impact of road construction on giant panda habitat, and estimate the carrying capacity of the Qinling Mountain area. We assessed habitat suitability with a mechanistic model, and conducted correlation analysis to evaluate relationship between the extent of giant panda habitat and amount of sites occupied by pandas within of 5 km × 5 km grid. We also estimated the carrying capacity of the Qinling Mountainous Area.
Our results revealed a significant correlation (R² = 0.447, P < 0.01) between the number of sites with signs left by giant panda and the extent of habitat within of 5 km × 5 km grid. The minimum habitat area that can support one panda was 10 km². Before the road network construction, the area of habitat suitable for the panda amounted about 1561 km² and that of marginally suitable habitat about 1499 km². The corresponding carrying capacity represented about 240 individuals. After the road network construction, the suitable habitat area was reduced by nearly 30% to 1093 km². Marginally suitable habitat and unsuitable habitat have both increased by 17% and 1%, respectively. As a result, the potential population size which the habitat could support was reduced to 217 individuals. The study results also suggested that most impacts on habitat from road construction took place in the high elevation areas above 1500 m. However, regarding the impact on the giant panda habitat, road networks developed much more inside the current nature reserves than outside of them.     

卧龙自然保护区大熊猫生境评价

生物的生境是指生物生活繁衍的场所,由生物与非生物环境构成。近几个世纪以来,物种绝灭的速度加快,生物多样性丧失最重要的原因是生物生境的人为破坏。对保持生物的生境评价,是分析这些物种种群减少,濒危原因的重要手段,还能为制定合理的保护对策提供依据。根据大熊猫生境分布特点提出了大熊猫生境结构理论模型,将影响卧龙大熊猫生境质量的因素分为物理环境因素、生物环境因素和人类活动因素,探讨了生境评价的程序与卧龙大熊猫生境评价准则,运用地理信息系统技术与空间模拟方法分析了卧龙大熊猫生境质量。在人类活动影响下,卧龙自然保护区内适宜大熊猫生存的生境面积有57597.3hm^2,其中最适生境面积为6256.1hm^2,主要分布在海拔2300－2800m的平缓山坡与台地。     

Back-and-forth shifts in habitat selection by giant pandas over the past two decades in the Daxiangling Mountains,southwestern China

Habitat selection is a complex process, and animals may change their habitat selection over time. However, we have a poor understanding of temporal variation in habitat selection of endangered giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), which has limited the development of conservation strategies for them. This study examined giant panda habitat selection in three stages of the past two decades (2001–2002, 2011–2012, and 2019–2020) in the Daxiangling Mountains, southwestern China. We applied the resource selection function to estimate the probability of species occurrence with five limiting habitat factors, i.e., elevation, slope, aspect, tree diameter at breast height, and bamboo cover. We found that giant pandas consistently selected for south- and west-facing slopes with mid-elevations and large trees in the three stages. However, there were shifts back-and-forth in the choice between higher and lower elevations and between higher and lower bamboo cover across the three stages. We suggest that the giant panda habitat selection had important consequences for gaining the high availability of palatable bamboo and good shelters. The back-and-forth shifts might be the result of changes in the type, spatial distribution, and intensity of human disturbance. Our study provides insights for improving our understanding and approaches for quantifying temporal variation in habitat selection in giant pandas and other species, suggesting that adaptive conservation and management in response to changing environments is needed.     

基于目标物种栖息地适宜性和景观特征的保护地功能区划研究——以甘肃多儿国家级自然保护区为例

生境的破碎化是导致物种濒危的主要原因之一，功能区划是对保护地进行空间布局和提升保护成效的重要手段。通过对生境进行适宜性评价，进而指导合理区划，是提升保护地功能的重要措施。基于目前保护地功能区划中存在与目标物种适宜栖息地空间格局不一致、与周边联系紧密性不足、边缘效应明显等问题，以甘肃多儿国家级大熊猫(Ailuropoda melanoleuca)自然保护区为例，根据现有保护地区划景观特征，通过扩大研究尺度和开展栖息地适宜性评价，结合适宜栖息地异质性和功能区的景观特征，基于提升适宜栖息地完整性和连接度调整保护区功能区划，并通过比较区划前、后景观特征和栖息地适宜性的变化以及大熊猫的空间利用来评估本研究方法的有效性。研究表明：基于本方法的新区划核心区适宜栖息地增加了16.03%,被保护的优质栖息地增加，核心区内缘比由调整前的5.35和6.32下降至3.97,被保护的优质栖息地增加，边缘效应明显减小，提高了保护区适宜栖息地的完整性，加强了和周边优质栖息地的联系，有助于提升核心区的环境容纳量，增强抵御外来干扰的能力，改善大熊猫的生存状况，促进所在区域的种群交流。