一类潜伏期和染病期均传染且具非线性传染率的流行病模型

研究了一类潜伏期和染病期都传染的具非线性传染率的SEIS流行病模型,确定了各类平衡点存在的条件阈值,讨论了各平衡点的稳定性,揭示了潜伏期传染和染病期传染对流行病发展趋势的共同影响．     

几个具有隔离项的传染病模型的局部稳定性和全局稳定性

首先建立了一类具常恢复率,有效接触率依赖于总人数的SIQS传染病模型,并得到了阈值参数σ的表达式.如果σ≤1,则疾病消除平衡点全局稳定;如果σ>1,则存在唯一的传染病平衡点且是局部渐近稳定的。对于带有双线性传染率和标准传染率的两个相应模型,我们进一步证明了当σ>1时传染病平衡点的全局稳定性。其次对于带隔离项修正的传染率的相应模型,我们同样证明了传染病平衡点只要存在唯一就一定全局稳定的结论。上述结果均推广和改进了Hethcote et al.(2002)的相应工作。     

一个具暂时免疫且总人数可变的传染病动力学模型

建立了一个具常恢复率和接触率依赖于总人数的SIRS传染病动力学模型，讨论了系统平衡点的存在性和稳定性，对双线性传染率的特殊情形，给出了传染病平衡点的全局稳定性结论，推广和改进了已有的相应结果。     

一类具有常数迁入且总入口在变化的SIRI传染病模型的稳定性

讨论一类具有常数迁入率,染病类有病死且有效接触率依赖于总人数的SIRI传染病模型.给出了基本再生数σ的表达式.如果σ≤1,则疾病消除平衡点是全局稳定的;如果σ＞1,则存在唯一的传染病平衡点且是局部渐近稳定的.对具有双线性传染率和标准传染率的相应模型,进一步证明了当σ＞1时传染病平衡点的全局稳定性.     

一类具有隔离干预的非线性传染率的传染病模型的全局稳定性分析(英文)

研究一类具有隔离干预的非线性传染率的SIQR传染病模型的全局稳定性,得到了阈值R及无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的存在的条件,并利用构造李雅普诺夫函数证明无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局稳定性.     

一类具有隔离干预和可分离广义传染率的SIQRS传染病模型的全局稳定性分析(英文)

研究一类具有隔离干预和可分离广义传染率的SIQRS传染病模型的全局稳定性,得到了阈值R及无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的存在的条件,并利用构造李雅普诺夫函数证明无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局稳定性.     

具媒体影响的时滞HIV传染动力学模型的稳定性

本文讨论了一类具媒体影响的时滞HIV传染模型的稳定性.分析了无病平衡点的局部渐近稳定性和无媒体影响平衡点的局部渐近稳定性,给出了媒体影响下的地方病平衡点局部渐近稳定的条件.数值模拟结果表明,媒体时滞的增大将导致HIV感染人数的增加;有效加强媒体的宣传报道力度可以减少HIV的感染人数.     

出生和死亡具有密度制约的不育控制下的害鼠种群动态

讨论了一类出生和死亡都具有密度制约的不育单种群害鼠模型,得到了各平衡点存在及局部渐近稳定的条件,证明了各平衡点的全局渐近稳定性.最后利用数值模拟验证了所得结论,并进一步分析了密度制约因素和传染率对于平衡点的稳定性及种群规模的影响.     

一个具非单调传染率的SEIR传染病模型的全局稳定性

本文研究一类描述某种严重疾病的传染数目变大时在心理上产生影响的非单调传染率的SEIR传染病模型.研究表明模型的动力行为和疾病的爆发完全由基本再生数R0决定.当R0≤1时,无病平衡点是全局稳定的,疾病消亡;当R0〉1时,地方病平衡点是全局稳定的,疾病持续且发展成地方病.     

具有非单调传染率的SIQR传染病模型的稳定性分析

该文研究了一类具有非单调传染率的SIQR传染病模型,讨论了平衡点的存在性,运用特征值法、Hurwit判据和极限方程理论证明了当阈值R_01时无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的;当R_01时,无病平衡点是不稳定的.并采用Lipunov函数法和Lasalle不变性原理证明了地方性平衡点是全局渐近稳定的.最后进行了数值模拟,验证了理论结果的有效性.     

Effect of a sharp change of the incidence function on the dynamics of a simple disease

We investigate two cases of a sharp change of incidencec functions on the dynamics of a susceptible-infective-susceptible epidemic model. In the first case, low population levels have mass action incidence, while high population levels have proportional incidence, the switch occurring when the total population reaches a certain threshold. Using a modified Dulac theorem, we prove that this system has a single equilibrium which attracts all solutions for which the disease is present and the population remains bounded. In the second case, an increase of the number of infectives leads to a mass action term being added to a standard incidence term. We show that this allows a Hopf bifurcation to occur, with periodic orbits being generated when a locally asymptotically stable equilibrium loses stability.     

具有种群Logistic增长的SIR模型的稳定性和Hopf分支

基于种群Logistic增长假设,本文构建了一个三维非线性发生率的SIR模型.首先探讨了该模型平衡点的稳定性,然后应用中心流形投影法得到了系统在非平凡平衡点附近产生超临界分支,并给出了数值模拟.     

一类带有非线性感染率传染病模型的动力学性质（英文）

主要介绍了一类带有非线性感染率的传染病模型.并且证明了当基本再生数Ro≤1时,无病平衡点是全局稳定的,当基本再生数R_0〉1时,疾病持续.     

Role of incidence function in vaccine-induced backward bifurcation in some HIV models

The phenomenon of backward bifurcation in disease models, where a stable endemic equilibrium co-exists with a stable disease-free equilibrium when the associated reproduction number is less than unity, has important implications for disease control. In such a scenario, the classical requirement of the reproduction number being less than unity becomes only a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for disease elimination. This paper addresses the role of the choice of incidence function in a vaccine-induced backward bifurcation in HIV models. Several examples are given where backward bifurcations occur using standard incidence, but not with their equivalents that employ mass action incidence. Furthermore, this result is independent of the type of vaccination program adopted. These results emphasize the need for further work on the incidence functions used in HIV models.     

一类具有标准发生率的SIS型传染病模型的全局稳定性

研究一类具有标准发生率的SIS传染病模型,讨论了各类平衡点存在的条件;运用微分方程的定性理论,得到了无病平衡点E_1和地方病平衡点E_2的全局渐近稳定的充分条件.     

一个具有时滞的媒介传播流行病模型中的Hopt分支（英文）

文章研究的是一个具有时滞的媒介传播流行病模型.假定长期的发病率是双线性大规模行动的方式,确定了疾病是否流行的阈值R_0.当R_0≤1时,得到无病平衡点是全局稳定的,即疾病消失;当R_0〉1时,得到地方病平衡点.在具有时滞的微分模型中,时滞与载体转变成传染源的孵化期有关。我们研究了时滞对平衡点稳定性的影响,研究表明,在从寄生源到载体的传播过程中,时滞可以破坏动力系统并且得到了Hopt分支的周期解.     

Exploring the relationship between incidence and the average age of infection during seasonal epidemics

The inverse relationship between the incidence and the average age of first infection for immunizing agents has become a basic tenet in the theory underlying the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases. However, this relationship assumes that the infection has reached an endemic equilibrium. In reality, most infectious diseases exhibit seasonal and/or long-term oscillations in incidence. We use a seasonally forced age-structured SIR model to explore the relationship between the number of cases and the average age of first infection over a single epidemic cycle. Contrary to the relationship for the equilibrium dynamics, we find that the average age of first infection is greatest at or near the peak of the epidemic when mixing is homogeneous. We explore the sensitivity of our findings to assumptions about the natural history of infection, population mixing behavior, the mechanism of seasonality, and of the timing of case reporting in relation to the infectious period. We conclude that seasonal variation in the average age of first infection tends to be greatest for acute infections, and the relationship between the number of cases and the average age of first infection can vary depending on the nature of population mixing and the natural history of infection.     

Effects of quarantine in six endemic models for infectious diseases

Thresholds, equilibria, and their stability are found for SIQS and SIQR epidemiology models with three forms of the incidence. For most of these models, the endemic equilibrium is asymptotically stable, but for the SIQR model with the quarantine-adjusted incidence, the endemic equilibrium is an unstable spiral for some parameter values and periodic solutions arise by Hopf bifurcation. The Hopf bifurcation surface and stable periodic solutions are found numerically.     

Analytical threshold and stability results on age-structured epidemic models with vaccination

This paper examines mathematical models for common childhood diseases such as measles and rubella and in particular the use of such models to predict whether or not an epidemic pattern of regular recurrent disease incidence will occur. We use age-structured compartmental models which divide the population amongst whom the disease is spreading into classes and use partial differential equations to model the spread of the disease. This paper is particularly concerned with an analytical investigation of the effects of different types of vaccination schemes. We examine possible equilibria and determine the stability of small oscillations about these equilibria. The results are important in predicting the long-term overall level of incidence of disease, in designing immunisation programs and in describing the variations of the incidence of disease about this equilibrium level.