唐家河大熊猫种群生存力分析

唐家河大熊猫是一个包括3个亚种群的异质种群,借助于游涡模型（vortex 8.21),对唐家河大熊猫未来100a内的种群动态动物了模拟,并分析了不同因子对该种群命运的影响,结果表明,在不考虑近亲繁殖,灾害等因素的情况下,该种群100a内在总体上保持稳定,并略有增长,但种群基因杂合率下降,累积绝灭率增加,尤以薄衣沟亚种群为最,提高环境容纳量,补充外来个体等措施能在不同程度上有利于该种群的长期存活,而近亲繁殖,灾害等因素则大大加速了种群的灭绝步伐,另外,成功的迁移扩散有利于异质种群的稳定与发展,否则对数量稀少的大熊猫种群有害无益,最后提出了针对性的保护与管理建议。     

四川宝兴县大熊猫种群生存力分析

宝兴县境内现有的164只大熊猫可被视为一异质种群,分为亚种群A(东河:115只)、亚种群B(西河以西:40只)及亚种群C(三岔河以下:9只).应用漩涡模型(VORTEX 8.42)对影响该异质种群未来动态的因子进行了初步分析.结果 表明:近亲繁殖对该异质种群和各亚种群的影响较为明显,随着近亲繁殖程度的加深,种群衰退的速度也越快;种群的未来发展对环境容纳量的大小变化具有高度的敏感性:环境容纳量大幅度减少时,对种群的负面影响非常严重;模拟的两种灾害因子(竹子开花和森林大火)对该种群均产生一定程度的影响,同一灾害因子,单次影响越大,种群下降越快,而发生频率较高、单次影响较小的灾害因子(如森林火灾)较发生频率低、单次影响大的灾害因子(如竹子开花)对种群的动态影响更大.     

长白山自然保护区黑熊和棕熊种群数量动态分析

1986～2010年冬季采用路线调查方法,对吉林省长白山国家级自然保护区阔叶红松林和针叶林中的黑熊(Ursus thibetanus)及棕熊(U.arctos)的相对种群数量和幼年个体比例进行了长期调查。调查面积分别为4万和3万hm2。调查期间累计遇到黑熊65头次(2.6头/年)、棕熊46头次(1.8头/年)。各年度黑熊和棕熊的数量变动很大,总体呈下降趋势。黑熊的数量较20世纪80年代下降了93.4%,幼体所占比率从17.2%下降为0%;棕熊种群数量下降了38.8%,幼体所占比率仅为7.1%。黑熊和棕熊的种群幼体所占比例极低,说明长白山自然保护区黑熊和棕熊自然繁殖力很低,2种熊种群均处于极度濒危状态。栖息地减少和盗猎可能是导致熊类数量急剧下降的主要因素。     

四川省乐山市黑熊资源调查

乐山市黑熊资源分布广泛,栖息地面积大．生活环境复杂多样．各县(区)黑熊种群密度差异悬殊。近年来部分县区随着生产建设的需要、旅游业的开发,破坏和影响了黑熊栖息的环境．非法猎捕。倒卖黑熊及其产品的事件不断发生,致使黑熊数量逐年减少。     

适用于种群遗传管理的小熊猫微卫星亲子鉴定体系的建立

由于标记缺失、生产记录不详、亲权关系不明及部分个体来源不清等历史问题,中国小熊猫圈养种群存在谱系错漏、近亲繁殖等风险。近年来,随着小熊猫种群规模不断扩大,管理者们对谱系的准确性提出了更高的需求,亲子鉴定工作也成为了研究的重点。本文采用26个微卫星标记,对国内3个小熊猫圈养种群进行了亲缘关系运算,完成了相关谱系的查错与整理。26个位点多态性与稳定性良好,联合非亲排除概率达到0.9999以上,可解决国内小熊猫圈养种群的各类亲子鉴定需求。在单亲未知或双亲未知的情况下,8或11个位点组合可实现亲子鉴定。5个位点组合可进行个体识别。在小熊猫圈养管理过程中,应用一套亲子鉴定体系对小熊猫圈养的谱系进行查漏补缺,有利于制定科学的配对计划、避免近亲繁殖,对小熊猫种群保护有着重要意义。     

用粪便形态特征初步研究新疆塔里木马鹿种群年龄和性别

塔里木马鹿分布在干旱地区,是唯一的适应干旱荒漠环境的特殊马鹿亚种之一.目前,塔里木马鹿种群面临着栖息地退缩和片段化的双重影响,这不仅导致了种群数量的锐减,而且也因物种遗传漂变和近亲繁殖的不断增加,进一步加剧其濒危程度.为了有效地保护该物种,全面了解种群结构是至关重要.对塔里木马鹿粪便的长度、宽度、长度/宽度比例和体积等参数进行了测量,并采用判别分析方法划分种群年龄.结果表明,塔里木马鹿粪便形态在不同性别之间有差异,一般雌性的粪便大于雄性(P<0.05).同时根据粪便形态对种群年龄划分为成年雄性、成年雌性和幼体等3个年龄组.     

黄腹角雉人工种群生存力初步分析

黄腹角雉(Tragopan caboti)为我国特有珍稀雉类。目前,其野生种群仅分布于湖南东南部、浙江南部和西南部、江西、福建、广东北部和广西东北部,估计数量约为4000只。湖南省雉类繁殖基地自1997年通过对执法检查中获得的黄腹角雉个体进行收容、救护以及驯养繁殖工作以来,该人工种群已经成功繁殖4年,至2004年年底种群数量为131只。本文利用8年的驯养繁殖过程中获得的种群生态学参数,借助漩涡模型(Vortex9.51)对该种群100年内的动态进行了模拟。结果显示,按照过去8年的生存情况,该种群在100年灭绝的概率为97%。成年雌性的高死亡率和频繁的灾害是影响种群长期存活的两个关键因素。如果成年雌性的死亡率降低到饲养后3年(2002—2004年)时的水平,种群的灭绝概率降低至5%,如果同时控制灾害的发生,其灭绝概率降至0。增加环境容纳量没有降低种群的灭绝概率和增加其增长速度,但增加环境容纳量对100年后的种群数量和基因杂合度有明显的影响。在降低成年雌性死亡率和杜绝灾害发生的情况下,可以考虑对种群进行收获(用作向野外放养),每次收获的数量应该控制在5只成年雄性和5只成年雌,开始收获时间为种群连续繁殖10年以后。降低成年雌性的死亡率、杜绝食物中毒和火灾等灾害的发生以及增加环境容纳量是该人工饲养种群长期存活和发展壮大的重要管理手段。     

黑白仰鼻猴种群生存力初步分析

根据黑白仰鼻猴 (Rhinopithecusbieti)的相关参数 ,借助漩涡模型 (Vortex 9 4 2 ) ,对黑白仰鼻猴的种群动态进行了模拟分析。结果表明 ,在没有近亲繁殖和偷猎影响的情况下 ,各亚种群 10 0年间均持续增长 ,即使数量较少的攀天阁和白济讯亚种群的灭绝概率也只有 3%和 6 %。在加入近亲繁殖和偷猎因素时 ,有 5个亚种群 (小昌都、乌牙普牙、金丝厂、富合山和格花箐 )保持增长态势 ,3亚种群 (茨卡通、各摩茸及响姑箐 )数量保持稳定 ,其他 5个亚种群 (米拉卡、巴美、龙马山、攀天阁和白济讯 )呈下降趋势。在其他条件相同的情况下 ,大的环境容纳量能够促进亚种群的增长 ,因此 ,保护生境是保护该物种的根本途径。偷猎对整个异质种群增长有负作用 ,所以杜绝偷猎发生是保护该物种的重要条件。近亲繁殖率随种群减小和时间推移逐渐增加 ,也对猴群的长期存活有负面影响。     

麋鹿沧桑命运与未来保护展望

麋鹿作为中国特有的鹿科动物,经历129年的保护努力,种群数量恢复到10000多头。因近亲繁殖严重,表面上看已无灭绝危险,但仍存在巨大隐忧。通过对麋鹿种群变迁、灭绝、重引入、恢复现状及四大种群(乌邦寺、南海子、大丰、石首野化种群)的发展趋势进行追踪分析,探究近千年来困扰麋鹿种群发展壮大的多重因素,提出种群保护与栖息地保护并重、强化疫病监测等保护对策,为麋鹿及其它大型陆生濒危哺乳动物突破种群发展瓶颈提供借鉴。     

种群统计随机性和环境随机性对种群绝灭的影响

影响种群绝灭的随机干扰可分为种群统计随机性、环境随机性和随机灾害三大类。在相对稳定的环境条件下和相对较短的时间内,以前两类随机干扰对种群绝灭的影响为生态学家关注的焦点。但是,由于自然种群动态及其影响因子的复杂特征,进一步深入研究随机干扰对种群绝灭的作用在理论上和实践上都必须发展新的技术手段。本文回顾了种群统计随机性与环境随机性的概念起源与发展,系统阐述了其分析方法。归纳了两类随机性在种群绝灭研究中的应用范围、作用方式和特点的异同和区别方法。各类随机作用与种群动态之间关系的理论研究与对种群绝灭机理的实践研究紧密相关。根据理论模型模拟和自然种群实际分析两方面的研究现状,作者提出了进一步深入研究随机作用与种群非线性动态方法的策略。指出了随机干扰影响种群绝灭过程的研究的方向：更多的研究将从单纯的定性分析随机干扰对种群动力学简单性质的作用,转向结合特定的种群非线性动态特征和各类随机力作用特点具体分析绝灭极端动态的成因,以期做出精确的预测。     

A theoretical approach for zone-based management of the deer population on Yakushima Island

The biological balance of Yakushima Island is currently being compromised by overpopulation of sika deer (Cervus nippon yakushimae). We predicted that the island's deer population would continue to grow unless control efforts are raised threefold from their 2012 levels. To identify the best management practice for future implementation, we evaluated and compared the performances of three different zone-based management strategies. Under the current management scenario, the median population size of the sika deer on the island would temporarily decrease, but it would subsequently rebound. Under a scenario that allows management zones to be prioritized according to the occurrence of threatened plant species and deer population size, model simulations suggested that the scenario focusing on the central zone would show the best performance based on the probability of achievement of the management goal (assuming that there is no dispersal between zones). This course of action would lead to a decrease in the median deer population size and would further ensure a high probability of achieving the 2022 target population size across most zones (up to 85 %), even if catch levels were not increased. In a future study, we would need to conduct a more detailed analysis of plants and deer density distributions.     

Attitude toward genetic testing for cancer risk in Istanbul

To identify attitudes toward genetic testing, and the effects of this information on decisions regarding issues such as pregnancy, abortion, and prophylactic surgery, several subsets of the Turkish population were surveyed in hospital settings. Individuals (n = 179) chosen arbitrarily from four different subsets of a Turkish population were asked to participate in a confidential 23-question survey. Survey participants were familiar with the concept of cancer being a familial disease (85.5%), and 84.7% of them expressed interest in genetic testing to determine cancer risk, 83.9% would have their fetuses tested for such cancer risk, 65.1% would terminate their pregnancies, 92.2% would have their children tested if they were determined to have an increased cancer risk, 71.9% would agree to undergo prophylactic oophorectomy or orchiectomy and 67.6% would have mastectomy/prostatectomy should there be an increased cancer risk to these organs. It appears that at least the sampled segment of a Turkish population is willing to undergo genetic testing to determine if they are at increased risk for cancer. The feasibility and acceptance of genetic testing and the influence of education and genetic counseling in the Turkish people should further be evaluated with a larger stratified sample of the population.     

Predicting the population consequences of human disturbance for Ringed Plovers Charadrius hiaticula: a game theory approach

Human disturbance and its potential impacts upon bird populations are currently topical and contentious issues for conservationists. Although many studies have revealed a behavioural impact, or even direct effect on breeding success or survival, these cannot usually be extended to predict the impact on population size. Here we present a population model that allows predictions of the effect that changes in human numbers, visiting a 9-km-long section of the coastline, may have upon the size of a Ringed Plover Charadrius hiaticula population. Human disturbance affects Ringed Plovers in our study area through birds avoiding areas of high disturbance and, in addition, through the accidental trampling of a small number of nests by people walking on the beach. Using the level of human disturbance and habitat variables (which define territory quality) it is possible to predict which areas of beach are occupied and therefore the sites available to the population. Breeding success, for a given area of beach, can be predicted from habitat data. Incorporating known, density-independent, adult mortality allows the equilibrium population size to be predicted. This provides a model that predicts population size. This model is then used to predict the population that the site would support with different, hypothetical, levels of disturbance. If nest loss from human activity was prevented, for example by fencing nests, we predict the Plover population size would increase by 8%. A complete absence of human disturbance would cause a population increase of 85%. If the numbers of people were to double, we predict the population would decrease by 23%.     

A multinomial model for estimating the size of a whale population from incomplete census data

This paper adapts the removal method of population size estimation to the problem of estimating the size of the western Arctic stock of bowhead whales. The whales are counted during their spring migration as they pass two census camps located near Point Barrow, Alaska. Whales seen at the first camp are "removed" from the population of concern to the second camp, where only whales missed by the first camp are counted. If both camps were in operation throughout the migration and if the probability of missing a whale were constant, the removal method would provide a population size estimate based on a trinomial model in which the size of the population would be the number of trials, whales counted by each camp would provide the observed cell totals, and whales missed by both camps would represent an unobserved cell total. Since the probability of missing a whale depends on visibility, we model the population size as the sum of the number of trials of several independent trinomial distributions, each of which represents a particular visibility condition occurring during the census. To account for the fact that watch cannot be maintained at both camps throughout the migration, we derive a confidence interval estimate of the number of trials under a more general model allowing for incomplete observation of totals within particular cells as well as for completely unobserved cells.     

环境演变及三峡工程对洞庭湖区东方田鼠种群影响的评估

根据历史资料,分析了洞庭湖洲滩演变与东方田鼠种群变动之间的关系。再根据三峡工程建成后下泄流量调度方案,分析了三峡工程对洞庭湖湖水位及洲滩环境的影响,进而评估三峡工程对东方田鼠种群波动的影响。结果表明,洲滩出露面积的不断增大和冬、春季洲滩连续出露天数的增加,使东方田鼠的栖息地扩大,并使其种群增长期延长,从而使其种群膨胀,三峡工程建成后初期,10－11月洲滩出露天数和出露面积将比建坝前同期有较大增长,建坝后中长期,洲滩出露天数和出露面积逐渐增大,东方田鼠种群亦将随之继续增长。因此,汛期洲滩被淹后将有更多的东方田鼠迁入到垸内,对农田的危害将进一步加重。     

Staphylococci in Competition: II. Effect of Total Numbers and Proportion of Staphylococci in Mixed Cultures on Growth in Artificial Culture Medium

In studies carried on in bacteriological media with selected cultures, definite repressive effects were noted on the growth of the Staphylococcus population by a mixture of saprophytic, psychrophilic bacterial species. This repressive effect became more pronounced as the relative proportion of the bacterial population which was staphylococcal became smaller. A varied saprophytic bacterial flora of some numbers apparently would offer definite protection to foods through repression of staphylococcal growth and by rendering the food inedible before the rise of appreciable numbers of staphylococci. It would appear that at the optimal temperature for staphylococcal growth, staphylococci could multiply rapidly in the mixed population due to the comparative shortness of the generation time of this species and because of the lengthened lag phase of the saprophytic bacterial species at this elevated temperature, especially when only cultures having psychrophilic characteristics were present. This temperature is substantially above that encountered in practical experience. With the passage of time, the staphylococcal population was completely overgrown by the saprohytes present. This effect might be eliminated in the presence of psychrophilic and mesophilic, saprophytic species. The repressive effect of competition by saprophytic, psychrophilic organisms is extremely effective up to room temperature on the staphylococcal population. Even when significant staphylococcal populations were achieved in the artificial media, such tremendous numbers of saprophytes were obtained either earlier or at the same time so that a frozen food containing this population would be organoleptically unacceptable due to the degradative action of enzymes from the saprophytic psychrophile population.     

马麝年龄指标的判别分析

利用马麝(Moschus chrysogaster)头骨度量的28项指标,通过判别分析建立其种群年龄结构的判别函数,为保护其种群提供了理论依据。     

不同QTL增效基因初始频率下标记辅助选择的效果

采用随机模拟方法模拟了在一个闭锁群体内连续对单个性状选择10个世代的情形。在假定选择性状受一个位于常染色体上的QTL和多基因共同控制的情况下,采用动物模型标记辅助最佳线性无偏预测方法估计个体育种值并据此进行种畜的选留,并在此基础上系统地比较了QTL增效基因初始频率对标记辅助选择效果的影响。结果表明：当群体中QTL增效基因的初始频率较低时,选择所获得的QTL基因型值的进展会更大,标记辅助选择在单位时间内可获得较大的遗传进展;此时,尽管QTL增效基因在群体中固定所需的世代数会更长一些,但其频率上升的速度却更快。而QTL增效基因初始频率的高低对群体近交增量的影响不是很大。     

Happily together forever: temporal variation in spatial patterns and complete lack of territoriality in a promiscuous rodent

The availability of resources, their effect on population density and territoriality, and the ways in which these factors are interwoven with mating systems are important determinants of small mammal space use. It is often difficult to study these patterns in an integrated way, however, especially because long-term data are needed but not readily available. In this paper, we investigate effects of population density, season and breeding status on home range patterns of the promiscuous rodent Mastomys natalensis using monthly capture-mark-recapture data collected over 17 years in a 3-ha grid. Home ranges were estimated using minimum convex polygons bounded by trap locations, and home range overlap and visitation rates were calculated as a measure of territoriality. As higher population densities coincide with increased resource availability, we predicted that home range sizes would correlate negatively with density. Furthermore, as M. natalensis is promiscuous and population densities are generally high, we predicted that territoriality would be low, and home range overlap would therefore be high. Contrary to expectations the home ranges of female adults increased with population density, although those of male adults and subadults followed the expected decrease. Home range overlap and visitation rates were generally high, and increased significantly with population density. More importantly, they were never lower than those of simulated datasets consisting of randomly moved home ranges. These results therefore suggest that M. natalensis displays a complete lack of territoriality that is rarely seen in small mammals but still meets predictions based on knowledge of density and mating system.     

根茎型木本克隆植物准噶尔无叶豆的种群数量动态

 根据根茎型木本克隆植物的特征, 不以种群的分株数量代表种群大小, 而尝试以不同茎级的根茎长度代表种群大小, 运用种群静态生命表、存活曲线、生殖力表和Leslie矩阵模型, 研究了准噶尔无叶豆(Eremosparton songoricum)的两个种群——A种群(46°31.09′ N, 88°33.06′ E, 紧邻乌伦古湖)和B种群(46°28.07′ N, 88°33.07′ E, 位于沙漠腹地)的种群数量动态。结果表明: 种群存活表现为Deevey-I型。A种群在中龄阶段受到的人为干扰较大, 死亡率出现高峰, 种群的净增长率(R₀)、内禀增长率(r_m)和周限增长率(λ)较低, 表现为衰退型种群, Leslie矩阵模型的模拟结果表明, 15 a内种群呈现下降趋势; B种群所受到的压力主要是干旱贫瘠的荒漠环境所导致的系统压力, 种群的R₀、r_m和λ值适中, 表现为缓慢增长型种群, Leslie矩阵模型的模拟结果表明, 15 a内种群呈现先下降、再上升的趋势。此外, 研究结果验证了Leslie矩阵模型可以扩展应用到根茎型木本克隆植物这类特殊生活型植物的种群数量动态研究上。