基于AHP—熵值综合赋权法的煤炭资源型城市生态—经济—社会协调发展分析——以鄂尔多斯市为例

生态—经济—社会多维关系及协调发展研究对煤炭资源型城市可持续发展具有重要理论意义。以鄂尔多斯市生态、经济、社会子系统为研究对象,构建区域生态—经济—社会系统评价指标体系,采用AHP—熵值综合赋权法、耦合协调度模型、灰色预测模型对鄂尔多斯协调发展水平进行评价。结果表明:(1)经济子系统评价指数呈快速增长趋势,生态、社会子系统相对于经济子系统具有较大滞后性,且生态子系统呈波动式下降趋势。(2)鄂尔多斯市二维、三维系统以高水平耦合状态为主,多维系统耦合协调度呈上升趋势,从失调衰退类向过渡发展类转变。(3)通过GM(1, 1)预测, EES三维系统未来10年耦合协调度呈上升发展趋势,协调发展水平不断提高。针对鄂尔多斯市自身特点构建的指标体系与评价模型对实现区域多维系统协调发展具有重要参考价值。     

湖南省贫困地区生态-经济-社会复合系统可持续发展水平综合评价

为了配合搞好湖南省贫困地区的扶贫攻坚工作,搞好贫困地区的生态环境建设,确切分析湖南省贫困地区的可持续发展能力,对该区域的可持续发展水平进行综合评价研究。因此,我们根据湖南省31个贫困县现有自然、生态、经济、社会数据,采用主成分分析和层次分析的方法,确定各级评价指标的权重,用标准指数加权综合法与多元统计分析相结合的方法,分自然资源子系统、经济子系统、环境子系统和社会子系统对该区域的可持续发展水平进行了综合评价和横向比较。     

国家尺度区域农业系统协调度评价

区域农业系统协调是农业持续高效发展的重要前提,也是构建和谐社会的主旋律.以数理统计学上的方差、平均数和变异系数原理为基础,构建了区域农业系统协调度评价的理论体系,其突出优点是既考虑指标间集中性,同时又考虑了离散性,评价结果更加客观科学.区域农业系统协调理论包括协调度概念、功效函数、功效系数、协调函数、协调度、协调度变化区间和协调等级等,核心是协调度与协调等级.区域农业系统评价指标体系的构建采用改进专家调查法,从生态、经济和社会子系统共筛选出29个评价指标.选取1990～2003年资料,对国家尺度区域农业系统协调度进行评价研究.研究结果表明:国家区域农业系统协调度呈现上升发展趋势,1997年从失调转向协调,2000年从弱度协调转向低度协调,总体呈现好转状态.经济子系统的协调等级从1990年的极度失调1级逐渐上升到2003年的高度协调9级.社会子系统的协调度在1990～2000年,从1级上升至8级协调等级,2001年下降6级,2002和2003两年上升至7级.生态子系统的协调等级由1990年的为中度失调3级,上升到2003年低度协调7级.1990～1992年,系统失调是由于生态、经济和社会子系统均处于失调状态;1993～1996年,系统失调是由于经济和社会子系统处于失调状态,生态子系统是弱度协调;1997～2003生态、经济和社会子系统的协调发展,系统转入协调状态,其中经济子系统贡献最大,成为决定系统协调度高低的主要原因,此时生态和社会子系统对区域农业系统协调发展有一定的制约作用.因此,发展农村经济,重视生态环境建设,构建和谐社会,是推动国家尺度区域农业系统协调发展的重要途径.     

基于集对分析的京津冀区域可持续发展协调能力评价

区域发展的协调能力是区域可持续发展的重要表征之一。采用社会经济各相关部门的统计数据及资料,构建区域可持续发展评价指标和各级评价标准,利用集对分析中的同异反态势排序的协调发展评价模型实证分析了京津冀地区2000—2010年间的可持续发展协调能力。结果表明:(1)2000—2004年间北京和天津属于不协调发展,2006—2010年逐渐步入弱协调发展,但研究时段内河北省始终为不协调发展。(2)京、津和冀协调能力指数2010年相比2000年分别提高27.86%、8.87%和18.51%,各省域协调发展改善均不明显且步伐不一。(3)对京津冀区域各省域的发展提出了具体建议,但仍要加强各地区的合作和明确各自功能地位尤其重要。研究结果可以为京津冀整体规划的制定及实施提供科学依据和指导,也为环渤海经济圈可持续发展研究奠定了基础。     

区域经济-环境复合生态系统协调发展动态评价——以连云港为例

经济与环境协调发展评价是发展中国家可持续发展领域研究的热点问题。目前协调评价的模型取得了新的进展,但在应用方面多集中在现状评价,预测的案例较少;另外现有的研究多以经济子系统的发展水平与环境子系统的发展水平进行协调性评价,忽略了发展潜力这一重要变量。以连云港为分析案例,把发展潜力作为重要变量与发展水平变量相结合计算得到的综合发展指数纳入经济与环境协调评价模型中,并尝试根据系统历史与现状协调发展的演变规律运用GM(1,1)灰色模型预测系统未来的协调发展状态。现状评价与未来的预测结果表明:(1)1996—1999年连云港经济与环境系统从低级共生向环境资源的粗放利用转变;(2)2000—2006年,经济与环境的关系进入快速调整期,经济-环境复合生态系统综合发展指数不断增强,协调程度较上一阶段变化稳定;(3)到2007—2009年,环境对经济的限制作用将又逐渐显现;(4)2010—2015年,经济-环境复合生态系统整体协调度和综合发展指数都相应处于快速上升阶段。综合来看,1999年以后连云港经济-环境复合生态系统的协调度均处于0°以下,说明连云港在经济快速发展的初期往往是以环境破坏为代价的,因此在以后的发展中应主要处理好经济发展与环境保护的速度和公平问题。     

京津冀地区城市化与生态环境交互耦合关系定量测度

城市化与生态环境之间客观上存在着极其复杂的交互耦合关系,如何实现城市化与生态环境协调发展将是世界经济社会发展的核心议题,也是近年来国内外研究的热点命题。首先构建了城市化和生态环境系统综合评价指标体系,然后借助物理学耦合模型,构建了城市化与生态环境动态耦合协调度模型,定量分析了1980—2011年京津冀地区城市化与生态环境的耦合过程与演进趋势。结果表明:人口城市化和生态压力分别对城市化子系统与生态环境子系统的贡献份额最大,明显高于其他因素;在耦合协调度测算模型中,城市化子系统与生态环境子系统3种不同贡献份额所得出的耦合协调度的变化趋势是一致的,表明耦合协调度模型受城市化与生态环境子系统贡献份额比例的影响很小;1980年以来京津冀地区的城市化与生态环境耦合协调度呈现出S型曲线变化,协调类型从严重不协调-城市化受阻发展到高级协调-生态环境滞后类型;正确认识城市化与生态环境交互胁迫的时空动态耦合规律,采取恰当的区域发展政策和适当的城市发展战略,对进一步加快区域城市化进程,改善生态环境,实现京津冀地区城市化与生态环境的协调和可持续发展具有重要的指导意义。     

基于元指标理论的庆阳区域可持续发展研究

对庆阳各县(区)1990年以来区域可持续发展的时空演变规律及特征进行了综合研究。首先基于元指标理论,构建了庆阳县域可持续发展评价指标体系及综合评价模型,对庆阳各县(区)1990年以来的区域可持续发展状况进行了综合评价及分析。之后根据评价结果,使用重心位移分析法与GIS技术,对庆阳区域可持续发展的空间结构进行了分析。结果表明:1990—2008年,庆阳的区域可持续发展综合水平总体上是在逐渐增强,但这种增强的主要拉动力是经济的快速增长与社会的迅速进步,是以牺牲资源和环境为代价的,这必将最终导致区域可持续发展状况的全面恶化,目前西峰、庆城等部分县区的区域可持续发展综合水平在2005年后已经出现了下降的趋势;1990—2008年,庆阳区域可持续发展持续性重心总体上是向南移动,区域可持续发展协调性重心与综合水平重心的波动较大,反映出各县区的区域可持续发展状况总体上不均衡、不稳定。     

基于能值改进的开放系统生态足迹模型及其应用——以深圳市为例

对生态经济复合系统综合评价是实现区域可持续发展首先要面对的科学问题.针对传统生态足迹模型的系统封闭性和空间互斥性等不合理假设,利用从系统论出发并具有基于流量算法优点的能值分析理论,对传统生态足迹模型加以改进,同时将人类劳务纳入系统评价.改进后的模型仍然从供给与需求角度分析区域消费足迹与承载力,强调区域资源进出口,分析开放系统条件下区域发展状况,并将人类的作用纳入可持续发展评价范畴.以深圳市2006年发展状况为例对改进模型进行实证分析.计算结果显示:研究区域具有48.08ghm2的人均潜在生态承载力;在生物生产账户上存在3.60ghm2的人均生态赤字,需进口来弥补,而在工业产品账户上3.14ghm2的人均盈余,可供出口;具有约4.87ghm2的人均净承载力出口,为其他区域的发展做出了贡献;人力资源是深圳市可持续发展的重要保障,至少提供相当5.20ghm2的人均生态承载力;发展高新技术产业、低能耗的清洁工业,产出高能值转换率的产品,实现区域本地产品在能量系统等级的提升,是提升本地承载力的现实途径.结果表明,改进后模型突破了传统生态足迹模型偏生态的弱可持续性评价局限,成为综合反映区域生态经济发展状况的可持续性评价模型.     

基于灰色关联度模型的区域农业生态系统可持续发展水平评价

鉴于农业生态系统与环境、社会、经济、人类等的复杂关系, 该研究从区域角度出发, 分别构建农业生态环境与农业生态经济评价指标体系及评价模型, 并通过农业生态环境-经济发展协调度将二者整合, 评判农业生态系统可持续发展的状况。研究中对生态环境质量及协调度评价结果划分等级, 与GIS结合, 制作成专题地图, 并以江苏省为例进行了实证分析应用。结果表明: 1996-2005年, 江苏省沿江、沿海和两淮经济区农业生态环境质量发展水平高于徐连、宁镇扬和太湖经济区, 大部分经济区生态环境质量等级均有提高, 生态经济发展水平在1996-1999年间呈波动上升后逐年下降, 但仍保持良好或优质协调状态。     

林业资源型城市生态-经济-社会协调发展的定量测度——以黑龙江省伊春市为例

把握城市独特的生态-经济-社会系统协调优化特性是实现林业资源型城市可持续发展的重要前提。研究从生态、经济、社会3个维度构建了林业资源型城市复合系统的测度评价指标体系,应用熵值法、耦合协调度模型,采用2005-2018年时段生态、经济、社会数据,对伊春协调发展状况进行实证测度评价,运用障碍度模型分析影响系统协调发展的主要因素,采用GM （1,1）灰色预测模型进行发展预测。结果表明：（1）综合发展指数呈上升态势,促进生态-经济-社会综合发展的主要动能历经了从生态到经济,再到生态为主要动力的发展过程,三个子系统发展水平呈趋同态势,推动三维系统的均衡协同是未来发展的重要方向;（2）三维系统耦合度稳定在较高水平,系统间相互依赖、相互作用程度较高,协调度呈波动上升,实现了由勉强协调、经济滞后发展向良好协调、同步发展的转变,协调状态趋向良好;（3）三维系统中社会子系统对协调发展的障碍度最大;人口自然增长率、建成区绿化覆盖率、GDP增长率、第三产业就业人数比重4个指标是制约近期协调发展的主要障碍因子;（4）2019-2030年,生态、经济、社会子系统发展指数及协调度的预测值均呈上升态势,生态-经济-社会复合系统将向更高级的协调发展状态演进,经济发展将再次成为促进生态-经济-社会综合发展的主要动力;加强生态建设,引领生态创新,大力发展生态经济,提高社会发展水平,着力降低障碍因子对协调发展的阻力作用,实现生态-经济-社会的联动健康发展是伊春未来重要的努力方向。     

Assessing regional sustainable development through an integration of nonlinear principal component analysis and Gram Schmidt orthogonalization

The regional sustainable development level (SDL), sustainability of regional development (SRD) and system coordination (SC) make up the triangular truss of regional sustainable development assessment, but it is debated how should traditional practice best weight and calculate the whole sustainable development system level. The Bohai Rim, covering three provinces and two municipalities in China, lies in a region that is sensitive to profound conflict between socioeconomic development and environment pollution in the process of sustainable development. Considering the defects of traditional models and the multidimensionality of regional sustainability issues, we proposed an integrated model of nonlinear principal component analysis and Gram Schmidt orthogonalization and presented a novel regional sustainable development assessment method and framework from three perspectives for the society–economy–environment system of the Bohai Rim region. The results show that: (a) the integration of nonlinear principal component analysis and Gram Schmidt orthogonalization can well remedy the defects of traditional methods and provide a more objective conceptual framework; (b) the sustainability of regional development and system coordination models graphically demonstrate the essence and connotation of a dynamic sustainable development system; (c) the empirical study demonstrated that the Bohai Rim region has experienced a distinct development period in which the SRD experienced a steady decline and the SDL and SC generally increased; (d) the coordination ability can be improved by a decline in the environmental sustainability, which reveals the importance of environment subsystem optimization; and (e) the weight distribution of variables demonstrates that the most significant factors affecting sustainable development are the indicators from the dimensions of people's standard of living, economic structure and environmental pollution. This study enriches the sustainable development assessment theory and methodology, and lays the foundation for further sustainable development research in the Bohai Rim region.     

我国农业系统可持续发展协调度分析

农业系统可持续协调发展作为一种发展理念已成为共识,受到我国政府高度重视。采用2004—2015年我国农业生产面板数据,运用熵值法、探索性空间数据分析等方法分析我国农业系统可持续发展协调度情况。研究结果表明:(1)2004—2015年我国各省(市、自治区)农业各子系统可持续能力之间协调度处于不稳定变动态势,且其协调度值较低。(2)从协调度分布来看,协调度处于"比较协调"和"协调"的省(市、自治区)主要分布在我国的东部和东南部地区,其余大多数省(市、自治区)农业各子系统可持续能力之间的协调度处于"不协调"。(3)从空间自相关性来看,各省(市、自治区)农业各子系统可持续能力之间协调度呈正的全局自相关性且相关程度逐渐增大,而大多数省(市、自治区)农业各子系统可持续能力之间协调度的局部自相关性不显著,且其农业各子系统可持续能力之间协调度空间极化不明显,处于较低水平均衡状态。从时空维度、空间相关性方面分析农业各子系统可持续能力之间协调度,为提高我国农业系统可持续发展水平提供政策建议。     

Interaction characteristics and development pattern of sustainability system in BHR (Bohai Rim) and YRD (Yangtze River) regions,China

The well-run structure, function and dynamics of complex regional sustainability system are critical for maintaining regional sustainability stability, so exploring the interaction characteristics and development pattern of the system should be considerably significant. Based on the new comprehensive index system of sustainability system, the indices of social, economic and eco-environmental dimensions and nine thematic indices are firstly presented for BHR (Bohai Rim) and YRD (Yangtze River) regions during the period 2001–2010, and then the regional sustainability changes are further tracked by regional sustainability index (RSI) and regional coordination index (RCI). Furthermore, we mainly focus on the dynamic interaction characteristics and propose green development index (GDI) to reflect the development pattern of BHR and YRD from the perspective of taking all indicators into account. The study results show that: the average annual growth rates of the indices of social, economic and eco-environmental dimensions of the BHR region are 10.00%, 19.11% and 0.37% during the study period, while the ones of YRD region are 7.32%, 20.25% and 0.46%, respectively, demonstrating that economic progress is the fastest-improving pillar for RSI of the two regions; the standard deviations of the indices of three dimensions that can construct a triangle diagram and the amount of that failed to construct are both decreasing from 2001 to 2012, showing that the RCI of two regions have made some progresses; BHR have stayed in some positions where eco-environmental level gradually decreases (from 0.50 to 0.45) with the progression of socioeconomic situations (from 0.20 to 0.50), while BHR in a position where eco-environmental level gradually increases (from 0.53 to 0.57) with the progression of socioeconomic situations (from 0.25 to 0.55), revealing dynamic interaction characteristics, and then in their evolution trajectories, YRD has been principally at the intermediate sustainable development stage while BHR always at the potentially unsustainable one; the green social or economic development degree, associated with the uneven resource utilization and eco-environment occupancy among provinces, should contribute most to regional development pattern. The study guides a direction where the policy makers need to improve in regional sustainability management.     

Study on the interaction and relation of society,economy and environment based on PCA–VAR model: As a case study of the Bohai Rim region,China

Ongoing success throughout regional development is contingent on maintaining the function, quality and harmony progress in society, economy and environment domains, so exploring the interaction and relation among them should be considerable significant. The model by coupling principal component analysis and vector autoregressive, which relate the aggregated values and dynamic analysis among factors, is proposed to achieve the qualitative and quantitative analysis of interaction and relation among society, economy and environment subsystem, providing a framework to conceptualize the influences among their changes and simulate the future scenarios in the Bohai Rim region. The impulse response analysis and variance decomposition of vector autoregressive method, in particular, permit dynamic interaction between every two systems and display clear decomposition of contribution for each change, respectively. This study results show that: there is a virtuous circle of promotion between economic growth and social progress no matter which is regarded as the endogenous variable during the study period, and yet the negative effect to environmental changes had been produced; what the improvement of social and environmental situation need most might be advancing its own progress; it is also reflected that the entire complicated system walk on the path of unsustainable development due to the evident disequilibrium of three subsystems; and the scenario analysis results obviously tell that in order to attain coordinated development, the annual growth rate of 12% to 16% of overall environmental level should be anticipated along with 8% of social and economic level improve. The study guide future possibilities for relatively more harmonious interconnections among social, economic and the environmental development.     

Complexity of free energy landscapes of peptides revealed by nonlinear principal component analysis

Employing the recently developed hierarchical nonlinear principal component analysis (NLPCA) method of Saegusa et al. (Neurocomputing 2004;61:57-70 and IEICE Trans Inf Syst 2005;E88-D:2242-2248), the complexities of the free energy landscapes of several peptides, including triglycine, hexaalanine, and the C-terminal beta-hairpin of protein G, were studied. First, the performance of this NLPCA method was compared with the standard linear principal component analysis (PCA). In particular, we compared two methods according to (1) the ability of the dimensionality reduction and (2) the efficient representation of peptide conformations in low-dimensional spaces spanned by the first few principal components. The study revealed that NLPCA reduces the dimensionality of the considered systems much better, than did PCA. For example, in order to get the similar error, which is due to representation of the original data of beta-hairpin in low dimensional space, one needs 4 and 21 principal components of NLPCA and PCA, respectively. Second, by representing the free energy landscapes of the considered systems as a function of the first two principal components obtained from PCA, we obtained the relatively well-structured free energy landscapes. In contrast, the free energy landscapes of NLPCA are much more complicated, exhibiting many states which are hidden in the PCA maps, especially in the unfolded regions. Furthermore, the study also showed that many states in the PCA maps are mixed up by several peptide conformations, while those of the NLPCA maps are more pure. This finding suggests that the NLPCA should be used to capture the essential features of the systems.     

种养系统可持续发展指数的空间格局及其演变趋势——以山东省为例

农业生产专业化、集约化背景下,种养分离越发严重,畜禽粪便排放与环境之间矛盾日益突出,农业可持续发展面临重大挑战.本研究以山东省为例,基于1999-2015年种养系统投入产出资料,利用能值的方法,定量分析了山东省域及市域种养系统可持续发展指数的空间格局及其演变趋势.结果表明:1999-2015年,山东省种养系统的可持续性减弱.可持续发展指数呈极显著下降趋势,2015年较1999年下降了22.0%;净能值产出率和环境负载率均呈极显著增加趋势,单位经济投入获得的利益显著增加,同时种养生产对环境的压力明显加大,这主要与电力、复合肥、农业机械等工业资源投入量的增加密切相关.山东省各地市种养系统可持续发展水平具有差异.大部分地市种养系统的可持续发展指数较高,而沿海地区(威海、烟台)和工业城市(淄博)则较低.同时,各地市种养系统的可持续发展态势也具有差异.鲁中和鲁南地区可持续性逐年减弱,鲁北地区可持续性逐年增强.以2015年为本底数据进行情景分析,发现种养高度结合(100%粪便有机肥替代化肥)情景的可持续发展指数可达8.4,是种养结合现状(30%粪便有机肥替代化肥)的2.6倍.     

城市可持续发展新型定量研究方法进展

城市体现了集约化的发展方式,以仅占陆地3%的面积承载了世界一多半的人口,因此城市是人类社会可持续发展的主阵地,城市可持续发展是区域可持续发展的重要实践。研究试图从可持续发展的基本内涵着手,聚焦于城市尺度的研究,梳理了相关理论和概念演变历程,着重对新型定量方法——评价指标体系法、复杂系统建模、资源环境可持续性探索等进行综述。研究发现指标体系法常用于传统的城市可持续发展评估,大多是针对表象的分析,隔离了系统内部的组织关联,对系统机理探索不够。资源环境对人类社会的发展起到基础支撑作用,从资源环境可持续性出发研究可持续发展诞生了一些较为创新的方法,但研究集中在描述人类对自然的压力和影响,而对于自然对人类的反馈以及人对自然的积极改造探索不足,也很难直接表达系统整体的可持续性。弹性思维和复杂系统科学近年来被多次用于解释城市运行的灰箱模型,但研究稍浅。研究提出可将弹性思维和复杂系统科学结合起来,借助数据科学和计算科学的新兴方法,分析城市的可持续发展,深入探索可持续性的科学表达和深层机理,为解决复杂的城市问题提供科学指导,为城市可持续发展提供理论依据。     

Urgency,development stage and coordination degree analysis to support differentiation management of water pollution emission control and economic development in the eastern coastal area of China

The eastern coastal areas of China have high-density population, developed society and economy, and large water pollution emissions. How to reduce water pollution and realize the coordinated development of the economy and environment has become the national focus. Effective environmental policies should consider regional differences in development stage and sustainability performance. Here, we first analyzed the water pollution emissions intensity of the eastern coastal areas of China and the urgency of emissions reduction using 8-year environmental statistics from 2003 to 2010. We characterized development stages of the eastern coastal areas based on the relationships between water pollution emissions intensity and economic development. Further, we built a coordination degree index of economic development and water environment protection as a measure of sustainability. Results show that water pollution emissions intensity decreases as the economy grows from 2003 to 2010. The less-developed regions have a better coordination degree than some more-developed regions, especially those most-developed ones (e.g., Shanghai show more pressures on long-term sustainability than Hebei). The less-developed regions should take advantage of economic growth to invest more advanced environment protection technologies. The more-developed regions need to upgrade its economic structures and municipal infrastructures. Overall, the study provided a comprehensive approach to understand regional difference in development stage and sustainability performance in the eastern coastal region of China as well as the need of different environmental policies to reduce water pollution emissions.