区域经济-环境复合生态系统协调发展动态评价——以连云港为例

经济与环境协调发展评价是发展中国家可持续发展领域研究的热点问题。目前协调评价的模型取得了新的进展,但在应用方面多集中在现状评价,预测的案例较少;另外现有的研究多以经济子系统的发展水平与环境子系统的发展水平进行协调性评价,忽略了发展潜力这一重要变量。以连云港为分析案例,把发展潜力作为重要变量与发展水平变量相结合计算得到的综合发展指数纳入经济与环境协调评价模型中,并尝试根据系统历史与现状协调发展的演变规律运用GM(1,1)灰色模型预测系统未来的协调发展状态。现状评价与未来的预测结果表明:(1)1996—1999年连云港经济与环境系统从低级共生向环境资源的粗放利用转变;(2)2000—2006年,经济与环境的关系进入快速调整期,经济-环境复合生态系统综合发展指数不断增强,协调程度较上一阶段变化稳定;(3)到2007—2009年,环境对经济的限制作用将又逐渐显现;(4)2010—2015年,经济-环境复合生态系统整体协调度和综合发展指数都相应处于快速上升阶段。综合来看,1999年以后连云港经济-环境复合生态系统的协调度均处于0°以下,说明连云港在经济快速发展的初期往往是以环境破坏为代价的,因此在以后的发展中应主要处理好经济发展与环境保护的速度和公平问题。

A dynamic assessment for the coordination between economic development and the environment: a case study of Lianyungang, China

Assessing the coordination between the economic development and the environment is a key to the sustainable development of developing countries. Most of the new progresses in modeling the coordination are applied in evaluating the status quo, rather than in predictions. Furthermore, most existing studies are focusing on balancing the current economic development and the environment, neglecting the important factor-the development potential. Therefore, this paper presents the use of Composite Development Index (CDI), which is calculated from not only the current development status, but also the development potential, in the modeling of the economic-environmental coordination. Using the development of Lianyungang as an example, this research also predicted the future coordination between economic development and environment based on the observed development status and the coordination, using a GM(1,1) gray model. The results show (1) the economic-environmental system in Lianyungang changed from the original symbiotic mode to high consumption in environmental resources during 1996 and 1999; (2) 2000-2006 was characterized by a rapid adjustment between the economic development and the environment, with continued increases in CDI and a stable level of coordination; (3) the limits of the environment on economic development will recur between 2007 and 2009; and (4) from 2010 to 2015, both the level of coordination between economic development and environment and CDI will have a rapid increase. Overall, after 1999, the degree of coordination between the economic system and the environment in Lianyungang is below zero, indicating a fast economic development at the expense of the environment, and hence highlighting the needs to balance the future economic development and environmental conservation in the area.