基于元指标理论的庆阳区域可持续发展研究

对庆阳各县(区)1990年以来区域可持续发展的时空演变规律及特征进行了综合研究。首先基于元指标理论,构建了庆阳县域可持续发展评价指标体系及综合评价模型,对庆阳各县(区)1990年以来的区域可持续发展状况进行了综合评价及分析。之后根据评价结果,使用重心位移分析法与GIS技术,对庆阳区域可持续发展的空间结构进行了分析。结果表明:1990—2008年,庆阳的区域可持续发展综合水平总体上是在逐渐增强,但这种增强的主要拉动力是经济的快速增长与社会的迅速进步,是以牺牲资源和环境为代价的,这必将最终导致区域可持续发展状况的全面恶化,目前西峰、庆城等部分县区的区域可持续发展综合水平在2005年后已经出现了下降的趋势;1990—2008年,庆阳区域可持续发展持续性重心总体上是向南移动,区域可持续发展协调性重心与综合水平重心的波动较大,反映出各县区的区域可持续发展状况总体上不均衡、不稳定。

Study on regional sustainable development in Qingyang based on the theory of meta index

We analyzed the characters of temporal and spatial evolvement of sub-regional sustainable development in Qingyang since 1990.First of all,based on the theory of meta index,we proposed an indicators’ system and a synthetic assessment model,which were used to assess the regional sustainable development on county level in Qingyang since 1990.After that,based on the method of gravity center shift and GIS,we analyzed the historical evolvement of spatial structure of regional sustainable development in Qingyang since 1990.The outcome showed that the integrated sustainability as a whole increased gradually from 1990 to 2008,where the driving force for increasing was due to the rapid growing of the economy and society along with the cost of abundant resources consumption and ecosystem degradation.The integrated sustainability would decrease finally under this condition.The integrated sustainability in some counties began to decrease after 2005,such as Xifeng and Qingcheng.The gravity center of sustainability of regional sustainable development moved to the south from 1990 to 2008.The gravity center of coordination and integrated sustainability of regional sustainable development undulated obviously from 1990 to 2008,indicating that the regional sustainable development was unbalance and unsteady in Qingyang.