省级尺度工业碳排放影响因素及碳转移格局

随着全球气候变暖以及区域间产业关联程度加深,产业转型升级和产业转移所引起的碳排放空间重塑成为低碳研究的主要领域之一。利用碳排放清单法及环境效应分解模型,估算中国工业碳排放量变化及其影响因素,同时分析产业转移背景下省际间碳排放的转移格局,以探讨区域节能减排与发展平衡的有效策略。研究表明：2005-2019年期间,中国的工业碳排放量格局一直是以环渤海地区为单核心,邻近的山东、浙江、内蒙古逐渐增加;省级尺度层面,产业规模对工业产业发展引起的环境效应强度最大,产业结构的作用相对较弱;工业碳排放的空间转移主要呈现由沿海区域向内地转移,转出高耗能产业碳排放量最多的省份是山西、山东、辽宁、上海,而高耗能产业碳排放量转入最多的省份是新疆、安徽、山东;碳排放的转入、转出并不与各省经济发展水平的位置完全等同,经济发达省份也会因能源需求或国家战略政策的影响,呈现某段时间内工业碳排放的转入。结论有助于为全局视角下区域间横向联合碳减排政策的制定提供决策依据。     

产业集聚对雾霾污染与生态效率的非线性影响及溢出效应

新常态背景下，"降霾增效"是促进城市协调可持续发展的重要保障。基于2008-2017年我国269个地级市面板数据，利用ArcGIS空间分析、EBM-DEA、空间杜宾等模型，探究雾霾污染与生态效率的时空演化格局及产业集聚对其非线性影响及空间溢出效应。结果显示：（1）我国城市雾霾污染具有"块状"与"集群分布"特征，并呈现以京津冀城市群为中心的"核心-边缘"扩散模式；城市生态效率呈东部 > 中部 > 西部依次递减态势，其H-H型城市主要分布在东部沿海地区；（2）产业集聚是"双刃剑"，其对雾霾污染与生态效率的影响存在显著的"U"型关系，即产业集聚每提升1%，雾霾污染和生态效率相应降低0.1388%和0.1409%，产业集聚平方项每提升1%则相应提升0.0188%和0.0113%；（3）产业集聚进一步提升对本地与邻近城市的雾霾污染具有较强的正向空间溢出效应，地方政府应采取联防联控的污染治理策略，构建长效环境治理合作机制；（4）产业集聚规模对雾霾污染和生态效率的影响表现出一定的区域异质性，应设计差异化的产业发展策略，为城市"降霾增效"提供支撑；通过重构权重矩阵、替换核心解释变量与设置滞后变量，证明了上述主要结论的稳健性。当前我国正处于工业文明向生态文明转换的关键阶段，期望本研究能为区域可持续发展提供参考。     

中国区域间隐含碳排放转移

利用投入产出模型,对消费视角下碳排放的核算方法及国际贸易中隐含碳排放转移的研究是当前国际学术界碳排放研究的焦点问题之一。在梳理国内外相关研究进展的基础上,利用区域间投入产出模型构建了区域间隐含碳排放转移的核算方法,并计算了1997年和2007年中国8个主要区域间隐含的碳排放转移及其变化。结果显示,不管是在规模还是空间上,中国区域间隐含碳排放转移都发生了很大变化,总体上呈现向西部地区延伸的趋势,尤其是西北地区成为最大的碳排放承接区域。而京津和东南沿海地区始终是主要的碳转出地区,尤其是东南沿海地区因出口而导致的碳排放向中西部地区转移的增加最为明显。因此,调整东部地区的出口结构,优化投资和消费结构,避免落后淘汰产能通过区域转移进一步发展,提高节能技术的应用是我国节能减排工作的重要内容。     

我国农村居民生活能源碳排放的时空特征分析

随着生活质量的提高,我国农村居民生活能源消费呈现大幅增长的趋势,成为碳排放增长的新源泉。估算了我国30个省区2001—2013年的农村居民生活能源碳排放,采用碳基尼系数、Arc GIS技术分析了中国省级尺度农村居民生活能源碳排放的时空特征,并利用STIRPAT模型辨明了农村居民生活能源碳排放的主要影响因素。结果表明:(1)2001—2013年农村居民直接生活能源碳排放量和间接生活能源碳排放量分别增长了7.65%、9.16%。(2)东部、中部、西部地区的碳基尼系数呈下降趋势,说明各区域农村居民人均生活能源碳排放量的区域差异总体均呈缩小趋势。(3)2001—2013年间,处于我国农村居民人均直接生活能源碳排放高水平地区的空间格局分布相对较为稳定,而对于人均间接生活能源碳排放来说,处于低水平地区的空间格局分布较为稳定。(4)农村人口规模、农民人均纯收入、农村居民生活消费支出、青壮年人口比重对农村居民生活能源碳排放量具有促进作用,而农村居民能源消费结构对其具有减缓作用,且北方农村居民生活能源碳排放量明显高于南方。(5)从环境Kuznets曲线假说出发,经济发展是促使我国农村居民生活能源碳排放Kuznets曲线存在拐点的重要因素。     

Does Industrial Waste Reuse Bring Dual Benefits of Economic Growth and Carbon Emission Reduction?: Evidence of Incorporating the Indirect Effect of Economic Growth in China

This article employs panel data from 28 Chinese provinces over the period 1999–2011 to analyze the effects of industrial waste reuse (IWR) on carbon emissions. The extant studies mainly consider the direct effects that individual firms garner from IWR while ignoring other possible indirect effects in a more macroscopic context. Considering this research void, this article examines the potential indirect effects of IWR on carbon emissions through economic growth as the mediator. The results show that the direct effect of IWR on carbon emissions is negative and significant, but the positive indirect effect, through economic growth, is present. From the perspective of total effect, IWR is beneficial for both economic growth and carbon emission reduction (CER). However, the benefits for CER are mitigated when the economy is less developed, because the emission reduction could be compromised through the indirect effect of economic growth. Nevertheless, the indirect effect on compensating carbon emission is decreased with an increase in the economic growth. When the growth reaches a higher level, the indirect effect of IWR will alter to contribute to CER. The turning point in China is around 7,000 to 9,000 renminbi gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in 1999 constant price.     

Dynamic Modeling of a Man–Land System in Response to Environmental Catastrophe

A compatible relationship between “man” and “land” is the essence of regional sustainable development. In this article VENSIM PLE is used to set up a system dynamics (SD) model of the regional man–land system of Xiangfan, Hubei Province, China. The model is used to simulate dynamic behaviors of society and economy in the face of environmental catastrophe, in order to explore dynamic response among subsystems in man–land systems, and to research mechanisms of regional sustainable development. The model is also used to forecast impacts from the south-to-north water transfer project in China on the environment, society, and economy within a time span of 50 years. The model is further used to verify the effects of suggested regulatory policies. The simulation results show counterintuitive outcomes. The most serious impact on Xiangfan caused by the water transfer project would be on economic growth, not on environment quality. However, if a series of regulatory policies were carried out in advance of the water project's construction, the trends of concern could be effectively eased. SD provides tools for precisely understanding complex man–land systems, which always seem counterintuitive. However, there still exist limitations and disadvantages in the model that must be overcome. It is believed that the next logical step in deriving better dynamic models of man–land systems is to integrate SD with other advanced algorithms or technologies.     

Estimating quantity and equity of carbon emission from roads based on an improved LCA approach: the case of China

Purpose

Carbon emission from roads is an important contributor of a nation’s greenhouse gas emission that causes climate change. However, the existing life cycle assessment (LCA) analysis of road carbon emissions focus on project-level, ignoring regional differences. Significant challenges remain in developing regional road’s carbon emission mitigation strategies. This study estimates the quantity of carbon emissions from roads in China and calculated the regional equity of road carbon emissions.

Methods

An improved LCA approach, which considered the regional difference of raw materials’ carbon emissions, carbon emissions caused by traffic jam and road category, was applied to calculate the quantity of carbon emissions of roads. Sensitive analysis was conducted to find the key influential factors. Gini coefficient was used to calculate the equity degree of carbon emissions by roads based on the LCA results. The decomposition model of Gini coefficient is applied to analyze the causes of carbon emission differences.

Results

The total national carbon emissions by roads in 2019 increased by 2.2 times compared to 2009. Carbon emission from roads in the operation phase increased from 62% in 2009 to 83% in 2019. The functional unit for expressway in this study ranging from 1646 to 1794 t CO₂e/km in 31 provinces. An estimated uncertainty of plus or minus 4% of the traffic flow allocation between expressway and other roads makes an increase of 38% or a decrease of 15% of the life cycle emission. The overall Gini coefficient of carbon emissions from roads in China is under the warning line of 0.4. Outer inequity between regions contributes 88.83% of the whole inequity and the most developed three regions contribute 66.23%.

Conclusions

Large quantity of road construction in the past in China makes the burden of carbon emission transfer from the construction phase to the operation phase. Regional differences of raw materials’ carbon emissions, traffic jam, and road hierarchy are important factors influencing the LCA-based estimation of road carbon emission. To improve the national equity degree of road carbon emission, quota allocation of road carbon emission rights between regions and cross-regional carbon emission reduction policies would help.

     

劳动力转移和森林管护水平对森林碳密度的影响——基于福建253个村的实证研究

森林生态系统具有重要的固碳功能,有效的森林管理是提升碳密度的重要方式。随着农村劳动力转移,森林管护水平也随之变化,进而可能影响森林碳密度。为了厘清劳动力转移和森林管护水平对森林碳密度的作用机理,以提升森林碳密度。利用福建5县（区）253个村1999年与2009年的林业二类调查数据和入村调研数据,采用转换因子连续函数法评价了森林碳密度,再运用层次回归模型分析了劳动转移对森林碳密度的影响,并检验了森林管护水平对二者的中介作用。结果表明：（1）10年间森林碳密度普遍提升,但区域差异明显;空间上森林碳密度呈由南向北递增,提升率呈由南向北递减。（2）劳动力转移对森林碳密度有显著促进作用,而森林管护水平对森林碳密度有显著削弱作用,并对劳动力转移与森林碳密度之间的关系具有显著中介效应。（3）劳动力特征、采伐方式及森林自然禀赋等因素,主要通过生计依赖、生境状况和生物量对森林碳密度产生显著影响。据此提出：适当减少对森林的人为干扰,丰富林农生计来源,转变林业经营目标,科学采伐成熟和过熟林,保护天然起源林,丰富人工林树种等政策建议。     

Does civil environmental protection force the growth of China's industrial green productivity? Evidence from the perspective of rent-seeking

Based on the decision analysis of heterogeneous enterprise between green technology innovation and rent-seeking, this paper formulates the Hybrid-Luenberger index considering undesirable outputs and studies difference in the response of regional industrial green productivity to civil environmental protection. Empirical study on China's regional industrial data from 1997 to 2011 shows that: (1) Compared with the intensity of environmental pollution and other passive environmental protection incentives, the public are more sensitive to per capita income level, education quality, health concern and other rational environmental protection incentives. (2) The increase in the civil environmental protection effect promotes the industrial green technology innovation, while the rent-seeking activities have a significant negative effect on green productivity. (3) The civil environmental protection of the eastern coastal area has more significant effect on the industrial green productivity compared with that of the central and western inland area. (4) As the quantile of the industrial green productivity increases from the low point to high level, the positive effects of the civil environmental protection on the industrial green productivity turn to be more significant, and the rational environmental protection have positive and negative effects on high and low quantile of the industrial green productivity, respectively, which proves that the “Potter Hypothesis” can only be established on the condition that producers are approaching to the technology frontier.     

Examining the relationships between carbon emissions and land supply in China

China's CO₂ reduction is crucial in mitigating global and regional climate change. Land resources used by industrial enterprises in China come from official land transactions, which indirectly affects carbon emissions. The quantitative examination of the relationship between land supply and carbon emissions can provide potential pathways and strategies for regional carbon emission reduction. For this purpose, we innovatively integrated land transaction data from China's industrial enterprise and carbon emission databases. Using this integrated database, we estimated the carbon emission changes from land transactions from 2006 to 2013, focusing on the transformation of agricultural land into industrial land in China's 331 cities. The results showed that land transactions could cause high carbon emissions in China. The industry with the largest land transaction area during the study period was the production and supply of electric power, steam, and hot water, and the one with the highest increase in carbon emissions from land transactions was the smelting and pressing of ferrous metals. By further examining the typology of the relationships between land transactions and carbon emissions for these cities, a scientific reference for pathways for reducing carbon emissions in cities was generated. Specifically, the results showed that cities with high land supply and carbon emissions were mainly resource-based or economic priority cities for development. For these cities, the entry threshold of energy-intensive industries must be raised, and the supply of land for clean energy enterprises should be increased. In contrast, cities with low land supply but high emissions primarily had depleting resources, high ecological and environmental pressure, and relatively lagging economic development. Correspondingly, the government should use the land supply to guide industries to reduce their dependence on traditional fossil energy. Regardless of the type of city in terms of relationships between carbon emissions and land transactions, indicators of carbon emission intensity should be included and carefully considered in land use planning and land transaction processes in the future.     

基于Meta分析的中国湖沼湿地生态系统服务价值转移研究

Meta分析价值转移方法作为资源价值评估的一种有效方法,在国外已经有大量的实证研究出现,但是在国内相应的实证研究非常稀少,有关该方法在湖沼湿地生态系统服务价值评估的应用研究还尚未见报道。通过收集有关中国湖沼湿地生态系统服务价值评估的实证研究文献的价值评估结果,建立价值转移数据库,应用Meta分析和多元回归分析方法构建中国湖沼湿地生态系统服务的Meta分析价值转移模型,并对该模型用于样本外价值转移的有效性做出评估,探讨Meta分析价值转移方法在中国湖沼湿地生态系统服务价值评估领域的可应用性及发展前景。研究结果表明:(1)在样本文献中,通常洪水调蓄和水源涵养服务是湖沼湿地提供的经济价值最高的生态系统服务,而水质净化服务的经济价值最低;(2)湖沼湿地面积、生态系统服务受益人口数量、不同生态系统服务之间的价值差异以及不同价值评估方法的使用会影响湖沼湿地生态系统服务价值的变化;(3)Meta分析价值转移模型用于样本外价值转移的有效性检验结果显示,样本外价值转移的转移误差范围在0.09%—234.61%之间,平均转移误差为19.99%,在自然资源价值转移的可接受误差范围内,因此Meta分析价值转移方法是评估湿地生态系统服务价值的一种可行且快速的方法。     

东北三省“水-能源-碳”系统仿真模拟——基于系统动力学模型

水资源和能源消费量及碳排放制约区域发展水平，也影响区域生态环境质量，区域多要素资源耦合作用与协同管理成为近年来的研究热点。水资源、能源和碳排放三个系统通过不同的流程相互连接，探究"水-能源-碳"系统耦合关系，是区域探索绿色协调发展的重要基础。以东北三省为研究对象，采用系统动力学研究方法，从自然、社会、经济三个维度来探索水-能源-碳三者的关联模式。以2001-2019年东北三省的水资源、能源、碳排放现状为基础数据，梳理三个子系统的耦合关系，并对未来二十年其发展变化仿真模拟。结果表明：（1）水资源、能源、碳排放在未来二十年均呈现增长的趋势，水资源增长趋势最快，在仿真情景5下，与2020年相比2040年水资源、能源消费量和碳排放量分别增长230.4%、210.7%和36.9%；（2）决策变量对"水-能源-碳"系统的影响程度依次是清洁节能>产业调控>国内生产总值（GDP）增长率，随着GDP增长率升高，水资源和能源消耗量、碳排放量升增加，随着产业转型升级，居民意识提高及清洁能源增加，水资源和能源消耗量、碳排放量减少。在综合调控情景下，未来水资源消耗量高于基础情景，能源消耗量和碳排放量则得到了良好的控制；（3）2020-2040年，水资源、能源消费量和碳排放量呈现强相关性，纽带关系呈协同优化方向改善，供需缺口减小，有效的缓解了环境压力；（4）情景3的能源结构调整和居民意识的提高可有效降低碳排放量，情景4产业结构的调整对水资源和能源的影响较为明显。情景5权衡经济发展与节能节水以减少碳排放，严格按照"双碳"目标，将水资源、能源向较高质量发展的可持续发展方向推进，更具参考性。研究结果有利于东北三省"水-能源-碳"系统可持续发展，促进经济发展水平。     

中国工业生物技术发展态势分析与展望

现代生物技术逐渐进入大规模产业化阶段,全球生物经济快速发展,工业生物技术作为生物经济的支柱,支撑生物制造、生物能源、生物农业、生物医药、生物环保和生物服务等产业发展。分析和展现了中国近期在工业生物技术领域基础研究、应用研究、技术转化与产业发展方面取得的进展和成就,反映了中国工业生物技术发展的现状与趋势,并提出了未来发展的挑战与机遇。     

中国区域间贸易碳转移特征及其对碳中和的影响

优化贸易模式对实现"碳达峰,碳中和"这一中长期计划至关重要。基于多区域投入产出模型和碳生态承载力模型,分析了我国2017年30个省份(本研究不含中国港澳台和西藏的统计数据)碳足迹和碳生态承载力剩余量的空间分布特征。研究表明:(1)经济或人口总量较大的省份(如广东、江苏、河南等)碳足迹较大,而万元GDP碳足迹较大的省份主要分布在西部和东北地区,虚拟碳主要是向经济发达的省份转移。(2)总体上,中国的区域间贸易不具备碳中和特征,但就地区而言,区域间贸易使得山西、内蒙古、辽宁、宁夏、新疆地区碳足迹有所降低,但碳中和程度较低(<20%);就行业而言,建筑业贸易的碳中和特征最为明显,特别是在东北三省。(3)经济富裕的几个省份碳减排压力较大,如:北京、天津等地的碳生态承载力出现赤字,而黑龙江、河南、吉林、山东碳生态承载力剩余量超过10×10⁸ t,碳减排压力较小。未来在制定相关政策时,应综合考虑省际间碳的转移特征,合理分配碳排放定额,以保障碳排放权交易市场的顺利运行。     

China’s water footprint by province,and inter-provincial transfer of virtual water

Water shortages and the uneven distribution of water resources restrict China’s sustainable development. The concepts of virtual water and water footprints provide a new approach to alleviate regional shortages of Chinese water resources by the inter-provincial allocation of commercial water resources. In this study, an interregional input-output model was applied to quantitatively estimate the water footprint of each province in China and to quantify the inter-provincial transfer of virtual water. The results indicated that there was considerable diversity in the water footprints of the various provinces. Provinces with larger populations and greater GDP had larger water footprints, and developed regions had higher proportions of external water footprints. From the perspective of final demand, local consumption was the main factor driving the water footprints of these provinces. From the perspective of sectoral structure, the agricultural water footprint had a larger proportion in these provinces. The transfer of virtual water in China did not occur from regions with abundant water resources to those suffering from water shortages, but it generally occurred from west to east, from inland to coastal areas, and from underdeveloped to developed regions. Many water-deficient regions also had large net virtual water exports. Water shortages in China will be alleviated by the enhancement of industrial water-use efficiency in water-deficient regions, the transfer of water-intensive industries to regions with abundant water resources, and the development of tertiary industries with low water consumption.     

Delinking indicators on regional industry development and carbon emissions: Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei economic band case

Based on the two-level Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method and Tapio index, this paper constructed an expanded decomposition model for decoupling elasticity and effort index of industrial carbon emissions, and further quantitatively analyzed the delinking indicators on industry growth and environmental pressures in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) economic band from 1996 to 2010. The results indicate that: (1) together with the rapid economic growth, industrial energy-related carbon emissions in BTH region rose from 44477.43 × 10⁴ t in 1996 to 105602.33 × 10⁴ t in 2006 and then declined to 64426.71 × 10⁴ t in 2010, with an average annual growth rate of 2.94%. Our results also show that carbon emissions in BTH region were dominated by the secondary industry, which accounted for about 80% of total carbon emissions. (2) “Weak decoupling” was the main characteristic during the 9th Five-Year Plan period (1996–2000) and 11th Five-Year Plan period (2006–2010), particularly “strong decoupling” in 2007; while “weak coupling” was the main characteristic during the 10th Five-Year Plan period (2001–2005). (3) The rapid economic growth was the main factor responsible for industrial decoupling blocking. The energy structure and energy intensity made significant contributions to the industrial decoupling progress. The industrial structure effect had varied considerably over the years without showing a clear trend.     

Oxygen transfer modeling and simulations for an industrial continuous airlift fermentor

This article deals with the modeling of the oxygen transfer in an industrial airlift fermentor used for lactic yeast production on whey substrates. The purpose of this study was to improve the understanding of the interactions among the various parameters that govern the oxygen transfer phenomena in this type of fermentor. The reliability of the proposed model is demonstrated. The results of the investigations have been put into practice on the industrial scale and have contributed to monitor better the fermentation process. The model was also used to develop new ways of industrial fermentor design.     

基于meta分析的中国森林生态系统服务价值评估

meta分析作为价值转移方法中最有效的手段之一，已在生态系统服务价值评估中得到了较为广泛的应用。然而国内相关研究的meta回归模型大多依据传统的最小二乘法建立，忽略了原始数据的层次结构特征。通过收集关于中国森林生态系统服务已有实证研究的价值评估结果，建立meta分析数据库；通过面板数据回归方法构建meta回归模型，对模型的价值转移有效性进行评估；在构建的meta回归模型基础上，根据IPCC SRES中的四类情景——A1B、A2、B1、B2，计算中国森林生态系统2010-2100年的生态系统服务价值。研究结果表明：（1）相较基于普通最小二乘法和加权最小二乘法建立的回归模型，基于面板数据回归方法建立的模型平均转移误差最小（11.57%），模型有效性较高，因此为适合本研究的meta回归方法；对于不同价值观察值，转移误差存在较大差异，随着观察值的增大，模型预测值由高估逐渐转变为低估，转移误差趋向减小。（2）基于面板数据回归方法建立的meta回归模型能够有效揭示中国森林生态系统服务的价值转移规律，生态系统服务类型、植被区划、森林面积、森林丰度、人均GDP和铁路长度是中国森林生态系统服务价值的重要影响因素。（3）中国森林生态系统2010-2100年价值变化的情景分析表明，情景A1B和B1下森林面积和生态系统服务总价值持续增加，情景A2下森林面积和生态系统服务总价值持续下降，情景B2下森林面积和生态系统服务总价值先上升后下降；其中情景B1下中国森林生态系统服务总价值增长最大，至2100年达到41.58万亿元，情景B2下价值损失最为显著，至2100年降至22.97万亿元。     

中国老工业城市能源消费碳排放的驱动力分析——以沈阳市为例

开展人为因素对区域生态环境影响作用的量化分析,是国际可持续发展领域的研究热点.本文以典型的老工业城市--沈阳市为例,基于IPCC能源消费碳排放计算方法,对1978-2009年城市能源消费碳排放进行核算,并应用基于Kaya等式和岭回归的STIRPAT模型,对影响碳排放量的人文驱动因素进行时间序列分析.结果表明： 研究期间,沈阳市碳排放变化经历了3个阶段,先缓升再略降随后快速增加,2009年的碳排放总量是1978年的46倍;人口规模是影响沈阳市碳排放量增加的主要驱动因子,碳排放量与人口数量呈同比例变化;城市化显著影响碳排放量,是仅次于人口数量的另一个主要驱动因子;人均GDP与碳排放量呈正相关关系,经济发展与碳排放之间不存在Kuznets曲线假说;能源强度降低即技术进步因素是碳排放量降低的主要因素.     

Environmental regulation and CO2 emissions: Based on strategic interaction of environmental governance

In order to reduce carbon emissions and improve environmental governance, the paper discusses the interactive forms of environmental regulation based on the two-regime spatial Durbin model. The effects of environmental regulation and interactive behavior of environmental regulation on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions are explored by using the spatial lag of X (SLX) model. It is found that there is a diversified competitive behavior in the enforcement of environmental regulation among local governments in China. And the diversified competitive behavior results in the nearby transfer of pollution, which increases local CO₂ emissions. In addition, there is an inverted "U" curve between environmental regulation and CO₂ emissions, and China is still in the "green paradox" stage. Furthermore, it is found that the environmental regulation mainly affects CO₂ emissions through industrial structure and technological progress. Also, there are differences in the spatial spillover effect of environmental regulation due to the existence of regional heterogeneity, and its impact on CO₂ is particularly significant in the western region. The findings indicate that the central government should strengthen targeted supervision and adaptive incentives for local governments to implement environmental regulation so that joint emission reduction can be promoted.