中国老工业城市能源消费碳排放的驱动力分析——以沈阳市为例

开展人为因素对区域生态环境影响作用的量化分析，是国际可持续发展领域的研究热点.本文以典型的老工业城市--沈阳市为例，基于IPCC能源消费碳排放计算方法，对1978-2009年城市能源消费碳排放进行核算，并应用基于Kaya等式和岭回归的STIRPAT模型，对影响碳排放量的人文驱动因素进行时间序列分析.结果表明： 研究期间，沈阳市碳排放变化经历了3个阶段，先缓升再略降随后快速增加，2009年的碳排放总量是1978年的46倍；人口规模是影响沈阳市碳排放量增加的主要驱动因子，碳排放量与人口数量呈同比例变化；城市化显著影响碳排放量，是仅次于人口数量的另一个主要驱动因子；人均GDP与碳排放量呈正相关关系，经济发展与碳排放之间不存在Kuznets曲线假说；能源强度降低即技术进步因素是碳排放量降低的主要因素.

Driving forces of carbon emission from energy consumption in China old industrial cities:A case study of Shenyang City,Northeast China

To quantitatively analyze the effects of anthropogenic factors on regional environmental quality is a hot topic in the field of sustainable development research. Taking the typical old industrial city Shenyang in Northeast China as a case, and by using the IPCC method for calculating carbon emission from energy consumption, this paper estimated the carbon emission from energy consumption in the city in 1978-2009, and a time series analysis on the anthropogenic factors driving this carbon emission was made by the STIRPAT model based upon Kaya equation and ridge regression. In 1978-2009, the carbon emission in the city had a slow increase first, slow decrease then, and a rapid increase thereafter. The total carbon emission in 2009 was 4.6 times of that in 1978. Population growth was the main factor driving the growth of the emission, and there existed an equal proportional variation between the population growth and the carbon emission growth. Urbanization was another main driving factor followed by population growth, and the per capita GDP was positively correlated with the carbon emission. Kuznets curve did not exist for the relationship between economic development and carbon emission in Shenyang. Energy source intensity reduction (representing technology improvement) was the main factor driving the reduction of the total carbon emission.