省级尺度工业碳排放影响因素及碳转移格局

随着全球气候变暖以及区域间产业关联程度加深，产业转型升级和产业转移所引起的碳排放空间重塑成为低碳研究的主要领域之一。利用碳排放清单法及环境效应分解模型，估算中国工业碳排放量变化及其影响因素，同时分析产业转移背景下省际间碳排放的转移格局，以探讨区域节能减排与发展平衡的有效策略。研究表明：2005-2019年期间，中国的工业碳排放量格局一直是以环渤海地区为单核心，邻近的山东、浙江、内蒙古逐渐增加；省级尺度层面，产业规模对工业产业发展引起的环境效应强度最大，产业结构的作用相对较弱；工业碳排放的空间转移主要呈现由沿海区域向内地转移，转出高耗能产业碳排放量最多的省份是山西、山东、辽宁、上海，而高耗能产业碳排放量转入最多的省份是新疆、安徽、山东；碳排放的转入、转出并不与各省经济发展水平的位置完全等同，经济发达省份也会因能源需求或国家战略政策的影响，呈现某段时间内工业碳排放的转入。结论有助于为全局视角下区域间横向联合碳减排政策的制定提供决策依据。

Analysis on influencing factors of industrial carbon emission and carbon transfer pattern at provincial level

With global warming and the deepening inter-regional industrial linkage, the spatial reshaping of carbon emissions caused by industrial transformation and upgrading and industrial transfer has become one of the main areas of low-carbon research field. Using the carbon emission inventory method and the environmental effect decomposition model, this paper estimates the changes in industrial carbon emissions and their influencing factors in various province in China.The inter-provincial carbon emission transfer pattern in the context of industrial transfer is also analyzed to explore effective strategies for regional energy conservation, carbon emission reduction and balanced regional development. Studies have shown that from 2005 to 2019, China''s industrial carbon emission pattern has been based on the Bohai Rim region as the single core, and the neighboring Shandong, Zhejiang and Inner Mongolia gradually increased. At the provincial level, the intensity of the environmental effect caused by industrial scope on industrial development is the greatest, and the role of industrial structure is relatively weak; the spatial transfer of industrial carbon emissions is mainly from the coastal region to the interior, and the provinces with the largest output of carbon emissions from energy-intensive industries are Shanxi, Shandong, Liaoning, and Shanghai, while the provinces with the largest inflow of carbon emissions from energy-intensive industries are Xinjiang, Anhui, and Shandong. The inflow and outflow of carbon emissions are not exactly equivalent to the position of each province''s economic development level; economically developed provinces also present a transfer of industrial carbon emissions in a certain period of time due to energy demand or national strategic policies.This paper explored the role of provinces in the transfer of carbon emissions from domestic industry, and the efforts of carbon reduction in different provinces should match their positions in the supply chain. In recent years, the eastern region with high degree of industrialization, bearing the pressure of carbon emissions from other provinces, has been experiencing a large net outflow of carbon emissions from industries, which can moderately increase carbon sinks in the oceans and forests. For Anhui, Guizhou and other provinces with long-term net inflow of industrial carbon emissions, the transfer of energy-intensive industries should be planned in a reasonable and timely manner to avoid the administration after the contamination.For coal-rich provinces with carbon emissions outflow such as Nei Monggol and Shanxi, it is necessary to improve the access threshold for high-pollution industries and promote the timely transformation of high-carbon industries.The conclusion is helpful to provide decision-making basis for the formulation of inter regional horizontal joint carbon emission reduction policies under the global perspective.