一种城市生态系统现状评价方法及其应用

生态城市建设是未来城市发展的最终趋势。从结构、功能、活动、发展演化规律等方面来看,城市生态系统都可以被看作一个动态变化的系统。将可持续发展理论引入到城市生态系统现状评价中,提出和解释了城市生态系统可持续发展概念;从可持续发展的角度,评价城市生态系统的现状,建立城市生态系统可持续发展评价指标体系。在此基础上,利用集对分析方法,将评价城市生态系统可持续发展水平的多个指标系统合成一个与最优评价集的相对贴近度,用来描述城市生态系统可持续发展水平,并将该方法应用于兰州市城市生态系统现状评价。结果表明,在2004—2010年间,兰州市城市生态系统可持续发展水平呈现折线型关系,而且有明显的陡降现象。具体变化趋势是从2004年的0.5081平缓上升到2005年的0.5581、然后陡降到2006年的0.4073、接着平缓上升直到2009年的0.5010、最后平缓下降到2010年的0.4706。尽管不同时期城市生态系统可持续发展水平有所变化,但是总体来说,一直处在基本可持续发展的水平,协调程度一般;该评价方法能够很好的反映城市生态系统的发展现状,为建设生态城市提供科学依据。     

城市产业生态网络特征与演进规律——以北京市为例

产业生态系统发展规律对于产业转型升级至关重要,对其进行研究也是当前产业生态学的新方向。产业生态系统是指在一定区域内,产业组分以及环境组分之间通过物质交换及能量流动等形成的有机统一整体。产业生态网络则是其各组分之间通过物质流等相互作用构成的生态关系的一种拓扑结构。基于货币型投入产出模型通过物质型转化构建城市尺度产业生态网络,借鉴生态网络分析方法,提出通过循环性、生态效率、上升性3类特征指标判定产业生态网络的演进规律。实证研究了2005—2014年北京市产业生态系统的特征及其演进规律,阐明了其发展的趋势。主要结论是:从趋势分析,北京市产业生态系统循环性、生态效率和上升性有随时间而提升的趋势。其中,循环性和上升性变化趋势一致:总体呈现上升趋势,且2007年数值明显高于其他年份;生态效率总体随年份呈现波浪式增速的趋势;从指数分析:各年份循环指数(FCI)介于0—1之间,表明产业系统的物质循环流量均小于直接流量;A/C指数介于0.187—0.256之间,表明离理论可持续发展状态(0.401)还有相当的距离;生态效率10年提高2.4倍,在2013年已经接近1,到2014年实现大于1的水平,其生态效率已达到这10a间的最优的状态。总体上,北京市产业系统正在向物质循环性、生态效率以及系统上升性逐步提高的方向转型。     

广东省渔业资源可持续利用评价

渔业资源的可持续利用是渔业可持续发展的核心问题,对其可持续利用的评价则是目前世界海洋渔业可持续发展研究的前沿及热点问题.本文以可持续利用的有关理论为基础,构建了适用于广东省渔业资源可持续利用的评价指标体系,应用层次灰色综合评判模型分析了1978-2007年间广东省渔业资源的可持续利用状况.结果表明:渔业资源的可持续利用水平在整体上呈下降趋势,1998年降至最低,仅为1978年的37.3%;最近10年间开始出现波动上升,2007年升至1978年的55.1%.综合评价结果与现实情况较为符合,故认为将层次灰色综合评判模型应用于区域渔业资源可持续利用评价是可行的.     

基于系统演化视角的可持续性评价方法

可持续发展水平的衡量是可持续发展研究的重要内容,它可以为政府的可持续发展决策提供重要的科学依据。现有的可持续性评价方法可分为指标列举法、流量分析法和系统分析法。前两类方法应用广泛,但理论基础较为薄弱,在指标的选取、标准化和赋权等方面存在一定的缺陷。基于系统运行机理的系统分析法尚不多见,但能弥补前两种方法的部分不足,Ulanowicz于2009年提出的演化模型是此类方法的代表。该模型从系统演化角度出发,以网络流为研究对象,以信息论为手段,指出系统的可持续性是系统上升性(效率)和恢复力平衡的结果,并提出了可持续性评价指标R。回顾了现有研究方法的优缺点。介绍了从演化视角分析可持续性的原理和数学模型,可持续发展的阈值范围以及该方法的应用案例。总结了该方法的应用步骤及尚需解决的问题。     

尼泊尔社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力评价及影响因素辨识

“一带一路”沿线部分国家处于生态环境脆弱、社会经济落后状态，开展社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力时空特征评估及关键要素识，对于实现“一带一路”倡议“走出去”战略和绿色丝路建设至关重要。基于社会发展、经济水平、基础设施建设、生态环境、自然灾害风险5个一级指标24个二级指标构建了社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力评价指标体系，利用主成分分析法和结构方程模型评价了2000—2015年尼泊尔县域尺度社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力并分析了其时空分异特征，厘清了影响社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力的关键因素及其影响机制。结果表明：(1)尼泊尔社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力在县域尺度上主要集中在中低和中等恢复力水平，而中高恢复力呈由南向北逐渐降低态势，南部地区以及位于中部发展区的首都加德满都河谷地区恢复力水平相对较高；(2)2000—2015年尼泊尔社会经济-生态复合系统恢复力在不同阶段呈现波动变化状态，2005年恢复力最优，2010和2015年部分区域恢复力降低明显，系统恢复力区域间差异逐步增大；(3)社会发展、经济水平、基础设施、建设生态环境和自然灾害风险对系统恢复力提升的总效应分别为0.99,0.07,0.11...     

北京市住宅建筑生命周期碳足迹

从生命周期角度看,建筑碳足迹与能源和建材生产系统具有密切关系。随着技术的进步和节能政策的推进,中国能源的生产和使用,以及建材生产过程中的环境排放都随着时间在持续降低,这将间接地影响到建筑的环境表现。依据1990—2010年期间每5a的中国能源与建材生命周期清单数据,对北京市20年间住宅建筑系统开展生命周期评价和碳足迹核算,以揭示北京市住宅建筑系统的环境负荷变化特征。结果表明,北京市住宅建筑生命周期碳足迹随时间推移呈现降低趋势,主要来自能源系统和建材生产系统的碳减排贡献。不同结构建筑的碳足迹尽管有差异,但也呈现了相似的下降趋势。从生命周期阶段看,建筑碳足迹主要体现在建筑使用阶段和建材生产阶段。尽管建筑使用阶段的节能对于降低建筑生命周期碳足迹具有重要贡献,但节能在经济成本及环境成本方面而言是有限度的。在可持续的环境政策管理制定中,应从生命周期角度,统筹考虑协调各行业减碳的协调发展。论文同时也验证了在生命周期评价中考虑时间变量将有助于更好地利用生命周期评价结果支持环境可持续管理。结论对于城市规划的政策制定、量化环境表现是有益的。     

应用生态网络分析方法评价中国经济系统的可持续性

将生态网络分析方法应用于中国经济系统的可持续性分析。依据1987—2010年的投入产出数据,构建中国经济系统的货币网络流,用生态网络指标量化经济系统的网络特征和变化情况,探讨中国经济系统中增长与发展的变化及其可持续性。主要结论有:(1)1987—2010年间中国经济系统的总吞吐量呈指数增长趋势,网络规模不断增长。(2)1987—2010年间中国经济的系统效率在波动中呈增加趋势,但增长幅度较小。从长期阶段看,1997—2010年间的系统效率和组织能力比1987—1995年间有明显提高,表明经济系统在后期获得了一定程度的发展。但系统效率在2002年达到高点后呈现下降趋势。(3)1987—2010年间中国经济系统的上升性和发展能力都在持续提高,但主要来自规模增长。增长和发展的量化结果表明,1987—2010年间中国经济系统上升性的提高,90%来自总吞吐量(增长),只有10%来自效率改进(发展)。(4)1987—2010年间的中国经济系统的α平均值为0.138,远小于0.37或0.33的可持续性最优平衡点,系统处于缺乏效率的不可持续的状态。要提高经济系统的可持续性,需要提高经济系统的效率(结构)和组织能力。     

北京市水足迹及农业用水结构变化特征

运用水足迹的理论和方法计算评价了1990—2005年北京市水足迹及水资源利用的可持续性,在此基础上进一步分析了北京市农业用水结构的变化特征。结果表明:(1)北京市水足迹从1990年的81.5亿m3上升至2005年的168.6亿m3,人均水足迹由750.1m3上升为1096.0m3;(2)北京市水资源匮乏度不断升高,1995年以来水资源自给率呈下降趋势,与之相对应的水资源依赖度越来越高;(3)农业部门用水量在本地用水量中的比例平均每年为55.1%,虚拟水净输入量在虚拟水净输入总量中的比例平均每年达到89.1%;(4)高耗水型作物产品生产用水比例升高加大了农业用水压力,动物产品生产用水量呈增加趋势,2001—2005年动物产品生产引入的虚拟水占到其虚拟水总量的81.3%。北京市水资源利用呈不可持续状态,通过农业系统内部结构的优化调整,实现农业部门水资源的高效利用是缓解北京市水资源紧缺问题的关键。     

海岸带城市生态承载力综合评价——以连云港市为例

海岸带是人类聚居和海洋资源开发利用的重点区域。海岸带城市综合生态承载力体现了海岸带生态系统对人类社会经济活动的承受能力,是判断海岸带城市生态系统健康程度和制定海岸带环境管理政策的重要依据。基于"压力(P)-状态(S)-响应(R)"概念模型,以连云港市为例,构建海岸带综合生态承载力评价指标体系,并对2005—2014年间连云港市的综合生态承载力进行评价。结果显示:连云港市海岸带综合生态承载力呈现逻辑斯蒂式波动上升趋势,2005—2007年处于超载状态,2008—2011年基本处于平衡状态,2012年后处于可载状态。对影响承载力的主要因素进行贡献度分析的结果表明:负向指标中,海岸带环境压力大于人口压力;正向指标中,海岸带经济发展水平及科技支撑条件的贡献呈上升趋势,海岸带可利用资源波动下降。结合相关分析和因子分析,得出海岸带环境压力、科技支撑条件及经济发展水平是制约综合承载力的关键因素。研究结果对海岸带地区环境管理及可持续发展政策制定具有重要意义。     

江苏重要生态功能区质量演变及红线管控效应

生态保护红线区作为重要生态功能区，对国家生态安全起到了基础保障作用。如何准确有效地评估生态保护红线区生态质量演变以及生态保护红线的作用，对“红线”政策的进一步完善和区域可持续发展具有重要意义。基于Google Earth Engine平台，利用Landsat 5、8长时序遥感影像构建出江苏全域1985—2021年遥感生态指数RSEI,分析了生态保护红线区1985年以来的生态质量演变情况，评估了2013年以来实施的生态保护红线政策在生态保护方面的效用。结果表明：(1)针对江苏全域构建的RSEI模型PC1平均贡献率高于70%,适用于江苏全域及生态保护红线区的生态质量演变分析。1985—2021年RSEI提升的面积占江苏总面积的58.2%,红线区平均RSEI值在0.52—0.63间变化，整体呈现波动上升的趋势；(2)江苏生态保护红线区整体RSEI均值突变年份在2003年，各市红线区RSEI均值突变年份大多集中在1995—2005年间，1990年代苏南和苏中部分城市出现由好向差的突变，2000年代苏北城市出现由差向好的突变；(3)生态保护红线具有屏蔽效应，有效阻挡了建筑用地等不透水面和裸土向保...     

Sustainability of Nile tilapia net-cage culture in a reservoir in a semi-arid region

Among the tools used to measure sustainability in aquaculture, sets of indicators allow a holistic view of a system in its social, environmental, and economic dimensions. Approaches that align indicators with models such as the Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework can improve understanding of this sustainability. This study evaluated the sustainability of cage production systems for Nile tilapia in the Santa Cruz Reservoir, to determine whether a set of indicators used with the DPSIR conceptual model was effective to study the sustainability of the system. The 49 indicators used were calculated from information obtained from questionnaires and from monitoring the production system. Sustainability was also modeled and compared with hypothetical scenarios, with different fish stocking densities. The results indicated that the production system is economically feasible, generating profit and distributing income. However, the income generated benefits few people and is not fixed in the community. Environmentally speaking, the system is highly dependent on inputs, especially the nutrients nitrogen and phosphorus, and energy, as well as increasing sedimentation of nutrients in the reservoir. In the social dimension, the venture employs few workers. The modeling showed that the system is potentially sustainable, and that changes in stocking density decreased this sustainability. In summary, the system showed many sustainable features, whereas some others need to be modified to improve the general sustainability.     

Habitat percolation transition undermines sustainability in social-ecological agricultural systems

Steady increases in human population size and resource consumption are driving rampant agricultural expansion and intensification. Habitat loss caused by agriculture puts the integrity of ecosystems at risk and threatens the persistence of human societies that rely on ecosystem services. We develop a spatially explicit model describing the coupled dynamics of an agricultural landscape and human population size to assess the effect of different land-use management strategies, defined by agricultural clustering and intensification, on the sustainability of the social-ecological system. We show how agricultural expansion can cause natural habitats to undergo a percolation transition leading to abrupt habitat fragmentation that feedbacks on human's decision making, aggravating landscape degradation. We found that agricultural intensification to spare land from conversion is a successful strategy only in highly natural landscapes, and that clustering agricultural land is the most effective measure to preserve large connected natural fragments, prevent severe fragmentation and thus, enhance sustainability.     

Measuring the sustainability of policy scenarios: Emergy-based strategic environmental assessment of the Chinese paper industry

Recent years have seen increasing demand for wider application of strategic environmental assessment (SEA), especially SEA of major policies, as a powerful instrument to safeguard the environment during the rapid industrialization and urbanization in China. Debates on SEA are concentrated on its feasibility and effective implementation in practice. This study applies Emergy analysis within the framework of social–economic–natural complex eco-system theory to overcome the limitations of methods used for assessing regional sustainability so far. This established model is tested in the case of Chinese paper industry to assess the sustainability of 5 policy scenarios. The results show that Emergy-based Indices (EbI) are more effective to measure the sustainability of industry complex ecosystem, thus EbI approach is very useful in SEAs on policy scenarios of a given complex ecosystem.     

Sensitivity Analysis of the APEX Model for Assessing Sustainability of Switchgrass Grown for Biofuel Production in Central Texas

Crop simulation models are increasingly being used to understand the feasibility of large-scale cellulosic biofuel production along with the multi-dimensional impacts on environmental sustainability. However, how the uncertainty in model parameters impacts model performance for sustainability is unclear. In this case study, sensitivity analyses were conducted for three switchgrass sustainability metrics: total biomass production, nitrogen loss, and soil carbon change using the APEX (Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender) model. Fifteen out of the 45 parameters (25 crop growth (CROP) parameters and 20 additional model parameters (PARM)) were identified as influential for the three sustainability metrics for three lowland genotypes (WBC, AP13, and KAN) across two locations (Temple, TX, and Austin, TX). Our sensitivity results showed that parameter importance was not dependent on the genotypes but depended on the variables of interest, and differed only slightly between locations. Influential belowground-related CROP and PARM parameters were identified for each sustainability metric, indicating that belowground-related parameters are just as important as commonly measured aboveground CROP parameters. Further investigation of the linear or non-linear relationships and the two-way interactions between each of the individual influential parameters with the three sustainability metrics reflected the functions and characteristics within the APEX model and the interrelations among different processes. Strong interactions between the most influential parameters for total biomass, nitrogen loss, and soil carbon change also highlighted the importance of accurately setting these parameters. Identification of influential model parameters for switchgrass sustainability may help guide field measurements and provide further understanding of the interrelated processes in the APEX model. Furthermore, future field experiments can be designed to measure these influential parameters and understand the non-linear relationships identified between influential parameters and response variables. More accurate model parameterization will help improve APEX model performance and our understanding of the possible underlying physiological mechanisms.     

Sustainable ecosystem management using optimal control theory: part 1 (deterministic systems)

The concept of sustainability, an abstract one by its nature, has been given a mathematical representation through the use of Fisher information as a measure. It is used to propose the sustainability hypotheses for dynamical systems, which has paved the way to achieve sustainable development through externally enforced control schemes. For natural systems, this refers to the task of ecosystem management, which is complicated due the lack of clear objectives. This work attempts to incorporate the idea of sustainability in ecosystem management. The natural regulation of ecosystems suggests two possible control options, top-down control and bottom-up control. A comparison of these two control philosophies is made on generic food chain models using the objectives derived from the sustainability hypotheses. Optimal control theory is used to derive the control profiles to handle the complex nature of the models and the objectives. The results indicate a strong relationship between the hypotheses and the dynamic behavior of the models, supporting the use of Fisher information as a measure. As regards to ecosystem management, it has been observed that top-down control is more aggressive but can result in instability, while bottom-up control is guaranteed to give a stable and improved dynamic response. The results also indicate that bottom-up control is a better option to affect shifts in the dynamic regimes of a system, which may be required to recover the system from a natural disaster like the hurricane Katrina.     

生态创新系统功能、过程和可持续评估

不同国家生态创新水平有高低,生态创新系统有差异。生态创新系统是由一系列参与者通过相互作用形成的网络,目的是推动有助于生态环境和社会经济协调发展的知识和技术的生产、传播和应用。为比较不同国家生态创新系统的发展状况和可持续性,分析不同国家生态创新系统的优势和不足,提出生态创新系统两步评估法和整体分析框架。把生态创新系统的功能和过程结合起来,对生态创新系统的发展水平进行评价。重点关注系统的长期发展,即系统可持续性。基于资本的角度,包括知识、经济、人力和社会资本,建立生态创新系统可持续评估模型,考察相关资本存量、流量和风险因素。根据创新系统理论、文献回顾和国际研究比较,遴选出30个关键指标,构建涵盖2个指标矩阵的综合评价指标体系。采用主成分分析和综合评价方法,对不同国家生态创新系统的功能-过程和可持续性分别进行评价。研究表明,法国、德国、韩国、西班牙和挪威生态创新系统的功能-过程表现最强,韩国、德国、奥地利、挪威、捷克生态创新系统的可持续性表现最强。根据生态创新系统的现状和可持续性,主要生态创新国家可以分为四种类型,据此采用不同发展策略。如韩国系统现状水平和可持续性都较高,属于生态创新先进国。...     

A PCA-based method for construction of composite sustainability indicators

Purpose

Sustainable manufacturing is practiced globally as a comprehensive strategy for improving the sustainability performance of the manufacturing industry. While sustainability is characterized into such three dimensions as economic, environmental, and social, currently, there is no quantitative method yet to measure the so-called ??sustainability?? in the manufacturing industry. The objective of this research is to develop a comprehensive and effective quantitative method to measure the overall sustainability performance of manufacturing companies.

Methods

In this paper, an integrated methodology is presented for the development of composite sustainability indicators based on principal component analysis (PCA). In developing this integrated approach, both industry and academia surveys are conducted to identify what sustainability indicators are favored by the sustainable manufacturing community. A unique index is then generated to measure the overall sustainability performance of industrial practices. The methodology can be used for benchmarking the overall sustainability performance of various manufacturing companies.

Results

A case study is conducted on a total of 11 global electronic manufacturing companies. The overall sustainability performance of these companies are measured, benchmarked, and ranked. The results showed that PCA is an effective approach for constructing composite sustainability indicators across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.

Conclusions

From this research, it is found that industry and academia have different views on the sustainability measurement, evidenced by different weights put on the same indicator in industry and academia. The case study demonstrated that the methodology presented in this paper is an effective tool for comprehensive measurement of sustainability performance of manufacturing companies. Strengths and weaknesses of each company can be identified. Then, the recommended improvements can be suggested based on the study of each of the individual indicators.     

甘肃白龙江林区森林资源可持续发展力的评价

在森林资源可持续发展理论指导下,构建了森林资源可持续发展力综合评价指标的体系．以白龙江林区为例,通过对所选择的5个策略层(中间层,B层),20个措施层(最低层,C层)指标值的计算和纠正,建立森林资源可持续发展力评价的协调度模型：DH=∑BiPi．1996年的DH=0．5320,2000年的DH=0．6100,虽然均小于其理论值0．7000,判定该林区处于非可持续发展状态。但同时表明该林区正向可持续发展目标前进．     

Tourism sustainability in Tibet – Forward planning using a systems approach

The purpose of this study is to employ a nonlinear dynamic evaluation method to assess the tourism sustainability of Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), China, a new emerging tourism destination. The methodology draws on system dynamics and Back Propagation (BP) neural network. According to 7 setting principles, this study identifies 13 tourism sustainability indicators including conventional tourism income, tourism resources stock, pollution stock, etc., as well as specific residents’ tourism cognition, seasonal difference, accessibility, etc. Then a system dynamics model including the 13 indicators (variables) and other relevant auxiliary variables is established. Based on the numerical simulation, using a three layers BP neural network optimized by genetic algorithm and particle swarm algorithm, this study evaluates the future sustainability dynamically and compares the sustainability evolution from 2014 to 2050 under different development strategies. The research results not only provide information useful for the dynamic control and scientific management of the future sustainable tourism development, but also provide a systems approach to evaluate regional tourism sustainability.