舟山渔场渔业资源可持续利用指标体系的构建与评价

以舟山渔场为例,选择了渔业资源环境、社会和经济3个子系统的24个指标,对各子系统的指标体系进行了主成分分析．在此基础上采用灰关联度分析。计算了舟山渔场1954～1990年的相对关联度,以此作为评价舟山渔场渔业资源可持续利用的指标,对舟山渔场的渔业资源可持续利用水平进行了评价．结果表明,1962年前舟山渔场渔业资源的可持续利用水平较低;1962年后可持续利用水平不断上升,在1974达到最高。相对关联度比1962年增加44．78％;1978年后可持续利用水平持续下降,1983年降至最低水平,只有1974年的51．72％．     

从演化的角度评价北京市经济系统可持续发展趋势

评价系统可持续性是可持续相关学科讨论的热点问题。从演化的角度评价系统可持续发展趋势是可持续评价的新视角。以热力学、信息论和网络分析等为基础解析系统结构,发现系统演化的能力由两个因素组成：上升性和恢复力。上升性或恢复力过高的系统都不可持续,只有当上升性和恢复力达到一定的平衡状态,系统才能实现可持续发展。利用该演化模型,评价了北京市经济系统1985—2005年可持续发展趋势。结果表明：1985—1987,1993—2002年间系统向最优可持续点靠近;1988—1992,2003—2005年间系统远离最优可持续点。通过分析北京市2005年一阶路径对上升性的边际贡献,得出使系统更可持续的途径是强化对上升性边际贡献大的路径。     

玛纳斯河流域水资源可持续利用评价方法

水资源短缺是制约玛纳斯河流域水资源可持续发展的"瓶颈"因素,对流域水资源可持续发展水平进行综合评价对其国民经济可持续发展至关重要。从水资源、社会、经济、生态环境四个子系统出发,采用了熵值法和投影寻踪理论相结合的评价模型,对流域水资源可持续利用水平进行评价,并将两种方法的评价结果进行加权求和,得出流域水资源可持续利用变化趋势。评价结果表明,该模型方法可靠,分析结果合理,评价结果可以为水资源可持续开发利用提供科学依据,是评价水资源可持续利用水平的一种有效新方法。最后,提出了促进流域水资源可持续利用的建议,为实现水资源可持续开发利用提供借鉴和参考。     

基于生态位适宜度的耕地可持续利用评价

耕地可持续利用评价是土地利用研究的重要内容.基于生态位理论,从区域耕地生态系统整体性出发,提出耕地生态元和耕地生态位的概念,并在此基础上构建了耕地可持续利用生态位适宜度评价模型( Fi模型).然后,将所构建模型应用于河南省焦作市耕地可持续利用评价之中,测度了1997～2006年期间焦作市耕地可持续利用生态位适宜度Fi值.为了便于对照分析,采用限制因子模型(NFmin-i模型)和希尔伯脱空间模型(CHi模型)进行耕地可持续利用生态位适宜度NFmin-i值和CHi值的测算.测算结果表明:(1)1997～2006年期间, Fi值总体上呈递增趋势,从1997年的0.5088增加到2006年的0.6503,表明支撑焦作市耕地可持续利用的自然、经济和社会因子总体上呈良性发展趋势,即耕地可持续利用现实生态位趋于最适生态位.(2)1997～2006年期间,Fi与CHi值各年间的变化规律一致,与NFmin-i值总体变化规律一致,表明运用Fi模型进行耕地可持续利用评价具有较强的科学性和现实性.同时,Fi值有利于从综合角度表征区域耕地总体可持续利用水平.(3)利用最适生态位解释区域耕地可持续利用评价标准,以及运用n维资源(条件)生态位与最适生态位的匹配这一基本思想进行区域耕地可持续利用评价,生态意义明确,便于依据生态位适宜度值的大小及其变化制定区域耕地利用方案和措施.     

我国水资源生态足迹分析与预测

生态足迹模型的提出为水资源可持续利用的定量评价提供了新思路.通过构建水资源生态足迹和水资源生态承载力的计算模型,对我国1949～2007年水资源的可持续利用状况作出了客观的评价,并运用ARIMA模型对我国水资源生态足迹变动趋势作出深入的研究.结果表明,1949～2007年,我国人均水资源生态承载力总体上呈下降态势,而人均水资源生态足迹则逐年上升,从而造成人均水资源生态赤字逐渐增大,我国水资源处于一种不安全状态.运用ARIMA(2,1,3)模型的预测结果表明,2008～2012年,我国人均水资源生态足迹将继续呈上升态势,水危机形势将日益严峻.在此基础上,针对我国水资源的可持续利用问题提出了一组政策建议.     

集体林权改革效果模糊优选评价及发展趋势灰色预测

本文采用层次分析法构建集体林权改革效果评价指标体系,利用层次模糊优选法和灰色GM(1,1)模型综合评价泰安市集体林权改革对林业效应的影响及预测林业效益发展趋势.结果表明林权改革对泰安市林业的经济效益影响显著,经济效益指数由2008年的0.3675增长到2011年的1.00,增长率达到172.1%;而生态效益和社会效益相对滞后,这与泰安市2011年刚完成主体林改的实际相符合.泰安市林业综合效益指数呈加速发展态势,灰色预测结果表明,到2015年泰安市林业综合效益指数将是2011年的1.6326倍,年增长15.815%.     

广东省循环农业发展的综合评价及其障碍度诊断

从经济与社会发展、资源减最投入、资源循环利用、资源环境安全4个方面构建立了区域农业循环经济发展的评价指标体系,并利用层次分析法和加权函数法,对1990-2005年间广东省农业循环经济的发展水平进行了综合评价.结果表明,1990年以来广东省农业循环经济发展水平总体呈现增强趋势,综合评价指数在1一1.7范围内变动;经济与社会和资源循环利用的平均发展水平高于1990年,且发展速度逐年加快;资源减量投入评价指数变化不稳定,平均发展水平略低于1990年;资源环境安全发展呈现逐年缓慢降低的趋势.障碍度分析表明,资源循环利用对广东省农业循环经济发展的制约最大,但障碍度大小总体趋势是下降的,资源减量投入和资源环境的障碍度随着时间呈现上升趋势,其中资源减量投入指标的障碍度自2001年后有较为明显的增幅.     

成都平原经济区土地可持续利用水平变化及驱动因素分析

土地资源的可持续利用是区域可持续发展的基础, 成都平原经济区土地不仅关乎经济区的经济社会与土地资源的协调发展, 还影响着整个四川省甚至西南地区的协调可持续发展。文章借用主成分分析和灰色关联模型, 对成都平原经济区(成都市除外)的土地可持续利用水平进行指数计算, 同时探其驱动因素。结果表明, 2006—2015年, 成都平原经济区整体和各地级市的土地可持续利用水平各有不同, 但整体趋势良好; 主要的影响因素有: 耕地数量和质量、对土地资源的保护力度、农林产品的收益、城乡居民的生活需求和人口的规模和增速等。各地级市之间的土地可持续利用水平差距将逐渐缩小, 区域有望协调发展。     

新疆玛纳斯河流域绿洲生态安全评价

利用层次分析法和模糊综合评判法建立了生态安全评价指标体系,从水资源、环境和社会经济3个方面选取了18个评价指标对2006年新疆玛纳斯河流域绿洲生态安全进行了综合评价.结果表明：2006年,研究区生态状况处于基本安全水平,其隶属度值为0.3347,综合评分值为0.551;水资源安全指数和社会经济指数分别处于比较安全和非常安全水平,而环境安全指数则处于不安全水平状态.水资源是绿洲实现可持续发展的保障,社会经济指数和环境安全指数展示了绿洲的发展水平和环境状况,三因素极大程度上决定了绿洲的生态安全水平.     

基于改进SPA法的耕地占补平衡生态安全评价

针对目前耕地占补平衡生态安全评价系统的不确定性,在理解集对分析(SPA)原理的基础上,利用原创联系度的可展性对其进行改进,将三级评判扩展到四级评判,并结合信息熵法,建立了基于改进SPA法的耕地占补平衡生态安全综合评价模型,并利用该模型对永川区影响耕地占补平衡生态安全的18项指标进行评价,得到永川区2005、2009、2015以及2020年的耕地占补平衡生态安全等级.此外,为了验证改进SPA法的可行性与合理性,将其评价结果与改进模糊综合评价结果以及多指标综合评价结果进行比较,研究结果表明:利用改进SPA法得到2005年永川区耕地占补平衡生态安全级别为Ⅱ级,2009年为Ⅲ级,2015年为Ⅳ级,2020年同样为Ⅳ级,整体上呈现出由Ⅱ级向Ⅳ级上升的趋势;改进SPA法综合评价结果与改进模糊综合评价结果以及多指标综合评价结果基本一致.研究认为利用集对势进行耕地占补平衡生态安全评价具有一定的可行性和可行性,评价结果比较贴近实际情况,为耕地占补平衡生态安全评价提供了一种科学合理且简单实用的评价方法.     

三峡水库香溪河库湾基于初级生产力的渔产潜力估算

于20132014 年在三峡水库香溪河库湾开展了浮游植物初级生产力的调查, 并分别采用营养动态模型、Cushing 模型、Tait 模型和Downing 模型计算了该库湾滤食性鱼类的渔产潜力, 以此来评估其水体承载量。结果表明, 香溪河库湾初级生产力具有显著的时空异质性;据此计算的渔产潜力显示了空间差异和季节动态;高岚河水域的渔产潜力较其他水域要大;夏季渔产潜力最大, 从大到小依次为春季、秋季、冬季。上述方法计算的滤食性鱼类渔产潜力分别为7.3103、1.046104、1.256104 和2.064106 kg/y。除了Downing模型外, 其他方法的估算结果较接近渔业资源量的真实状况。以3 个模型计算的渔产潜力为核算依据, 确认该库湾滤食性鱼类的水体承载量约为104 kg, 最大持续捕捞量可达5103 kg/y。研究结果可为三峡水库支流库湾渔业资源的可持续利用提供必要的技术支撑。       

基于渔获统计的太平洋岛国渔业资源开发利用现状评价

全面评价渔业资源开发利用状况能够为资源的合理利用提供依据,营养指标作为以生态系统为基础的渔业管理方法与模式在近年来广泛运用于渔业管理中,用于评估捕捞活动的影响。根据联合国粮农组织FAO提供的1950—2010年太平洋岛国的渔获生产统计数据,结合Fishbase提供的相关鱼种营养级(Trophic level,TL)以及Sea Around Us Project数据库提供的无脊椎动物营养级,探讨了1950—2010年澳大利亚、新西兰、基里巴斯和斐济等四国的渔获物平均营养级(Mean trophic level,MTL)的变化情况,以此判定各国海洋渔业资源可持续利用情况。结果表明:澳大利亚资源状况较好,尽管其MTL在1950—1984年以0.09/10a的速度下降,但通过剔除TL低于3.25的物种,从而排除生物量受环境影响而波动较大的植食动物、腐生生物和食浮游生物动物对MTL造成的影响,观察TL大于3.25渔获物平均营养级(~(3.25)Mean trophic level,~(3.25)MTL)的变化情况,其~(3.25)MTL在1950—2010年呈波动上升趋势,说明MTL的下降是由低营养级鱼种产量的增加所引起的。新西兰海洋渔业资源遭到了一定程度的破坏,尽管其MTL自20世纪70年代中期开始大幅上升,并在1990—2010年处于高水平上稳定波动,未出现明显的下降趋势;但在不统计TL低于3.25的物种情况下,其~(3.25)MTL经过1977—1980年的加速上升以及1981—1998年的缓慢上升,在1999—2010年稳定下降并趋于平衡。从基里巴斯和斐济整个海域的营养指标变化情况来看,两国渔业资源状况较好,但将基里巴斯和斐济渔业分为外海渔业和沿岸渔业两类时,伴随产量的持续上升,两国的外海渔业MTL均未出现明显的降低,资源处于加速开发状态;而两国的沿岸渔业MTL在近年来均出现下降,资源被过度捕捞。为促使渔业的可持续发展,各国需加强对资源的动态监测与评估,以掌握捕捞活动下资源的变化情况。     

An analysis of genetic stock identification on a small geographical scale using microsatellite markers,and its application in the management of a mixed‐stock fishery for Atlantic salmon Salmo salar in Ireland

A genetic stock identification (GSI) study was undertaken in a fishery for Atlantic salmon Salmo salar to determine the effects of restrictive fishery management measures on the stock composition of the fishery, and if accurate and precise stock composition estimates could be achieved on the small geographical scale where this fishery operates, using a suite of only seven microsatellite loci. The stock composition of the Foyle fishery was shown to comprise almost exclusively of Foyle origin fish in the 3 years after restrictive measures were introduced in 2007, compared to 85% the year before. This showed that the restrictive measures resulted in the Foyle fishery being transformed from a mixed‐stock fishery to an almost exclusively single‐stock fishery, and showed how GSI studies can guide and evaluate management decisions to successfully manage these fisheries. Highly accurate and precise stock composition estimates were achieved in this study, using both cBAYES and ONCOR genetic software packages. This suggests accurate and precise stock composition is possible even on small geographical scales.     

Multidimensional analysis of fishery production systems in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil

A total of 17 fishery systems covering gillnets, traps and seines targeting fish and crustaceans as well as hand-collected mussels in the state of Pernambuco (Brazil) were compared and analyzed in the present study using the RAPFISH method and 57 attributes to qualify five evaluation dimensions: economic, social, ecological, technological and management. The aim was to determine the sustainability of each field from the fishery (i.e. stocks) and social standpoint (i.e. fishermen). With regard to sustainability, it was generally apparent that the fisheries analyzed are far from any ideal that would permit long-term exploitation, but are nonetheless also distant from the extremes of non-sustainability in the environments investigated. The low degree of organization demonstrated in most fisheries of Pernambuco and the low level of schooling among the fishermen contribute toward maintaining the status quo, with an increase in situations of conflict and a lack of valorization regarding the activities. The shrimp system is the least sustainable, mainly due to its environmental impact; however, this is compensated by the relatively higher quality of living provided stakeholders through its exploitation. The evaluation dimensions showed the most sustainable system in Pernambuco to be the stationary 'uncovered pound net', followed by the line system. Alternative procedures for integrated fishery management, such as an increase in statistical data, coastal zoning to limit shrimp farms and establishing protected areas are proposed and discussed. Such procedures may contribute toward the formulation of public policies for the fishery industry of the state, which is essentially made up of artisanal fisheries with low yields and exercised by the 11 926 fishermen affiliated with coastal fishing colonies.     

Controversies in strategy of marine fisheries development between eastern and western countries

Abstract

The expansion of distant‐water fishing activities of the Eastern countries to date is causing not only a growing concern by the coastal nations but also interest in the theoretical principles and criteria applied for developing a strategy of fishery development in these states. Obviously, there are many discrepancies between Western and Eastern theories in this field. Among them we can quote the concept of inexhaustibility of the ocean living resources, both traditional and new resources. This concept supports a further catch increase. The key problem lies in technological progress. Pure economic criteria are less important factors because the principal task of Eastern fisheries is to stave off shortages of animal proteins in local markets. Consequently, only maximum utilization of fishery resources is accepted. The importance of marine fisheries lies also in generating employment opportunities, principally in land‐related activities. Eastern distant‐water fisheries can continue to develop if the principle of surplus catches and historic rights is respected by coastal nations. Freedom of open‐sea resources utilization should be maintained. The traditional management system of world fisheries is the most desirable solution for future sea regimens. International cooperation in fisheries should be considered not only in economic terms but also as a source of political gains.     

An Integrated Approach Is Needed for Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management: Insights from Ecosystem-Level Management Strategy Evaluation

An ecosystem approach is widely seen as a desirable goal for fisheries management but there is little consensus on what strategies or measures are needed to achieve it. Management strategy evaluation (MSE) is a tool that has been widely used to develop and test single species fisheries management strategies and is now being extended to support ecosystem based fisheries management (EBFM). We describe the application of MSE to investigate alternative strategies for achieving EBFM goals for a complex multispecies fishery in southeastern Australia. The study was undertaken as part of a stakeholder driven process to review and improve the ecological, economic and social performance of the fishery. An integrated management strategy, involving combinations of measures including quotas, gear controls and spatial management, performed best against a wide range of objectives and this strategy was subsequently adopted in the fishery, leading to marked improvements in performance. Although particular to one fishery, the conclusion that an integrated package of measures outperforms single focus measures we argue is likely to apply widely in fisheries that aim to achieve EBFM goals.     

Rapid global expansion of invertebrate fisheries: trends, drivers, and ecosystem effects

Background

Worldwide, finfish fisheries are receiving increasing assessment and regulation, slowly leading to more sustainable exploitation and rebuilding. In their wake, invertebrate fisheries are rapidly expanding with little scientific scrutiny despite increasing socio-economic importance.

Methods and Findings

We provide the first global evaluation of the trends, drivers, and population and ecosystem consequences of invertebrate fisheries based on a global catch database in combination with taxa-specific reviews. We also develop new methodologies to quantify temporal and spatial trends in resource status and fishery development. Since 1950, global invertebrate catches have increased 6-fold with 1.5 times more countries fishing and double the taxa reported. By 2004, 34% of invertebrate fisheries were over-exploited, collapsed, or closed. New fisheries have developed increasingly rapidly, with a decrease of 6 years (3 years) in time to peak from the 1950s to 1990s. Moreover, some fisheries have expanded further and further away from their driving market, encompassing a global fishery by the 1990s. 71% of taxa (53% of catches) are harvested with habitat-destructive gear, and many provide important ecosystem functions including habitat, filtration, and grazing.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that invertebrate species, which form an important component of the basis of marine food webs, are increasingly exploited with limited stock and ecosystem-impact assessments, and enhanced management attention is needed to avoid negative consequences for ocean ecosystems and human well-being.     

江苏近海北部海域春季鱼类群落结构的年间变化

根据2009—2014年在江苏近海北部海域(34.00°—35.13°N,119.40°—121.50°E)的底拖网调查数据,结合综合性指标和多元统计分析等方法研究了该海域的鱼类群落结构随时间的变化.结果表明: 江苏近海海域共有鱼类68种,相对资源量波动较大,站位平均渔获质量的变化范围为0.75～1.62 kg·h^-1,站位平均渔获尾数显著下降,变化范围为203～370 ind·h^-1. 2009—2014年江苏近海的鱼类群落平均营养级指数在3.58～3.72,2009—2010年相对较低,2011—2014年在3.70以上波动.2009—2014年鱼类群落的平均个体大小在2.93～11.18 g之间波动上升,变化趋势与平均营养级基本一致.聚类分析和非度量多维标度排序分析表明,研究期间大致分为2009—2010和2011—2014年两个年份组.组间分歧种主要有尖海龙、小头栉孔虾虎鱼和玉筋鱼等.对前后两个年份组的分析表明,中上层、浮游生物食性鱼类优势度增加,冷温种和本地种优势度下降.表明江苏近海海域鱼类群落结构发生了较为明显的演替.针对演替规律提出了渔业管理的建议,为渔业资源的合理利用提供理论参考.