青岛地区COVID19流行病学特征分析

目的分析青岛地区新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的流行病学特征。方法纳入青岛市自2020年1月21日至3月3日所有COVID-19确诊病例(n=60),收集患者基本信息和流行病学资料,分析易感人群、传播模式、基本繁殖数、疫情进展及其与防控措施的相关性。结果 60例确诊患者包括27例输入性病例和33例本地感染病例。本地感染者以女性为主,占69.7%,显著高于输入性病例(37.0%)(χ~2=6.400,P=0.011)。本地共发生三代传播,发病例数逐代减少。青岛地区总病例R0值为1.49。本地一代、二代和三代的R0值分别为1.38、1.53、1.56。传播模式由家庭聚集性向密切接触转换。结论青岛地区本地传播病例女性易感,日新增病例总体呈波浪式下降趋势,目前疫情已基本得到控制,应进一步做好分区分级精准防控,加强对外来人员的隔离观察,防止出现疫情反弹。     

新型冠状病毒肺炎的传染动力学

2019年末在武汉出现新型冠状病毒肺炎(Coronavirus disease 2019,COVID-19)患者,此后两个月疫情进入暴发期。为了科学有效地对疫情发展趋势进行预判,本研究根据国家及各地方卫生健康委员会公布的官方数据建立了COVID-19确诊、死亡及治愈病例的Logistic分段模型。模型预计全国累计确诊病例将达到81 370～102 800人,累计死亡病例将达到3 177～3 960人,最终病死率约为3.9%。在现有的医疗条件和诊断标准下,预计到2020年5月上旬,全国确诊病例(除死亡外)将全部治愈出院。此模型能较好地拟合和预测COVID-19疫情的不同传播阶段和发展趋势,将为疫情防控提供科学依据。     

新型冠状病毒肺炎的疫情趋势预测

2019年12月以来,湖北省武汉市部分医院陆续发现了多例不明原因肺炎病例,现已证实为新型冠状病毒肺炎(Coronavirus disease 2019,COVID-19)。全国各地采取了前所未有的措施,大力开展疾病救治和防疫工作。本文收集中国国家卫生健康委员会公布的官方统计数据预测疫情走向。传统SEIR模型中仅考虑病例和处于潜伏期的感染者,病例具有传染性而潜伏者无传染性;事实上,新冠肺炎确诊患者在医院中隔离无法对外界易感人群造成感染,有研究表明处于潜伏期的感染者可能具有传染性。因此,本研究提出了改进的传染病传播模型—ISEIR,将患者分为未收治的发病患者(具有传染性)和已收治的确诊患者(不考虑传染性),并考虑处于潜伏期的感染者具有传染性;以历史数据动态拟合模型参数,来摆脱固定参数的局限性。在数据预处理中根据每日有效再生数的概率分布将2020年2月12至14日这三天的临床诊断数据进行预处理,摊入到前期数据中。疫情分成全国(湖北省外)和湖北省两大区域分别进行探讨,通过新模型ISEIR预测今后疫情的进一步发展,并计算每日的有效再生数变化。结果显示,湖北省的有效再生数从3.108逐渐降低,2020年4月19日所有患者将全部治愈出院,累计确诊患者为66 487人;全国(湖北省外)的初始有效再生数为1.929,小于湖北省,2020年3月26日所有患者全部治愈,累计确诊患者13 270人。从结果中可以发现,在严格的防控措施下疫情得到了有效抑制,验证了目前防控措施的有效性,但仍需要防止复工潮引起的疫情反弹。     

浙江省新型冠状病毒疫情空间扩散特征及影响因子探究

2020年新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)在全球200多个国家蔓延,对世界公共卫生环境、民众生命健康安全与社会经济带来了巨大影响。为了解病毒传播的时空特征及驱动因子对新型冠状病毒(SARS-CoV-2)防控的重要意义,本研究基于2020年1月21日~2020年3月10日浙江省各县、市(区)的COVID-19疫情数据,按照病例数的变化情况将疫情时期分为迅速增长期、高位回落期、控制减少期和稳定期,发现省外输入病例主要确诊于迅速增长期和高位回落期,省内扩散病例主要确诊于控制减少期和稳定期。利用ArcGIS软件进行数据可视化,总结了两种病例类型在浙江省各县、市(区)分布的时空变化特征,发现浙江省新冠肺炎疫情在温州最为严重,其次是杭州、宁波和台州;并利用地理探测器方法探究了各因子的作用,发现社会经济因子和城市建设因子影响较大,自然环境因子影响较小。     

COVID-19的流行及研究现状

2019年12月,武汉市发现多例不明原因肺炎病例,随后被证实由一种新型冠状病毒引起。2020年2月11日WHO将该疾病命名为COVID-19(Coronavirus disease 2019)。此后,疫情蔓延至全国。全球多个国家和地区也出现了COVID-19。COVID-19主要经呼吸道飞沫和密切接触传播,潜伏期1～14d,多为3～7d,大部分患者症状较轻,少数患者出现呼吸困难和/或低氧血症,甚至进展为急性呼吸窘迫综合征、多器官功能衰竭等。目前尚无针对该疾病的疫苗和特异性治疗药物。本文将从病原学、流行病学、致病机制、预防与治疗等方面对COVID-19进行综述,希望对疫情防控、药物和疫苗研究提供参考。     

新型冠状病毒病(COVID-19)研究进展

2019年12月,湖北省武汉市暴发了一种由新型冠状病毒引起的肺炎(COVID-19)随后蔓延到中国所有省区以及多个国家和地区,WHO宣布其为全球关注的突发公共卫生事件。及时了解和表征该病毒对抗击疫情至关重要。通过收集和梳理该疫情暴发之后2个月内全球多领域研究人员关于COVID-19的论文,发现这些研究主要集中在溯源分析、检测手段、病患治疗、临床表现、药物研发、致病机理、传播途径、流行特征等方面。该冠状病毒与蝙蝠冠状病毒以及穿山甲冠状病毒相关,其利用与SARS-CoV相同的人受体ACE2,感染途径证实为呼吸系统和消化系统。该病毒具有人际传播能力,并且出现无症状传播。COVID-19确诊病例多数与武汉有关,大多数为轻症,年老者病死率较高。快速灵敏核酸检测通常作为确诊依据,目前已经筛选出有价值的候选药物如瑞德西韦进行临床试验。中国采取的旅行禁令和隔离等干预措施有效减轻了疫情蔓延。     

用于临床新型冠状病毒核酸检测的分子诊断新技术

目前新型冠状病毒肺炎(corona virus disease 2019, COVID-19)在全球仍呈现大流行趋势,该病潜伏期长、传染性强,给全世界人民的健康安全带来严重威胁。新型冠状病毒(severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus2, SARS-CoV-2)核酸检测作为COVID-19确诊的重要依据之一,在疫情防控工作中发挥了巨大的作用。截至2020年8月17日,国家药品监督管理局已应急批准15个新型冠状病毒核酸检测试剂盒,其中10个试剂盒是以逆转录-实时荧光定量PCR (RT-qPCR)为主要技术原理,其余试剂盒分别采用了不同于RT-qPCR的5种分子诊断技术。本文对上述检测试剂盒所使用的技术原理、反应时间、优缺点等方面进行了介绍,以期为COVID-19及类似传染病的快速筛查、确诊、防控提供更多的方案思路。     

某起新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情的流行病学分析

目的:通过分析一起新型冠状病毒肺炎(coronavirus disease 2019,COVID-19)聚集性疫情病例的流行病学特征,为疫情防控提供科学参考依据。方法:以新型冠状病毒肺炎防控技术方案的相关内容为依据,对一起聚集性疫情病例发病、就诊、接触方式及代际传播等进行描述性流行病学分析。结果:该起聚集性疫情涉及6例确诊病例,波及人数为98人,感染率为5.10%(5/98),其中男性3例、女性3例,年龄25~72岁,临床表现为发热4例、乏力2例、干咳2例、咳痰1例、呼吸困难1例、呕吐1例、腹泻1例、肌肉酸痛1例,临床表现严重程度分为普通型5例,重型1例,从发病到诊断平均时间间隔5.3 d,从诊断到报告平均时间间隔1.2 h,本起疫情暴露场所为家庭,以近距离飞沫或密切接触为接触方式传播的,潜伏期中位数7 d(6 d~12 d)。指示病例为男性、51岁,二代病例共4例,三代病例1例。结论:本起聚集性疫情以家庭为暴露场所,且以近距离飞沫或密切接触为接触方式传播,通过加强疫情预警、监测,对病例早发现、早报告、早隔离、早治疗以及对其密切接触者的严格筛查和管理,达到有效防控疫情发生、发展及防止蔓延。     

本期导读

自2019年12月以来,新型冠状病毒肺炎在全球蔓延,2020年1月30日,世界卫生组织(World Health Organization,WHO)将新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情列为"国际关注的突发公共卫生事件",我国也将该病作为急性呼吸道传染病纳入《中华人民共和国传染病防治法》规定的乙类传染病,并按照甲类传染病管理。2020年2月11日,WHO正式将新型冠状病毒肺炎命名为COVID-19(Corona Virus Disease 2019)。国际病毒分类委员会将该病毒命名为严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒(severe acute respiratory syndrome coromavirus 2,SARS-CoV-2)。截止2020年8月28日全球已累计确诊24356983人,累计死亡826791人。严重危害着人类的健康和生命安全。虽然中国政府采取了最强有力的措施,社会各界一起抗击疫情,取得了显著成效。但是由于目前COVID-19疫苗尚未上市,也无特效药物,COVID-19的全球快速蔓延势头仍没有得到有效遏制。世界各国的科学家、医学家们正在努力开发针对SARS-CoV-2和COVID-19的安全有效的预防疫苗和治疗方法。     

重组SARS-CoV-2刺突S1-Fc融合蛋白在非人灵长类动物中诱导高水平的中和反应

正COVID-19疫情已经在全球大流行,全球确诊病例超过200万,死亡人数超过12.6万人。在本研究中,作者检测了CHO表达的重组SARS-CoV-2 S1-Fc融合蛋白作为潜在COVID-19候选疫苗成分在小鼠、兔和猴中的免疫原性。作者证明了S1-Fc融合蛋白具有极强的免疫原性,第7天观察到的强抗体滴度结果证明了这一点。使用假病毒中和试验检测S1-Fc融合蛋白免疫家兔后,第14天观察到强的病毒中和活性。最重要的是,在不到20天的时间里,     

Spatial analysis of COVID-19 spread in Iran: Insights into geographical and structural transmission determinants at a province level

The Islamic Republic of Iran reported its first COVID-19 cases by 19^th February 2020, since then it has become one of the most affected countries, with more than 73,000 cases and 4,585 deaths to this date. Spatial modeling could be used to approach an understanding of structural and sociodemographic factors that have impacted COVID-19 spread at a province-level in Iran. Therefore, in the present paper, we developed a spatial statistical approach to describe how COVID-19 cases are spatially distributed and to identify significant spatial clusters of cases and how socioeconomic and climatic features of Iranian provinces might predict the number of cases. The analyses are applied to cumulative cases of the disease from February 19^th to March 18^th. They correspond to obtaining maps associated with quartiles for rates of COVID-19 cases smoothed through a Bayesian technique and relative risks, the calculation of global (Moran’s I) and local indicators of spatial autocorrelation (LISA), both univariate and bivariate, to derive significant clustering, and the fit of a multivariate spatial lag model considering a set of variables potentially affecting the presence of the disease. We identified a cluster of provinces with significantly higher rates of COVID-19 cases around Tehran (p-value< 0.05), indicating that the COVID-19 spread within Iran was spatially correlated. Urbanized, highly connected provinces with older population structures and higher average temperatures were the most susceptible to present a higher number of COVID-19 cases (p-value < 0.05). Interestingly, literacy is a factor that is associated with a decrease in the number of cases (p-value < 0.05), which might be directly related to health literacy and compliance with public health measures. These features indicate that social distancing, protecting older adults, and vulnerable populations, as well as promoting health literacy, might be useful to reduce SARS-CoV-2 spread in Iran. One limitation of our analysis is that the most updated information we found concerning socioeconomic and climatic features is not for 2020, or even for a same year, so that the obtained associations should be interpreted with caution. Our approach could be applied to model COVID-19 outbreaks in other countries with similar characteristics or in case of an upturn in COVID-19 within Iran.     

Contribution of traditional Chinese medicine to the treatment of COVID-19

COVID-19 as an epidemic disease has spread across the planet since December 2019. The somber situation reminds each country to take actions in preventing the spreading of the virus. China as one of the early affected countries has been fighting against the novel coronavirus with the achievements of nearly 80,000 cured confirmed patients. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has made contributions to the treatment of COVID-19 because of its efficacy and comprehensive therapeutic theory. In this commentary, the advantage, etiology and mechanism of TCM therapy were discussed in the aspect of its functions in reducing the harms brought by COVID-19 to human beings.     

Focus: Preventive Medicine: The Impact of the Social Distancing Policy on COVID-19 Incidence Cases and Deaths in Iran from February 2020 to January 2021: Insights from an Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Background: In December 2019, a viral outbreak occurred in China, and rapidly spread out worldwide. Due to the lack of immediately available vaccines and effective drugs, many policy- and decision-makers have focused on non-pharmacological methods, including social distancing. This study was aimed at assessing the effects of the implementation of this policy in Iran, one of the countries most affected by COVID-19. We conducted a quasi-experimental study, utilizing the interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) approach. Methods: We collected daily data between February 20, 2020 and January 29, 2021, through governmental websites from 954 public hospitals and healthcare settings. The Iranian government launched the social distancing policy on March 27, 2020. Statistical analyses, including ITSA, were carried out with R software Version 3.6.1 (London, UK). Results: During the study period, 1,398,835 confirmed incidence cases and 57,734 deaths occurred. We found a decrease of -179.93 (95% CI: -380.11 to -20.25, P-value=0.078) confirmed incidence cases following the implementation of the social distancing policy, corresponding to a daily decrease in the trend of -31.17 (95% CI: -46.95 to -15.40, P-value=0.08). Moreover, we found a decrease of -28.28 (95% CI: -43.55 to -13.01, P-value=0.05) deaths, corresponding to a daily decrease in the trend of -4.52 (95% CI: -5.25 to -3.78, P-value=0.003). Conclusion: The growth rate of confirmed incidence cases and deaths from COVID-19 in Iran has decreased from March 27, 2020 to January 29, 2021, after the implementation of social distancing. By implementing this policy in all countries, the burden of COVID-19 may be mitigated.     

The COVID-19 outbreak in Sichuan,China: Epidemiology and impact of interventions

In January 2020, a COVID-19 outbreak was detected in Sichuan Province of China. Six weeks later, the outbreak was successfully contained. The aim of this work is to characterize the epidemiology of the Sichuan outbreak and estimate the impact of interventions in limiting SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We analyzed patient records for all laboratory-confirmed cases reported in the province for the period of January 21 to March 16, 2020. To estimate the basic and daily reproduction numbers, we used a Bayesian framework. In addition, we estimated the number of cases averted by the implemented control strategies. The outbreak resulted in 539 confirmed cases, lasted less than two months, and no further local transmission was detected after February 27. The median age of local cases was 8 years older than that of imported cases. We estimated R₀ at 2.4 (95% CI: 1.6–3.7). The epidemic was self-sustained for about 3 weeks before going below the epidemic threshold 3 days after the declaration of a public health emergency by Sichuan authorities. Our findings indicate that, were the control measures be adopted four weeks later, the epidemic could have lasted 49 days longer (95% CI: 31–68 days), causing 9,216 more cases (95% CI: 1,317–25,545).     

Prevention and treatment of COVID-19 using Traditional Chinese Medicine: A review

BackgroundA novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) outbreak in more than 200 countries recently caused viral pneumonia that was extremely infectious and pathogenic. The Chinese government proposes that both Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) and Western medicine can be used in combination to treat pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV2, and TCM effectively provides continuous prevention and treatment.MethodsThe present review analyzes and summarizes the prevention and treatment of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) with TCM. A classified analysis of the efficacy and advantages of TCM for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19 was performed, and the mechanisms of TCM in treating COVID-19 are summarized.ResultsTCM is effective in preventing COVID-19, and medical staff can prevent an iatrogenic infection by taking a decoction made based on the principles of TCM. As of March 13, 2020, new cases of COVID-19 in China have decreased in number to single digits. TCM's curative effect was outstanding, with a national participation rate of over 90%. More than 70,000 people were cured of COVID-19 and discharged from the hospital. Only approximately 10,000 patients are currently being treated, and the total treatment time is approximately 2 months.ConclusionsTCM is currently the best choice for the treatment and prevention of COVID-19, and it is expected that it will be promoted by countries around the world.     

Superposition of COVID-19 waves,anticipating a sustained wave,and lessons for the future

The 2019 coronavirus (COVID-19), also known as SARS-CoV-2, is highly pathogenic and virulent, and it spreads very quickly through human-to-human contact. In response to the growing number of cases, governments across the spectrum of affected countries have adopted different strategies in implementing control measures, in a hope to reduce the number of new cases. However, 5 months after the first confirmed case, countries like the United States of America (US) seems to be heading towards a trajectory that indicates a health care crisis. This is in stark contrast to the downward trajectory in Europe, China, and elsewhere in Asia, where the number of new cases has seen a decline ahead of an anticipated second wave. A data-driven approach reveals three key strategies in tackling COVID-19. Our work here has definitively evaluated these strategies and serves as a warning to the US, and more importantly, a guide for tackling future pandemics. Also see the video abstract here https://youtu.be/gPkCi2_7tWo     

新型冠状病毒疫苗研究策略分析

新型冠状病毒(SARS-CoV-2)是一种可引起人新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的新发呼吸道病原体,与重症急性呼吸道综合症冠状病毒(SARS-CoV)和中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒(MERS-CoV)同属于β-冠状病毒,具有较高的传染性和一定的致死率。2019年12月在我国武汉被发现,随后蔓延到我国大部分省份,给我国人民健康和经济发展造成巨大损失。疫苗接种是预防和控制传染病的常规和有效手段,国内外多个机构已启动COVID-19疫苗研究工作。文中基于SARS和MERS疫苗研究的经验和教训,对COVID-19疫苗的研究策略和需要注意的关键问题进行了阐述,为相关研究人员提供参考。     

Characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a medium-sized city with traditional communities during the early COVID-19 epidemic in China

The nationwide COVID-19 epidemic ended in 2020, a few months after its outbreak in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019. Most COVID-19 cases occurred in Hubei Province, with a few local outbreaks in other provinces of China. A few studies have reported the early SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in several large cities or provinces of China. However, information regarding the early epidemics in small and medium-sized cities, where there are still traditionally large families and community culture is more strongly maintained and thus, transmission profiles may differ, is limited. In this study, we characterized 60 newly sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Anyang as a representative of small and medium-sized Chinese cities, compared them with more than 400 reference genomes from the early outbreak, and studied the SARS-CoV-2 transmission profiles. Genomic epidemiology revealed multiple SARS-CoV-2 introductions in Anyang and a large-scale expansion of the epidemic because of the large family size. Moreover, our study revealed two transmission patterns in a single outbreak, which were attributed to different social activities. We observed the complete dynamic process of single-nucleotide polymorphism development during community transmission and found that intrahost variant analysis was an effective approach to studying cluster infections. In summary, our study provided new SARS-CoV-2 transmission profiles representative of small and medium-sized Chinese cities as well as information on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 strains during the early COVID-19 epidemic in China.     

Genetic tracing of HCoV-19 for the re-emerging outbreak of COVID-19 in Beijing,China

The ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)caused by a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2,also named as 2019-nCoV or HCoV-19)poses an unprecedented threat to public health(Zhu et al.,2020;Wang et al.,2020;Jiang et al.,2020).The novel HCoV-19 virus has rapidly spread into multiple countries across the world since it was first reported in December 2019.The World Health Organization(WHO)declared COVID-19 as a pandemic on 11th March 2020.As of 4th July,over 10 million confirmed COVID-19 cases have been reported in over 200 countries/regions with more than 0.5 million deaths,including 85,287 documented cases and 4,648 deaths in China(WHO,2020a).