生态系统服务与景观格局集成研究综述

生态系统服务是综合科学和政策应用的有效工具,可用于应对人类干扰下的景观和生态系统服务的快速退化等复杂生态环境问题。综述生态系统服务与景观格局集成的学科发展、基础理论和模型开发的进展与存在的问题,建立可用的集成建模框架,并提出知识集成的概念框架:1)在要素层,"政策-决策—景观—生态系统服务—社会经济系统"的跨学科知识反馈环是集成理论基础; 2)在模型层,结构化、多层次的集成模拟模型是核心方法; 3)在数据层,多源数据集成是模拟模型的数据基础。集成生态系统服务与景观格局为区域生态环境治理实践提供了科学参考,能更好地应对生态系统服务科学与应用的挑战。     

森林景观生态研究现状与展望

综述了国内外森林景观及其动态研究的4个领域：森林景观管理与景观质量控制、森林景观格局与功能相互关系、森林景观生态过程模拟模型和决策模型、河岸景观生态的研究。并进一步指出了我国在森林景观生态研究领域中存在的问题：森林景观的研究基础不足,研究手段、方法相对落后,研究案例和成果有限。同时,还提出了森林景观生态研究的发展方向。     

农作物景观生态研究:概念框架与研究方向

针对当前农业系统中农作物景观变化迅速、人地关系趋于复杂、粮食安全保障需求迫切，提出景观生态学和农业科学交叉产生的农作物景观生态研究这一新兴研究方向。通过构建农作物景观生态研究的概念框架，辨明农业生产中复杂的景观等级结构，为农业可持续发展提供理论依据。综述从农业景观到农作物景观的研究变化，指出农作物景观具有高动态性、尺度性和格局复杂特征。针对由种植者、消费者、耕地及其周边自然环境组成的农业景观，需要遵循相应的生态和农业经济发展规律，研究农作物种植格局变化、农作物的社会-生态效应和农作物种植可持续性的景观生态途径。重点开展以下四个研究方面的内容，农作物景观时空动态及其形成机理、农作物种植的多功能评价与权衡、景观农艺管理措施及情景模拟、可持续的农作物景观生态评价。从而构建"格局-过程-服务-管理-可持续性"的农作物景观生态研究范式，为农业可持续发展提供综合的空间分析与管理途径，为实现农业农村现代化与城乡人类福祉提升提供科学支撑。     

城市森林景观格局与过程研究进展

大规模的城市化进程,改变了城市以及周边区域的景观格局,显著影响着城市森林生态系统的结构、过程与功能.景观尺度上的城市森林景观格局与生态过程研究已经成为当前城市森林学的研究热点.在阐明城市森林及其景观格局与过程概念的基础上,综述了国内外城市森林景观格局与过程的研究内容、研究方法的进展情况,指出了以下几个方面有望成为今后城市森林景观研究的发展方向:景观尺度上的城市森林系统能流、物质循环等生态学过程研究;城市森林景观格局演变的社会驱动力研究;基于生态服务功能的城市森林规划研究;半都市化地区的森林景观格局与过程研究;基于空间显式景观模型的城市森林景观格局与过程模块开发.     

河流景观生态服务供给与需求/消费的互馈机制

河流景观系统孕育了人类文明,为人类社会提供类型多样的生态系统服务。其本身是一个自然景观过程和社会经济过程高度耦合的社会-生态系统,具有极高的空间异质性、时间动态和鲜明的组织尺度等级结构。当前,对河流景观系统这种特点所决定的生态系统服务供给与需求/消费互馈的机制研究不够深入,普遍缺乏从过程角度刻画生态服务供给与需求/消费互馈关系及其时空异质性和尺度特征。生态服务供给、需求和消费产生于社会-生态系统,是社会-生态耦合的纽带。阐述了河流景观生态服务供给和需求/消费的时空异质性,阐释了它们时空耦合机制和尺度特征,梳理了当前对生态服务供给、需求/消费互馈机理研究的不足。认为未来需要在社会-生态系统的框架下,从景观结构和生态过程出发,融合景观生态过程和社会过程来深入认识河流景观系统的生态服务供给与区内人类对生态服务的需求/消费之间的互馈机制。未来应重点关注：（1）河流景观结构和过程决定的生态服务供给和消费的空间分异及驱动机制;（2）河流生态服务传输的自然和人文载体及其耦合格局;（3）将生态服务需求/消费通过景观结构和生态过程对生态服务供给的反馈融入生态服务评估的方法框架,研发基于生态服务供给和需求/消费的社会-生态互馈过程模型。     

景观空间异质性对生态系统服务形成与供给的影响

景观空间异质性与生态系统服务的关系极为密切,适当调整景观空间异质性有助于生态系统服务的持续形成与稳定供给。研究景观空间异质性和生态系统服务形成与供给之间的相互影响作用及响应机制具有重要的理论与现实意义,是保护生物多样性、管理生态系统服务与优化景观空间配置的基础。现有研究大多在不同尺度上探讨了景观格局与生态过程或生态系统服务间的相互影响关系,而缺乏景观格局-生态过程-生态系统服务三者间有效联结等方面的研究。景观空间异质性是怎样直接或间接地作用于生态系统服务形成与供给的,目前还没有一个较为明确的解释。因此,通过分析国内外文献,回顾了景观格局或景观空间异质性与生态系统服务之间关系的研究进展、研究内容和研究方法;从景观组成、景观构型的变化入手,讨论了景观空间异质性对生态系统服务形成与供给的影响及其强度,并认为景观组成异质性变化能够直接影响生态系统服务,而景观构型异质性变化会通过改变生态过程而间接影响生态系统服务;阐述了景观空间异质性在影响生态系统服务形成与供给的同时,也使生态系统服务在空间上产生了异质性分布,并从自然因素和人为因素两个方面对其进行解释;强调了尺度问题在景观空间异质性与生态系统服务研究中的重要性;最后,明确了对生态系统服务形成与供给的景观空间异质性影响研究不仅有助于生态系统服务的维持与调节,也能更深层次地揭示其中的生态学意义。     

“源”“汇”景观理论及其生态学意义

格局与过程的关系是景观生态学研究中的核心内容.景观格局指数是定量分析景观格局与生态过程的主要方法,但由于许多景观格局指数难以将格局与过程有机融合在一起而陷入困境,探讨景观格局分析中有效表征生态过程的理论与方法,对于景观生态学的发展具有积极意义.基于大气污染中的“源”“汇”理论,在已有研究基础上,提出了“源”“汇”景观的概念和理论.认为根据不同景观类型的功能,可以将他们划分为“源”“汇”两种景观类型,从而将过程的内涵融于景观格局分析中.该理论认为：（1）在格局与过程研究中,异质景观可以分为“源”“汇”景观两种类型,其中“源”景观是指那些能促进过程发展的景观类型,“汇”景观是那些能阻止或延缓过程发展的景观类型;（2）“源”“汇”景观的性质是相对的,对于某一过程的“源”景观,可能是另一过程的“汇”景观,“源”“汇”景观的分析必须针对特定的过程;（3）“源”“汇”景观区分的关键在于判断景观类型在生态过程演变中所起的作用,是正向推动作用还是负向滞缓作用;（4）不同类型“源”（或者“汇”）景观对于同一种生态过程的贡献是不同的,在分析景观格局对生态过程的影响时需要考虑这种作用的差异;（5）“源”“汇”景观理论可以应用于非点源污染、生物多样性保护、城市热岛效应等不同领域.“源”“汇”景观理论提出的主要目的是探究不同景观类型在空间上的动态平衡对生态过程影响,从而找到适合一个地区的景观空间格局.这一理论的提出有助于推动景观格局与生态过程研究的深入,希望以此为基础,通过大量的实证研究,丰富和完善“源”、“汇”景观的理论和方法.     

生物多样性与生态系统服务情景模拟研究进展

生物多样性和生态系统服务情景模拟是指对未来生物多样性和生态系统服务变化轨迹的定量估计,二者相互关联并为长期、稳定的保护和恢复生态系统提供了重要科学依据。梳理生物多样性以及生态系统服务预测情景的核心观点,讨论基于生物多样性和生态系统服务情景模拟的保护决策支持途径,以期服务于我国生物多样性与生态系统服务预测研究的发展和深化。研究凝练结果如下：物种分布模型需要进行更规范的评价以明晰其对具体对象的适用性,生态系统预测模型亟待在关系结构的基础上嵌入更多的生态系统过程和社会经济过程,生态系统服务评估模型有必要强化对生物多样性、生态系统服务、人类福祉级联特征的刻画;全球气候变化驱动了未来区域生物多样性的大幅改变;土地利用则是陆地生态系统服务预测中的核心驱动变量。生态区划与区域尺度情景模拟、景观尺度下的生态安全格局构建、基于社会生态网络的社区适应三点重要展望方向将对基于情景模拟的我国生态系统保护决策提供重要的理论和实践支持。     

山水林田湖草生态修复工程的社会-生态系统(SES)分析框架及应用——以浙江省钱塘江源头区域为例

“山水林田湖草生命共同体”是人与自然和谐共处的指导原则,也是人类实现可持续发展的有效实践路径。根据Ostrom提出的社会-生态系统（SES）框架,以浙江省钱塘江源头区域为研究区,构建集流域、陆地和人类活动为一体的社会-生态系统（SES）概念框架,为生态修复工程提供一个问题导向的分析策略。研究发现基于Ostrom构建的钱塘江源头区域山水林田湖草生态修复工程的SES框架,可以用来诊断关键问题、分析影响因素、设定行动情景和评估结果,从而形成完整的实施和解决问题策略。由诊断关键问题得出,该区域面临地质灾害多发、水土流失、环境污染、生物结构单一等多重问题,而人类活动如城市扩张、过度开发自然资源、污染物排放等则是造成社会-生态系统失衡的主要因素。通过行动情景设置将SES框架中涉及的影响因素、解决途径、评价标准、期望的成效以及反馈机制等进行梳理,对研究区的社会-生态系统进行全面分析。根据设立的评价体系对生态修复工程进行生态环境和社会经济效果的动态评估,并不断地根据评价结果进行修正以获得最佳的预期成效。该框架为解决钱塘江源头区域山水林田湖草生态修复工程所面临的问题提供了一个系统的解决方案,并可根据研究区的特点进行相应调整,是一个具有强适用性的社会-生态系统分析框架。     

庐山森林景观格局变化的长期动态模拟

在以植被格局为基础的森林景观动态分析中,可通过森林演替推断景观格局的动态变化以及相应的景观生态过程。运用空间直观景观模型LANDIS,以庐山风景区为案例地,模拟森林植被在未来300 a的自然演替动态,在此基础上选取斑块面积比、聚集度、分维数、多样性指数和均匀度指数等景观格局指数,分析森林景观格局随森林演替的动态变化。结果表明：（1）阔叶林树种的绝对优势地位保证其斑块面积比呈现持续增长的稳定趋势,森林植被将朝着地带性常绿阔叶林方向演替;（2）景观聚集度特征方面,阔叶林树种在前150 a缓慢增长,而后150 a保持相对稳定,杉木林一直保持平稳,毛竹林在整个模拟阶段一直在不断下降直至演替结束;（3）各优势树种植被斑块的分维数都保持在1-1.1之间,说明各景观斑块的边缘相对较规则且变化较小;（4）景观多样性指数呈现出先上升后缓慢下降的趋势,而均匀度指数则呈现出先下降后上升再缓慢下降的变化态势。景观格局指数的变化特征与植被向顶极群落演替的趋势相吻合,该模拟结果可运用到庐山森林景观的管理实践中。从长远来看,应该继续实行严格的封山育林政策。     

From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models

The ecosystem service concept has emphasized the role of people within socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this paper, we review and discuss alternative ways of representing people, their behaviour and decision-making processes in SES models using an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach. We also explore how ABM can be empirically grounded using information from social survey. The capacity for ABM to be generalized beyond case studies represents a crucial next step in modelling SESs, although this comes with considerable intellectual challenges. We propose the notion of human functional types, as an analogy of plant functional types, to support the expansion (scaling) of ABM to larger areas. The expansion of scope also implies the need to represent institutional agents in SES models in order to account for alternative governance structures and policy feedbacks. Further development in the coupling of human-environment systems would contribute considerably to better application and use of the ecosystem service concept.     

Living within dynamic social-ecological freshwater systems: System parameters and the role of ecological engineering

The objective of ecological engineering is to design sustainable ecosystems that integrate human communities and their natural environment for the benefit of both. In this paper, we illustrate how social-ecological modeling can be used as a tool to clarify this objective at a landscape scale for freshwater systems. Coupled social-ecological systems (SESs) are open, dynamic systems subject to both ecological and socioeconomic perturbations. Here we demonstrate the interactive effects of social and technological uncertainties on SES dynamics over time. Additionally, we integrate research on ecosystem stability, social-ecological modeling, and ecological engineering to offer guidance for research at the human-environment interface. Based on a case study of Lake Erie's Sandusky watershed, we use an integrated human-biophysical model to investigate the influence of two parameters on SES dynamics: (1) regional societal preferences that impact watershed management and (2) technological innovation that alters agricultural nutrient efficiency. Our results illustrate ways in which SES dynamics and optimum management strategies depend on societal preferences within the region, indicating a key area of uncertainty for future investigation. As guidance for SES restoration, our model results also illustrate the conditions under which technological change that increases nutrient efficiency on farms can and cannot create a win-win, or increase both human welfare and SES resistance to eutrophication simultaneously. Using these results, we elucidate the value of ecological engineering and offer guidance for assessments of ecological engineering projects using social-ecological modeling.     

基于文化与政治生态学的社会生态系统演进机制研究 ——以杭州与西湖为例

科学认识社会生态系统演进机制是对其进行有效管理的重要基础。以文化与政治生态学为理论基础,提出适合杭州—西湖社会生态系统的综合研究框架,识别了杭州—西湖社会生态系统的5个演进阶段,并分析出系统演进中的3种潜在状态。自然、政治、经济以及社会驱动力是影响杭州—西湖社会生态系统的主导因素,人类行为影响整个生态系统中扰动的频率、大小和形式并改变西湖生态系统的结构与功能,进而影响西湖为城市提供生态系统服务的潜能。在不同历史时期,基于自然、社会、经济、文化等多层面的需求,西湖在不同系统状态下为城市供给不同类别和质量的生态系统服务,总体而言供给与调节服务比例逐渐下降,文化服务逐渐上升,并且后者逐步成为最主要的生态系统服务类别。杭州与西湖在长期的互馈共生中建立了社会生态系统的自适应性调节机制,其背后的生态智慧可为现代风景园林规划提供重要启示。     

Environmental Impact Assessment of the Heterogeneity in Consumers’ Usage Behavior: An Agent‐Based Modeling Approach

The aim of this study is to develop a framework for understanding the heterogeneity and uncertainties present in the usage phase of the product life cycle through utilizing the capabilities of an agent‐based modeling (ABM) technique. An ABM framework is presented to model consumers’ daily product usage decisions and to assess the corresponding electricity consumption patterns. The theory of planned behavior (TPB), with the addition of the habit construct, is used to model agents’ decision‐making criteria. A case study is presented on the power management behavior of personal computer users and the possible benefits of using smart metering and feedback systems. The results of the simulation demonstrate that the utilization of smart metering and feedback systems can promote the energy conservation behaviors and reduce the total PC electricity consumption of households by 20%.     

External shocks,agent interactions,and endogenous feedbacks — Investigating system resilience with a stylized land use model

Dynamics of coupled Social-Ecological Systems (SES) result from the interplay of society and ecology. To assess SES resilience, we constructed an Agent-Based Model (ABM) of a land use system as a stereotypical example of SES and investigated how resilience of the represented system is affected by both external disturbances and internal dynamics. The model explicitly considered different aspects of resilience in a framework derived from literature, which includes “resilience to”, “resilience of”, “resilience at”, “resilience due to”, and “indicators of resilience”. External disturbances were implemented as shocks in crop yields. Internal dynamics comprised of two types of social interaction between agents (learning and cooperation), an ecological feedback of soil depletion and an economic feedback of agglomeration benefits. We systematically varied these mechanisms and measured indicators that reflected spatial, social, and economic resilience. Results showed that (1) internal mechanisms increased the ability of the system to recover from external shocks, (2) feedbacks resulted in different regimes of crop cultivation, each with a distinctive set of functions, and (3) resilience is not a generic system property, but strongly depends on what system function is considered. We recommend future studies to include internal dynamics, especially feedbacks, and to systematically assess them across different aspects of resilience.     

Post-Hoc Pattern-Oriented Testing and Tuning of an Existing Large Model: Lessons from the Field Vole

Pattern-oriented modeling (POM) is a general strategy for modeling complex systems. In POM, multiple patterns observed at different scales and hierarchical levels are used to optimize model structure, to test and select sub-models of key processes, and for calibration. So far, POM has been used for developing new models and for models of low to moderate complexity. It remains unclear, though, whether the basic idea of POM to utilize multiple patterns, could also be used to test and possibly develop existing and established models of high complexity. Here, we use POM to test, calibrate, and further develop an existing agent-based model of the field vole (Microtus agrestis), which was developed and tested within the ALMaSS framework. This framework is complex because it includes a high-resolution representation of the landscape and its dynamics, of the individual’s behavior, and of the interaction between landscape and individual behavior. Results of fitting to the range of patterns chosen were generally very good, but the procedure required to achieve this was long and complicated. To obtain good correspondence between model and the real world it was often necessary to model the real world environment closely. We therefore conclude that post-hoc POM is a useful and viable way to test a highly complex simulation model, but also warn against the dangers of over-fitting to real world patterns that lack details in their explanatory driving factors. To overcome some of these obstacles we suggest the adoption of open-science and open-source approaches to ecological simulation modeling.     

Habitat percolation transition undermines sustainability in social-ecological agricultural systems

Steady increases in human population size and resource consumption are driving rampant agricultural expansion and intensification. Habitat loss caused by agriculture puts the integrity of ecosystems at risk and threatens the persistence of human societies that rely on ecosystem services. We develop a spatially explicit model describing the coupled dynamics of an agricultural landscape and human population size to assess the effect of different land-use management strategies, defined by agricultural clustering and intensification, on the sustainability of the social-ecological system. We show how agricultural expansion can cause natural habitats to undergo a percolation transition leading to abrupt habitat fragmentation that feedbacks on human's decision making, aggravating landscape degradation. We found that agricultural intensification to spare land from conversion is a successful strategy only in highly natural landscapes, and that clustering agricultural land is the most effective measure to preserve large connected natural fragments, prevent severe fragmentation and thus, enhance sustainability.