森林-农业景观格局变化的社会-生态系统模拟模型方法进展

社会-生态系统（SES）模拟模型是景观格局分析和决策的有效工具,能表征景观格局变化的社会-生态效应及景观决策的复杂反馈机制。文献综述了森林-农业景观格局的SES模型方法进展发现：（1）多数模型对景观过程与社会经济决策的反馈关系分析不足;（2）应集成多种情景模拟和景观效应分析方法,完善现有SES模型的理论方法基础;（3）通过集成格局优化模型和自主体模型会有效改进SES模型功能,具体途径包括：集成情景-生态效应的景观格局模拟方法、完善景观决策的理论基础、加强集成模型的不确定性分析、降低模型复杂性和综合定性-定量数据等。研究结果有助于理解多尺度森林-农业景观格局在社会-生态系统中的重要作用,能更好地支持跨学科集成模型开发与应用。     

基于文化与政治生态学的社会生态系统演进机制研究 ——以杭州与西湖为例

科学认识社会生态系统演进机制是对其进行有效管理的重要基础。以文化与政治生态学为理论基础,提出适合杭州—西湖社会生态系统的综合研究框架,识别了杭州—西湖社会生态系统的5个演进阶段,并分析出系统演进中的3种潜在状态。自然、政治、经济以及社会驱动力是影响杭州—西湖社会生态系统的主导因素,人类行为影响整个生态系统中扰动的频率、大小和形式并改变西湖生态系统的结构与功能,进而影响西湖为城市提供生态系统服务的潜能。在不同历史时期,基于自然、社会、经济、文化等多层面的需求,西湖在不同系统状态下为城市供给不同类别和质量的生态系统服务,总体而言供给与调节服务比例逐渐下降,文化服务逐渐上升,并且后者逐步成为最主要的生态系统服务类别。杭州与西湖在长期的互馈共生中建立了社会生态系统的自适应性调节机制,其背后的生态智慧可为现代风景园林规划提供重要启示。     

A prolegomenon to nonlinear empiricism in the human behavioral sciences

We propose a general framework for integrating theory and empiricism in human evolutionary ecology. We specifically emphasize the joint use of stochastic nonlinear dynamics and information theory. To illustrate critical ideas associated with historical contingency and complex dynamics, we review recent research on social preferences and social learning from behavioral economics. We additionally examine recent work on ecological approaches in history, the modeling of chaotic populations, and statistical application of information theory.     

Analysis and management of multiple ecosystem services within a social-ecological context

The assessment of ecosystem services (ESS) requires approaches that are capable to deal with the complexity of social-ecological systems (SES). A new viewpoint is proposed, in which the social-ecological perspective of Ostrom’s SES framework is used to describe the flow of ESS, through the identification of the social and ecological elements involved. Two types of ESS flow emerge from this analysis, depending on the way in which the elements of ESS supply (resource system and resource units) and demand (actors) interact: (i) a “direct flow type” in which the resource units deliver the ESS through some specific ecological functions (e.g. wetlands providing carbon sequestration), and (ii) a “mediated flow type” in which the resource units become themselves the ESS when “used” by means of human activities (e.g. fish harvested through fishing activities). The identification of activities is crucial to understand the interactions between ESS, because of the feedbacks they produce on the ecosystem functioning and thus on the provision of the same or other ESS. In addition, these feedbacks can depend on temporal aspects of ESS provision. On these regards, a hypothesis is proposed according to which a time lag can exist between the ESS supply-side and flow in human-modified SES. Altogether, this social-ecological analysis of ESS can contribute to focus the management strategies on the control of impacting activities and on the maintenance of those processes which underpin ESS’ provision, thus contributing to the implementation of an ecosystem-based management of SES. These aspects are discussed in the light of the Venice lagoon example.     

The dynamical implications of human behaviour on a social-ecological harvesting model

The dynamic aspects of human harvesting behaviour are often overlooked in resource management, such that models often neglect the complexities of dynamic human effort. Some researchers have recognized this, and a recent push has been made to understand how human behaviour and ecological systems interact through dynamic social-ecological systems. Here, we use a recent example of a social-ecological dynamical systems model to investigate the relationship between harvesting behaviour and the dynamics and stability of a harvested resource, and search for general rules in how relatively simple human behaviours can either stabilize or destabilize resource dynamics and yield. Our results suggest that weak to moderate behavioural and effort responses tend to stabilize dynamics by decreasing return times to equilibria or reducing the magnitude of cycles; however, relatively strong human impacts can readily lead to human-driven cycles, chaos, long transients and alternate states. Importantly, we further show that human-driven cycles are characteristically different from typical resource-driven cycles and, therefore, may be differentiated in real ecosystems. Given the potentially dramatic implications of harvesting on resource dynamics, it becomes critical to better understand how human behaviour determines harvesting effort through dynamic social-ecological systems.     

山水林田湖草生态修复工程的社会-生态系统(SES)分析框架及应用——以浙江省钱塘江源头区域为例

“山水林田湖草生命共同体”是人与自然和谐共处的指导原则,也是人类实现可持续发展的有效实践路径。根据Ostrom提出的社会-生态系统（SES）框架,以浙江省钱塘江源头区域为研究区,构建集流域、陆地和人类活动为一体的社会-生态系统（SES）概念框架,为生态修复工程提供一个问题导向的分析策略。研究发现基于Ostrom构建的钱塘江源头区域山水林田湖草生态修复工程的SES框架,可以用来诊断关键问题、分析影响因素、设定行动情景和评估结果,从而形成完整的实施和解决问题策略。由诊断关键问题得出,该区域面临地质灾害多发、水土流失、环境污染、生物结构单一等多重问题,而人类活动如城市扩张、过度开发自然资源、污染物排放等则是造成社会-生态系统失衡的主要因素。通过行动情景设置将SES框架中涉及的影响因素、解决途径、评价标准、期望的成效以及反馈机制等进行梳理,对研究区的社会-生态系统进行全面分析。根据设立的评价体系对生态修复工程进行生态环境和社会经济效果的动态评估,并不断地根据评价结果进行修正以获得最佳的预期成效。该框架为解决钱塘江源头区域山水林田湖草生态修复工程所面临的问题提供了一个系统的解决方案,并可根据研究区的特点进行相应调整,是一个具有强适用性的社会-生态系统分析框架。     

Modeling plant diseases under climate change: evolutionary perspectives

Infectious plant diseases are a major threat to global agricultural productivity, economic development, and ecological integrity. There is widespread concern that these social and natural disasters caused by infectious plant diseases may escalate with climate change and computer modeling offers a unique opportunity to address this concern. Here, we analyze the intrinsic problems associated with current modeling strategies and highlight the need to integrate evolutionary principles into polytrophic, eco-evolutionary frameworks to improve predictions. We particularly discuss how evolutionary shifts in functional trade-offs, relative adaptability between plants and pathogens, ecosystems, and climate preferences induced by climate change may feedback to future plant disease epidemics and how technological advances can facilitate the generation and integration of this relevant knowledge for better modeling predictions.     

Hydrological regulation drives regime shifts: evidence from paleolimnology and ecosystem modeling of a large shallow Chinese lake

Quantitative evidence of sudden shifts in ecological structure and function in large shallow lakes is rare, even though they provide essential benefits to society. Such ‘regime shifts’ can be driven by human activities which degrade ecological stability including water level control (WLC) and nutrient loading. Interactions between WLC and nutrient loading on the long‐term dynamics of shallow lake ecosystems are, however, often overlooked and largely underestimated, which has hampered the effectiveness of lake management. Here, we focus on a large shallow lake (Lake Chaohu) located in one of the most densely populated areas in China, the lower Yangtze River floodplain, which has undergone both WLC and increasing nutrient loading over the last several decades. We applied a novel methodology that combines consistent evidence from both paleolimnological records and ecosystem modeling to overcome the hurdle of data insufficiency and to unravel the drivers and underlying mechanisms in ecosystem dynamics. We identified the occurrence of two regime shifts: one in 1963, characterized by the abrupt disappearance of submerged vegetation, and another around 1980, with strong algal blooms being observed thereafter. Using model scenarios, we further disentangled the roles of WLC and nutrient loading, showing that the 1963 shift was predominantly triggered by WLC, whereas the shift ca. 1980 was attributed to aggravated nutrient loading. Our analysis also shows interactions between these two stressors. Compared to the dynamics driven by nutrient loading alone, WLC reduced the critical P loading and resulted in earlier disappearance of submerged vegetation and emergence of algal blooms by approximately 26 and 10 years, respectively. Overall, our study reveals the significant role of hydrological regulation in driving shallow lake ecosystem dynamics, and it highlights the urgency of using multi‐objective management criteria that includes ecological sustainability perspectives when implementing hydrological regulation for aquatic ecosystems around the globe.     

Ecological specialization of mixotrophic plankton in a mixed water column

In recent years, the population dynamics of plankton in light- or nutrient-limited environments have been studied extensively. Their evolutionary dynamics, however, have received much less attention. Here, we used a modeling approach to study the evolutionary behavior of a population of plankton living in a mixed water column. Initially, the organisms are mixotrophic and thus have both autotrophic and heterotrophic abilities. Through evolution of their trophic preferences, however, they can specialize into separate autotrophs and heterotrophs. It was found that the light intensity gradient enables evolutionary branching and thus may result in the ecological specialization of the mixotrophs. By affecting the gradient, other environmental properties also acquire influence on this evolutionary process. Intermediate mixing intensities, large mixing depths, and high nutrient densities were found to facilitate evolutionary branching and thus specialization. Later results may explain why mixotrophs are often more dominant in oligotrophic systems while specialist strategies are associated with eutrophic systems.     

Beyond ecology: ecosystem restoration as a process for social-ecological transformation

Ecosystem restoration conventionally focuses on ecological targets. However, while ecological targets are crucial to mobilizing political, social, and financial capital, they do not encapsulate the need to: integrate social, economic, and ecological dimensions and systems approaches; reconcile global targets and local objectives; and measure the rate of progress toward multiple and synergistic goals. Restoration is better conceived as an inclusive social-ecological process that integrates diverse values, practices, knowledge, and restoration objectives across temporal and spatial scales and stakeholder groups. Taking a more process-based approach will ultimately enable greater social-ecological transformation, greater restoration effectiveness, and more long-lasting benefits to people and nature across time and place.     

Virtual special issue: Social-ecological systems research in tropical ecosystems

Biodiversity is declining globally, primarily due to anthropogenic threats. Therefore, effective conservation efforts must integrate human and environmental components. Social-ecological systems research is increasingly being adopted as a means of studying complex relationships between people and the environment. I assess how researchers are employing social-ecological systems approaches or frameworks to the study of tropical ecosystems. I reviewed articles published in Biotropica from 2010 through 2022 searching for research on social-ecological systems. A broad keyword search revealed only 2 articles using a variation of social-ecological systems, human-environment systems, or coupled human and natural systems. This contrasts with a growing number of articles published with these search terms in other conservation-related journals, primarily led by environmental scientists. After reviewing titles for all 1298 research articles published during this period, I selected 12 articles for inclusion in the virtual special issue “Social-Ecological Systems Research in Topical Ecosystems”. These articles cover a broad range of geographical locations, ecosystem types, species, and conservation themes. Social-ecological systems frameworks offer an integrated way to study complex relationships between humans and nature, yet this type of research appears under-utilized by authors in Biotropica. I offer seven guidelines for authors interested in pursuing this research such as developing collaborations between social and environmental scientists.     

Engineering role models: do non-human species have the answers?

A shift from traditional engineering approaches to ecologically-based techniques will require changing societal values regarding ‘how and what’ is defined as engineering and design. Non-human species offer many ecological engineering examples that are often beneficial to ecosystem function and other biota. For example, organisms known as ‘ecosystem engineers’ build, modify, and destroy habitat in their quest for food and survival. Similarly, ‘keystone species’ have greater impacts on community or ecosystem function than would be predicted from their abundance. The capacity of these types of organisms to affect ecosystems is great. They exert controlling influences over ecosystems and communities by altering resource allocation, creating habitats and modifying relative competitive advantages.Species’ effects in ecosystems, although context-dependent, can be evaluated as ‘beneficial’ or ‘detrimental’. The evaluation depends on whether effects on other species or ecosystem function are more or less desirable from a given perspective. Organisms with beneficial impacts facilitate the presence of other species, employ efficient nutrient cycling, and are sometimes characterized by specific mutualisms. In contrast, many cases of detrimental engineering are found from introduced (i.e., exotic) species and are characterized by a loss of species richness, a lack of nutrient retention and the degradation of ecosystem integrity. Species’ impacts on ecosystems and community traits have been quantified in ecological studies and can be used similarly to understand, design and model human engineering structures and impacts on the landscape. Emulation of species with beneficial impacts on ecosystems can provide powerful guidance to the goals of ecological engineering. Using role model organisms that have desirable effects on species diversity and ecosystem function will be important in developing alternatives to traditional engineering practices.     

Social-ecological Resilience Modeling: Water Stress Effects in the Bighorn Sheep Management System in Baja California Sur,Mexico

Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) management involves ecological and socioeconomic aspects, creating a social-ecological system (SES). Social-ecological thresholds can be identified in the system to assess its specific resilience in response to climate stressors. Thus, the aim of this study is to build a dynamic model to assess whether this system is resilient to a particular stressor (water stress). In this study, the SES is considered resilient if the bighorn population is sufficiently large to provide economic revenue to landowners and promote conservation action. We validate and formalize this model by conducting semistructured interviews to Bonfil ejido landowners located in Baja California Sur (BCS), Mexico, and to experts in the field of recreational hunting and wildlife management. To explore the changes in specific resilience in this SES, we conduct simulations to assess the impact of rainfall variability patterns on the system. Our results indicate that rainfall variations with respect to the historical record have the potential to disrupt both the species and the local economy and that the lack of adaptive capacity in both harvest and conservation strategies may affect the dynamics of the whole SES. Finally, this paper explores how adaptive wildlife conservation management strategies can enhance the resilience of both subsystems in this SES.     

Early Warning Signs in Social-Ecological Networks

A number of social-ecological systems exhibit complex behaviour associated with nonlinearities, bifurcations, and interaction with stochastic drivers. These systems are often prone to abrupt and unexpected instabilities and state shifts that emerge as a discontinuous response to gradual changes in environmental drivers. Predicting such behaviours is crucial to the prevention of or preparation for unwanted regime shifts. Recent research in ecology has investigated early warning signs that anticipate the divergence of univariate ecosystem dynamics from a stable attractor. To date, leading indicators of instability in systems with multiple interacting components have remained poorly investigated. This is a major limitation in the understanding of the dynamics of complex social-ecological networks. Here, we develop a theoretical framework to demonstrate that rising variance—measured, for example, by the maximum element of the covariance matrix of the network—is an effective leading indicator of network instability. We show that its reliability and robustness depend more on the sign of the interactions within the network than the network structure or noise intensity. Mutualistic, scale free and small world networks are less stable than their antagonistic or random counterparts but their instability is more reliably predicted by this leading indicator. These results provide new advances in multidimensional early warning analysis and offer a framework to evaluate the resilience of social-ecological networks.     

社会-生态网络方法研究进展

社会-生态系统是由一个或多个社会和生态子系统交互作用形成的复杂的、非线性的、动态耦合系统。理解社会与生态子系统之间的复杂交互关系对于实现有效、可持续的环境治理至关重要。社会-生态网络方法是网络理论在社会-生态交互作用研究中应用与发展的产物，在定量刻画社会-生态系统结构、分析系统动态变化、推动系统适应性治理等方面具有重大的应用潜力。系统梳理了国内外现有的社会-生态网络研究，首先从网络的类型、构建模式、分析方法3个方面介绍社会-生态网络方法，并阐述其在资源管理、社会-生态匹配、社会-生态适应性治理领域中的应用，探讨社会-生态网络方法在研究社会-生态交互作用中的优势和挑战，最后提出未来社会-生态网络研究的重点方向，即社会-生态网络的动态变化过程以及社会-生态网络结构与功能关系。研究旨在深化网络分析可用于描述人—自然关系的认识，为社会-生态系统的网络研究提供实践指导，以期促进社会-生态网络方法在我国社会-生态系统研究中的应用。     

The ecological effect of phenotypic plasticity — Analyzing complex interaction networks (COIN) with agent-based models

Analyzing complex dynamics of ecological systems is complicated by two important facts: First, phenotypic plasticity allows individual organisms to adapt their reaction norms in terms of morphology, anatomy, physiology and behavior to changing local environmental conditions and trophic relationships. Secondly, individual reactions and ecological dynamics are often determined by indirect interactions through reaction chains and networks involving feedback processes.

We present an agent-based modeling framework which allows to represent and analyze ecological systems that include phenotypic changes in individual performances and indirect interactions within heterogeneous and temporal changing environments. We denote this structure of interacting components as COmplex Interaction Network (COIN).

Three examples illustrate the potential of the system to analyze complex ecological processes that incorporate changing phenotypes on the individual level:

• A model on fish population dynamics of roach (Rutilus rutilus) leads to a differentiation in fish length resulting in a conspicuous distribution that influences reproduction capability and thus indirectly the fitness.

• Modeling the reproduction phase of the passerine bird Erithacus rubecula (European Robin) illustrates variation in the behavior of higher organisms in dependence of environmental factors. Changes in reproduction success and in the proportion of different activities are the results.

• The morphological reaction of plants to changes in fundamental environmental parameters is illustrated by the black alder (Alnus glutinosa) model. Specification of physiological processes and the interaction structure on the level of modules allow to represent the reaction to changes in irradiance and temperature accurately.

Applying the COIN-approach, individual plasticity emerges as a structural and functional implication in a self-organized manner. The examples illustrate the potential to integrate existing approaches to represent detailed and complex traits for higher order organisms and to combine ecological and evolutionary aspects.

Advancing urban ecological studies: Frameworks,concepts, and results from the Baltimore Ecosystem Study

Abstract Urban ecological studies have had a long history, but they have not been a component of mainstream ecology until recently. The growing interest of ecologists in urban systems provides an opportunity to articulate integrative frameworks, and identify research tools and approaches that can help achieve a broader ecological understanding of urban systems. Based on our experience in the Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES), Long‐term Ecological Research project, located in metropolitan Baltimore, Maryland, USA, we identify several frameworks that may be useful in comparative urban studies, and may be worthy of consideration in other integrative urban ecosystem studies: (i) spatial patch dynamics of biophysical and social factors; (ii) the watershed as an integrative tool; and (iii) the human ecosystem framework. These frameworks build on empirical research investigating urban biota, nutrient and energy budgets, ecological footprints of cities, as well as biotic classifications aimed at urban planning. These frameworks bring together perspectives, measurements, and models from biophysical and social sciences. We illustrate their application in the BES, which is designed to investigate (i) the structure and change of the urban ecosystem; (ii) the fluxes of matter, energy, capital, and population in the metropolis; and (iii) how ecological information affects the quality of the local and regional environments. Exemplary results concerning urban stream nutrient flux, the ability of riparian zones to process nitrate pollution, and the lags in the relationships between vegetation structure and socio‐economic factors in specific neighbourhoods are presented. The current advances in urban ecological studies have profited greatly from the variety of integrative frameworks and tools that have been tested and applied in urban areas over the last decade. The field is poised to make significant progress as a result of ongoing conceptual and empirical consolidation.     

流域水电开发对干热河谷社会-生态系统的影响及意义

西南干热河谷是我国重要生态脆弱区和经济发展落后区,流域大型水电开发是干热河谷重要的人类干扰活动,对生态脆弱区的社会-生态系统造成极大影响。社会-生态系统演变的方向和规律具有复杂性和非线性变化,又涉及到生态保护修复、能源安全、经济发展和乡村振兴等国家重大需求,因此,亟待加强流域社会-生态系统演变和驱动机制方面的研究。通过总结当前研究的进展和不足,提出了加强生态系统演变的长期监测和分析、深入研究流域社会经济演变规律和驱动机制、完善流域生态资产价值评估和生态补偿机制、构建流域社会-生态系统耦合理论与方法等对策建议,从而为脆弱生态区未来可持续发展提供科技支撑。     

Applications of ecological stoichiometry for sustainable acquisition of ecosystem services

Human activities have differentially altered biogeochemical cycling at local, regional and global scales. We propose that a stoichiometric approach, examining the fluxes of multiple elements and the ratio between them, may be a useful tool for better understanding human effects on ecosystem processes and services. The different scale of impacts of the elements carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus and the different nature of their biogeochemical cycles, imply a large variation of their stoichiometric ratios in space and time and thus divergent impacts on biota.
In this paper, we examine the effects of anthropogenic perturbations on nutrient ratios in ecosystems in two examples and one case study. Altered stoichiometry in agricultural systems (example 1) can affect not only crop yield and quality but also the interactions between plants and their pollinators, pests and pathogens. Human activities have also altered stoichiometry in coastal ecosystems (example 2). Increased N loading has especially lead to increased N:P and reduced Si:N ratios, with detrimental effects on ecosystem services derived from coastal pelagic food webs, such as fish yield and water quality. The terrestrial–aquatic linkage in stoichiometric alterations is illustrated with a case study, the Mississippi River watershed, where anthropogenic activities have caused stoichiometric changes that have propagated through the watershed into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Coupled with altered stoichiometric nutrient inputs are the inherent differences in variation and sensitivity of different ecosystems to anthropogenic disturbance. Furthermore, the connections among the components of a watershed may result in downstream cascades of disrupted functioning. Applying a multiple element perspective to understanding and addressing societal needs is a new direction for both ecological stoichiometry and sustainability.     

农村多水塘系统水环境过程研究进展

农村多水塘系统由于其不可替代的水资源蓄积和营养物去除功能,广泛分布于我国东部和南部地区。在分析多水塘系统水环境过程研究进展的基础上,指出了目前多水塘系统水环境过程研究中的不足及未来发展趋势。关于多水塘系统的研究主要从两个尺度展开,分别是生态系统尺度和景观尺度。(1)基于生态系统尺度的多水塘系统水环境过程研究主要表现在两方面。首先,多水塘系统在改变区域水文情势上发挥着重大作用。多水塘系统能有效降低流速,且增加地表径流的滞留时间;其次是对多水塘系统水质的研究,主要包括水塘对污染物截留降解能力的研究、水塘底泥和水体之间营养物形态转化和输移机制的研究。(2)基于景观尺度的多水塘系统水环境过程模型研究主要包括构建经验模型和机制模型两方面。经验模型主要是利用统计分析方法分析景观格局与水环境之间关系;适用于农村多水塘系统的水环境机制模型主要包括国外的SWAT、HSPF、DRAINWAT和TOPMODEL模型。农村多水塘系统的研究可以为建设生态新农村提供科学依据。