Some meteorological conditions associated with forest fires in Galicia (Spain)

The present paper offers data on the effect of certain meteorological parameters on the outbreak of forest fires in Galicia (Spain). In a day-to-day analysis, the values of the stability of the air column and the saturation deficit at the lower levels are related to the number of fires occurring in the following 24 h.     

Harmful algal bloom forecast system for SW Ireland. Part II: Are operational oceanographic models useful in a HAB warning system

This study investigated the application of a three-dimensional physical hydrodynamic model in a harmful algal bloom forecast system for Bantry Bay, southwest Ireland. Modelled oceanographic conditions were studied and used to help understand observed changes in the chemical and biological patterns from the national biotoxins and phytoplankton monitoring program. The study focused on two toxic events in 2013. An upwelling event was predicted by the model prior to the appearance and population increase of potentially toxic diatoms, Pseudo-nitzschia, and associated domoic acid in shellfish. A downwelling episode was provided as a forecast in the model prior to the arrival of a Dinophysis bloom and detection of its associated biotoxins in Bay shellfish. The modelled forecast products developed included expected surface, mid-depth and bottom current pathways at the mouth of the Bay and on the adjacent shelf. The rate and direction of water volume flow at the mouth and mid-bay sections were produced by the model to examine predicted upwelling and downwelling pulses. The model also calculated the evolution of water properties (temperature, salinity and density) with depth along the Bay axis and on the adjacent continental shelf. Direct measurements of water properties at a fixed point, mid-bay, were comparable to model calculations. The operational model for southwest Ireland produces a reliable 3-day physical hydrodynamic forecast of the dominant regional physical processes that result in water exchange events between Bantry Bay and its adjacent shelf. While simulated physical hydrodynamics were provided as a 3-day forecast, the upwelling and downwelling signals from the model, closely linked to toxic HAB episodes, were evident up to 10 days prior to the contamination of shellfish in the Bay.     

人类周期性活动对物种多样性的影响及其预测

人类活动通过作用于栖息地而影响着物种的种群动态,从而影响着物种多样性的变化。首次提出了不同时间尺度人类周期性活动干扰下的多物种竞争动力模式,模拟了千年时间尺度,物种多样性对人类周期性活动的响应过程,开展了人类周期性活动所导致的物种多样性的量的变化的预测研究。有关模拟和预测结果表明:在人类周期性活动的作用下,物种多度变化对栖息地变化的响应也做准周期振荡;同时人类活动强度越大,物种多度振荡的幅度也越大;并且在栖息地减少过程中,人类周期性活动对物种多样性的影响幅度要小于栖息地扩充过程中的。在一个完整的周期内,并没有物种的灭绝,只是物种的多度和强弱关系变化很大。当人类周期性活动仅持续1/4个周期时,最强的几个物种将灭绝,而其它物种做准周期振荡,但振幅相对较小。     

基于多源遥感数据的景观格局及预测研究

以TM、中巴资源卫星和环境与灾害监测预报小卫星等遥感影像为数据源,利用ENVI 4.7、ARCGIS 9.2、IDRISI 15等软件,研究了西安市辖区的景观特征与空间格局,预测了未来的景观变化,提出了景观格局预测的数据转化和多距离空间分析的精简步骤.结果表明:研究区的景观本底是一个由林地和耕地构成的复合景观基质,建设用地在研究时段内呈现持续增加趋势,且2004-2011年间的增加量高于2000-2004年间的增加量;林地面积略有降低,林地和草地总面积略呈增长趋势,水域和未利用地面积变化较小.研究时段内的景观破碎化程度在降低,林地景观的连通性增强了,耕地的降低了.各景观类型在所设定的最大预期研究尺度下均呈现显著的聚集空间格局;各年和各景观类型之间的聚集、随机和离散的临界阈值差别相对比较大;水域和未利用地的空间聚集强度明显高于耕地、林地、草地和城乡建设用地;耕地和草地空间分布存在一个异质性最大的特征尺度,且均出现了聚集分布、随机分布和离散分布3种分布格局,以2011年最为明显.利用景观指数法和多距离空间聚类分析方法研究景观格局特征的效果要比单一的景观指数法较理想.CA-Markov模型模拟的结果基本能够反映未来的景观格局状况.     

2003年稻纵卷叶螟重大迁入过程的大气动力机制分析

为了探明稻纵卷叶螟灾变性迁入的大气动力学机制,本研究在ArcGIS中对2003年我国稻纵卷叶螟的时空分布规律进行了简要的地学分析。在此基础上,选取了有典型意义的重大迁入过程2个,从PCVSATTM接收系统中调取覆盖各迁飞过程的实测气象数据和T213数值预报产品,输入MM5中尺度数值预报模式对迁飞和降落期间的大气动力场进行了数值模拟和客观分析。结果表明：（1）用850 hPa和925 hPa高度风向来分别描述稻纵卷叶螟北迁和南迁主迁飞层种群迁移的方向是比较合适的。北迁时,从源地到迁入地之间有比较一致的偏南气流;南迁时,从源地到迁入地之间则有相对均一的偏北气流。水平风场上的气旋式曲率区有利于害虫的起飞迁出,反气旋式曲率区则有利于其迁入降落。（2）垂直气流场中下沉气流的推动作用是稻纵卷叶螟迁入和降落的最直接大气动力机制,当稻纵卷叶螟迁入某一即将危害的稻区时,其降落前36～12 h以内的850 hPa等压面上常表现为相对强而宽广的下沉气流区。（3）在稻纵卷叶螟迁入与为害前36～12 h内的高空850 hPa和925 hPa散度场上,降虫区上空对应着比较一致的高值正散度区,表明有较强的下沉气流存在,这对降虫十分有利。（4）850 hPa、925 hPa等压面上的水平流场、垂直气流场和散度场的特征分布对预测稻纵卷叶螟的迁入和降落具有很好的指示意义。     

Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola

As an emergent infectious disease outbreak unfolds, public health response is reliant on information on key epidemiological quantities, such as transmission potential and serial interval. Increasingly, transmission models fit to incidence data are used to estimate these parameters and guide policy. Some widely used modelling practices lead to potentially large errors in parameter estimates and, consequently, errors in model-based forecasts. Even more worryingly, in such situations, confidence in parameter estimates and forecasts can itself be far overestimated, leading to the potential for large errors that mask their own presence. Fortunately, straightforward and computationally inexpensive alternatives exist that avoid these problems. Here, we first use a simulation study to demonstrate potential pitfalls of the standard practice of fitting deterministic models to cumulative incidence data. Next, we demonstrate an alternative based on stochastic models fit to raw data from an early phase of 2014 West Africa Ebola virus disease outbreak. We show not only that bias is thereby reduced, but that uncertainty in estimates and forecasts is better quantified and that, critically, lack of model fit is more readily diagnosed. We conclude with a short list of principles to guide the modelling response to future infectious disease outbreaks.     

利用周期分析法预测稻纵卷叶螟的发生程度

根据化州市早稻稻纵卷叶螟CnaphalocrocismedinalisGuenee主害代的历年发生程度资料 ,采用方差分析方法寻找其显著周期 ,并提取其周期数组 ,重复这一过程 ,直到没有显著周期时为止 ,共提取出2个显著周期的周期数组。将这些周期数组外延和叠加后 ,进行拟合检验 ,结果表明 ,周期分析方法适用于拟合并预测化州市稻纵卷叶螟发生的年变化情况。于是对该市早稻稻纵卷叶螟发生程度进行了多年预测 ,其中最初 3年的预测结果已得到证实 ,表明用周期分析方法进行预测是可行的     

鄱阳湖生态经济区生态系统服务价值预测与驱动力

鄱阳湖生态经济区是我国第一个上升到国家战略的生态经济区。利用鄱阳湖生态经济区2004、2008、2012、2016年的MODIS数据,获得4个对应期的土地利用/覆盖数据,参照修订的单位面积生态系统服务价值当量表与灰色GM(1,1)模型,预测了2016-2024年(间隔2 a)的生态系统服务价值数据,并对引起生态服系统务价值变化的驱动力进行了分析。结果表明,鄱阳湖生态经济区在2004-2016年间,草地、建设用地和未利用地面积增加,耕地、林地、水域面积减少,但2016-2024年的预测值变化率仅为-0.17%,表明该研究区生态系统服务价值即将进入一个相对稳定的状态;驱动力分析表明,人为综合干扰在空间分布上以中等影响强度干扰为主,城镇化率是区域总生态系统服务价值降低的首要驱动力,其次分别为非农业人口、人口密度、第一产业GDP、第二产业GDP、固定资产投资额、总GDP及第三产业GDP。建议加强土地利用规划与调控,控制城镇化建设用地扩展,调整产业结构、降低污染,促进鄱阳湖生态经济区总生态系统服务价值的提升。     

基于小波神经网络的麦蚜发生程度预测模型

【目的】建立基于小波神经网络病虫害预测预报模型,对提前采取防病防虫措施、减少农作物病虫害损失、提高农作物产量与质量具有重要意义。【方法】本研究以山西省运城市芮城县1980-2014年麦蚜发生程度和气象因子数据为基础,采用主成分分析法从40个基础气象因子中整合形成9个新的自变量输入模型,采用试凑法筛选隐含层节点数,用1980-2009年的数据进行网络训练,对2010-2014年麦蚜发生程度进行回测,建立了以Morlet小波函数为传递函数的小波神经网络模型,并与以Sigmoid函数为传递函数的BP神经网络模型进行了比较。【结果】小波和BP神经网络两种模型对训练样本的平均拟合精度均有10年以上超过80%,两者MAPE 值分别为 89.83% 和83.07%,MSE 值分别为0.0578和0.6192。【结论】两个模型都能较好地描述麦蚜发生程度;从预测精度和模型的稳定性来看,小波神经网络好于BP神经网络。     

Vulnerability of eastern US tree species to climate change

Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of tree species because of critical environmental tolerances related to growth, mortality, reproduction, disturbances, and biotic interactions. How this is realized in 21st century remains uncertain, in large part due to limitations on plant migration and the impacts of landscape fragmentation. Understanding these changes is of particular concern for forest management, which requires information at an appropriately fine spatial resolution. Here we provide a framework and application for tree species vulnerability to climate change in the eastern United States that accounts for influential drivers of future distributions. We used species distribution models to project changes in habitat suitability at 800 m for 40 tree species that vary in physiology, range, and environmental niche. We then developed layers of adaptive capacity based on migration potential, forest fragmentation, and propagule pressure. These were combined into metrics of vulnerability, including an overall index and spatially explicit categories designed to inform management. Despite overall favorable changes in suitability, the majority of species and the landscape were considered vulnerable to climate change. Vulnerability was significantly exacerbated by projections of pests and pathogens for some species. Northern and high‐elevation species tended to be the most vulnerable. There were, however, some notable areas of particular resilience, including most of West Virginia. Our approach combines some of the most important considerations for species vulnerability in a straightforward framework, and can be used as a tool for managers to prioritize species, areas, and actions.