稻飞虱预报模型及防治技术

应用回归分析法,对江苏省高邮市１９８３～１９９７年共１５年稻飞虱发生程度的历史观测资料和气象资料进行了分析,建立了中、短期预测模型,经历史资料回验,符合率８５％以上。并提出规范化药剂防治策略及技术。     

Use of Growth Indices in Markov Chain Models for Crop Yield Forecasting

An improved Markov chain model has been developed for forecasting of sugarcane yields in which growth indices of biometrical characters based on data from two stages simultaneously have been utilised. Comparisons were also made with the models in use viz. the regression model and the first order Markov chain model.     

Modelling the effects of temperature and wetness on the polycyclic phase of Stemphylium vesicarium,the pathogen causing purple spot on asparagus (Asparagus officinalis L.)

The polycyclic phase of Stemphylium vesicarium is the key factor for the forecast and integrated control of purple spot on asparagus. The annual dynamics of airborne conidia were determined under field conditions by conidia traps. From 2013 to 2015, conidia became airborne at the earliest at mid‐July, but the number trapped was considerably enhanced only after mid‐August, early September. The cumulative percentage of trapped conidia was best described using a logistic function depending on the daily temperature sum (base 0°C) accumulated only on days with >0.2 mm of rainfall (R² = .81). The germination of conidia was modelled by a generalized beta‐modified Chapman Richards function, and the germ tube length was modelled by a generalized beta‐power function. Conidia germinated in a wide temperature range, with an optimum at 23.3°C, whereas germ tube length had a narrow nearly optimum temperature range around 28.7°C, which indicates that infection by conidia is more restricted by germ tube growth than by germination. The effect of temperature on the number of lesions produced by two strains on green asparagus spears had the narrowest optimum range (optimum at 21.9°C) of all parts of the polycyclic phase. In plant tissue, the spread of the fungus depends on the mycelium growth. The mycelium growth of the four strains, which was modelled with data from a petri dish experiment, had an optimum temperature at 24.7°C.     

起伏型时间序列分析方法在害虫测报上的应用

介绍了起伏型时间序列（analysisforwavetypetimeseries）害虫预测方法。对安徽省凤阳县稻纵卷叶螟四（2）代蛾主峰高峰日进行建模预测,对历史资料的拟合和1989、1990两年的试报,结果令人满意。这是一种新的时间序列分析法。     

玉米生长条件下农田土壤水分动态预报方法的研究

依据理论分析和田间实测资料,提出了玉米生长条件下农田土壤水分动态预报模型,论述了模型中参数的测取方法,经初步应用结果表明,该模型预报玉米土壤水分动态具有较高的精度。     

莎车巴旦姆物候期对气象条件的响应及花期预测模型

利用莎车县农业气象试验站2008—2013年巴旦姆物候期和同期气象观测资料,分析了巴旦姆物候期的变化特征以及气温、日照时数对物候期的影响.结果表明：巴旦姆花期之前的物候期始日之间均呈正相关,与花期之后的物候期始日的相关性大多较小,花芽膨大早迟与休眠期、生长期天数分别呈极显著的正相关和负相关.以果实成熟期为界,气温对之前、之后物候期间隔日数的影响分别为负相关和正相关,日照时数与物候期间隔日数大多为正相关.果实成熟 叶变色始期间隔日数对平均最高气温以及花序出现 开花末期、叶变色始期 落叶末期间隔日数对日照时数存在明显的响应.当巴旦姆休眠期符合日平均气温-3.0～-7.5 ℃的天数满30 d后,经过17～28 d将进入花芽萌动期.花芽萌动期、开花始期、叶变色始期和落叶末期的始日分别与首个候平均气温≥4 ℃且候平均最高气温≥12 ℃、春季侯平均气温≥14 ℃且侯平均最高气温≥22 ℃、秋季首个侯平均气温≤10 ℃且侯平均最高气温≤18 ℃和冬季首个侯平均气温≤1.9 ℃的候序一一对应.利用偏最小二乘法回归分析,建立巴旦姆盛花期始日预测模型,经过检验模型效果较好.     

稻飞虱迁飞种群的上灯行为节律研究

【目的】明确稻飞虱迁飞种群的上灯行为节律,以指导其大田迁入种群和迁出种群的发生预测与灾变预警。【方法】本研究运用逐时自动灯诱装置对2010和2011连续两年稻飞虱迁飞种群的上灯行为节律进行了系统研究。【结果】灰飞虱Laodelphax striatellus迁飞种群上灯始见期和灯诱虫量年际间差异不明显,白背飞虱Sogatella furcifera和褐飞虱Nilaparvata lugens迁飞过境种群上灯始见期和灯诱虫量年际间差异较大。此外,灰飞虱迁飞种群的特大高峰期和高峰期逐时灯诱虫量百分比与一般上灯期和零星上灯期相比突出了晨暮双峰型中的暮峰型上灯行为特点;白背飞虱迁飞种群特大高峰期逐时灯诱虫量百分比与高峰期和一般期相比突出了晨暮双峰型中的晨峰型生物学特性。【结论】稻飞虱迁飞种群的上灯行为节律存在种的特异性,这一行为节律除了受环境因素的影响外主要与其生物学特性有关。     

Why less complexity produces better forecasts: an independent data evaluation of kelp habitat models

Understanding how species are distributed in the environment is increasingly important for natural resource management, particularly for keystone and habitat – forming species, and those of conservation concern. Habitat suitability models are fundamental to developing this understanding; however their use in management continues to be limited due to often‐vague model objectives and inadequate evaluation methods. Along the Northeast Pacific coast, canopy kelps (Macrocystis pyrifera and Nereocystis luetkeana) provide biogenic habitat and considerable primary production to nearshore ecosystems. We investigated the distribution of these species by examining a series of increasingly complex habitat suitability models ranging from process‐based models based on species’ ecology to complex generalised additive models applied to purpose‐collected survey data. Seeking empirical limits to model complexity, we explored the relationship between model complexity and forecast skill, measured using both cross‐validation and independent data evaluation. Our analysis confirmed the importance of predictors used in models of coastal kelp distributions developed elsewhere (i.e. depth, bottom type, bottom slope, and exposure); it also identified additional important factors including salinity, and potential interactions between exposure and salinity, and slope and tidal energy. Comparative results showed how cross‐validation can lead to over‐fitting, while independent data evaluation clearly identified the appropriate model complexity for generating habitat forecasts. Our results also illustrate that, depending on the evaluation data, predictions from simpler models can out‐perform those from more complex models. Collectively, the insights from evaluating multiple models with multiple data sets contribute to the holistic assessment of model forecast skill. The continued development of methods and metrics for evaluating model forecasts with independent data, and the explicit consideration of model objectives and assumptions, promise to increase the utility of model forecasts to decision makers.     

秦岭西段天然落叶阔叶林乔木种间关联性

为研究小陇山林区天然落叶阔叶林种群的自然生长状况和群落结构特征,解决森林经营中树种选择的问题,2009年6—9月,采用典型抽样的方法,对以锐齿栎为主的落叶阔叶林进行了调查。在小样方(10m×10m)尺度上,调查了乔木树种的分布情况,计算了其重要值;用2×2列联表,以方差比率VR、Jaccard指数、χ2检验,对37个树种666个种对间的关联性进行定量研究。结果表明:群落中锐齿栎重要值最大,其他均为伴生树种;37个树种总体呈现显著的正关联,且总体达到显著水平;χ2检验结果有7个种对呈极显著关联性,占总种对数的1.05%,19个种对呈显著关联性,占总种对数的2.85%;结合AC值,5个种对呈极显著正关联,2个种对呈极显著负关联;640个种对无关联或关联程度未达显著水平,占总种对数的96.10%。群落处于较为稳定的次生演替阶段。研究结果对天然次生林经营及造林树种的选择具有指导意义。     

我国草地螟的迁飞规律及途径

草地螟Loxostege sticticalisL.是一种重要的迁飞害虫,曾给我国三北地区的农牧业生产造成巨大的经济损失。文章在列举大量草地螟迁飞证据的同时,总结分析了成虫的迁飞过程及行为生理特征、迁飞途径以及在我国主要发生危害区的虫源关系。有资料显示,成虫通常在黄昏前后自主起飞,起飞的适宜温度为20℃左右。当成虫进入边界层后,便在距地面400 m左右的高空成层,并随气流运载至远处。黎明前后,成虫降落。脂类是成虫飞行的主要能源物质。在我国,越冬代和1代之间可能可以“互为虫源地”。越冬代成虫随西南气流迁飞至我国东北地区,在当地繁殖1代后,成虫可能回迁至华北地区,尽管目前还缺乏直接的证据。最后,还讨论了草地螟迁飞规律研究中尚待解决的主要科学问题。