利用周期分析法预测稻纵卷叶螟的发生程度

根据化州市早稻稻纵卷叶螟CnaphalocrocismedinalisGuenee主害代的历年发生程度资料 ,采用方差分析方法寻找其显著周期 ,并提取其周期数组 ,重复这一过程 ,直到没有显著周期时为止 ,共提取出2个显著周期的周期数组。将这些周期数组外延和叠加后 ,进行拟合检验 ,结果表明 ,周期分析方法适用于拟合并预测化州市稻纵卷叶螟发生的年变化情况。于是对该市早稻稻纵卷叶螟发生程度进行了多年预测 ,其中最初 3年的预测结果已得到证实 ,表明用周期分析方法进行预测是可行的

Forecasting of occurrence degree of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis by analyses of periodicity

Forecast equations for Cnaphaloczocis medinalis have been proposed by analyses of periodicity,based on historical data of this pests in the Huazhou City.The validation analysis of the models showed that the model outputs fit the real data well.That indicates the methods proposed in this paper will be useful for forecasting of occurrence of the pests.