动态适应性生态经济区划模型及其应用

提高城市生态经济区划的精确性和动态性,对科学指导城市化发展具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。利用夜间灯光数据与人口密度建立线性模型,探索了以往用行政区域为最小统计单元数据的模拟细化问题;然后通过引入可变参数构建了动态适应性生态经济区划模型,在增强模型动态适应性的同时,将一级区划结果统一划分为生态管控区域、生态优先区域、优化开发区域和重点开发区域4个区域。以广州市增城区为典型案例,通过改进的动态适应性生态经济区划模型,运用GIS将增城区在两种情景下进行了模拟和对比,并提出了政策建议。区划结果符合当地发展特征,也为其他城市与区域的生态经济区划研究提供了科学方法。     

基于元胞自动机的城市空间动态模拟

城市空间动态的模拟与预测可以为城市可持续发展规划与管理提供重要的参考依据。SLEUTH元胞自动机模型在城市空间模拟中较强的适用性和可移植性,该模型通过对历史数据的蒙特卡洛迭代自动寻找城市增长误差最小的参数组合,解决了传统元胞自动机模型中转换规则不易确定的问题。以武汉市为研究案例,运用SLEUTH模型进行了城市空间动态模拟与情景预测。2007年至2011年的城市空间模拟结果显示,模拟结果与实际历史数据可以获得良好的空间匹配度,Lee-Sallee形状指数均在0.6以上,显示SLEUTH元胞自动机模型经过本地化校正后具有较强的适用性和满意的模拟精度。进而,设置了现状趋势、基本保护、严格保护等3种情景对武汉2025年城市空间动态进行了预测,结果显示,各情景模式下城市居住用地均明显增长,农业用地、林地、水域等均有所减少;现状趋势情景和基本保护情景下农田、林地、水域减少的幅度较大,会加剧区域的生境破碎、耕地功能下降、水资源匮乏、湖滨湿地萎缩等生态问题,说明这两种情景不能有效满足城市生态系统健康和可持续发展的需要。严格保护情景下,城市居住用地扩张的程度得到了明显的控制,水域和林地得到了有效的保护,对于重要的自然生态系统组分保护及其服务能力维持可以起到显著作用。     

城市土壤封闭对有机碳库影响的时空变化模拟

随着全球城市化的迅速发展,城市生态系统的研究日益受到关注。城市化过程引发的大面积土壤封闭,导致土壤功能退化,进而影响城市生态系统。通过构建城市封闭土壤碳循环模型,考虑土壤温度,水分,有效氮含量以及各项理化性质等影响土壤有机碳在封闭条件下分解的影响因素,模拟南京市1980年至2010年城市封闭土壤有机碳含量与土壤有机碳库的时空变化过程,揭示人工封闭对于城市土壤功能的影响。结果表明:南京市1980年至2010年封闭土壤的有机碳含量显著减少,2010年土壤有机碳含量的均值为6.7 g/kg,比开放土壤低54.7%。土壤有机碳含量较低的区域主要分布在快速城市化的地区。由于封闭土壤阻碍了土壤有机碳的来源,造成封闭土壤有机碳含量持续减少,1980年至2010年间城市土壤有机碳库的总量减少约0.32 Tg。城市封闭对土壤有机碳影响的时空变化模拟可为研究城市化过程中的生态环境效应与城市生态建设提供参考。     

模拟打制实验及其在丁村角页岩石器研究中的应用

模拟打制是史前考古研究中的重要实验考古方法之一,对于正确认识考古标本的类型和技术、解读当时人类的认知水平和知识积累具有不可取代的作用。本文简要回溯了模拟打制实验的发展史,并评述其应用现状。模拟打制实验在欧美有较长的发展与应用历史,但最终趋向了不同的发展方向。传统的模拟打制实验研究在欧洲得到了更加深入的继承和发展,而美国在上世纪90年代后期逐渐发展起了以定量控制、数理统计为核心的实验方法。本文以近期在山西丁村开展的角页岩模拟打制实验为例,介绍传统的模拟打制实验的基本流程和内容,包括实验的内容设计、实施及记录和分析等。本次实验结果肯定了硬锤锤击技术在丁村角页岩石核剥片和修理中的广泛应用,并在一定程度上否定了以往对使用碰砧法的推测。文章最后对模拟打制实验存在的问题和应用前景作了讨论和展望。     

"中心法则"的模拟游戏

以高中生物学教材中遗传学部分"中心法则"的知识内容为载体,设计模拟游戏并将其引入课堂.将教学内容与模拟游戏融合,让学生通过模拟游戏学习、复习巩固知识.通过在文科班及理科班的实际教学操作.使此种教学方法的实际意义得到进一步的验证,通过游戏可以创设相关的环境,学生可以亲身体验、自主思考、自行归纳总结,从而从根本上领悟所学内容的内涵.     

Shrub encroachment effect on the evapotranspiration and its component—A numerical simulation study of a shrub encroachment grassland in Nei Mongol,China

Aims Shrub encroachment is a common global change phenomenon occurring in arid and semi-arid regions. Due to the difficulty of partitioning evapotranspiration into shrub plants, grass plants and soil in the field, there are few studies focusing on shrub encroachment effect on the evapotranspiration and its component in China. This study aims to illustrate shrub encroachment effect on evapotranspiration by the numerical modeling method. Methods A two-source model was applied and calibrated with the measured evapotranspiration (ET) by the Bowen ratio system to simulate evapotranspiration and its component in a shrub encroachment grassland in Nei Mongol, China. Based on the calibrated model and previous shrub encroachment investigation, we set three scenarios of shrub encroachment characterized by relative shrub coverage of 5%, 15% and 30%, respectively, and quantified their effects caused by shrub encroachment through localized and calibrated two-source model.Important findings The two-source model can well reconstruct the evapotranspiration characteristics of a shrub encroachment grassland. Sensitivity analysis of the model shows that errors for the input variables and parameters have small influence on the result of partitioning evapotranspiration. The result shows that shrub encroachment has relatively small influence on the total amount of ET, but it has clear influence on the proportion of the components of evapotranspiration (E/ET). With shrub coverage increasing from 5% to 15% and then 30%, the evapotranspiration decreased from 182.97 to 180.38 and 176.72 W·m^-2, decreasing amplitude values of 0.34% and 0.44%, respectively. On average, E/ET rises from 52.9% to 53.9% and 55.5%, increasing amplitude values to 2.04% and 3.25%. Data analysis indicates that shrub encroachment results in smaller soil moisture changes, but clear changes of ecosystem structure (decreasing ecosystem leaf area index while increasing vegetation height) which lead to the decrease of transpiration fraction through decreasing canopy conductance. The research highlights that, with the shrub encroachment, more water will be consumed as soil evaporation which is often regarded as invalid part of evapotranspiration and thus resulting in the decrease of water use efficiency.     

Responses of soil respiration with biocrust cover to water and temperature in the southeastern edge of Tengger Desert,Northwest China

Aims Soil respiration of the lands covered by biocrusts is an important component in the carbon cycle of arid, semi-arid and dry-subhumid ecosystems (drylands hereafter), and one of the key processes in the carbon cycle of drylands. However, the responses of the rate of soil respiration with biocrusts to water and temperature are uncertain in the investigations of the effects of experimental warming and precipitation patterns on CO₂ fluxes in biocrust dominated ecosystems. The objectives of this study were to investigate the relationships of carbon release from the biocrust-soil systems with water and temperature in drylands. Methods Intact soil columns with two types of biocrusts, including moss and algae-lichen crusts, were collected in a natural vegetation area in the southeastern fringe of the Tengger Desert. Open top chambers were used to simulate climate warming, and the soil respiration rate was measured under warming and non-warming treatments using an automated soil respiration system (LI-8150). Important findings Over the whole observational period (from April 2016 to July 2016), soil respiration rates varied from -0.16 to 4.69 μmol·m^-2·s^-1 for the moss crust-covered soils and from -0.21 to 5.72 μmol·m^-2·s^-1 for the algae-lichen crust-covered soils, respectively, under different rainfall events (the precipitations between 0.3-30.0 mm). The mean soil respiration rate of the moss crust-covered soils is 1.09 μmol·m^-2·s^-1, which is higher than that of the algae-lichen crust-covered soils of 0.94 μmol·m^-2·s^-1. The soil respiration rate of the two types of biocrust-covered soils showed different dynamics and spatial heterogeneities with rainfall events, and were positively correlated with precipitation. The mean soil respiration rate of the biocrust-covered soils without warming was 1.24 μmol·m^-2·s^-1, significantly higher than that with warming treatments of 0.79 μmol·m^-2·s^-1 (p < 0.05). By increasing the evaporation of soil moisture, the simulated warming impeded soil respiration. In most cases, soil temperature and soil respiration rate displayed a similar single-peak curve during the diel cycle. Our results show an approximately two hours’ lag between soil temperature at 5 cm depth and the soil respiration rate of the biocrust-covered soils during the diel cycle.     

基于序贯高斯模拟的日最低气温空间不确定性评估

明确日最低气温对于评估低温对作物的危害、指导人们及时采取补救措施、保障粮食安全具有重要意义.克里格是近地面温度场插值的主流方法,但其平滑效应会导致低值区域被过高估计而高值区域被过低估计.对2011年12月12日冷空气影响下的海南岛日最低气温,采用交叉验证法评估了普通克里格和带漂移的克里格两种插值法的预测精度;并对克里格插值法和序贯高斯模拟法产生的当日海南岛最低气温的空间分布进行对比分析.结果表明：带漂移克里格法的预测精度（r=0.86）并不显著优于普通克里格法（r=0.86）;序贯高斯模拟能产生多个等概率的符合数据整体分布和方差函数的模拟结果,模拟结果克服了克里格插值的平滑效应,能够比克里格插值更加真实地反映当日最低气温的空间分布;在低温区域,气温变化小,序贯高斯模拟结果的条件方差小于普通克里格方差;潜在寒害区的空间不确定性能够通过多个序贯高斯模拟实现并加以量化.序贯高斯模拟在低温导致农业气象灾害的评估中具有较高的应用价值.
     

蛋白药物的聚乙二醇定点修饰策略与最佳位点

聚乙二醇修饰是一种改善蛋白质药物临床药效行之有效的方法。聚乙二醇修饰具有延长蛋白质药物在体内的半衰期、降低免疫原性和延缓蛋白酶降解、提高稳定性和溶解性等优点。而聚乙二醇的定点修饰由于能够获得均一性和高活性保留率的产物,并能提高产率,已经引起了广泛关注。综述了近年来聚乙二醇定点修饰蛋白质药物方面的研究进展,着重介绍了聚乙二醇定点修饰的策略及最佳修饰位点,并对聚乙二醇定点修饰技术的发展趋势进行了展望。     

两种温室气体排放方案下我国水稻产量变化模拟

利用最新的温室气体和SO₂排放方案,即政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)的A2和B2方案,通过区域气候模式PRECIS和作物模型CERES-Rcie相嵌套,在50 km×50 km网格尺度下,模拟了未来2080年我国水稻产量的变化.结果表明,两种温室气体排放方案下,我国水稻的年平均单产水平各地有增有减,增产地区主要集中在长江及长江流域以南地区,其中四川和湖北交界的山区增产幅度最大,减产地区主要集中在华北平原和东北平原;由于CO₂的肥效作用,A2温室气体排放方案对我国水稻单产的正面影响大于B2方案,A2排放方案下,我国水稻总产呈现一定程度的上升趋势,B2排放方案下,水稻总产表现为少量下降.