两种温室气体排放方案下我国水稻产量变化模拟

利用最新的温室气体和SO2排放方案，即政府间气候变化委员会（IPCC）排放情景特别报告（SRES）的A2和B2方案，通过区域气候模式PRECIS和作物模型CERES-Rice相嵌套，在50 km×50 km网格尺度下，模拟了未来2080年我国水稻产量的变化.结果表明，两种温室气体排放方案下，我国水稻的年平均单产水平各地有增有减，增产地区主要集中在长江及长江流域以南地区，其中四川和湖北交界的山区增产幅度最大，减产地区主要集中在华北平原和东北平原；由于CO₂的肥效作用，A2温室气体排放方案对我国水稻单产的正面影响大于B2方案，A2排放方案下，我国水稻总产呈现一定程度的上升趋势，B2排放方案下，水稻总产表现为少量下降.

Regional simulation of rice yield change under two emission scenarios of greenhouse gases

Based on the newest emission scenarios of SO2 and greenhouse gases, i. e., the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, and by using RCM (Regional Climate Model)-PRECIS and CERES-Rice model, this paper simulated the rice yield change in 2080 at 50 x 50 km scale. The results showed that there was a great range of yield change across whole China. The yield would increase along the Changjiang River and in South China, and decrease in North and Northeast China. Because of the direct effect of CO2 on rice growth, the SRES A2 scenario would be more positive to the increase of rice yield than B2. In 2080, the total rice yield in whole China would increase under A2 emission scenario, while decrease under B2 emission scenario.