The potential geographical distribution of the Old World screw-worm fly, Chrysomya bezziana

The potential geographical distribution and relative abundance of the Old World screw-worm fly, Chrysomya bezziana Villeneuve (Diptera: Calliphoridae) as determined by climate, was assessed using CLIMEX, a computer program for matching climates. CLIMEX describes the relative growth and persistence of animal populations in relation to climate. The observed global distribution of C.bezziana was compared with the potential distribution predicted by CLIMEX. The differences in the two distributions indicate the areas at risk of colonization, with particular reference to Australia and the Americas. According to the model, the potential area of permanent colonization in Australia extends south to the mid-coast of New South Wales. Comparison of areas suitable for permanent establishment with the potential summer distribution indicates that large additional areas, carrying most of the continent's livestock, could be colonized in the summer months. Seasonal population growth indices are presented for three ports in Australia at which screw-worm fly specimens have been collected by quarantine authorities. They indicate the relative risk associated with introductions at different places in different seasons and so provide valuable planning information for quarantine authorities. The CLIMEX predictions for C.bezziana in North America are shown to be similar to the recorded distribution limits of the New World screw-worm fly, Cochliomyia hominivorax (Coquerel). The fly could also colonize South America, as far south as southern Brazil and midway through Argentina.     

基于CLIMEX和GIS的南松大小蠹在中国的适生性分析

南松大小蠹Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann是美洲地区危害松杉类针叶树种的蛀干害虫.本文采用CLIMEX模型与ArcGIS分析相结合的预测方法,通过确定南松大小蠹的CLIMEX气候适应性参数,分析了南松大小蠹在我国的适生范围,并利用南松大小蠹的最低致死温度对适生范围进行限制.结果表明南松...     

Global risk levels for corn rusts (Puccinia sorghi and Puccinia polysora) under climate change projections

Common rust (Puccinia sorghi) and southern rust (Puccinia polysora) are two of the most important foliar corn diseases worldwide. These fungi have caused severe economic loss to corn yields worldwide. The current and future potential distribution of these diseases was modelled with CLIMEX using the known current geographic locations of the rusts, growth and stress indices. The models were run under the A2 scenario using CSIRO‐Mk3·0 and MIROC‐H for 2050 and 2100. The current projection shows areas with marginal to optimal suitability in all the continents. The models for future projections display a general reduction in the Southern hemisphere and increase in the Northern hemisphere, especially for the southern rust. The overlay of the General Circulation Models produce an estimation of the common areas under risk for future climate conditions for the simultaneous occurrence for both corn rusts, with a reduction of the medium‐ and high‐risk categories by 2100. This study highlights the possible effects of climate change at a global level for common and southern rust, as well as the risk of occurrence of both diseases in common areas for future climate that could be particularly harmful for crops.     

基于CLIMEX的2种核桃蚜虫潜在适生区分析

【目的】分析核桃黑斑蚜与核桃全斑蚜在全球范围内的潜在分布,比较气候变化对其分布的影响,为核桃有害生物综合管理策略的制定提供依据。【方法】基于实验室和野外试验,结合CLIMEX软件对核桃黑斑蚜与核桃全斑蚜在目前及未来气候条件下的潜在地理分布进行了模拟和系统评估。【结果】2种核桃蚜虫适生区十分相似,在世界范围内主要分布区集中在欧洲、北美洲、亚洲等区域,核桃黑斑蚜适生区范围大于核桃全斑蚜,但在我国,核桃黑斑蚜适生区范围小于核桃全斑蚜。气候变化将决定2种蚜虫分布的差异性,未来气候情景下,2种蚜虫适生区将发生变化,在欧洲、北美洲和亚洲适生区范围向高纬度延伸;在我国适生区范围逐渐减小。【结论】在世界范围内,核桃黑斑蚜与核桃全斑蚜适生区域主要分布在25°N-75°N内的亚洲、欧洲、北美洲的部分地区;在我国,其适生区域主要分布在东部季风区内的东北的南部、西北东南部、西南中部、华中北部以及华北地区。     

Use of CLIMEX modelling to identify prospective areas for exploration to find new biological control agents for prickly acacia

Abstract  Selection of biocontrol agents that are adapted to the climates in areas of intended release demands a thorough analysis of the climates of the source and release sites. We present a case study that demonstrates how use of the CLIMEX software can improve decision making in relation to the identification of prospective areas for exploration for agents to control the woody weed, prickly acacia Acacia nilotica ssp. indica in the arid areas of north Queensland.     

The fundamental and realized niche of the Monterey Pine aphid, Essigella californica (Essig) (Hemiptera: Aphididae): implications for managing softwood plantations in Australia

Essigella californica is a pine aphid native to western North America. In Australia, E. californica is considered an invasive pest that has the potential to cause severe economic loss to the Australian forestry industry. Two CLIMEX models were developed to predict the Australian and global distribution of E. californica under current climate conditions based upon the aphid's known North American distribution. The first model (model I) was fitted using the reasonably contiguous set of location records in North America that constituted the known range of E. californica, and excluded consideration of a single (reliable) location record of the aphid in southern Florida. The second model (model II) was fitted using all known records in North America. Model I indicated that the aphid would be climatically restricted to the temperate, Mediterranean and subtropical climatic regions of Australia. In northern Australia it would be limited by hot, wet conditions, while in more central areas of Australia it is limited by hot, dry conditions. Model II is more consistent with the current Australian distribution of E. californica. The contrast in geographical range and climatic conditions encompassed between the two models appears to represent the difference between the realized niche (model I) and fundamental niche (model II) of E. californica. The difference may represent the strength of biotic factors such as host limitation, competition and parasitism in limiting geographical spread in the native range. This paper provides a risk map for E. californica colonization in Australia and globally. E. californica is likely to remain a feature of the Australian pine plantations, and any feasibility studies into establishing coniferous plantations in lower rainfall areas should consider the likely impact of E. californica.     

Prediction of the potential global distribution of the Asian longhorned beetle Anoplophora glabripennis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) under climate change

1. The Asian longhorned beetle (ALB) Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is an important wood-boring pest that has caused substantial damage to broadleaf trees in Asia, North America, and Europe.
2. We used the modelling software CLIMEX to project the potential global distribution of ALB based on both historical (1987–2016) and future (2021–2050) climate conditions. ALB has possible hosts in 37 genera, and their known distributions were incorporated into the model to assess their effect on pest distribution.
3. Suitable regions for ALB are predicted to be widely distributed under both historical and future climate conditions, and across all continents except Antarctica. With climate change, climate suitability would increase in the regions north of 30°N and decline in most regions south of 30°N.
4. The area of most climate-suitable regions would be covered by potential hosts, and optimum hosts would dominate. The possibility of ALB outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere is much higher than in the Southern Hemisphere, owing to the richer abundance of hosts.
5. These results provide theoretical guidance for developing effective ALB monitoring and mitigation measures.

     

Spatial and temporal distribution of bioclimatic potential for the Codling moth and the Colorado potato beetle in Norway: model predictions versus climate and field data from the 1990s

Abstract 1 Based on climate data from a network of agrometeorological stations in Norway, the effects of current and future climate regimes on the spatial and temporal distribution of the Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) and the establishment potential of the Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata) were investigated. 2 The study was accomplished using climex , a dynamic climate matching‐ and climate response estimation model, which predicts potential distribution of an organism based on its known geographical distribution. 3 Validation of the climex model predictions for C. pomonella against field data on spatial distribution of the species in Norway resulted in a refined set of climate response parameters for C. pomonella. Temporal occurrence of C. pomonella seems to be affected by climate (temperature) and insecticide treatment against the Apple fruit moth (Argyresthia conjugella) in the previous season. 4 Climate change scenarios (0.1 °C increase per degree in latitude in daily maximum and minimum temperatures) indicated an extension of the potential geographical range for C. pomonella, and 23 new locations were found favourable for its long‐term survival. The abundance and pest status of C. pomonella could increase dramatically in those locations where the species is already established. 5 Leptinotarsa decemlineata would only temporarily find suitable climate conditions in Norway and hence only be able to establish interim populations in a few regions under current climate conditions. Climate change scenarios for L. decemlineata indicated that the species would be able to establish as far north as 64°N, mainly in the inland of eastern Norway. 6 In general, the methods applied support the process of decreasing the uncertainty both in our knowledge about the pests themselves and about the environment, which are crucial elements in predicting whether a species is able to establish in a new area.     

Distribution analysis of Leptoglossus occidentalis Heidemann (Heteroptera: Coreidae) in South Korea using climate and host plant ensemble maps

Leptoglossus occidentalis Heidemann (Heteroptera: Coreidae) is a notorious pest that causes irreversible damage to coniferous forests in South Korea. However, an effective control strategy is still under development. In this study, we used CLIMEX to analyze the potential distribution of L. occidentalis in relation to climate and host plants in South Korea for the identification of effective control spots. The climate needs of L. occidentalis under current and future climate conditions were analyzed and projected on a map along with the distribution of coniferous forests. The CLIMEX model projected that the area of L. occidentalis distribution would decrease slightly in 2060 compared with that at present. However, it was projected that occurrence in mountainous regions would be sustained, suggesting continued damage to coniferous forests in South Korea.     

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the biological control of Plutella xylostella by Diadegma semiclausum

1. The parasitoid Diadegma semiclausum Hellén (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae) has been widely adopted as a biological control agent for Plutella xylostella L. (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae) over the last 80 years. Earlier studies have found differential responses to temperature between the host and its parasitoid and demonstrated the multiple ways in which the parasitoid is more susceptible to elevated temperatures.
2. Using data from experimental studies, the modelling package CLIMEX was used to investigate the suitability of current climates for the host and its parasitoid and the effects on their potential global geographical distributions. The study was then extended to investigate possible changes to these distributions that might result under different climate change scenarios by 2080. The models predict that the global distributions of both the host and parasitoid will be reduced. These changes will not be proportionate and many areas in tropical, sub-tropical, and temperate regions that are currently suitable for D. semiclausum are predicted to become unsuitable for the parasitoid, whereas retaining suitability for P. xylostella. The seasonal dynamics of both the host and parasitoid are also predicted to be significantly reshaped under climate change.
3. Analysis of associations between annual P. xylostella outbreaks and weather conditions in three provinces in China with field data collected between 1995 and 2017 indicated significant effects of temperature on P. xylostella outbreaks at the beginning of the peak season in warmer provinces where P. xylostella can overwinter; such associations were not found in the colder provinces where it is unable to survive harsh winters.