Climate change and biotic invasions: a case history of a tropical woody vine

The impacts of climate change in the potential distribution and relative abundance of a C₃ shrubby vine, Cryptostegia grandiflora, were investigated using the CLIMEX modelling package. Based upon its current naturalised distribution, C. grandiflora appears to occupy only a small fraction of its potential distribution in Australia under current climatic conditions; mostly in apparently sub-optimal habitat. The potential distribution of C. grandiflora is sensitive towards changes in climate and atmospheric chemistry in the expected range of this century, particularly those that result in increased temperature and water use efficiency. Climate change is likely to increase the potential distribution and abundance of the plant, further increasing the area at risk of invasion, and threatening the viability of current control strategies markedly. By identifying areas at risk of invasion, and vulnerabilities of control strategies, this analysis demonstrates the utility of climate models for providing information suitable to help formulate large-scale, long-term strategic plans for controlling biotic invasions. The effects of climate change upon the potential distribution of C. grandiflora are sufficiently great that strategic control plans for biotic invasions should routinely include their consideration. Whilst the effect of climate change upon the efficacy of introduced biological control agents remain unknown, their possible effect in the potential distribution of C. grandiflora will likely depend not only upon their effects on the population dynamics of C. grandiflora, but also on the gradient of climatic suitability adjacent to each segment of the range boundary.     

Areas of China predicted to have a suitable climate for Anoplophora chinensis under a climate‐warming scenario

Anoplophora chinensis (Forster) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is an A1 class quarantine pest, native to China, Japan, and North Korea. The A. chinensis outbreak in China has severely affected the local environment and economic development. This study investigates potential areas in China with suitable climate for A. chinensis using historical climate data (1971–2000) and future climate‐warming estimates generated by CLIMEX1.1. These future estimates are based on simulated climate data (2010–2039) provided by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). The results suggest that a wide area of China will have a climate suitable for A. chinensis, and every province may contain some suitable areas for this pest. The predicted areas are distributed primarily in central and southern China, with an estimated distribution range of 18.2–49.5°N and 81.3–135.0°E. Using a global‐warming scenario and predictions based on historical climate data, the areas in China with a climate generally suitable for A. chinensis are predicted to decline, whereas the areas that are highly suitable for A. chinensis are predicted to expand particularly to the northeast and northwest. The estimated distribution range covered 18.2–49.1°N and 73.6–135.0°E. Anoplophora chinensis hosts grow in much of China; therefore, the pest could possibly establish this entire predicted area. These results support enhanced quarantine and control measures combined with stronger monitoring systems to prevent the spread and export of A. chinensis.     

Predicting the spread of Aedes albopictus in Australia under current and future climates: Multiple approaches and datasets to incorporate potential evolutionary divergence

When predicting the potential and future invasive range of a species, there is a growing appreciation that insights about factors limiting distributions can be provided by using multiple modelling approaches and by incorporating information from different parts of a species range. Here we apply this strategy to build on previous CLIMEX models to predict the invasion potential of Aedes albopictus, the Asian tiger mosquito, in mainland Australia. A combination of CLIMEX and MAXENT modelling indicated that the mosquito was expected to become widespread along the eastern seaboard and extend into northern Tasmania, but to remain restricted to the coastal fringe, a pattern which is not expected to shift much under climate change. However, a recent expansion of A. albopictus in North America points to evolutionary changes affecting the distribution of this species; when the North American range is included in models, A. albopictus is predicted to become much more widespread and extend inland and into Western Australia. These patterns highlight the potential impact of evolution on species distributions arising from multiple introductions or in situ evolution. By considering future climate scenarios, we demonstrate that there is likely to be a persistent public health threat associated with invasion by this species.     

Global climate change and accuracy of prediction of species' geographical ranges: establishment success of introduced ladybirds (Coccinellidae, Chilocorus spp.) worldwide

AimPredictions of how the geographical ranges of species change implicitly assume that range can be determined without invoking climate change. The aim here was to determine how accurate predictions of range change might be before entertaining global climatic change. LocationWorldwide. MethodsAll the documented global biological control translocations of ladybirds (Coccinellidae: Chilocorus spp.) were analysed with the ecoclimatic program, CLIMEX. This program determines species distributions in relation to climate, and can be used to express the favourableness of different localities for a species. CLIMEX is also a useful exploratory tool for determining the likelihood of establishment of species introduced from one area to another. ResultsPredictive models were developed based on the likelihood of establishment of fifteen Chilocorus spp. relative to their physiological characteristics and climatic tolerances. This likelihood was compared with actual establishment with a resultant range of 0% accuracy to 100% accuracy. Only four (26.7%) species climatic tolerances could the predicted with 100% certainty. The general lack of accurate prediction was because climate is not always the overriding feature determining whether a species will establish or not. Other determinants, such as localized response to microclimate, phenology, host type and availability, presence of natural enemies and hibernation sites play a varying role over and above climate in determining whether a species will establish at a new locality. Main conclusionsThis study shows that even in the absence of climate change, range cannot always be determined, which means that most predictions of range change with climate change are likely to be wrong.     

落叶松大小蠧在中国适生性分析

运用CLIMEX软件和ArcGIS软件,对落叶松大小蠹Dendroctonus simplex Leconte在中国的适生区进行了预测.结果表明:落叶松大小蠹在我国有很高的适生性,适生范围涉及30个省、市、区,其中黑龙江、吉林、内蒙古、新疆东部、西藏中部和青海为高度适生区.     

Effects of climate change on economic feasibility of future date palm production: An integrated assessment in Iran

This study set out to build a model identifying areas where a positive Net Present Value (NPV) could be obtained from date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) using CLIMEX and six parameters including (a) suitable soil taxonomy and physicochemical soil properties, (b) slopes of less than 10°, (c) land uses suitable for date palm cultivation, (d) availability of roads, (e) availability of water, and (f) low risk of the lethal disease caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. spp. in the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100 in Iran. Here, we utilized the A2 scenario and two global climate models (GCMs): CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR). Economic feasibility was estimated based on the assumption that the decision to plant date palms by landholders is motivated by a desire to maximize their return to land. Our results indicate that only 5450 km² of southern Iran will be highly profitable for cultivation of date palm, with NPV > 10,000, while profitable (with NPV between 4200 and 10,000) and moderately profitable (with NPV between 0 and 4200) areas would cover only 500 and 50 km², respectively, in future. A comparison of mean outputs from the two chosen GCMs and those of the economic and CLIMEX output combination indicates that only about 0.01% of areas from both GCMs will be highly economically viable for cultivation of date palm. In this study we ensure that the predictions become robust, rather than producing hypothetical findings, limited purely to publication.     

Predicting the potential geographical distribution of the harlequin ladybird, Harmonia axyridis, using the CLIMEX model

Harmonia axyridis (Pallas, 1773) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) is a ladybird beetle native to temperate and subtropical parts of Asia. Since 1916 populations of this species have been introduced throughout the world, either deliberately, or by accident through international transport. Harmonia axyridis was originally released as a classical biological control agent of aphid and coccid pests in orchards and forests, but since 1994 it is also available as a commercial product for augmentative control in field and greenhouse crops. It is a very voracious and effective natural enemy of aphids, psyllids and coccids in various agricultural and horticultural habitats and forests. During the past 20 years, however, it has successfully invaded non-target habitats in North America (since 1988), Europe (1999) and South America (2001) respectively in a short period of time, attacking a wide range of non-pest species in different insect orders. Becoming part of the agricultural commercial pathway, it is prone to being introduced into large areas across the world by accident. We use the CLIMEX programme (v2) to predict the potential geographical distribution of H. axyridis by means of matching the climate of its region of origin with other regions in the world and taking in account biological characteristics of the species. Establishment and spread seem likely in many regions across the world, including those areas which H. axyridis has already invaded (temperate Europe, North America). Based on the CLIMEX prediction a large part of Mediterranean Europe, South America, Africa, Australia and New Zealand seem highly suitable for long-term survival of H. axyridis as well. In addition we evaluate CLIMEX as a strategic tool for estimating establishment potential as part of an environmental risk assessment procedure for biological control agents we discuss biological and ecological aspects necessary to fine-tune its establishment and spread in areas after it has been introduced.     

低温条件下松材线虫在中国的风险分布区预测

【目的】松材线虫是我国一种重要的检疫性外来入侵物种,给我国林业造成巨大的经济损失。近年来在松材线虫疫区的调查发现,一些年平均温度8℃左右的高海拔地区也开始有松材线虫病的发生,说明其分布线可能开始向北和高海拔地区移动。因此,在松材线虫低温适应性驯化环境下,对松材线虫在我国的最新风险分布区进行了预测。【方法】将松材线虫分为长期(30 d)暴露和短期(24 h)暴露2组进行低温(3、1、0、-1、-3、-5、-6、-7、-9、-12℃)暴露实验,得出致死温度LT50、LT75和LT99。利用CLIMEX 1.0适生性分析软件与Arc GIS 10.2地理信息系统软件以LT50、LT75和LT99为界限划分风险分布区。利用CLIMEX软件导入新的温度数据对松材线虫进行适生性分析,将结果导入Arc GIS中,进行IDW插值,以EI值划分松材线虫风险分布区。对有无低温胁迫及不同低温胁迫时间下的中度风险分布北线的变化趋势进行分析。【结果】松材线虫长期冷胁迫(30 d)条件下的中度风险分布区界线比短期冷胁迫(24 h)条件下和无胁迫条件下(以EI值划分)的中度风险分布区界线明显靠北。【结论】随着低温胁迫时间的延长,松材线虫分布区有向北扩散的趋势,即产生一定的低温适应性进化。     

椰子木蛾在中国的适生区预测

【目的】椰子木蛾Opisina arenosella Walker是2013年在海南、广东和广西等地新发现的棕榈植物的危险性入侵害虫,其入侵范围有不断扩大的趋势。【方法】应用CLIMEX软件对椰子木蛾在中国的潜在适生区进行了分析。【结果】结果表明椰子木蛾在中国适生范围广,长江以南广大地区均是其高度适生区。【结论】这些区域是我国棕榈植物的主要分布区,建议加强检疫和监测措施,防止其进一步扩散。