Land use improves spatial predictions of mountain plant abundance but not presence‐absence

Question: Does a land‐use variable improve spatial predictions of plant species presence‐absence and abundance models at the regional scale in a mountain landscape? Location: Western Swiss Alps. Methods: Presence‐absence generalized linear models (GLM) and abundance ordinal logistic regression models (LRM) were fitted to data on 78 mountain plant species, with topo‐climatic and/or land‐use variables available at a 25‐m resolution. The additional contribution of land use when added to topo‐climatic models was evaluated by: (1) assessing the changes in model fit and (2) predictive power, (3) partitioning the deviance respectively explained by the topo‐climatic variables and the land‐use variable through variation partitioning, and (5) comparing spatial projections. Results: Land use significantly improved the fit of presence‐absence models but not their predictive power. In contrast, land use significantly improved both the fit and predictive power of abundance models. Variation partitioning also showed that the individual contribution of land use to the deviance explained by presence‐absence models was, on average, weak for both GLM and LRM (3.7% and 4.5%, respectively), but changes in spatial projections could nevertheless be important for some species. Conclusions: In this mountain area and at our regional scale, land use is important for predicting abundance, but not presence‐absence. The importance of adding land‐use information depends on the species considered. Even without a marked effect on model fit and predictive performance, adding land use can affect spatial projections of both presence‐absence and abundance models.     

Logistic模型预测东北越冬代水稻二化螟发生期

2001~2003年在吉林省柳河县绿色大米生产稻区,采用Logistic模型拟合越冬代二化螟Chilosuppressalis(Walker),有效积温和诱捕器诱蛾百分率的关系。结果表明logistic模型有较好的拟合性。由模型拟合结果预测当地越冬代二化螟发蛾始盛期、高峰期和盛末期所需有效积温分别为275.9,358.4和440.8日.度,可以适时指导大田防治。     

Variation partitioning for range expansion of an introduced species: the common waxbill Estrilda astrild in Portugal

The common waxbill Estrilda astrild was first introduced to Portugal, from Africa, in 1964, from where it has spread to much of the country and to Spain. We modelled the expansion of this species on a 20×20-km UTM grid in 4-year periods from 1964 to 1999. Colonisation process on a grid was modelled as a function of several biophysical and spatio-temporal variables through the fitting of several multiple logistic equations. Variation partitioning confirmed the importance of the spatial-temporal component, explaining 33% of the total variation, followed by the combined effects of both environmental and spatial-temporal variables (around 25%). Only 11% of the total variation can be attributed strictly to the considered environmental factors.     

三江源牧户参与草地生态保护的意愿

牧民对环境保护的响应是生态保护战略有效实施的关键,主体参与意愿直接影响生态保护项目实施的成效和可持续性,是区域生态经济可持续发展的前提。通过对三江源地区约283户藏族牧民通过翻译进行结构式访谈,采用Logistic模型从主体角度探讨了牧户愿意参与生态保护行为响应的主要影响因素。结果表明:(1)三江源区域约87%的牧户认为生态保护对牧户有好处,但受各种内外部因素的影响只有近70%的牧户是在政府主导下基于有限理性而被动的参与生态保护行为响应。(2)三江源牧户参与生态保护行为响应的意愿主要受当地政府的保护力度及牧户对生态保护外部性的认知水平、生计水平、外界接触程度、工作机会的正影响,并受牧户的年龄、离中心城镇的距离和区域气候恶劣情况等因素的负影响,系数依次为:2.22、3.98、1.93、2.26、1.48、-1.63、-2.43、-0.92。(3)牧户的生计水平、退化感知和外部性认知是影响三江源牧户参与生态保护意愿的关键因素,牧户参与生态保护意愿的概率不仅仅是牧户出于自身利益和未知风险考虑下被动的响应,更是当地政府的环境知识宣传和保护投入影响下个体的抉择结果。(4)创造更多的就业机会和解决牧户的单一化生计问题,构建完善地生态补偿机制让牧户分享生态保护的外部性效益,并激励牧户主动参与生态保护行为响应,才能最终实现区域生态保护、牧户幸福和生态经济可持续发展的多赢局面。     

Analysis of kinetic,stoichiometry and regulation of glucose and glutamine metabolism in hybridoma batch cultures using logistic equations

Batch cultures were carried out to study the kinetic, stoichiometry, and regulation of glucose and glutamine metabolism of a murine hybridoma line. Asymmetric logistic equations (ALEs) were used to fit total and viable cell density, and nutrient and metabolite/product concentrations. Since these equations were analytically differentiable, specific rates and yield coefficients were readily calculated. Asymmetric logistic equations described satisfactorily uncontrolled batch cultures, including death phase. Specific growth rate showed a Monod-type dependence on initial glucose and glutamine concentrations. Yield coefficients of cell and lactate from glucose, and cell and ammonium from glutamine were all found to change dramatically at low residual glucose and glutamine concentrations. Under stoichiometric glucose limitation, the glucose-to-cell yield increased and glucose-to-lactate yield decreased, indicating a metabolic shift. Under stoichiometric glutamine limitation the glutamine-to-cell and glutamine-to-ammonium yields increased, but also glucose-to-cell yield increased and the glucose-to-lactate yield decreased. Monoclonal antibody production was mainly non-growth associated, independently of glucose and glutamine levels.     

Environmental and neighbourhood effects on tree fern distributions in a neotropical lowland rain forest

Questions: To what extent are the distributions of tropical rain forest tree ferns (Cyatheaceae) related to environmental variation, and is habitat specialization likely to play a role in their local coexistence? Location: Lowland rain forest at La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica. Methods: Generalized linear (GLM) and generalized additive (GAM) logistic regression were used to model the incidence of four tree fern species in relation to environmental and neighbourhood variables in 1154 inventory plots regularly distributed across 6 km² of old‐growth forest. Small and large size classes of the two most abundant species were modelled separately to see whether habitat associations change with ontogeny. Results: GLM and GAM model results were similar. All species had significant distributional biases with respect to micro‐habitat. Environmental variables describing soil variation were included in the models most often, followed by topographic and forest structural variables. The distributions of small individuals were more strongly related to environmental variation than those of larger individuals. Significant neighbourhood effects (spatial autocorrelation in intraspecific distributions and non‐random overlaps in the distributions of certain species pairs) were also identified. Overlaps between congeners did not differ from random, but there was a highly significant overlap in the distributions of the two most common species. Conclusions: Our results support the view that habitat specialization is an important determinant of where on the rain forest landscape tree ferns grow, especially for juvenile plants. However, other factors, such as dispersal limitation, may also contribute to their local coexistence.     

不同产地苦楝苗期生长节律研究

苦楝在我国分布广泛,具有丰富的遗传变异性。为进一步做好苦楝种源筛选和良种选育工作,该文对不同产地苦楝实生苗生长性状和各阶段的生长特点进行了比较分析,初步揭示了苦楝苗期生长规律。以15个产地的1年生实生苗为试材,对苗高、地径、复叶生长及生物量积累等生长性状进行了观测分析,并用Logistics方程对生长节律进行了拟合。结果表明:(1)不同产地苦楝苗高、地径生长差异均达显著水平,根生物量、茎生物量及复叶相关性状差异均达极显著性水平;(2)苗高和地径生长均呈现慢-快-慢的S型生长规律,且均存在2次生长高峰,与苗高生长高峰出现时间相比,地径生长高峰出现时间较晚;(3)Logistic拟合方程的R²为0.976～0.994,均达到极显著相关水平,说明可用Logistic方程拟合苦楝的生长节律;(4)总体上地径速生期较苗高速生期长20～30 d,北方产地苗高和地径进入速生期和结束速生期的时间均早于南方产地,速生期苗高和地径累积生长量均超过总生长量的60%;(5)各生长指标均与纬度负相关,苗高、生物量及复叶面积与经度正相关,其他指标与经度负相关。综上结果表明,苦楝为全期生长型树种,各生长性状在产地间达显著差异水平,生长受纬度和经度双重控制,以纬度控制为主。