用诱蛾量和有效积温模型预测东北越冬代水稻二化螟发生期

在吉林省柳河县绿色稻米生产区,采用1999～2001年间3月1日后有效积温和水稻二化螟诱捕器诱蛾量数据,用线性模型探讨了当地有效积温和诱捕器诱蛾量之间的关系。由建立的线性模型确定越冬代水稻二化螟发蛾始盛期、高峰期和盛末期所需有效积温分别为238.323、339.418和483.398日·度。 采用吉林长春稻区2002～2004年3年间数据比较模型预测值和观察值之间的差异,有效积温的误差值在3.882～26.943日·度之间,相应时间误差为 0～3 天。模型预测准确性较好,可用以及时指导大田防治。     

数学分析方法在水稻螟虫测报上的应用研究

本利用福建省将乐县1963-1994年测报积累的观察赍料和气象资料,建立了越冬代二化螟、三化螟蛾高峰逐步回归顶测模型．Fuzzy分析预报模型,四代三化螟发生期发生量璜测模型。     

二化螟雌蛾生殖系统和卵巢发育观察

<正> 近年,一代二化螟Chilo suppressalis Wa-lker在长江流域尤以丘陵山区,海拔在1000米左右以下危害十分突出。为了加强对二化螟种群的发生期,发生量的预测,作者在1982～1985年对越冬代二化螟幼虫进行室内饲养为蛾。通过对不同蛾龄的雌蛾解剖,并对其生殖系统的形态和卵巢发育程度进行了观察。     

福建建宁县灯下二化螟蛾雌雄性比出现的异常现象

在已往的教材中,对水稻二化螟ＣｈｉｌＯｓｕｐｐｒｅｓｓａｔｉｓ（Ｗａｌｋｅｒ）蛾雌雄趋光性的差异总是描述成二化螟雌蛾较雄蛾趋光性强,灯诱雌蛾较多。但笔者经对我县１９８９～１９９５年间灯诱（２００Ｗ白炽灯,每年点灯从３月３１日至１０月３１日）二化螟蛾的观察统计,结果却出现异常现象（详见表）。从表中看出,除１９９３年越冬代雌蛾略多外,其余各年份及各世代均为雄蛾远较雌蛾多。因此,笔者认为水稻二化螟蛾趋光性在本县应是雄蛾比雌蛾强,究其原因,尚需进一步观察研究。福建建宁县灯下二化螟蛾雌雄性比出现的异常现象…     

性诱剂监测吉林省水稻二化螟成虫动态及发生世代研究

1998～1999年在吉林省用性诱剂水盆监测二化螟雄蛾季节动态和发生世代,结果发现,1998年长春市越冬代成虫始见期在5月电旬,柳河县在5月底左右,长春市成虫终见期。1998和1999年分别为9月下旬和上旬。可见长春市二化螟成虫伞季活动朔可能长达4个月,而1个世代的历期约为2个月。1999年长春市出现两个相距55天的明显蛾峰,表明存在相当高的二代转化率,从而有助于改变该地二化螟常年只发生1代的传统观点。     

水稻田和茭白田二化螟的比较研究

水稻田越冬代二化螟最早于4月26日开始羽化,其羽化高峰期为5月13－14日,而茭白田越冬代二化螟的始见蛾日为5月5日,比水稻田二化螟迟了9d,羽化始盛期、高峰期、盛末期均比水稻田二化螟迟2－5d,水稻田二化螟越冬幼虫的存活率和化蛹率明显比茭白田二化螟低,而二者的羽化率则差不多,水稻田二化螟羽化成虫的雌雄性比为1：1．44,而茭白田二化螟则接近1：1。室内选择试验表明,水稻田和茭白田二化螟均喜在高大的茭白植株上产卵,而幼虫则选择嫩绿的水稻。然而田间选择性试验证实,二化螟幼虫在钻蛀前无法越过田埂而转移到水稻植株上为害,取食茭白的二化螟个体明显大于取食水稻的二化螟,两种寄生上二化螟幼虫的酯酶同工酶也存在着差异。不繁殖试验表明,茭白和水稻上的二化螟属于同一种,但存在着部分生殖隔离。     

模糊分析预报越冬代二化螟发生期

二化螟Chilosopressalis（Walker）是建宁县水稻重要害虫,尤其一代为主害代。因此,准确及时预测其发生是测报工作的重要一环。但因二化螟越冬场所和越冬虫龄的复杂性,常给测报,特别是长期预报带来困难。基层测报现常用功臣法剥查越冬代化蛹进度,预测发生期,不仅工作量大,且难于准确,无法作长期预报．为解决这一矛盾,笔者利用10年资料,从35个气象因子中,采用普查法［‘］筛选出2个预报因于：x;——当年1月份降雨量（mm）。x。——上年间月份积温阳度）,对预报对象少——越冬代二化螟蛾高峰（月、日）应用FuZZy分析［’,’］…     

性信息素大面积诱捕法防治东北越冬代水稻二化螟

2002年和2003年,在吉林省柳河县绿色大米生产基地,开展了应用性信息素诱捕法防治越冬代水稻二化螟Chilo suppressalis的试验。与对照区相比,2002年和2003年两年诱捕区诱蛾量分别下降84.54%和83.75%,雌虫交配率分别下降54.10%和47.67%; 同时,诱杀区二化螟卵孵化率下降25.50%,卵块密度也显著降低。2002年二化螟雌雄性比由对照区的1.14上升为诱捕区的3.96,而 2003年由1.12上升到3.84;诱杀区二化螟幼虫为害率,无论是枯鞘、枯心,还是白穗,也较之对照区显著下降,造成稻谷产量损失也明显降低。通过上述一系列评价指标表明性信息素诱捕法能有效控制东北越冬代水稻二化螟,可为东北绿色大米的可持续生产提供技术支持。     

二化螟在豫南的发生时期及其方法试验

二化螟在豫南每年主要发生两代,个别发生一代或三代。通过饲养和测螟灯观察:越冬代蛾一般始见于4月下旬或5月初,盛发于5月中、下旬至6月初,终见期为6月中、下旬;第一代蛾一般始见于7月上旬,盛发于7月中、下旬,终见于8月上、中旬;第二代蛾一般始见于8月中、下旬,盛见于8月下旬,终见于8月底或9月中旬。今将各虫态历期和出现期分别制为表1和表2。     

水稻二化螟［Chilo suppressalis（Walker）］发生期预测模型的探讨

本文利用福建省永安市１９７８－１９８８年诱虫灯下二化螟蛾发生期资料和气象资料,通过影响因子与预测对象的相关分析来选择初选因子．再应用逐步判别分析方法建立第一代二化螟蛾发生期的预测模型。经对历史资料的回报检验,该模型的判别率达９０．１－１００％;经１９８９和１９９０年实报,预报等级符合实际发生等级。     

Effect of altitude on seasonal flight activity of Rhagoletis cerasi flies (Diptera: Tephritidae)

The effect of altitudinal variation on the seasonal flight activity of Rhagoletis cerasi (Linnaeus) flies was evaluated along an altitudinal gradient from 150 to 1170 m in Mount Uludag, northwestern Turkey. The predicted dates of fly emergence, flight duration and dates of 5%, 50% and 95% cumulative fly catches at various altitudes were estimated from a degree-day model. Degree-day predictions were compared with those obtained from observations made with yellow sticky traps. The observed and predicted dates of appearance of adults were delayed by 1.4 and 2.0 days for every 100 m increase in altitude, respectively. The delay in phenology events was less at high altitudes than postulated by Hopkins' bioclimatic law, whether observed or predicted. The average absolute difference in predicted and observed dates of cumulative percentage catch of adults was 4.9 and 3.0 days in 1997 and 1998, respectively, but these differences were not significant. Prolonged flight activity was predicted and observed at higher altitudes, but the flight period lasted significantly longer than predicted. The observed flight period varied from 29 to 43 days in 1997 and from 36 to 52 days in 1998 between the lowest and highest altitude on the transect. Altitudinal variation between geographically close locations should be taken into account to properly time monitoring activities and hence to manage R. cerasi populations more effectively.     

Physiological time model of Scirpophaga incertulas (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in rice in Guandong Province, People's Republic of China

Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) is autochthonous and monophagous on rice, Oryza spp., which favors the development of a physiological time model using degree-days (degrees C) to establish a well defined window during which adults will be present in fields. Model development of S. incertulas adult flight phenology used climatic data and historical field observations of S. incertulas from 1962 through 1988. Analysis of variance was used to evaluate 5,203 prospective models with starting dates ranging from 1 January (day 1) to 30 April (day 121) and base temperatures ranging from -3 through 18.5 degrees C. From six candidate models, which shared the lowest standard deviation of prediction error, a model with a base temperature of 10 degrees C starting on 19 January was selected for validation. Validation with linear regression evaluated the differences between predicted and observed events and showed the model consistently predicted phenological events of 10 to 90% cumulative flight activity within a 3.5-d prediction interval regarded as acceptable for pest management decision making. The degree-day phenology model developed here is expected to find field application in Guandong Province. Expansion to other areas of rice production will require field validation. We expect the degree-day characterization of the activity period will remain essentially intact, but the start day may vary based on climate and geographic location. The development and validation of the phenology model of the S. incertulas by using procedures originally developed for pecan nut casebearer, Acrobasis nuxvorella Neunzig, shows the fungibility of this approach to developing prediction models for other insects.     

Phenology of Lacanobia subjuncta (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Washington and Oregon apple orchards

The phenology of Lacanobia subjuncta (Grote & Robinson) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) was investigated in 30 apple orchards in central Washington state and northeastern Oregon from 1998 to 2001 (57 total orchard-yr). Adult captures in pheromone-baited traps were fit to a Weibull distribution to model emergence of the first and second generations. Initial capture of first generation adults was observed at 216.2 +/- 2.6 degree-days (DD) (mean +/- SEM) from 1 March by using a base temperature of 6.7 degrees C. The model predicted that flight was 5 and 95% complete by 240 and 700 degree-days (DD), respectively. Monitoring of oviposition and hatch was used to establish a protandry plus preoviposition degree-day requirement of 160.0 +/- 7.7 DD, as well as to provide data to describe the entire hatch period. Egg hatch was 5 and 95% complete by 395 and 630 DD, respectively. The start of the second flight was observed at 1217.1 +/- 8.3 DD by using an upper threshold for development of 32 degrees C and a horizontal cutoff. The model indicated that the second flight was 5 and 95% complete by 1220 and 1690 DD, respectively. Second generation hatch was 5 and 95% complete by 1440 and 1740 DD, respectively. A discussion of the potential uses of these detailed phenology data in optimizing management strategies is presented.     

An empirical predictive model for the flight period of Platypus koryoensis (Coleoptera: Platypodinae)

Between 2007 and 2009, field studies were conducted in four Quercus mongolica Fischer ex Ledebour forests in Korea to develop an empirical degree-day model for the flight period of the ambrosia beetle, Platypus koryoensis (Murayama). The lower developmental threshold temperature was estimated using an iterative method based on field trap catches and temperatures. The pooled proportion of the total number of beetles found in the traps at the end of the experiment was plotted against the accumulated degree-days at selected baseline temperatures, and these plots were fitted by the Weibull function. The baseline temperature with the highest coefficient of determination was considered the lower developmental threshold temperature, and this was estimated to be 5.8 °C. The explanatory power of the model was 89 %. Moreover, the model accurately predicted the time distributions of P. koryoensis flights in 2011 and 2012 at one of the sites. The estimated median flight dates in 2011 and 2012 were 4 days earlier and 5 days later than the corresponding observed flight dates, respectively. The estimated median date of flight advanced progressively during 1970–2010 by a total of 9 days due to an increase in annual mean temperature.     

月相对两种稻螟灯下诱蛾量的影响

经圆形统计分析安徽省庐江县 1 962～ 2 0 0 1年灯光诱蛾资料 ,发现三化螟和二化螟的诱蛾量受到月相的显著影响。诱蛾量的平均角或集中趋势 ,三化螟对应于农历月 2 7日 1 0时 1 3分 (P <0 0 0 1 ) ,二化螟对应于 2 4日 1 6时 2 2分 (P <0 0 0 1 )。两种稻螟诱蛾量的集中时间差异不显著 (P >0 0 5 )。二者合并 ,得到平均集中时间为 2 5日 1 4时 40分。     

Degree-day Models for Predicting Egg Hatch and Population Increase of Criconemella xenoplax

A degree-day model was derived to predict egg hatch for Criconemella xenoplax. Eggs collected from gravid females were incubated in distilled water at constant temperatures of 10-35 C. Sixty-six percent of all eggs hatched between 13 and 32 C, and 42% hatched at 10 C. All eggs aborted above 32.5 C. Between 25 and 32 C, 8.5 ± 0.5 days were required for egg hatch. Degree-day requirement for egg hatch at 10-30 C was estimated to be 154 ± 5 with a base of 9.03 ± 0.04 C. This base of 9 C was adopted in studies of the relationship between degree-days and nematode population increase on Prunus seedlings grown 9-11 weeks in a greenhouse. Degree-day accumulations were based upon daily averages from maximum and minimum air temperatures. Ratios of final to initial population densities exhibited an exponential pattern in relation to degree-day accumulations with proportionate doubling increment of 0.100 ± 0.049 every 139 ± 8 degree-days. These results provide a means of predicting nematode population increase under greenhouse conditions and a basis for choosing sampling intervals when evaluating nematode multiplication.     

Oriental fruit moth (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) phenology and management with methoxyfenozide in North Carolina apples

The phenology of oriental fruit moth, Grapholita molesta (Busck), on apple (Malus spp.) in North Carolina was studied using pheromone traps and egg sampling in abandoned and commercial orchards in 2000 and 2001, with subsequent development of an oviposition degree-day model and management studies in relation to codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.), phenology. Oriental fruit moth eggs were found in greater numbers on leaves early and on fruit later in the growing season, on the top versus the bottom of the leaf surface, and on the calyx area versus the side or stem end of the fruit. A degree-day (DD) model to predict oriental fruit moth oviposition was developed based on temperature accumulations from peak moth trap capture of the first (overwintering) generation, by using 7.2 and 32.2 degrees C as the temperature limits. The model predicted four ovipositing generations of oriental fruit moth with the second beginning 507 DD after peak moth catch. Using predictions of the oriental fruit moth and codling moth degree-day oviposition models, an experiment was conducted to determine the level of second generation oriental fruit moth control with methoxyfenozide applied under different scenarios for first generation codling moth. Methoxyfenozide was equally effective in managing codling moth and oriental fruit moth for all treatment timings.     

Day-degree models for predicting the generation time and flight activity of local populations of Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) (Lep., Tortricidae) in Greece

The generation time of Lobesia botrana (Den. & Schiff.) was estimated as the number of day-degrees required between the start of a flight and the start of the following flight in two regions in northern Greece. The day-degrees required for the first generation ( x =339.3, Naoussa; x =275.6, Thessaloniki) were significantly shorter than for the second ( x =751.5, Naoussa; x =833.8, Thessaloniki) and the third generations ( x =899.5, Naoussa; x =1197.0, Thessaloniki). Nonlinear models were developed using trap catches of male L. botrana during 1987–1989 for predicting its flight activity. A lower threshold temperature of 6.45°C was used in calculating daily day-degrees from 1 March. The models predicted with sufficient accuracy the accumulated male moth catch and they accounted for the 60–78% and 86–91% of year-to-year variation in male flight activity in Thessaloniki and Naoussa, respectively.     

Phenology simulation model of Scotinophara lurida (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae)

A phenology simulation model was developed for Scotinophara lurida (Burmeister). The components for the model were a degree-day immigration flight model of overwintered adults, temperature-dependent developmental models of each stage, survival rates of each stage, and an adult oviposition model. A degree-day model for immigration flight of overwintered adults was developed with blacklight trap catch data by a Weibull function. Laboratory experiments using seven constant temperature regimens were conducted to determine the effect of temperature on the development of immature stages. Developmental rates of each immature stage fit well to a linear model. Distribution of developmental time for each immature stage was successfully modeled against physiological age by a Weibull function. To determine the temperature effect on longevity, fecundity, and survival of female adults, laboratory and greenhouse experiments were conducted. The adult developmental rate (1/median longevity) was described by a linear model. The oviposition model was developed incorporating the three components of average total fecundity, cumulative oviposition rate function, and survival rate function. The simulation model predicted the time of peak occurrences of life stages of S. lurida well.