| Logistic模型预测东北越冬代水稻二化螟发生期 |
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| 引用本文： | 焦晓国,宣维健,盛承发.Logistic模型预测东北越冬代水稻二化螟发生期[J].昆虫知识,2006,43(2):177-180. |
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| 作者姓名： | 焦晓国 宣维健 盛承发 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院动物研究所,北京,100080;湖北大学生命科学院生态研究所,武汉,430062
2. 中国科学院动物研究所,北京,100080 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 2001~2003年在吉林省柳河县绿色大米生产稻区,采用Logistic模型拟合越冬代二化螟Chilosuppressalis(Walker),有效积温和诱捕器诱蛾百分率的关系。结果表明logistic模型有较好的拟合性。由模型拟合结果预测当地越冬代二化螟发蛾始盛期、高峰期和盛末期所需有效积温分别为275.9,358.4和440.8日.度,可以适时指导大田防治。
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| 关 键 词： | 二化螟 有效积温 诱蛾量 Lgistic模型 预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 01 26 2005 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-01-262005-10-28 |
Timing the flight of overwintered Chilo suppressalis in northeastern China by Logistic model |
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| JIAO Xiao-Guo,XUAN Wei-Jian,SHENG Cheng-Fa.Timing the flight of overwintered Chilo suppressalis in northeastern China by Logistic model[J].Entomological Knowledge,2006,43(2):177-180. |
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| Authors: | JIAO Xiao-Guo XUAN Wei-Jian SHENG Cheng-Fa |
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| Abstract: | An acceptable logistic forecasting model to monitor the flight pattern of the overwintered rice stem borer, Chilo suppressalis (Walker) in northeastern China, was established during 2001～2003, based on the correlation between the pheromone trap catches and relating degree-day accumulations. The degree-day accumulations from 1 March corresponding to the catches of 16%, 50% and 84% total male moths throughout the flight season were 275.9, 358.4 and 440.8, respectively. The model showed that it was helpful for farmers to take decisions to control the pests when the degree-day accumulations from 1 March reached 358.4, approximately 50% of the overwintering generation rice stem borers emerged. |
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| Keywords: | Chilo suppressalis degree-day accumulations trap catches Logistic model forecasting |
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