基于logistic模型的中国自然保护区增长动态分析

中国自然保护区建设已由数量扩张型进入质量效益型的新阶段,运用自然保护区统计年鉴数据,基于logistic模型,借助R语言,对自然保护区发展上限进行了估算。同时,运用高等数据曲线曲率求导方法,对发展阶段进行划分,对持续时长和增长速度进行了测算。结果表明:①面积理论饱和值为15470.00万hm~2;②将自然保护区发展历程分为缓慢起步期(1956—1989年)、快速发展期(1990—2008年)和稳定完善期(2009—至今);③目前则处于稳定完善期,面积已渐近饱和值,数量仍在小幅度增加。希望本研究结果能为自然保护区主管部门制定管理政策、规划以及整合组建以国家公园为主体的自然保护地体系提供参考。     

Raman-based dynamic feeding strategies using real-time glucose concentration monitoring system during adalimumab producing CHO cell cultivation

The use of Process Analytical Technology tools coupled with chemometrics has been shown great potential for better understanding and control of mammalian cell cultivations through real-time process monitoring. In-line Raman spectroscopy was utilized to determine the glucose concentration of the complex bioreactor culture medium ensuring real-time information for our process control system. This work demonstrates a simple and fast method to achieve a robust partial least squares calibration model under laboratory conditions in an early phase of the development utilizing shake flask and bioreactor cultures. Two types of dynamic feeding strategies were accomplished where the multi-component feed medium additions were controlled manually and automatically based on the Raman monitored glucose concentration. The impact of these dynamic feedings was also investigated and compared to the traditional bolus feeding strategy on cellular metabolism, cell growth, productivity, and binding activity of the antibody product. Both manual and automated dynamic feeding strategies were successfully applied to maintain the glucose concentration within a narrower and lower concentration range. Thus, besides glucose, the glutamate was also limited at low level leading to reduced production of inhibitory metabolites, such as lactate and ammonia. Consequently, these feeding control strategies enabled to provide beneficial cultivation environment for the cells. In both experiments, higher cell growth and prolonged viable cell cultivation were achieved which in turn led to increased antibody product concentration compared to the reference bolus feeding cultivation.     

One size does not fit all: Customizing MCMC methods for hierarchical models using NIMBLE

Improved efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo facilitates all aspects of statistical analysis with Bayesian hierarchical models. Identifying strategies to improve MCMC performance is becoming increasingly crucial as the complexity of models, and the run times to fit them, increases. We evaluate different strategies for improving MCMC efficiency using the open‐source software NIMBLE (R package nimble) using common ecological models of species occurrence and abundance as examples. We ask how MCMC efficiency depends on model formulation, model size, data, and sampling strategy. For multiseason and/or multispecies occupancy models and for N‐mixture models, we compare the efficiency of sampling discrete latent states vs. integrating over them, including more vs. fewer hierarchical model components, and univariate vs. block‐sampling methods. We include the common MCMC tool JAGS in comparisons. For simple models, there is little practical difference between computational approaches. As model complexity increases, there are strong interactions between model formulation and sampling strategy on MCMC efficiency. There is no one‐size‐fits‐all best strategy, but rather problem‐specific best strategies related to model structure and type. In all but the simplest cases, NIMBLE's default or customized performance achieves much higher efficiency than JAGS. In the two most complex examples, NIMBLE was 10–12 times more efficient than JAGS. We find NIMBLE is a valuable tool for many ecologists utilizing Bayesian inference, particularly for complex models where JAGS is prohibitively slow. Our results highlight the need for more guidelines and customizable approaches to fit hierarchical models to ensure practitioners can make the most of occupancy and other hierarchical models. By implementing model‐generic MCMC procedures in open‐source software, including the NIMBLE extensions for integrating over latent states (implemented in the R package nimbleEcology), we have made progress toward this aim.     

成年雄性林麝消化道寄生虫群落 对不同扰动策略的响应

人工繁育是当前我国保护野生林麝（Moschus berezovskii）资源的主要手段之一,但在林麝种群复壮的过程中,消化道寄生虫病始终威胁着林麝的健康。为探究林麝消化道寄生虫群落对不同扰动策略的响应,本研究分别使用复合药阿苯达唑伊维菌素粉和单一成分药阿维菌素粉去除林麝体内线虫和绦虫,监测林麝其他寄生虫和群落动态变化。选取60只雄性林麝,随机分为三组,分别为阿苯达唑伊维菌素用药组（20只）、阿维菌素用药组（20只）和未做任何处理的对照组（20只）,并连续采集8周用药组和对照组林麝的新鲜粪便。基于改良的Wisconsin粪便虫卵漂浮计数法检测粪便中的虫卵和卵囊,对实验结果进行Kruskal-Wallis检验、Wilcoxon秩检验、Mann Whitney检验和双因素方差分析。研究结果显示,对照组和阿苯达唑伊维菌素用药组林麝的寄生虫感染均为混合感染,球虫为优势物种,其负载量显著高于线虫和绦虫（P < 0.05),阿维菌素用药组林麝仅感染球虫。药物扰动后,两组用药组的林麝球虫的流行率、平均感染强度均高于对照组,但线虫流行率均低于对照组（27.15%,42.15%）。此外,用药后,阿苯达唑伊维菌素用药组林麝先于阿维菌素用药组再次感染线虫和绦虫。通过比较用药组和对照组林麝寄生虫的群落动态变化,表明林麝消化道寄生虫感染现象较为普遍,多重感染中球虫和蠕虫存在竞争关系,复合药物阿苯达唑伊维菌素粉对林麝寄生虫群落的扰动程度更大,林麝寄生虫群落恢复能力与扰动程度成正比。建议林麝人工繁育基地加强科学性和计划性驱虫,并持续性开展林麝寄生虫感染的监测工作。     

Exploiting nonsystematic covariate monitoring to broaden the scope of evidence about the causal effects of adaptive treatment strategies

In studies based on electronic health records (EHR), the frequency of covariate monitoring can vary by covariate type, across patients, and over time, which can limit the generalizability of inferences about the effects of adaptive treatment strategies. In addition, monitoring is a health intervention in itself with costs and benefits, and stakeholders may be interested in the effect of monitoring when adopting adaptive treatment strategies. This paper demonstrates how to exploit nonsystematic covariate monitoring in EHR‐based studies to both improve the generalizability of causal inferences and to evaluate the health impact of monitoring when evaluating adaptive treatment strategies. Using a real world, EHR‐based, comparative effectiveness research (CER) study of patients with type II diabetes mellitus, we illustrate how the evaluation of joint dynamic treatment and static monitoring interventions can improve CER evidence and describe two alternate estimation approaches based on inverse probability weighting (IPW). First, we demonstrate the poor performance of the standard estimator of the effects of joint treatment‐monitoring interventions, due to a large decrease in data support and concerns over finite‐sample bias from near‐violations of the positivity assumption (PA) for the monitoring process. Second, we detail an alternate IPW estimator using a no direct effect assumption. We demonstrate that this estimator can improve efficiency but at the potential cost of increase in bias from violations of the PA for the treatment process.     

青藏高原草地产量与草畜平衡变化

深入了解青藏高原草地生产力与草畜平衡状态的变化,是青藏高原生态屏障建设和生态环境保护的基础。利用遥感植被指数和叶面积指数产品,基于VIP生态水文过程模型,模拟分析了青藏高原2000—2018年间草地生产力的时空格局,并结合同期农牧业统计资料,分析了青藏高原县域尺度草畜平衡状态的变化。结果表明:青藏高原草地多年平均净初级生产力(NPP)为158.4 g C·m^-2·a^-1;近20年来草地生产力上升趋势明显,显著上升面积的比例为44.7%。气候变暖、降水量增加、草本植物生长期延长和大气CO₂浓度升高是青藏高原草地生产力提高的主要驱动因素。基于草场产量估算的青藏高原平均理论载畜量为1.17 SU·hm^-2,年增长率为0.011 SU·hm^-2。2000年以来青藏高原草地超载情况总体趋于好转,严重超载县的面积比例已降至20%以下,其中超载程度较严重的地区,畜牧业的维持和发展主要依靠作物秸秆补饲。研究结果可为区域农牧业结构调整和生态环境保护提供科学依据。     

北京市植物物候对热岛效应的响应

都市的快速发展致使城市热岛效应日渐加剧。城市绿化对缓解热岛效应有一定的作用,但同时其物候也受到了影响。本文基于遥感影像数据,通过对照北京市热岛区与非热岛区、不同热岛强度等级的植物物候差别,研究热岛效应对植物物候的影响。采用Landsat 8影像对北京市地表温度进行反演,结合空间分析进行热岛效应分区分级识别;通过MOD13A1的归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据,采用Dallimer平均值法和动态阈值法提取植被生长季始期(SOG)、生长季末期(EOG)、生长季长度(LOG)等重要植被物候参数,研究植被物候在热岛区与非热岛区、不同热岛强度等级之间的差异。结果表明:北京市夏季与冬季相比,热岛效应更为显著;利用Dallimer平均值法提取的北京市热岛区SOG比非热岛区提前4 d,EOG延迟9 d,LOG延长13 d;利用动态阈值法提取的SOG提早10 d,EOG推迟4d,LOG延长14 d,动态阈值法提取的物候信息与观测的物候信息更为接近;随着热岛强度等级提高,SOG提前,EOG推迟,LOG延长。本研究丰富了我国华北地区植被物候对热岛效应的响应机制,同时对研究全球变暖对生态系统的影响具有一定价值。     

血浆内皮素配合描记动态脑电图在儿童晕厥诊断中应用的临床意义

摘要 目的：探究血浆内皮素配合描记动态脑电图在儿童晕厥诊断中的应用意义。方法：选择2017年1月至2020年1月于我院接受治疗的83例存在晕厥风险儿童,采集其静脉血样进行血浆内皮素水平测定,并实施动态脑电图检测,而后以倾斜试验结果为金标准,分别分析单纯血浆内皮素、单纯动态脑电图以及血浆内皮素+动态脑电图对晕厥的诊断应用意义。结果：（1）83例入组儿童中阳性为68例,阴性为15例,血浆内皮素检测阳性51例,阴性32例,一致性为77.11 %,灵敏度为73.53 %,特异度为93.33 %,阳性预测值为98.04 %, 阴性预测值为43.75 %;（2）动态脑电图诊断一致性为78.31 %,灵敏度为80.88 %,特异度为66.67 %,阳性预测值为91.67 %,阴性预测值为43.48 %;（3）联合检测诊断一致性为93.98 %,灵敏度为94.12 %,特异度为93.33 %,阳性预测值为98.46 %,阴性预测值为77.78 %;（4）检测方式差异性比较发现,联合检测在一致性、灵敏度、阴性预测值方面明显优于血浆内皮素和动态脑电图检测,在特异度方面优于动态脑电图检测（P<0.05）。结论：血浆内皮素联合描记动态脑电图对儿童晕厥具有较好的诊断辅助价值,能够显著提高诊断的一致性、灵敏度和特异度。     

HFOV联合PS对治疗新生儿ALI/ARDS的疗效及对肺动态顺应性的影响

摘要 目的：探讨高频振荡通气（HFOV）联合肺表面活性物质（PS）对治疗新生儿急性肺损伤/急性呼吸窘迫综合征（ALI/ARDS）的疗效及对肺动态顺应性的影响。方法：选择2018年1月至2020年12月我院新生儿科收治的160例ALI/ARDS患儿进行研究,按照随机数表法分为观察组和对照组,每组80例。对照组患儿给予常频通气（CMV）模式联合PS治疗,观察组患儿给予HFOV模式联合PS治疗。比较两组患儿一般治疗情况、治疗前后肺动态顺应性、动脉血氧分压（PaO₂）、动脉二氧化氮分压（PaCO₂）、氧合指数（OI）、血清肿瘤坏死因子-α（TNF-α）、白细胞介素（IL）-6、IL-10的变化,以及治疗期间并发症发生情况。结果：观察组胸片恢复正常时间、机械通气时间、氧暴露时间、ICU停留时间、住院时间结果均明显短于对照组（P＜0.05）,两组患儿病死率相比较,无统计学意义（P＞0.05）;治疗后12 h、24 h、48 h时,观察组肺动态顺应性及PaO₂、OI结果明显高于对照组,PaCO₂明显比对照组低,差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）;治疗后48 h时,观察组血清TNF-α、IL-6水平均明显低于对照组,IL-10明显比对照组高,差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）;两组治疗期间,呼吸机相关性肺损伤、颅内出血、气漏、呼吸道感染的总发生率比较,无统计学意义（P＞0.05）。结论：HFOV联合PS治疗新生儿ALI/ARDS疗效明显,可有效改善患儿肺动态顺应性,促进血气分析指标恢复,且可降低炎症因子的表达,值得推广应用。     

不同林龄桉树人工林林下物种多样性和生物量的动态变化

采用空间代替时间法和典型抽样法,以四川省威远县桉树(Eucalyptus robusta)人工林为研究对象,综合分析其林下植被物种组成及重要值、灌木层和草本层地上、地下和全株生物量以及物种多样性指数(Shannon-Wiener多样性指数H、Simpson优势度指数H′、丰富度指数D和Pielou均匀度指数JSW),探究林下植被的物种多样性和生物量在5个不同林龄(4,5,6,7,8年生)下的动态变化及二者之间的相关性。结果表明:调查到植物共有210种,隶属79科151属,草本层物种数多于灌木层。草本层的五节芒(Miscanthus floridulus)、芒萁(Dicranop?teris pedata)和灌木层的野牡丹(Melastoma malabathricum)、戟叶悬钩子(Rubus hastifolius)在不同林龄下都占据主要优势地位。随着林龄的增大,郁闭度加大,灌木层的D、H和H′值均表现为先增后减的规律;草本层D、H和H′值均呈先增后减再增再减的双峰趋势。草本层各生物量呈先增后减再增的变化趋势;灌木层各生物量呈先增后减的变化趋势。物种多样性与生物量呈显著正相关,草本层的D、H指数是影响生物量的直接因子。桉树人工林林下植被物种分布、组成、物种多样性和生物量对林龄变化的响应不同,表现为不同的动态特征规律,相关结果为我国西南地区桉树林管理提供了数据支撑。