Phenological models for blooming of apple in a mountainous region

Six phenological series were available for ‘Golden Delicious’ apple blooming at six sites in Trentino, an alpine fruit-growing region. Several models were tested to predict flowering dates, all involving a “chilling and forcing” approach. In many cases, application of the models to different climatic conditions results in low accuracy of prediction of flowering date. The aim of this work is to develop a model with more general validity, starting from the six available series, and to test it against five other phenological series outside the original area of model development. A modified version of the “Utah” model was the approach that performed best. In fact, an algorithm using “chill units” for rest completion and a thermal sum for growing-degree-hours (GDH), whose efficiency changes over time depending on the fraction of forcing attained, yielded a very good prediction of flowering. Results were good even if hourly temperatures were reconstructed from daily minimum and maximum values. Errors resulting from prediction of flowering data were relatively small, and root mean square errors were in the range of 1–6 days, being <2 days for the longest phenological series. In the most general form of the model, the summation of GDH required for flowering is not a fixed value, but a function of topoclimatic variables for a particular site: slope, aspect and spring mean temperature. This approach allows extension of application of the model to sites with different climatic features outside the test area.     

The use of phenological data to calculate chilling units in Olea europaea L. in relation to the onset of reproduction

The aim of this study was to develop a practical method to evaluate the effective relationship between the amount of winter chilling and the response expressed as the spring reproductive re-starting dates in the olive (Olea europaea L.). Two olive cultivars growing in a special olive orchard in Umbria (central Italy) were studied over a 3-year period (1998-2000): the cultivar Ascolana, typical of central Italy, and the cultivar Giarraffa, typical of southern Italy. The spring reproductive restarts were assessed using data from detailed phenological observations made on 60 trees of each cultivar in an effort to establish the exact date of reproductive bud swelling. The chilling phenomenon was evaluated by using 341 functions derived from a formula developed by researchers at Utah State University to calculate chilling units. The mathematical functions are defined, and show the very close relationship between the amount of winter chilling and the spring reproductive response in the two cultivars in the orchard studied. The results can be used to define the relationship between local climate and plant development, and the mathematical approach can be used to draw maps that can show the suitability of different cultivars on the basis of local climatic conditions.     

Influence of temperature on hatching of winter eggs of fruit-tree red spider mite, Panonychus ulmi (Koch)

The effects of the duration and degree of chilling, and the temperature of incubation, on hatching of winter eggs of Panonychus ulmi (Koch) were investigated. For chilling, 0°C and 5°C were more effective than — 5° and 9°, and the limits for the reaction were close to — 10° and 15°. As the chilling period was increased from 60 to 200 days, the percentage hatch on incubation at 21° increased, and the mean incubation time and its variance decreased. Before the maximum effect of chilling was achieved, percentage hatch on incubation at 9° and 15° was higher than at 21°; 27° was lethal to most winter eggs though not to summer eggs. After chilling, the later stages of diapause development could occur at temperatures from 0° to 21°₎ i.e. above and below the threshold temperature for morphogenesis, 6–7° in both winter and summer eggs. Diapause development cannot, therefore, be a unitary process. The significance of the results is discussed in relation to forecasting the time of hatch in the field, and to the phenological aspects of hatching in the spring.     

Predicted changes in the synchrony of larval emergence and budburst under climatic warming

Summary The impact of climatic warming on the synchrony of insect and plant phenologies was modelled in the case of winter moth (Operophtera brumata) and Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis) in the Scottish uplands. The emergence of winter moth larvae was predicted with a thermal time requirement model and the budburst of Sitka spruce was predicted from a previously published model (Cannell and Smith 1983) based on winter chilling and thermal time. The date of emergence of winter moth larvae was predicted to occur earlier under climatic warming but the date of budburst of Sitka spruce was not greatly changed, resulting in decreased synchrony between larval emergence and budburst. The general question of how a change of climate might affect phenological synchrony and insect abundance is discussed.     

Phenological olive chilling requirements in Umbria (Italy) and Andalusia (Spain)

Phenological observations in olive tree (Olea europaea L.), on the first reproductive phase (budburst) and the winter chilling temperatures required for its onset, were analysed over a 4-year period (1998 - 2001). Research was carried out on two different cultivars growing in two Mediterranean olive-growing areas: 'Ascolana' in central Italy and 'Picudo' in southern Spain. The two main objectives of the study were: (1) to evaluate the different amounts of winter chilling, and their relationship with the budburst dates in outdoor olive plantations; and (2) to test the validity in the study areas of two chilling calculation methods, the Aron and the Utah method. Results show that for the Spanish cultivar the average chilling requirement of 997 h was approximately half of that recorded for the Italian cultivar (1848 h). Also, the year-to-year variability in chilling accumulation and the reproductive development date was observed to be higher in the Spanish area than in the Italian one, indicating a more consistent and predictable winter chilling response in the latter. As regards the validity of the methods, the Aron method seems to be more appropriate for use in warmer places, since it yielded better results in the Spanish site.     

Chilling and heat requirements of sweet cherry cultivars and the relationship between altitude and the probability of satisfying the chill requirements

Sweet cherry cultivars have different chilling and heat requirements for breaking rest and flowering. The knowledge of these requirements may be valuable in the selection of the appropriate cultivars for producers and to avoid losses caused by an inadequate cultivar selection in a particular area. Determination of chilling and heat requirements is also important within a breeding programme, when choosing parents to obtain early flowering cultivars. Chilling requirements of seven cherry cultivars growing in south-eastern Spain were calculated using different methods (hours below 7 °C, Utah and Dynamic model), which were compared. Recording hourly average temperatures at several locations during 2 years, the Utah and Dynamic models performed better than hours below 7 °C. Different chilling requirements and slight differences in heat requirements were observed in the studied cultivars. ‘Cristobalina’ and ‘Brooks’, the earlier-flowering cultivars, were those with the lowest chilling requirements. ‘Burlat’, ‘New Star’ and ‘Somerset’ had medium chilling and heat requirements for flowering, and ‘Marvin’ showed the highest values and also the latest blooming date. All the studied cultivars may have their chilling requirements satisfied in the region of Murcia, if grown at least 650 m above sea level. Some cultivars, such as ‘Cristobalina’ and ‘Brooks’, could successfully break dormancy already when grown at an altitude above 325 m.     

A global analysis of the comparability of winter chill models for fruit and nut trees

Many fruit and nut trees must fulfill a chilling requirement to break their winter dormancy and resume normal growth in spring. Several models exist for quantifying winter chill, and growers and researchers often tacitly assume that the choice of model is not important and estimates of species chilling requirements are valid across growing regions. To test this assumption, Safe Winter Chill (the amount of winter chill that is exceeded in 90% of years) was calculated for 5,078 weather stations around the world, using the Dynamic Model [in Chill Portions (CP)], the Chilling Hours (CH) Model and the Utah Model [Utah Chill Units (UCU)]. Distributions of the ratios between different winter chill metrics were mapped on a global scale. These ratios should be constant if the models were strictly proportional. Ratios between winter chill metrics varied substantially, with the CH/CP ratio ranging between 0 and 34, the UCU/CP ratio between −155 and +20 and the UCU/CH ratio between −10 and +5. The models are thus not proportional, and chilling requirements determined in a given location may not be valid elsewhere. The Utah Model produced negative winter chill totals in many Subtropical regions, where it does not seem to be useful. Mean annual temperature and daily temperature range influenced all winter chill ratios, but explained only between 12 and 27% of the variation. Data on chilling requirements should always be amended with information on the location and experimental conditions of the study in which they were determined, ideally including site-specific conversion factors between winter chill models. This would greatly facilitate the transfer of such information across growing regions, and help prepare growers for the impact of climate change.     

Detecting nonlinear response of spring phenology to climate change by Bayesian analysis

The impact of climate change on the advancement of plant phenological events has been heavily studied in the last decade. Although the majority of spring plant phenological events have been trending earlier, this is not universally true. Recent work has suggested that species that are not advancing in their spring phenological behavior are responding more to lack of winter chill than increased spring heat. One way to test this hypothesis is by evaluating the behavior of a species known to have a moderate to high chilling requirement and examining how it is responding to increased warming. This study used a 60‐year data set for timing of leaf‐out and male flowering of walnut (Juglans regia) cultivar ‘Payne’ to examine this issue. The spring phenological behavior of ‘Payne’ walnut differed depending on bud type. The vegetative buds, which have a higher chilling requirement, trended toward earlier leaf‐out until about 1994, when they shifted to later leaf‐out. The date of male bud pollen shedding advanced over the course of the whole record. Our findings suggest that many species which have exhibited earlier bud break are responding to warmer spring temperatures, but may shift into responding more to winter temperatures (lack of adequate chilling) as warming continues.     

Unexpected role of winter precipitation in determining heat requirement for spring vegetation green‐up at northern middle and high latitudes

Heat requirement, expressed in growing degree days (GDD), is a widely used method to assess and predict the effect of temperature on plant development. Until recently, the analysis of spatial patterns of GDD requirement for spring vegetation green‐up onset was limited to local and regional scales, mainly because of the sparse and aggregated spatial availability of ground phenology data. Taking advantage of the large temporal and spatial scales of remote sensing‐based green‐up onset data, we studied the spatial patterns of GDD requirement for vegetation green‐up at northern middle and high latitudes. We further explored the correlations between GDD requirement for vegetation green‐up and previous winter season chilling temperatures and precipitation, using spatial partial correlations. We showed that GDD requirement for vegetation green‐up onset declines towards the north at a mean rate of 18.8 °C‐days per degree latitude between 35°N and 70°N, and vary significantly among different vegetation types. Our results confirmed that the GDD requirement for vegetation green‐up is negatively correlated with previous winter chilling, which was defined as the number of chilling days from the day when the land surface froze in the previous autumn to the day of green‐up onset. This negative correlation is a well‐known phenomenon from local studies. Interestingly, irrespective of the vegetation type, we also found a positive correlation between the GDD requirement and previous winter season precipitation, which was defined as the sum of the precipitation of the month when green‐up onset occur and the precipitation that occurred during the previous 2 months. Our study suggests that GDD requirement, chilling and precipitation may have complex interactions in their effects on spring vegetation green‐up phenology. These findings have important implications for improving phenology models and could therefore advance our understanding of the interplay between spring phenology and carbon fluxes.     

Potential oversummering and overwintering regions for the wheat stripe rust pathogen in the contiguous United States

Epidemics of wheat stripe rust, caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici (Pst), are more frequent in the regions where Pst can oversummer and overwinter. Regions for potential oversummering and overwintering of Pst were determined in the contiguous United States using a survival index (SI) ranging from 0 (most unfavorable) to 10 (most favorable) developed based on long-term weather data. The pathogen can survive in cool summer in the most regions north of latitude 40°N, particularly Washington, Idaho, Montana, Oregon and California. Due to limiting high temperatures, it survives marginally during summer in Arkansas, Delaware, Georgia, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island and Texas. Similarly, unfavorable hot summer restricts summer survival of the pathogen in the most regions south of 40°N except for highlands in the Rocky or Appalachian Mountains. Warm winters favor fungal survival in most regions south of 40°N and the Pacific Coast, including Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas and Washington. Severe winters do not allow survival in most regions north of 40°N and east of the Rocky Mountains, whereas less severe winter in Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Utah and Virginia permits marginal survival of Pst. Most wheat-growing regions have climatic suitability for either oversummering or overwintering. Both oversummering and overwintering can occur in the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon and Washington), Arizona, California, North Carolina, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia. These regions may provide primary inoculum for stripe rust epidemics in their own and surrounding regions.     

A Unique haplotype found in apple accessions exhibiting early bud-break could serve as a marker for breeding apples with low chilling requirements

Most commercial apple cultivars have high to medium chilling requirements and consequently are not grown in regions with warm winters. Furthermore, global climate changes raise the concern that some regions where apples are currently being produced will become unsuitable in the future. Therefore, mapping and understanding the factors governing chilling requirements are important goals towards the breeding of new apple varieties. In this study, we characterized 73 apple accessions: old local accessions, modern cultivars, and selected hybrids, all grown in the Newe Ya’ar germplasm collection in Israel under moderate winter conditions. We measured the time of vegetative bud-break as an indicator of chilling requirements and genotyped the accessions for known genetic markers and for markers we developed by re-sequencing the genome of ‘Anna’, a cultivar with very low chilling requirements. Our results show that while most of the accessions that were characterized as having early bud-break are genetically different from each other, they all share a unique haplotype in a region of ～190 kb, within a previously identified QTL for bud-break time, on chromosome 9. The alleles in the early bud-break-associated haplotype were not found in any of the late accessions tested, suggesting that the causative difference leading to the variation in bud-break time lays within or near this region, and that there is a common ancestor carrying early bud-break trait of the early accessions tested. Moreover, the markers of the unique haplotype can serve as genetic markers to accelerate the breeding of apple cultivars better adapted to warm climates.     

Identification of chilling and heat requirements of cherry trees—a statistical approach

Most trees from temperate climates require the accumulation of winter chill and subsequent heat during their dormant phase to resume growth and initiate flowering in the following spring. Global warming could reduce chill and hence hamper the cultivation of high-chill species such as cherries. Yet determining chilling and heat requirements requires large-scale controlled-forcing experiments, and estimates are thus often unavailable. Where long-term phenology datasets exist, partial least squares (PLS) regression can be used as an alternative, to determine climatic requirements statistically. Bloom dates of cherry cv. ‘Schneiders späte Knorpelkirsche’ trees in Klein-Altendorf, Germany, from 24 growing seasons were correlated with 11-day running means of daily mean temperature. Based on the output of the PLS regression, five candidate chilling periods ranging in length from 17 to 102 days, and one forcing phase of 66 days were delineated. Among three common chill models used to quantify chill, the Dynamic Model showed the lowest variation in chill, indicating that it may be more accurate than the Utah and Chilling Hours Models. Based on the longest candidate chilling phase with the earliest starting date, cv. ‘Schneiders späte Knorpelkirsche’ cherries at Bonn exhibited a chilling requirement of 68.6?±?5.7 chill portions (or 1,375?±?178 chilling hours or 1,410?±?238 Utah chill units) and a heat requirement of 3,473?±?1,236 growing degree hours. Closer investigation of the distinct chilling phases detected by PLS regression could contribute to our understanding of dormancy processes and thus help fruit and nut growers identify suitable tree cultivars for a future in which static climatic conditions can no longer be assumed. All procedures used in this study were bundled in an R package (‘chillR’) and are provided as Supplementary materials. The procedure was also applied to leaf emergence dates of walnut (cv. ‘Payne’) at Davis, California.     

The effects of chilling and forcing temperatures on spring synchrony between larch casebearer and tamarack

1. Spring phenological synchrony can be important for tree-insect interactions. Depending on the magnitude and direction of phenological shifts, overwintering insects could be affected in many ways, for example, facing starvation or having to contend with increased chemical or physical defences of host trees. If temperature has different influences on the phenology of trees and insects, climate change can alter spring phenological synchrony.
2. In this experiment, we exposed tamarack seedlings and larch case bearer larvae from Minnesota, USA, to a variety of chilling and forcing temperatures and measured spring phenology (twig bud break and larval activation). We additionally measured case bearer performance on seedlings that were exposed to different forcing × chilling levels, tracking larval survivorship to adulthood.
3. Warmer forcing enhanced larval activation and bud break, but larval development slowed down past 21°C. Higher chilling temperatures accelerated bud break, but the effect was inconclusive for larvae. There was no chilling × forcing interaction for either species. Spring activity accelerated more quickly with increases in temperature for larvae than for seedlings, resulting in increased phenological synchrony at warmer temperatures. Activation rates for overwintering larvae were highest at 27°C, while survivorship to adulthood following spring activation was highest at 21°C. At temperatures at or beyond 27°C, no larvae reached adulthood.
4. Warmer winters and springs will likely initially increase spring synchrony between tamarack and larch case bearer, exposing larvae to younger, potentially more nutritious foliage, but extremely warm spring temperatures may decrease survivorship of larvae to adulthood.

     

中国北方主产地苹果冷热积累变化及其对始花期的影响

开展气候变化背景下苹果冷热积累变化及其对始花期的影响研究,对指导苹果种植及生产具有重要意义。本研究选取山东福山、山西万荣、甘肃西峰和新疆阿克苏代表中国北方苹果主产地,利用1996—2018年红富士苹果的始花期观测资料和逐时气温数据,采用动态模型、生长度小时模型分别计算逐日冷积累量(CP)和热积累量(GDH),并利用偏最小二乘回归法,对逐日冷、热积累量和各地苹果始花期进行相关分析,以明确各地苹果冷、热积累起止日期和积累量,以及冷、热积累期内温度变化对始花期的影响规律。结果表明: 我国北方主产地苹果冷积累时段集中于10月1日前后至2月中下旬或3月中旬,积累量为74.1～89.3 CP;热积累时段集中于1月下旬前后至始花期,积累量为4010～5770 GDH。西峰和阿克苏冷积累期内平均气温每升高1 ℃,冷积累量将分别增加3.8和5.0 CP;各地热积累期内平均气温每升高1 ℃,热积累量将增加725～967 GDH。与冷积累期内温度变化的影响效应相比,热积累期内温度变化主控我国北方主产地苹果始花期,且气候变暖总体有利于冷积累期内平均气温较低地区的苹果开花和生产。     

Diapause termination of Rhagoletis cerasi pupae is regulated by local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity: escape in time through bet‐hedging strategies

Persistence and thriving of univoltine, herbivore insect species of the temperate zone rely on obligate diapause response that ensures winter survival and synchronization with host phenology. We used a stenophagous fruit fly (Rhagoletis cerasi) with obligate pupae diapause to determine genetic and environmental effects on diapause intensity of geographically isolated populations with habitat heterogeneity. Pupae from two Greek and one German populations with various gene flow rates were exposed at five constant chilling temperatures (0–12 °C) for different durations and then incubated at a high temperature until all adults have emerged. Pupae diapause intensity differs among Greek and German populations, suggesting an adaptive response to habitat heterogeneity (mostly differences in phenology patterns of local host cultivars). Moderately warm winter temperatures, such as 8 °C, promote diapause termination in all three populations. Insufficient chilling (short duration or warmer temperatures) regulates the expression of prolonged dormancy. Interestingly, extended chilling (longer than required for terminating diapause) ‘return’ pupae to another (facultative) cycle of dormancy enabling adults to emerge during the next appropriate ‘window of time’; a strategy first time reported for univoltine insects. Consequently, diapause duration of R. cerasi is determined both by i) the adaptive response to local climatic conditions (annual dormancy) and ii) the plastic responses to interannual climatic variability resulting in two types of long life cycles within populations, prolonged and facultative dormancy as response to insufficient chilling and extended exposure to chilling, respectively. Long life cycles are expressed as a part of dormancy bet‐hedging strategies of R. cerasi populations.     

Chilling and heat requirements for leaf unfolding in European beech and sessile oak populations at the southern limit of their distribution range

With global warming, an advance in spring leaf phenology has been reported worldwide. However, it is difficult to forecast phenology for a given species, due to a lack of knowledge about chilling requirements. We quantified chilling and heat requirements for leaf unfolding in two European tree species and investigated their relative contributions to phenological variations between and within populations. We used an extensive database containing information about the leaf phenology of 14 oak and 10 beech populations monitored over elevation gradients since 2005. In parallel, we studied the various bud dormancy phases, in controlled conditions, by regularly sampling low- and high-elevation populations during fall and winter. Oak was 2.3 times more sensitive to temperature for leaf unfolding over the elevation gradient and had a lower chilling requirement for dormancy release than beech. We found that chilling is currently insufficient for the full release of dormancy, for both species, at the lowest elevations in the area studied. Genetic variation in leaf unfolding timing between and within oak populations was probably due to differences in heat requirement rather than differences in chilling requirement. Our results demonstrate the importance of chilling for leaf unfolding in forest trees and indicate that the advance in leaf unfolding phenology with increasing temperature will probably be less pronounced than forecasted. This highlights the urgent need to determine experimentally the interactions between chilling and heat requirements in forest tree species, to improve our understanding and modeling of changes in phenological timing under global warming.     

Apple (Malus pumila var. domestica) phenology is advancing due to rising air temperature in northern Japan

Recent studies show advancing onset of plant growing season in many regions for the last several decades. With the well‐established dependence of plant phenology on temperature, these trends are interpreted as an indication of global warming. For several decades, however, other determinants of plant phenology, e.g. varieties and trends in managed systems, may have changed and confounded the phenological trends. In this study, we tested if long‐term changes in phenology of apple (Malus pumila var. domestica) are attributable to long‐term changes in temperature by comparing the phenological response to long‐term trend in air temperature, which is of our interest, with that to year‐to‐year fluctuation in air temperature, which should represent the real effect of temperature on phenology. We collected records of air temperature and phenological events (budding and flowering) in apple from 1977 to 2004 at six locations in Japan. Linear trends in flowering showed advancing rate in the range from 0.21 to 0.35 day yr^?1, statistically significant at three locations (P<0.05). We also found a warming trend in mean air temperature throughout March and April, with which flowering was closely correlated, in the range from 0.047 to 0.077 °C yr^?1, statistically significant at five locations (P<0.05). We separated the temperature time‐series into two components: a long‐term trend and a year‐to‐year fluctuation, by fitting smoothing spline to the trend and taking the residuals as the anomaly. We then fit a multiple regression model of phenological response to air temperature with separate coefficients for long‐term trend and anomaly. Flowering date responded to the long‐term trend at ?3.8 day °C^?1 and to the anomaly at ?4.6 day °C^?1. The temperature coefficients were not statistically different from each other or among locations, suggesting that the advance of apple phenology has predominantly been caused by the temperature increase across the locations studied. The same result was also observed with budding.     

Non-linear loss of suitable wine regions over Europe in response to increasing global warming

Evaluating the potential climatic suitability for premium wine production is crucial for adaptation planning in Europe. While new wine regions may emerge out of the traditional boundaries, most of the present-day renowned winemaking regions may be threatened by climate change. Here, we analyse the future evolution of the geography of wine production over Europe, through the definition of a novel climatic suitability indicator, which is calculated over the projected grapevine phenological phases to account for their possible contractions under global warming. Our approach consists in coupling six different de-biased downscaled climate projections under two different scenarios of global warming with four phenological models for different grapevine varieties. The resulting suitability indicator is based on fuzzy logic and is calculated over three main components measuring (i) the timing of the fruit physiological maturity, (ii) the risk of water stress and (iii) the risk of pests and diseases. The results demonstrate that the level of global warming largely determines the distribution of future wine regions. For a global temperature increase limited to 2°C above the pre-industrial level, the suitable areas over the traditional regions are reduced by about 4%/°C rise, while for higher levels of global warming, the rate of this loss increases up to 17%/°C. This is compensated by a gradual emergence of new wine regions out of the traditional boundaries. Moreover, we show that reallocating better-suited grapevine varieties to warmer conditions may be a viable adaptation measure to cope with the projected suitability loss over the traditional regions. However, the effectiveness of this strategy appears to decrease as the level of global warming increases. Overall, these findings suggest the existence of a safe limit below 2°C of global warming for the European winemaking sector, while adaptation might become far more challenging beyond this threshold.     

气候波动对西安39种木本植物展叶始期及其积温需求的影响

过去几十年来暖春等异常气候事件发生的频次和强度显著增加, 使植物春季物候期发生了明显变化。但异常气候事件对植物春季物候积温需求的影响仍不清楚, 限制了对未来物候变化预测精度的提升。该研究利用西安植物园1963-2018年39种木本植物的展叶始期和相应气象数据, 首先根据3-4月平均气温划分了偏冷年、正常年和偏暖年, 对比了冷暖年相对于正常年的展叶始期变化。其次, 利用3种积温算法计算了各植物逐年的展叶始期积温需求, 比较了积温需求在冷暖年和正常年的差异。最后, 评估了传统积温模型在模拟偏冷或偏暖年展叶始期时的误差。结果表明, 所有植物的展叶始期在偏暖年比正常年平均早8.6天, 而在偏冷年平均晚8.2天。在偏暖年, 大多数物种展叶始期的积温需求(以5 ℃为阈值, 平均257.5度日)显著高于正常年(平均195.1度日); 在偏冷年的积温需求(平均168.0度日)低于正常年, 但在统计上差异不显著。就不同类群而言, 古老类群相对于年轻类群在偏冷年的推迟天数更多, 积温需求变化较小, 但在偏暖年无显著差异。不同生活型间物候与积温需求变化也无显著差异。造成偏暖年积温需求增加的可能原因是偏暖年冬季气温较高, 导致植物受到的冷激程度减轻, 从而抑制了后续的展叶。在正常年, 积温模型模拟木本植物展叶始期的平均误差仅为0.4-1.9天。在偏暖年和偏冷年, 模拟值分别比观测值平均早4.1天和晚3.0天。因此在预测未来物候变化时, 需要考虑气候波动条件下的积温需求变化。