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1.
未来气候变化对四川盆地生命地带的影响模拟   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
根据未来气候变化的趋势 ,利用生态信息系统 (EIS)技术 ,采用修正后的Holdridge生命地带模型 ,并结合海拔因素 ,模拟了四川盆地在未来气候 5种水热条件下可能出现的生命地带类型。结果表明 ,随着未来全球气温的升高 ,四川盆地内森林地带总分布面积将增加 ,高山草甸或冻原地带分布面积将减少 ,亚热带荒漠地带将出现 ,整个生命地带的分布将会沿东南至西北方向发生类型和地界的推移  相似文献   

2.
黄土高原不同植被覆被类型NDVI对气候变化的响应   总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8  
刘静  温仲明  刚成诚 《生态学报》2020,40(2):678-691
植被与气候是目前研究生态与环境的重要内容。为探究黄土高原地区植被与气候因子之间的响应机制,利用线性趋势分析、Pearson相关分析、多元线性回归模型以及通径分析的方法,对黄土高原2000—2015年全区和不同植被覆被类型区内NDVI与气候因子的变化趋势以及相互作用关系进行分析。植被覆被分类数据和植被指数数据分别来源于ESA CCI-LC(The European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Land Cover)以及MODND1T/NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)。结果表明:(1) 2000—2015年黄土高原全区植被年NDVI_(max)显著增加的区域占总面积的74.25%,不同植被覆被类型年NDVI_(max)分别为常绿阔叶林常绿针叶林落叶阔叶林落叶针叶林镶嵌草地农田镶嵌林地草地灌木,并且都呈显著增加趋势,其中常绿阔叶林和农田增加幅度最大,为0.012/a。(2)黄土高原全区NDVI与气温、日照、降水和相对湿度等气候因子之间没有显著相关性,但在不同植被覆被类型区,气候因子对NDVI存在显著作用,且不同植被覆被类型差异明显。(3)在全区和不同植被覆被类型区NDVI仅对降水的响应比较一致,气温无论在整个区域尺度还是不同植被覆被类型区对植被的影响均不显著。(4)常绿阔叶林、落叶阔叶林、常绿针叶林及镶嵌林地等以乔木为主的植被覆被类型受年均相对湿度和年总日照时数的显著负效应驱动,草地、镶嵌草地等以草本为主的植被覆被类型则受到年总降水量的显著正效应影响。这说明对植被类型进行区分,更有利于揭示气候对植被的作用机制。  相似文献   

3.
范泽孟 《生态学报》2021,41(20):8178-8191
如何模拟和揭示青藏高原植被生态系统垂直分布在全球气候变化驱动下的时空变化情景,对定量解析青藏高原陆地生态系统对气候变化响应效应具有重要意义。该论文基于Holdridge life zone (HLZ)模型,结合数字高程模型(DEM)数据,改变模型输入参数模式,发展了改进型HLZ生态系统模型。结合1981-2010(T0)时段的气候观测数据和IPCC CMIP5 RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5三种情景2011-2040(T1)、2041-2070(T2)、2071-2100(T3)三个时段气候情景数据,实现了青藏高原植被生态系统垂直分布的时空变化情景模拟。引入生态系统平均中心时空偏移趋势模型和生态多样性指数模型,定量揭示了青藏高原植被生态系统在不同垂直带上的时空变化情景。结果显示:青藏高原共有16种植被生态系统类型;冰雪/冰原、高山潮湿苔原和亚高山湿润森林为青藏高原主要的植被生态系统类型,其面积之和占到了青藏高原总面积的56.26%;高山干苔原、亚高山潮湿森林、山地灌丛、山地湿润森林和荒漠等对气候变化的敏感性总体上高于其它类型;在T0-T3期间,青藏高原的高山湿润苔原、高山干苔原、荒漠呈持续减少趋势,平均每10年将分别减少1.96×104km2、0.15×104km2和1.58×104km2;亚高山潮湿森林、山地湿润森林和山地灌丛呈持续增加趋势,平均每10年将分别增加3.42×104km2、2.98×104km2和1.19×104km2;RCP8.5情景下青藏高原的植被生态系统平均中心的偏移幅度最大,RCP4.5情景下的偏移幅度次之,而RCP2.6情景下的偏移幅度最小。另外,在三种气候变化情景驱动下,青藏高原植被生态系统的生态多样性呈减少趋势。总之,未来不同情景的气候变化将直接影响青藏高原植被生态系统的时空分布格局及其生态多样性,气候变化强度越高,影响就越大,而且气候变化对青藏高原植被生态系统的影响呈现出从低海拔到高海拔递增的影响效应。  相似文献   

4.
青海省植被净初级生产力(NPP)时空格局变化及其驱动因素   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
植被净初级生产力(NPP)作为陆地生态过程的关键参数,不仅用以估算地球支持能力和评价陆地生态系统的可持续发展,也是全球碳循环的重要组成部分和关键环节。基于2000—2014年MOD17A3年均NPP数据和气象站点气温、降水资料,采用简单差值、趋势分析、相关性分析和Hurst指数等方法,分析了青海省NPP的时空变化特征及其与气候因子的关系。结果表明:①青海省植被年均NPP在2000—2014年间整体分布呈现由南到北、由东到西递减的趋势,各生态区的空间存在显著差异,表现为Ⅱ区Ⅰ区Ⅲ区Ⅳ区Ⅴ区。②2000—2014年,青海省NPP变化趋势由北到南、由西到东呈现逐渐增加趋势,平均趋势系数为0.61,NPP值增加的区域占总面积的15%,其中显著增加区域为2.8%,轻度增加区域为12.2%。③青海省NPP值的Hurst的值域范围为0—0.39,均值为0.12,除了河流湖泊,建筑用地和未利用土地,青海省NPP变化特征为反持续性特征。④气候因子(年平均降水量和年均气温)对年均NPP的分布有影响,海拔的高低造成气温、降水和土壤的差异,间接影响植被NPP,15年土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)表现为草地面积减少最多,这是导致NPP减少的主要原因。  相似文献   

5.
中国西南地区土地覆盖情景的时空模拟   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
李婧  范泽孟  岳天祥 《生态学报》2014,34(12):3266-3275
气候植被类型的空间分布与土地覆盖类型的空间分布在时空层次上具有很好的相关性和一致性。在运用HLZ生态系统模型获得CMIP5的3种气候情景RCP26、RCP45、RCP85情景下西南地区未来90a(2011—2100年)HLZ生态系统时空分布情景数据的基础上,结合2010年土地覆盖现状数据,构建了土地覆盖情景的空间分析模型,并在此基础上,实现了西南地区未来90a土地覆盖情景的时空模拟分析。模拟结果表明:3种气候情景下,西南地区未来90a的落叶针叶林、落叶阔叶林、草地、耕地、冰雪、荒漠及裸岩石砾地等土地覆盖类型面积将呈逐渐减少趋势;常绿针叶林、常绿阔叶林、混交林、灌丛、湿地、建设用地、水体等土地覆盖类型面积则呈逐渐增加趋势。其中,湿地增加速度最快(平均每10a增加5.28%),荒漠及裸岩石砾地减少速度最快(平均每10a减少2.34%)。  相似文献   

6.
 应用KAPPA一致性检验方法,比较研究了4个常用的气候植被分类模型:Penman模型、Holdridge生命地带系统、Kira模型和Thornthwaite模型对中国植被分布模拟的一致性和适用性。结果表明:这4个常用的气候 植被分类模型对中国植被区划一级分类的植被地理分布模拟效果较好。其中,Holdridge生命地带系统的KAPPA值达到0.57,模拟效果优于其它三者。但对特定地区,如青藏高原的植被地理分布,所有模型均需改进或引入新的影响因子才能较好地模拟二级植被区划的植被地理分布。1)Penman模型对温带草原和青藏高原的植被地理分布模拟的KAPPA值超过0.50,是4个模型中对青藏高原植被地理分布模拟效果最好的。2)Thornthwaite模型对热带雨林、季雨林植被地理分布模拟的KAPPA值达到0.40,可以弥补Holdridge生命地带系统对热带植被地理分布模拟精度的不足。3) Holdridge生命地带系统对中国植被地理分布模拟的效果最佳,但对西部季雨林、雨林区域(52)、西部草原亚区域(63)、青藏高原温性荒漠地带(86)和温性草原地带(84)的模拟程度不理想。4)Kira模型对亚热带常绿阔叶林植被地理分布的模拟效果可与Holdridge生命地带系统相媲美;对低海拔和湿润、湿润地区植被地理分布的模拟效果尚可,但在温带荒漠区与青藏高原区植被地理分布的模拟效果与实际相差较远。  相似文献   

7.
鄱阳湖流域作为较突出的碳汇功能区,深入掌握不同土地覆被碳素利用率(CUE)和水分利用效率(WUE)的时空分异规律及其对气候因子的响应,对明确气候变化背景下该流域生态功能和碳水循环有重要意义。利用MODIS数据产品,结合流域土地利用和气象监测数据,辅以趋势分析和相关分析等方法研究了2000-2014年鄱阳湖流域不同土地利用类型CUE和WUE的时空变化特征,并探讨了其与降水、气温和日照时数的相关性。结果表明:1)鄱阳湖流域CUE和WUE多年平均值分别为0.458和0.682 gC/kgH2O,不同土地利用类型的CUE大小依次为草地 > 水田 > 其他林地 > 旱地 > 疏林地 > 灌木林 > 有林地,WUE大小依次为有林地 > 灌木林 > 旱地 > 疏林地 > 水田 > 其他林地 > 草地;2)鄱阳湖流域CUE、WUE在研究时段内均呈微弱下降趋势,各土地利用类型CUE和WUE则表现出较大的年际波动,且年际变化趋势率具有高度的相似性,其中林地各类型下降趋势最大,其次是旱地和水田,草地最小;3)降水是影响鄱阳湖流域土地覆被碳水利用效率变化的关键因素,其他因子与CUE和WUE的相关性均不显著,不同覆被CUE和WUE对气温、降水和日照时数的响应程度存在较大差异。  相似文献   

8.
范泽孟  范斌 《生态学报》2019,39(14):5028-5039
欧亚大陆复杂多样的植被生态系统在全球气候变化的驱动下,其时空分布格局将发生系列的偏移变化,进而对欧亚大陆"一带一路"沿线国家和地区的生态环境产生重要影响。如何从全球气候变化驱动的角度来实现欧亚大陆植被生态系统时空偏移趋势的模拟分析,已成为"一带一路"沿线国家和地区生态环境研究的热点科学问题之一。在对HLZ生态系统模型进行改进和构建植被生态系统平均中心时空偏移分析模型的基础上,基于欧亚大陆的气候观测数据(1981—2010年)和CMIP5 RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5三种情景数据(2011—2100年),实现欧亚大陆植被生态系统平均中心时空偏移趋势的模拟分析。结果表明:欧亚大陆植被生态系统平均中心主要分布在欧亚大陆的中部和南部地区;3种气候情景下,欧亚大陆的亚热带干旱森林、暖温带湿润森林、亚热带有刺疏林、亚热带潮湿森林、冷温带潮湿森林、寒温带湿润森林、冷温带湿润森林、亚热带湿润森林、暖温带干旱森林、亚极地/高山湿润苔原和极地/冰原等植被生态系统的平均中心偏移幅度大于其他植被生态系统类型;欧亚大陆植被生态系统在RCP8.5情景下的植被生态系统平均中心偏移幅度大于其他两种情景;在2011—2100年期间,3种气候变化情景下,欧亚大陆植被生态系统平均中心整体上将呈向北偏移的变化趋势。  相似文献   

9.
路中  雷国平  郭一洋  马泉来 《生态学报》2021,41(5):1894-1906
土地利用/覆盖变化通过改变地面反射率对区域气候产生直接的影响,探究不同空间尺度下土地利用/覆盖变化对气候因子的影响具有重要意义。基于人机交互式方式提取松嫩平原土地利用信息,利用Matlab编程方式获取研究区域内1985-2015年间不同空间尺度土地利用强度变化情况,研究不同空间尺度下松嫩平原土地利用强度时空变化特征及其对气候因子的影响。研究结论:①不同空间尺度的土地利用强度的均值分别为3.92、3.92、3.93、3.93以及4.34,均值呈现逐渐增加的变化趋势;② 1980-2018年间松嫩平原年平均降水量呈现下降的趋势,其下降的变化率为-9.89 mm/10 a,年平均温度变化呈现上升的趋势,其上升的变化率为0.256℃/10 a;③松嫩平原土地利用强度与降水之间呈现负相关,即对降水量增加表现为抑制作用,与温度之间呈现较为明显的正相关,即对温度的增加表现为促进作用,且随着空间尺度不断增加其抑制或促进作用均表现为先增强后减弱的变化趋势;④偏相关和复相关分析知,松嫩平原土地利用强度与降水、温度呈现明显的相关性,且10 km网格空间尺度上土地利用强度对区域气候的作用表现得更为明显。  相似文献   

10.
1982-2003年贵州省植被覆盖变化及其对气候变化的响应   总被引:10,自引:0,他引:10  
为了揭示贵州植被变化的基本特征及其对气候变化的响应,利用1982-2003年美国国家航天航空局(NASA)的全球植被指数变化研究数据(GIMMS NDVI)和相应的气候资料,通过对逐像元信息的提取和分析,运用回归和相关性分析的方法,研究了近22年来贵州植被覆盖变化及其与主要气候因子的关系.结果表明:1)研究区NDVI、温度和降水量均呈增加趋势,线性倾向率分别为0.001(10a)-1、0.302℃·10a-1、12.776 mm·10a-1;2)月平均植被NDVI随温度呈线性上升趋势;与月平均降水量呈显著的抛物线关系,降水量对植被NDVI的作用存在一个阚值;3)温度与NDVI的年际变化趋势较为相似,具有同步性,年降水量与NDVI的年际变化存在一定的滞后性;4)贵州省不同植被类型对气候变化有不同的响应特征,同时,气温变化较降水量变化对植被变化有更为显著的影响.  相似文献   

11.
The response of natural vegetation to climate change is of global concern. In this research, changes in the spatial pattern of major terrestrial ecosystems from 1956 to 2006 in Inner Mongolia of China were analyzed with the Holdridge Life Zone (HLZ) model in a GIS environment, and net primary production (NPP) of natural vegetation was evaluated with the Synthetic model, to determine the effect of climate change on the ecosystem. The results showed that climate warming and drying strongly influenced ecosystems. Decreased precipitation and the subsequent increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration caused a severe water deficiency, and hence decreased ecosystem productivity. Climate change also influenced the spatial distribution of HLZs. In particular, new HLZs began to appear, such as Warm temperate desert scrub in 1981 and Warm temperate thorn steppe in 2001. The relative area of desert (Cool temperate desert scrub, Warm temperate thorn steppe, Warm temperate desert scrub, Cool temperate desert and Warm temperate desert) increased by 50.2% over the last half century, whereas the relative area of forest (Boreal moist forest and Cool moist forest) decreased by 36.5%. Furthermore, the area of Cool temperate steppe has continuously decreased at a rate of 5.7% per decade; if the current rate of decrease continues, this HLZ could disappear in 173 years. The HLZs had a large shift range with the mean center of the relative life zones of desert shifting northeast, resulting a decrease in the steppe and forest area and an increase in the desert area. In general, a strong effect of climate change on ecosystems was indicated. Therefore, the important role of climate change must be integrated into rehabilitation strategies of ecosystem degradation of Inner Mongolia.  相似文献   

12.
基于地形因素的新疆荒漠植被-气候模型应用研究   总被引:4,自引:1,他引:3  
本研究在新疆荒漠植被型分类的基础上,用植被与气候Holdridge生命带模型进行荒漠植被型的模拟,并用Kappa检验系数进行结果检验,模拟结果很差(0.19),将地形作为模拟模型具体考虑的一个因素,对重新分类的气候区进行二次植被模拟。二次模拟结果Kappa检验系数平均值为0.45,二次模拟整体荒漠植被型模拟结果的Kappa检验系数为0.64,极大地提高了模型模拟的准确度。模型模拟准确度的提高在于将影响新疆水分分配的地形因素作为改进Holdridge生命带模型的参数,该参数的引入为提高Holdridge生命带模型的准确度提供了新的思路,也为较准确地模拟新疆地区的植被提供了新途径。  相似文献   

13.
Aim Our main goals were to develop a map of the life zones for the conterminous United States, based on the Holdridge Life Zone system, as a tool for ecosystem mapping, and to compare the map of Holdridge life zones with other global vegetation classification and mapping efforts. Location The area of interest is the forty-eight contiguous states of the United States. Methods We wrote a PERL program for determining life zones from climatic data and linked it to the image processing workbench (IPW). The inputs were annual precipitation (Pann), biotemperature (Tbio), sea-level biotemperature (T0bio), and the frost line. The spatial resolution chosen for this study (2.5 arc-minute for classification, 4-km for mapping) was driven by the availability of current state-of-the-art, accurate and reliable precipitation data. We used the Precipitation-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model, or PRISM, output for the contiguous United States downloaded from the Internet. The accepted standard data for air temperature surfaces were obtained from the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modelling and Analysis Project (VEMAP). This data set along with station data obtained from the National Climatic Data Center for the US, were used to develop all temperature surfaces at the same resolution as the Pann. Results The US contains thirty-eight life zones (34% of the world's life zones and 85% of the temperate ones) including one boreal, twelve cool temperate, twenty warm temperate, four subtropical, and one tropical. Seventy-four percent of the US falls in the ‘basal belt’, 18% is montane, 8% is subalpine, 1% is alpine, and < 0.1% is nival. The US ranges from superarid to superhumid, and the humid province is the largest (45% of the US). The most extensive life zone is the warm temperate moist forest, which covers 23% of the country. We compared the Holdridge life zone map with output from the BIOME model, Bailey's ecoregions, Küchler potential vegetation, and land cover, all aggregated to four cover classes. Despite differences in the goals and methods for all these classification systems, there was a very good to excellent agreement among them for forests but poor for grasslands, shrublands, and nonvegetated lands. Main conclusions We consider the life zone approach to have many strengths for ecosystem mapping because it is based on climatic driving factors of ecosystem processes and recognizes ecophysiological responses of plants; it is hierarchical and allows for the use of other mapping criteria at the association and successional levels of analysis; it can be expanded or contracted without losing functional continuity among levels of ecological complexity; it is a relatively simple system based on few empirical data; and it uses objective mapping criteria.  相似文献   

14.
The study on climate-vegetation relationship is the basis for determining the re sponse of terrestrial ecosystem to global change. By means of quantitative analysis on climate-vegetation interaction, vegetation types and their distribution pattern could be corresponded with certain climatic types in a series of mathematical forms. Thus, the climate could be used to predict vegetation types and their distribution, the same is in reverse. Potential evapotranspiration rate is a comprehensive climatological index which combines temperature with precipitation, and could be used to evaluate the effect of climate on vegetation. In this respect, Holdridge life zone system has been drawing much attention and widely applied internationally owing to its simplicity. It is especially used in the assessment of sensibility of terrestrial ecosystems and their distribution in accordance with climate change and in prediction of the changing pattern of vegetation under doubled CO2 condition. However, Prentice (1990) pointed out that the accurancy of Holdridge life zone system is less than 40 % when it is used at global scale. The reason may be that the potential evapotranspiration calculated by Thornthwaite method, which is used in Holdridge life zone system, reflects the potential evapotranspiration from small evaporated area, while climate-vegetation classification is based on the regional scale. The authors try to establish a new climate-vegetation classification system based on the regional potential evapotranspiration. According to the following formula: where E designates regional actual evapotranspiration: Ep local potential evapotran-spiration: Epo, regional potential evapotranspiration. Ed can be calculated from Penman model or other models. E can be calculated from the following model: E=r · Rn (r2+Rn2+r · Rn) / (2) (r+Rn) · (r2+Rn2)where r designates precipitation (mm); Rn, net radiation (mm). Thus, Ep0 can be easily obtained. It is used as the regional thermal index (RTI) of climate-vegetation classification,and can be expressed as: RTl = Epo (3) Moisture index is another index of climate-veggetation classification. Usually, it can be expressed as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. However, this ratio can not reflect soil moisture, which is important for plant. The ratio between regional actual evapotranspiration and regional potential evapotranspiration is associated not only with climatic condition but also with soil moisture. So it can be used as the moisture index of climate-vegetation classification, and is defined as regional moisture index (RMI): RMI = E/Epo (5) Based on the average climatological data of 30 years from 647 meteorological observation stations in China. It was found that RTl could well reflect a regional thermal level. The values of RTI were less than 360 mm in cold temperate zone, 360~650 mm in temperate zone, 650~380 mm in warm temperate zone, 780~1100 mm in subtropical zone. And more than 1100 mm in tropical zone. RMI also reflects a regional moisture level very well. The values of RMI was less than 0.4 in desert area, 0.4~0.7 in grassland area and more than 0.7 in forest area. Thus, the climate-vegetation classification in China is established on the basis of the two indices: RTI and RMI. According to this model, the changing patterns of vegetation zones in China are given under the conditions of mean annual temperature in creasing by 2℃ and 4℃ and mean annual precipitation increasing by 20%. The results showed that the areas of forest and grassland would decrease, the vegetation zones would move northward and upward, and the area of desert would increase. The results also indicate that the Tibetan Plateau is an area highly sensitive to global change. It could be considered as an indicative or forewarning area for global change , and therefore, an area of great siginificance for monitoring and research. The possible beneficial effect of global change on China terrestrial ecosystems is that the plantation boundary will move northwards and upwards; and the disadvantageous effect is the expansion of desertification and the increase of instability in climatic conditions.  相似文献   

15.
基于Holdridge和CCA分析的中国生态地理分区的比较   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
孔艳  江洪  张秀英  金佳鑫  肖钟湧  程苗苗 《生态学报》2013,33(12):3825-3836
在前人工作基础上,对中国自然地理要素与生态地理区域的关系进行了综合分析,采用全国地形、土壤、气候、植被及遥感植被指数等数据,综合分析中国范围生态地理区域的分异规律,制订了生态地理分区的初步方案,并建立了相应的地理信息系统.基于Holdridge模型和CCA分析划分中国生态地理分区,建立了分区的指标体系,得到中国生态分区的大致界线,初步总结了各生态地理分区的地形、植被、气候等综合自然地理特征,完成对中国区域生态地理分区的划分.基于CCA分析的生态地理的分区,不仅结合自然区划和生态地理两种方法,而且加入了生态群落和遥感数据的综合应用.结果显示,由于受到模型适用性及数据误差的原因,基于CCA分析的结果比Holdridge模型的结果更合理一些.  相似文献   

16.
Climate change and its cascading impacts are being increasingly recognized as a major challenge across the globe. Climate is one of the most critical factors affecting biomes and their distribution. The present study assessed shifts in biome types of India using the conceptual framework of Holdridge life zone (HLZ) model, minimum distance classifier and climatic datasets to assess the distribution pattern of potential biomes under climate change scenarios in India. Modelling was conducted on the entire region of India using various combinations; (i) current climate scenario, and, (ii) increased temperature and precipitation scenario. The geographical analysis identifies nineteen (19) HLZs in the Indian sub-continent; seven (7) biomes and nineteen (19) sub-biomes. The overall accuracy and kappa coefficient of the biome map prepared for current climate scenario was 82.73% and 0.75, respectively. With the changes in increasing temperature and precipitation scenario, the modelling results predict significant decrease in the area cover for tropical deserts (plains), tropical desert scrubs (lower montane), tropical moist forests (lower montane) and tropical wet forests (lower montane). Along with these changes, there have been substantial increases in the area cover for tropical dry forests (plains) and tropical very dry forests (plains), especially in central and southern India. The results show shifts from very dry tundra (alvar) to dry tundra (alpine) and moist tundra (alpine) and in some places tropical moist forests (sub-alpine) as well. In central India, decrease in tropical moist forests (lower montane) has been observed, while an increase in the area cover of tropical rain forests (plains) in northeastern India has been observed. It is important to understand the impacts and vulnerabilities of projected climate change on forest ecosystems so that better management and conservation strategies can be adopted for biodiversity and forest dependent communities. The knowledge of impact mechanisms will identify adaptation strategies for some conditions which will help in decreasing the susceptibility to anticipated climate change in the forest sector.  相似文献   

17.
To assess the variation in distribution, extent, and NPP of global natural vegetation in response to climate change in the period 1911–2000 and to provide a feasible method for climate change research in regions where historical data is difficult to obtain. In this research, variations in spatiotemporal distributions of global potential natural vegetation (PNV) from 1911 to 2000 were analyzed with the comprehensive sequential classification system (CSCS) and net primary production (NPP) of different ecosystems was evaluated with the synthetic model to determine the effect of climate change on the terrestrial ecosystems. The results showed that consistently rising global temperature and altered precipitation patterns had exerted strong influence on spatiotemporal distribution and productivities of terrestrial ecosystems, especially in the mid/high latitudes. Ecosystems in temperate zones expanded and desert area decreased as a consequence of climate variations. The vegetation that decreased the most was cold desert (18.79%), while the maximum increase (10.31%) was recorded in savanna. Additionally, the area of tundra and alpine steppe reduced significantly (5.43%) and were forced northward due to significant ascending temperature in the northern hemisphere. The global terrestrial ecosystems productivities increased by 2.09%, most of which was attributed to savanna (6.04%), tropical forest (0.99%), and temperate forest (5.49%). Most NPP losses were found in cold desert (27.33%). NPP increases displayed a latitudinal distribution. The NPP of tropical zones amounted to more than a half of total NPP, with an estimated increase of 1.32%. The increase in northern temperate zone was the second highest with 3.55%. Global NPP showed a significant positive correlation with mean annual precipitation in comparison with mean annual temperature and biological temperature. In general, effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems were deep and profound in 1911–2000, especially in the latter half of the period.  相似文献   

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