陆地生态系统碳汇评估方法研究进展

“碳中和”是我国作出的一项重大的国家战略决策,陆地生态系统碳汇作为碳增汇的重要组成部分,在碳中和目标实现的过程中发挥着重要的作用。但当前基于不同观测数据和方法的陆地碳汇计算仍有很大的不确定性,为了全面了解陆地生态系统碳汇分布特征,提高陆地生态系统碳汇评估的准确性,梳理了近年来关于陆地生态系统碳汇评估的国内外研究进展,从“自下而上”和“自上而下”两类途径阐述了陆地生态系统碳汇评估的主要方法(样地清查法、涡度相关法、模型模拟法和碳同化反演法)的主要原理和特征,优势和缺陷,及在不同尺度碳汇研究中的应用,并从土地利用/覆盖变化、气候因素(大气CO₂浓度、氮沉降)、环境因素(太阳辐射、温度、降水)等因素阐述了陆地系统碳汇主要驱动因子;分析了我国陆地生态系统碳汇的主要特征及时空变化趋势,并从人类活动(生态工程)和环境因素阐述了中国陆地生态系统碳汇的驱动因素;最后,展望了新的监测手段和评估方法在提升陆地生态系统碳汇评估精度中的作用,从而更好的服务于我国“碳中和”的长远目标。     

森林生态系统碳循环对全球氮沉降的响应

森林土壤和植被储存着全球陆地生态系统大约46%的碳,在全球碳平衡中起着非常重要的作用。过去几十年来,森林生态系统的碳循环和碳吸存受到了全球氮沉降的深刻影响,因为氮沉降改变了陆地生态系统的生产力和生物量积累。以欧洲和北美温带森林区域开展的研究为基础,综述了氮沉降对植物光合作用、土壤呼吸、土壤DOM及林木生长的影响特征和机理,探讨了森林生态系统碳动态对氮沉降响应的不确定性因素。热带森林C、N循环与大部分温带森林不同,人为输入的氮对热带生态系统过程的影响也可能不同,因此指出了在热带地区开展碳氮循环耦合研究的必要性和紧迫性。     

陆地生态系统碳通量面临的挑战与机遇——基于涡度协方差测定

区域和全球涡度协方差网络提供了基于陆地-大气生态系统间最大的综合性原位碳通量观测数据集。这些数据目前已成为自下而上核算陆地生态系统碳平衡的基础,但部分测量数据合理性问题引起通量界广泛关注。通过梳理近40年研究进展,总结了涡度协方差测量原理,系统地分析了仪器局限性和环境因素潜在影响,讨论了不同碳通量组分填补存在的争议、生态系统冬季休眠期的净碳吸现象违背生理学知识、夜间湍流发展不充分对生态系统呼吸的低估等,并由此产生数据偏移和测量滞后时间等。通过阐述涡度协方差测量原理和数据处理存在的缺陷与争议,提出了适当的改进措施以限制(或降低)数据测量产生的不确定性,旨在为后续监测精度提升和探究陆地生态系统碳循环及其对环境因子的响应提供理论支撑。     

陆地生态系统地下碳输入与输出过程研究进展

生态系统地下碳输入与输出过程是陆地生态系统碳分配和转化的核心,并直接影响着全球碳循环。陆地生态系统凋落物、根系周转、根系分泌物、土壤有机碳、土壤微生物和土壤呼吸是地下碳输入与输出过程中的重要组成部分。由于这些组分非常复杂且其研究技术和方法受到限制,目前人们对陆地生态系统地下碳输入与输出过程尚缺乏全面的认识,故在陆地生态系统碳循环研究中存在诸多的不确定性。该文概述了凋落物、根系周转、根系分泌物、土壤有机碳、土壤微生物和土壤呼吸的研究方法,以及它们对气候变化的响应,探讨了陆地生态系统地下碳输入与输出过程中的研究难点,并对未来需要深入探究的一些领域进行了展望。     

陆地生态系统碳源与碳汇及其影响机制研究进展

全球碳循环研究中发现,目前已知碳源与碳汇不能达到平衡。存在一个很大的碳失汇。大气、海洋和陆地生态系统是人工源CO2的3个可能的容纳汇,其中陆地生态系统最复杂、最具不确定性,因此陆地生态系统碳源与碳汇研究是全球碳循环研究的核心问题之一。大气成分监测、CO2通量测定、森林资源清查以及模型模拟等方面的研究都表明,CO2施肥效应、氮沉降增加、污染、全球气候变化以及土地利用变化,是影响陆地生态系统碳储量的主要生态机制,但不确定在过去的10～100年以及未来哪一种机制起最主要的作用。     

陆地生态系统类型转变与碳循环

 土地利用变化引起的陆地生态系统类型转变对于全球碳循环有着极其重要的作用。　通过总结国内外有关森林砍伐以及森林、草地转变成农田对于碳循环的影响,阐述了可能引起全球“未知汇”现象的重要原因,强调未来中国陆地生态系统碳循环研究应充分重视陆地生态系统类型转变对于全球碳循环的影响研究,包括研究陆地生态系统的不同发展阶段(自然与退化生态系统)、利用方式的改变(森林转化为人工林或农田,草地转化为农田、退耕还林草等)所引起的碳库类型转换的增汇机理及其对全球变化响应,并指出了建立统一观测方法与规范的陆地生态系统碳通量观测网     

利用大气二氧化碳和羰基硫浓度评估陆地生态系统模型碳通量模拟的不确定性

生态系统模型是模拟全球陆地生态系统碳循环的重要工具,但是其在全球不同区域的模拟存在很大的不确定性。如何评估陆地生态系统模型的不确定性是一项重要的研究。以北美地区为例,利用8个高塔观测站点同步获取的大气CO_2和羰基硫(OCS)浓度数据,结合WRF-STILT大气粒子扩散模型,评估了CASA-GFED3、SiB3和SiBCASA三种陆地生态系统模型模拟总初级生产力(GPP)和净生态系统CO_2交换(NEE)通量的不确定性。结果表明,SiB3模型能很好地模拟北美陆地生态系统GPP和NEE的季节变化时相和幅度,在3种模型中具有最佳的模拟能力;CASA-GFED3模型模拟的NEE季节变化较为理想、但对生长季GPP的模拟存在较大的误差,SiBCASA模型在模拟冬季晚期和春季早期的NEE和GPP时表现较不理想。研究证明了大气CO_2和OCS在评估陆地生态系统模型碳通量模拟的不确定性中的作用,为利用大气CO_2和OCS观测数据优化计算陆地生态系统光合和呼吸碳通量提供了理论支撑。     

森林生态系统碳循环的基本概念和野外测定方法评述

全球气候变化与森林生态系统碳循环息息相关,定量评估森林碳收支是生态系统与全球变化研究的重要任务。30年来森林生态系统碳循环研究已经取得了长足的进展,但全球和区域森林碳收支仍然存在很大的不确定性。这一方面与森林生态系统本身的复杂性有关,另一方面也与具体研究方法有关。评述了森林生态系统碳循环的基本概念和主要野外测定方法,为我国森林生态系统碳循环研究提供可参考的方法论。从生态系统碳浓度、密度、通量、分配和周转5个方面回顾了碳循环相关概念,指出碳浓度和碳储量是对碳库的静态描述,而碳通量和碳周转是对碳库的动态描述。净初级生产力是测量最普遍的碳通量组分,但大多数情况下因忽略了一些细节而被系统低估。普遍使用的净生态系统生产力,由于没有包含非CO2形式的水文、气象和干扰过程产生的碳通量,通常情况下高于生态系统净碳累积速率。在详细介绍碳通量组分的基础上,改进了森林生态系统碳循环的概念模型。重点讨论了碳通量的3种地面实测方法:测树学方法、箱法和涡度协方差法,并指出了其注意事项和不确定性来源。针对当前碳循环研究的突出问题,建议从4个方面减小碳循环测定的不确定性:(1)恰当运用生物量方程估算乔木生物量;(2)尽可能全面测定生态系统碳组分;(3)给出碳通量估算值的不确定性;(4)多种途径交互验证。     

气候变暖对陆地生态系统碳循环的影响

作为全球变化的主要表现之一,气候变暖对全球陆地生态系统碳循环的影响巨大,揭示这一作用对于精确理解碳循环的过程和相关政策的制定具有重要的指导意义。该文综述了此领域近十几年来的主要研究工作,总结了陆地生态系统碳循环对气候变暖响应的主要内部机制及其过程,简述了相关模型的发展及其主要应用,并指出以往研究中存在的主要问题以及未来研究的主要方向。在气候变暖条件下,陆地生态系统碳循环的变化主要体现在以下几个方面:1)低纬度地区生态系统NPP一般表现为降低,而在中高纬度地区通常表现为增加,而在全球尺度上表现为NPP增加;2)土壤呼吸作用增强,但经过一段时间后表现出一定的适应性;3)高纬度地区的生态系统植被碳库表现为增加趋势,低纬度地区生态系统植被碳库变化不大,或略微降低,在全球尺度上表现为植被碳库增加;4)地表凋落物的产量和分解速率增加;5)土壤有机碳分解加速,进而减少土壤碳储存,同时植被碳库向土壤碳库的流动增加从而增加土壤碳库,这两种作用在不同生态系统的比重不同,在全球尺度上表现为土壤碳库的减少;6)尽管不同生态系统表现各异,总体上全球陆地生态系统表现为一个弱碳源。生物物理模型、生物地理模型和生物地球化学模型陆续被开发出来用于研究工作,并取得了一定的成果,但是研究结果仍然存在很大的不确定性。在未来的数年甚至是数十年间,气候变暖与全球变化的其它表现间的协同影响将是下一步的研究重点,气候变暖和陆地生态系统间的双向反馈作用机制是进行更准确研究的理论基础,生态系统结构和功能对气候变化的适应性是准确理解和预测未来气候情景下陆地生态系统碳循环的前提。     

土壤有机碳库的关键影响因素及其不确定性

土壤是陆地生态系统最大的有机碳库,比植被碳库或大气碳库的两倍还多。准确评估土壤有机碳库是预测全球变化与土壤有机碳之间反馈关系的关键。但目前对土壤有机碳库的估算还存在很大不确定性。该文综述了土壤有机碳库估算及其影响因素和土壤有机碳库估算不确定性的来源和常用的采样方法,以及计算土壤碳汇的最新研究进展。未来技术进步以及模型的不断完善可能会降低土壤有机碳库估算的不确定性,提高其估算的精度     

中国陆地生态系统碳源/汇整合分析

国家尺度陆地生态系统碳收支及其循环过程的研究对于提升地球系统科学与全球变化科学的科技创新能力、提高我国参与应对全球气候变化国际行动和维护国家利益的话语权、保障国家生态安全和改进生态系统管理都具有重要意义。近年来,我国已经在气候变化与陆地生态系统碳循环领域开展了大量的研究工作,主要包括国家清查、生态系统模型模拟、大气反演等手段。然而,由于大尺度陆地生态系统碳源/汇的估算存在很大的不确定性,目前尚未形成国家尺度的陆地生态系统碳源/汇的整合分析。通过搜集已发表的关于中国陆地生态系统及其组分碳源/汇的59篇文献,整合国家清查、生态系统模型模拟、大气反演3种研究手段,分析中国陆地生态系统碳源/汇大小以及时间尺度上的动态变化。结果表明,在1960s-2010s期间中国陆地生态系统碳汇整体呈上升趋势,平均为（0.213±0.030）Pg C/a,其中森林、草地、农田和灌木生态系统碳汇分别为（0.101±0.023）Pg C/a、（0.032±0.007）Pg C/a、（0.043±0.010）Pg C/a和（0.028±0.010）Pg C/a。森林生态系统中的植被碳汇远大于土壤碳汇,然而这种格局在草地和农田生态系统却相反,而且1960s-2010s期间中国主要植被类型的生态系统碳汇总体上随时间呈增加趋势。融合多源数据（地面观测、激光雷达、卫星遥感等）、多尺度数据（样地尺度、站点尺度、区域尺度）以及多手段数据（联网观测、森林清查、模型模拟）,有助于全面准确地评估中国陆地生态系统碳源/汇及其对气候变化的响应。     

Commentary: Carbon Metabolism of the Terrestrial Biosphere: A Multitechnique Approach for Improved Understanding

Understanding terrestrial carbon metabolism is critical because terrestrial ecosystems play a major role in the global carbon cycle. Furthermore, humans have severely disrupted the carbon cycle in ways that will alter the climate system and directly affect terrestrial metabolism. Changes in terrestrial metabolism may well be as important an indicator of global change as the changing temperature signal. Improving our understanding of the carbon cycle at various spatial and temporal scales will require the integration of multiple, complementary and independent methods that are used by different research communities. Tools such as air sampling networks, inverse numerical methods, and satellite data (top-down approaches) allow us to study the strength and location of the global- and continental-scale carbon sources and sinks. Bottom-up studies provide estimates of carbon fluxes at finer spatial scales and examine the mechanisms that control fluxes at the ecosystem, landscape, and regional scales. Bottom-up approaches include comparative and process studies (for example, ecosystem manipulative experiments) that provide the necessary mechanistic information to develop and validate terrestrial biospheric models. An iteration and reiteration of top-down and bottom-up approaches will be necessary to help constrain measurements at various scales. We propose a major international effort to coordinate and lead research programs of global scope of the carbon cycle. Received 7 May 1999; accepted 28 September 1999.     

Critical land change information enhances the understanding of carbon balance in the United States

Large‐scale terrestrial carbon (C) estimating studies using methods such as atmospheric inversion, biogeochemical modeling, and field inventories have produced different results. The goal of this study was to integrate fine‐scale processes including land use and land cover change into a large‐scale ecosystem framework. We analyzed the terrestrial C budget of the conterminous United States from 1971 to 2015 at 1‐km resolution using an enhanced dynamic global vegetation model and comprehensive land cover change data. Effects of atmospheric CO₂ fertilization, nitrogen deposition, climate, wildland fire, harvest, and land use/land cover change (LUCC) were considered. We estimate annual C losses from cropland harvest, forest clearcut and thinning, fire, and LUCC were 436.8, 117.9, 10.5, and 10.4 TgC/year, respectively. C stored in ecosystems increased from 119,494 to 127,157 TgC between 1971 and 2015, indicating a mean annual net C sink of 170.3 TgC/year. Although ecosystem net primary production increased by approximately 12.3 TgC/year, most of it was offset by increased C loss from harvest and natural disturbance and increased ecosystem respiration related to forest aging. As a result, the strength of the overall ecosystem C sink did not increase over time. Our modeled results indicate the conterminous US C sink was about 30% smaller than previous modeling studies, but converged more closely with inventory data.     

土地利用变化对土壤有机碳的影响研究进展

土壤有机碳是陆地碳库的重要组成部分,也是当前全球碳循环和全球变化研究的热点。土地利用/覆被变化及土地管理变化通过影响土壤有机碳的储量和分布,进而影响温室气体排放和陆地生态系统的碳通量。研究土地利用变化影响下的土壤有机碳储量及其动态变化规律,有助于加深理解全球气候变化与土地利用变化之间的关系。在阅读国内外有关文献的基础上,分别从土地利用及其管理方式变化的角度,概括了土地利用变化对土壤有机碳的影响过程与机理;针对当前研究的两大类方法,即实验方法和模型方法,分类详细介绍了它们各自的特点以及存在的一些问题。在此基础上,提出今后土地利用变化对土壤有机碳影响研究的发展趋势。     

区域尺度陆地生态系统碳收支及其循环过程研究进展

地球系统的碳库和碳循环过程变化是影响气候系统的重要因素,而陆地生态系统的碳收支及其循环过程机制研究一直是全球气候变化成因分析、变化趋势预测、减缓和适应对策分析领域的科学研究热点。回顾了过去几十年区域尺度陆地生态系统碳循环和碳收支研究领域的国际前沿及其关键科学问题,并分析了我国在该研究领域的科技需求和发展方向。当前国际科学研究的热点和前沿领域主要包括:生态系统和区域碳储量和碳收支的清查、综合计量与碳汇认证,陆地生态系统碳通量的联网观测及其循环过程机制,陆地生态系统碳循环过程对气候变化响应野外控制试验,陆地生态系统水、碳、氮循环及其耦合关系机制和模拟模型研究等,同时指出在这些研究领域依然存在且急需解决的关键科学问题。我国近期的科技工作重点工作应该是努力构建天-地-空一体化的碳储量和碳收支动态监测体系、开展生态系统碳-氮-水耦合循环及其区域调控管理的前瞻性研究,定量评价中国生态系统的碳收支状况和增汇潜力,评估各种典型生态系统增汇技术的经济效益,为国家尺度的温室气体管理和碳交易机制与政策体系的建立提供可报告、可度量和可核查的科学数据和技术支持。     

Terrestrial carbon sinks in China and around the world and their contribution to carbon neutrality

Enhancing the terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink (referred to as terrestrial C sink) is an important way to slow down the continuous increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and to achieve carbon neutrality target. To better understand the characteristics of terrestrial C sinks and their contribution to carbon neutrality, this review summarizes major progress in terrestrial C budget researches during the past decades, clarifies spatial patterns and drivers of terrestrial C sources and sinks in China and around the world, and examines the role of terrestrial C sinks in achieving carbon neutrality target. According to recent studies, the global terrestrial C sink has been increasing from a source of (?0.2±0.9) Pg C yr^?1 (1 Pg=10¹⁵ g) in the 1960s to a sink of (1.9±1.1) Pg C yr^?1 in the 2010s. By synthesizing the published data, we estimate terrestrial C sink of 0.20–0.25 Pg C yr^?1 in China during the past decades, and predict it to be 0.15–0.52 Pg C yr^?1 by 2060. The terrestrial C sinks are mainly located in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, while tropical regions act as a weak C sink or source. The C balance differs much among ecosystem types: forest is the major C sink; shrubland, wetland and farmland soil act as C sinks; and whether the grassland functions as C sink or source remains unclear. Desert might be a C sink, but the magnitude and the associated mechanisms are still controversial. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration, nitrogen deposition, climate change, and land cover change are the main drivers of terrestrial C sinks, while other factors such as fires and aerosols would also affect ecosystem C balance. The driving factors of terrestrial C sink differ among regions. Elevated CO₂ concentration and climate change are major drivers of the C sinks in North America and Europe, while afforestation and ecological restoration are additionally important forcing factors of terrestrial C sinks in China. For future studies, we recommend the necessity for intensive and long term ecosystem C monitoring over broad geographic scale to improve terrestrial biosphere models for accurately evaluating terrestrial C budget and its dynamics under various climate change and policy scenarios.

     

How uncertainties in future climate change predictions translate into future terrestrial carbon fluxes

We forced a global terrestrial carbon cycle model by climate fields of 14 ocean and atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs) to simulate the response of terrestrial carbon pools and fluxes to climate change over the next century. These models participated in the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2), where a 1% per year increase of atmospheric CO₂ was prescribed. We obtain a reduction in net land uptake because of climate change ranging between 1.4 and 5.7 Gt C yr^?1 at the time of atmospheric CO₂ doubling. Such a reduction in terrestrial carbon sinks is largely dominated by the response of tropical ecosystems, where soil water stress occurs. The uncertainty in the simulated land carbon cycle response is the consequence of discrepancies in land temperature and precipitation changes simulated by the OAGCMs. We use a statistical approach to assess the coherence of the land carbon fluxes response to climate change. The biospheric carbon fluxes and pools changes have a coherent response in the tropics, in the Mediterranean region and in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This is because of a good coherence of soil water content change in the first two regions and of temperature change in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Then we evaluate the carbon uptake uncertainties to the assumptions on plant productivity sensitivity to atmospheric CO₂ and on decomposition rate sensitivity to temperature. We show that these uncertainties are on the same order of magnitude than the uncertainty because of climate change. Finally, we find that the OAGCMs having the largest climate sensitivities to CO₂ are the ones with the largest soil drying in the tropics, and therefore with the largest reduction of carbon uptake.     

Why are estimates of the terrestrial carbon balance so different?

The carbon balance of the world's terrestrial ecosystems is uncertain. Both top‐down (atmospheric) and bottom‐up (forest inventory and land‐use change) approaches have been used to calculate the sign and magnitude of a net terrestrial flux. Different methods often include different processes, however, and comparisons can be misleading. Differences are not necessarily the result of uncertainties or errors, but often result from incomplete accounting inherent in some of the methods. Recent estimates are reviewed here. Overall, a northern mid‐latitude carbon sink of approximately 2 Pg C yr^?1 appears robust, although the mechanisms responsible are uncertain. Several lines of evidence point to environmentally enhanced rates of carbon accumulation. Other lines suggest that recovery from past disturbances is largely responsible for the sink. The tropics appear to be a small net source of carbon or nearly neutral, and the same uncertainties of mechanism exist. In addition, studies in the tropics do not permit an unequivocal choice between two alternatives: large emissions of carbon from deforestation offset by large sinks in undisturbed forests, or moderate emissions from land‐use change with essentially no change in the carbon balance in undisturbed forests. Resolution of these uncertainties is most likely to result from spatially detailed historical reconstructions of land‐use change and disturbance in selected northern mid‐latitude regions where such data are available, and from systematic monitoring of changes in the area of tropical forests with satellite data of high spatial resolution collected over the last decades and into the future.