1990～1999年安徽省生态足迹的动态测度与分析

运用生态足迹方法,对安徽省1990~1999年的生态足迹进行了时间序列的测度,将安徽省资源利用的动态特征融入到生态足迹模型中,在此基础上进行横向和纵向比较。结果表明,1999年安徽省生态足迹在省和国家尺度上都处于不可持续发展状态,而在全球尺度上处于可持续发展状态;1990~1999年,安徽省的人均生态足迹和人均GDP持续增长,万元GDP的生态足迹一直呈现下降趋势。总体上,安徽省1990~1999年的可持续发展状况不容乐观,并在此基础上提出安徽省未来可持续发展的可选途径。     

福建省生态足迹和生态承载力的动态变化

利用生态足迹理论,计算分析了福建省1999～2003年5年间的生态足迹变化过程.结果表明,福建省人均生态足迹由1999年的1.428 hm²上升至2003年的1.658 hm²,人均生态承载力由1999年的0.683 hm²减少到2003年的0.607 hm²,生态赤字逐年提高,生态足迹与生态承载力之间的矛盾加剧,生态环境处于不安全状态.生态足迹供需结构分析表明,福建省人均生态足迹供需存在严重的不平衡,其需求以草地和化石燃料为主,两者占总量的55.74%～63.43%,而供给以耕地为主,草地仅占人均生态承载力的0.77%～0.82%,化石燃料的供给几乎为零.5年间万元GDP生态足迹总体上呈下降趋势,表明福建省的资源利用率不断提高.与此同时,结合福建省经济发展现状和资源分布特点,提出了减少区域生态赤字的对策.     

Analysis of over-consumption of natural resources and the ecological trade deficit in China based on ecological footprints

China has experienced unprecedented economic development in recent years and is now facing severe challenges caused by the over-consumption of resources and by ecological and environmental degradation. To assess the influence of resource exploitation and ecological trade, we have developed an index of excessive resource consumption based on the concepts of ecological deficit and ecological over-shoot, and we have used the ecological trade deficit to assess the pressure created by the export and import of resources and products. Our analysis indicated that China's consumption footprint surpassed its biocapacity in 1983, leading to an ecological deficit, and the production footprint surpassed its biocapacity in 1986, leading to an ecological over-shoot, as the over-consumption of natural resources grew. By 2010, 3.6 times the current area of bioproductive land was needed to provide sufficient resources to meet the consumption. China has been encouraging the development of exporting enterprises by implementing a series of financial and tax incentives, which have stimulated the economy in the short-term but have gradually increased the ecological trade deficit since 2000.     

重庆市生态足迹与生态承载量研究

以重庆市2001年统计数据为基础,对重庆市2001年生态足迹计算结果表明,该地区人均生态足迹为1.65366 hm²,人均生态承载力为0.280393 hm²,人均生态赤字为1.373173 hm²,与全国平均水平相比,人均生态足迹高0.5335 hm²(增加47.64%),人均生态承载力低0.5196 hm²(下降64.95%),生态赤字是全国平均赤字的3.43倍,表明该地区生态足迹超过了当地生态承载能力,区域经济社会发展处于一种不可持续的发展状态.另外,还分析论述了多种渠道解决生态系统超负荷人口、增加科技财政投入、控制环境污染等减少该地区生态足迹的对策.     

江苏省区域农业生态经济的时空变异分析

以江苏省徐连、沿海、宁镇扬、沿江和太湖5个经济区及其9个代表县市区域为研究对象,基于"社会-生态-经济"的系统分析,建立了包括目标层、准则层和指标层3个层次多指标的农业生态经济综合评价指标体系,采用主成分分析方法对评价指标体系进行检验、筛选,并以江苏省为案例,综合分析了农业生态经济系统的时空变异特征。结果表明:江苏省农业生态经济发展水平的时空变异明显,空间上,徐连、沿海、宁镇扬、沿江和太湖5个经济区表现出由北向南逐渐上升的趋势,且随时间的推移逐渐上升;时间上,徐连和太湖经济区农业生态经济发展水平在1999—2008年间呈持续上升,处于良好或优质协调状态。虽然两经济区的农业生态环境-经济发展协调发展水平均较高,但差距较大,徐连和太湖经济区的农业生态环境-经济发展协调度从1999年到2008年呈逐渐下降趋势,但总体上仍处于良好或优质协调状态。     

山东省生态空间占用的初步研究

根据生态空间占用理论与方法,判定了山东省目前的生态空间占用和生态容量,进行了生态空间核算并计算了生态赤字.研究表明,山东省2001年的人均生态空间占用为1.37720hm².人均生态容量为0.58755hm²,生态赤字达0.78965hm²,表明该省对生态生产性土地的需求已严重超出其供给能力,其经济发展过程中的生态状况不容乐观.山东人均生态占用虽明显高于本省人均生态容量,但仍低于全球人均生态容量,属于“地方不可持续-全球可持续”的地区.文末指出重化工业在工业结构中的突出地位及以煤炭为主的能源消费结构是导致该省生态占用偏高的主要原因,另外,人口众多使本省人均生态容量偏小,从而导致生态赤字偏大.为使山东社会经济持续健康发展,优化工业结构和能源消费结构,控制人口数量,建立资源节约型的社会生产和消费体系势在必行.     

21世纪以来陕西生态足迹和承载力变化

采用修正后的生态足迹模型测算了2000—2012年陕西省生态足迹和生态承载力。修正的工作主要体现在增加了包括废气、废水和固体废弃物科目的污染排放账户,确定了同全球平均产量表科目有差异、但能体现陕西地域特点的板栗、核桃、禽蛋、蚕茧、花椒、棕片及生漆7个科目的全球平均产量,并且测算了对应的生态足迹。结果显示,21世纪以来陕西省人均生态足迹从1.300 hm~2/人增加到3.077 hm~2/人,人均生态赤字由0.374 hm~2/人增加到2.176 hm~2/人,人均生态承载力从0.926 hm~2/人减少到0.901 hm~2/人。这些数据表明陕西已处于生态超载的状态,且有逐步加剧的趋势。万元GDP生态足迹由2.626 hm~2/万元减少到0.799 hm~2/万元,表明全省资源利用率正逐步提高,经济发展能力持续向好。这一观点从发展能力指数由3.191增加到6.842也可得到验证。陕西省生态足迹值的上升和生态承载力的下降导致了生态赤字的增加。究其原因,第一,陕北能源重化工产业的发展对煤、石油等矿物能源消耗加速;第二,关中城市群中城镇人口聚集、工业企业发展等带来的污染排放增速过快;第三,陕南矿物资源开采伴生的生态环境破坏加剧。为此,陕西省应把生态承载力作为推进新型城镇化、承接产业转移和规范产业发展的重要依据,严格控制省内地级市以上主城区人口数量,提高县城和重点镇的人口城市化率,把重点镇建设和避灾扶贫移民有机结合起来,建立能源重化工、矿物开采等行业门槛,执行节能减排目标机制。     

中国2002年省域生态足迹分析

采用中国实际单产法计算和分析了2002年中国各省市生态足迹及其构成,发现各省市生态足迹及其构成差异较大,其中人均耕地足迹由陕西的0.078 hm²增加到北京的0.126 hm²,人均草地足迹由江西的0.020 hm²增加到西藏的0.372 hm²,人均林地足迹由贵州的0.020 hm²增加到北京的0.209 hm²,人均水域足迹由西藏的0.001 hm²增加到上海的0.011 hm²,人均建筑用地足迹由贵州的0.013 hm²增加到内蒙古的0.054 hm²,人均化石能源足迹由广西的0.251 hm²增加到山西的2.854 hm².东部、南部省市各地类多处于生态赤字状态,北部、西部省市各地类多处于生态盈余状态.从生态足迹、人均GDP和万元GDP足迹的相互关系来看,各地区存在较大的差异,如人均生态足迹为1 hm²·cap^-1的省份包括福建、河南、四川、安徽、云南、陕西和贵州,其人均GDP由福建的1.35万元降至贵州的0.3万元,而万元GDP足迹却由福建的0.74 hm²增至贵州的3.51hm².因此,要缓解中国资源短缺与经济发展之间的矛盾,要首先从人均生态足迹大、经济发展落后、万元GDP足迹高的省市入手,改变其经济增长方式和产业结构,使经济的发展对资源的依赖性逐渐降低,提高资源利用效率,提高其足迹经济产出率,大力发展经济,实现生态、资源、经济的可持续发展.     

新疆生态足迹与环境压力的时空分异

提高生态现代化总体水平是改善区域生态环境承载力的核心和关键。利用生态环境质量指数和生态现代化指数(EM I)对我国西部生态环境脆弱区的新疆维吾尔自治区生态足迹和环境压力的变动态势进行了系统分析。结果表明:2004年新疆生态现代化指数在全国排名为27位,仍然为我国生态现代化水平落后的地区之一。1980—2005年,新疆综合现代化水平远低于高收入国家、世界平均水平和中等发达国家。1998年新疆人均生态足迹由25957hm2增加到2007年的40551hm2,人均生态承载力由3.1270hm2减少到2.8266 hm2。区域环境水平呈下降趋势。资源转化率、生态保护指数呈明显上升态势。环境治理指数呈剧烈变动,1996-2003年呈"N"型变动态势,区域生态脆弱性没有明显逆转。     

中国人均灰水生态足迹变化驱动效应测度及时空分异

将传统灰水足迹和水生态足迹方法相结合,运用扩展的Kaya恒等式和LMDI指数分解方法对中国各省市的人均灰水生态足迹变化的驱动因素进行测度分析,充分考虑了资本和劳动力因素,选取经济活度效应,资本深化效应,资本效率效应,足迹强度效应,环境效率效应5个效应对人均灰水生态足迹变化的影响,结合ISODATA聚类模型对各效应进行空间聚类,从而分析各效应的空间特征。结果显示:中国人均灰水生态足迹产出变化是这5种因素共同作用的结果,资本深化效应和经济活度效应具有增量效应特点,而环境效率效应、足迹强度效应、资本效率效应呈减量效应特点;在各驱动效应的的强弱对比中,资本深化效应和足迹强度效应的特征较为明显。经济发展带动了科技进步也使得用水效率不断提高是足迹强度效应呈减量效应的主要原因;而工业化阶段经济向资本密集型转变是资本效率下降的主要原因。研究对中国灰水生态变化与资本要素之间的关系进行了探讨,对环保政策的调整及水资源可持续利用研究具有一定的参考价值。     

广西北部湾地区生态足迹动态分析

生态足迹方法为定量计算地区可持续性发展提供了一种简单易行的方法。论文将在传统生态足迹方法的基础上结合目前国外最新生态足迹动态分析方法对广西北部湾地区从1998年到2005年的生态足迹进行了计算。结果表明:结合万元GDP占用生态足迹、生态足迹多样性指数和经济系统发展能力指数等指标的生态足迹动态分析方法,加强了传统生态足迹方法对地区可持续发展状况的反应。1998～2005年期间,广西北部湾地区,土地生产效率不断提高,经济发展能力在逐步增强,但是人均生态足迹呈逐年增加趋势,出现生态赤字,处于不可持续发展状态,仅林地资源与建筑用地资源还有少量人均盈余。     

Local ecological footprint using Principal Component Analysis: A case study of localities in Andalusia (Spain)

The quantity and quality of available information is one of the major constraints for the calculation of the ecological footprint, particularly for sub-national or sub-regional territorial levels. At the national or even regional level, the information that allows for computing the ecological footprint is generally available. However, when trying to calculate the footprint for lower-level territorial realities (e.g., cities or municipalities), this information is insufficient or non-existent. In this article, we propose an indirect method for calculating the ecological footprint of such territorial spaces through Principal Component Analysis. The case study utilises the ecological footprint of Andalusia (a Spanish region) as a starting point for footprint assignment to each of the 771 municipalities included in the Andalusian region. A set of variables related to the consumption levels in these municipalities has been utilised and is expressed in physical units. These variables make it possible to obtain a weighting factor to determine the ecological footprint of each municipality. This procedure also makes it possible to identify which variables or indicators have the greatest impact on the ecological footprint for a given territory. According to the results, the method also shows how inappropriate it is to consider the population as a way to distribute the ecological footprint; there are relevant differences between the weight of the population in municipalities and their generated footprint. There are also significant differences between the magnitude of economic indicators, such as GDP, and the estimated ecological footprint; for municipalities with higher income levels, the ecological impact is more than proportional to the weight of the monetary indicators.     

张家口市坝上地区生态足迹初步研究

1　引　　言张家口市坝上地区是我国重要的农牧交错区 .长期以来在农牧交错区 ,由于人类对自然资源的强度利用 ,已经超过了生态系统的承载力 ,生态退化非常严重 .定量地计算农牧交错区生态系统承载力 ,确定其阈值 ,是生态保护和建设急需解决的问题 .加拿大生态经济学家ＷｉｌｌｉａｎＲｅｅｓ等提出的生态足迹的概念以及生态足迹、生态承载力的计算方法[2～ 4 ] ,为这一问题的解决 ,指出了简洁的思路和方法 .国内已介绍和进行区域研究[1,5,6 ] .本文应用该方法 ,以张家口市坝上地区为例 ,研究了农牧交错区的生态承载力阈值和人口容限值 ,提…     

基于传统生态足迹方法和能值生态足迹方法的黑龙江省可持续发展状态比较

运用传统生态足迹方法及其改进方法——能值生态足迹方法,对2005年黑龙江省可持续发展状态进行了分析.结果表明：2005年,采用能值生态足迹方法和传统生态足迹方法计算的黑龙江省生态赤字分别为1.919和0.6256 hm²·cap^-1.2种方法得到的研究区生态足迹均超过生态承载力,表明该区域经济社会发展处于一种不可持续的发展状态.能值生态足迹方法从能量角度探讨了人类物质需求与生态系统资源供应的关系,并采用能值转换率、能值密度等更加稳定的参数进行计算,一定程度上克服了传统生态足迹方法的缺陷.     

北京市水果消费的生态足迹距离研究

采用生态足迹距离指标方法体系,对2009年至2012年间北京市水果消费的生态足迹距离进行研究。结果表明4年间:跨区转移的生态承载力质量距离,由2009年的11.5×10~8t km逐年增加到了2012年的17.01×10~8t km,共增加了47.91%;生态足迹距离则相对稳定在886.66 km至1073.55 km之间;人均生态足迹距离,总体上由2009年的4.39×10~4km增加到2012年的5.55×104km,共增加了26.42%。从类别的视角,年均生态足迹距离最大的是香蕉(2072 km),最小的是苹果(476 km);年均跨区转移的生物承载力质量距离,最大的是西瓜(4978×10~8kg km),最小的是香蕉(518×10~8kg km);而4年平均人均生态足迹距离,最大的是西瓜(17.7×10~4km),最小的是香蕉(1.92×10~4km)。快速城市化阶段的北京,对外生态依赖范围也迅速扩大,并高于人口增加的速率。     

Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis by utilizing the ecological footprint as an indicator of environmental degradation

This study investigates the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis using a country’s ecological footprint as an indicator of environmental degradation. Ninety-three countries were examined, categorized by income. The fixed effects and the generalized method of moments results clearly showed an inverted U-shaped relationship between the ecological footprint and GDP growth, which represents the EKC hypothesis in upper middle- and high-income countries but not in low- and lower middle-income countries. This relationship only occurs in a stage of economic development in which technologies are available that improve energy efficiency, energy saving and renewable energy, which are not accessible for countries with low income due to their high cost. Moreover, energy consumption, urbanization, and trade openness increase environmental damage through their positive effect on the ecological footprint of most countries across all income groups. However, financial development reduces environmental degradation in lower middle-, upper middle- and high-income countries. This relationship confirms that loans from banks are primarily given to firms that establish investments in projects that are mostly environmentally friendly. From the results of this study, a number of recommendations can be provided for the investigated countries.     

Study on the long-term and short-term effects of globalization and population aging on ecological footprint in OECD countries

Population aging has become a global phenomenon. Whereas, the ecological consequences of population aging are rarely addressed in current research. In this context, this study contributes to the existing literature by providing new empirical evidence on how population aging along with globalization, economic growth, energy consumption, natural resource rent, and human capital affect ecological footprint for selected 27 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries during 1970–2017. This study utilizes an advanced econometric approach, Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator for empirical estimation, that allows heterogeneity in the slope parameters and dependencies across countries. The long-term results disclose that globalization (overall) decreases the ecological footprint. On the other hand, financial and political globalization poses a favorable impact on environmental quality, while economic and social globalization is found to increase environmental degradation. Population aging has a statistically significant negative effect on the ecological footprint, but its non-linear term increases the ecological footprint. Additionally, economic growth, energy consumption, and natural resource rent exacerbate environmental deterioration. In contrast, human capital decreases ecological footprint. Based on the empirical results, important policy implications have been provided.     

The historical ecological footprint: From over-population to over-consumption

The ecological risk from over-population has been recognized since Malthus (1798). GDP growth per capita in agriculture disproved his pessimism but, since the Club of Rome and its case on Limits to Growth more recently there has been concern that there is a parallel risk from such growth in terms of ecological footprints (EF). Authors have developed a GDP/EF correlation function and calculated the ecological footprint (EF) from 10,000 B.C. till 1960, using historical statistics, with the method of backcasting (Brandes and Brooks, 2005).¹ In all major indicators growth patterns have been dominating, not only since the industrial revolution, but in the known history of mankind. From data since 1961, we calculate the correlation between GDP and the ecological footprint and have been able to determine long time data series of population, GDP, biocapacity and EF. Our findings are first: the main driver of growth and environmental degradation is not population per se, but consumption patterns and levels multiplied by the number of consumers, especially in developed economies, as the I = PAT equation recognized (Ehrlich and Holdren, 1971). In fact, as we approach to today, population, which used to be the key driver to growth and environmental degradation, becomes the least important driver, especially in the last two decades. Second: change is not incremental or linear as assumed in much mainstream economics: in line with Schumpeter's bunching and swarming and it jumps and leaps asymmetrically, as in our finding of such a leap (the 7th) between the 1930s and 1970s. Third: the dominant paradigm legitimizing growth (from the late 18th century) while already challenged by many since the Club of Rome and other reports should be revisited in terms of the concept of ‘fullness’ in the sense that while the earth in 1776 was roughly 10 per cent full, by 2008 this figure was over 150 per cent.     

Estimating the environmental Kuznets curve for ecological footprint at the global level: A spatial econometric approach

The national ecological footprint of both consumption and production are significantly spatially autocorrelated at global level. This violates the assumption of independently distributed errors of most conventional estimation techniques. Using a spatial econometric approach, this paper re-examine the relationship between economic growth and environmental impact for indicator of ecological footprint. The results do not show evidence of inverted U-shape Environmental Kuznets Curve. The domestic ecological footprint of consumption (or production) was obviously influenced by the ecological footprint of consumption (or production), income and biocapacity in neighborhood countries. We also found that the consumption footprint is more sensitive to domestic income, while production footprint is more sensitive to domestic biocapacity, which is often unnoticed in EKC hypothesis analyses that focus exclusively on the consumption-based or production-based indictors.     

三江源区生态承载力与生态安全评价及限制因素分析

三江源区作为国家生态安全“两屏三带”战略格局的重要组成,其生态安全状况对全国乃至东南亚地区都有重要影响。本文以遥感参数反演和模型计算数据,结合实地调查和社会经济统计等数据,采用层次分析法和指标体系法,对三江源区生态承载力和生态安全状况进行了评价,并根据短板效应分析了限制三江源区生态承载力和生态安全的因素。结果表明：（1）三江源区生态承载力处于中等水平,空间上呈现出由东南向西北逐渐减少的格局;（2）限制三江源区生态承载力的因素主要是水源涵养量、初级生产力、地表水水质、植被覆盖度以及受威胁动物数量等;（3）三江源区生态安全状况基本处于濒危到较安全之间;（4）三江源区西部欠发达地区生态承载力水平较低,相对落后的经济水平限制了环境保护的力度和水平;而东部较发达地区,人口增长快但文化素质不足,难以满足社会经济快 速发展与生态安全保护的双重需求。