应用马尔可夫链模型预测长爪沙鼠和黑线仓鼠种群数量

依据1984～2004年21年在呼和浩特郊区对长爪沙鼠(Meriones unguiculatus)和黑线仓鼠(Cricetulus barabansis)种群数量动态的调查数据,结合优选法(0.618法),应用加权马尔可夫链预测模型,建立了长爪沙鼠和黑线仓鼠种群数量预测模型。应用此模型分别预测了长爪沙鼠和黑线仓鼠2004年的种群数量,预测值与实测值相符,预测准确。同时,预测了未来三年(2005～2007年)长爪沙鼠和黑线仓鼠的种群数量。结果表明,此方法计算简便、准确、可靠,为鼠类种群数量的预测提供了新的方法。     

长爪沙鼠的一些生态学资料

长爪沙鼠(Meriones unguiculatus)是荒漠草原分布较广的害鼠。夏武平(1982)、赵肯堂(1960)等对长爪沙鼠的某些生态方面进行了研究。作者从1979年5月至1980年6月在宁夏陶乐县对长爪沙鼠的数量季节变动、迁徒、繁殖、年龄组成、食性等方面进行了调查研究,现报告于后。     

EP-1 不育剂对长爪沙鼠野生种群增长的控制作用

长爪沙鼠在内蒙古地区的分布非常广泛,长期以来由其造成的“鼠害” 不仅给农牧业生产带来危害,而且还传播疾病。2009 年3 ～ 10 月,在内蒙古鄂尔多斯荒漠草原,利用复合不育剂左炔诺孕酮- 炔雌醚(EP-1)
对长爪沙鼠野生种群进行了不育控制试验研究。结果表明,复合不育剂EP-1 对长爪沙鼠种群结构和种群密度均有显著影响,在5 月和6 月两个繁殖高峰期,不育剂EP-1 显著降低了幼体出生的数量,实验区与对照区幼体组
成差异和成体组成差异均达到极显著(P < 0.01)。在8 ～ 10 月,实验区和对照区种群结构组成中,幼体之间、成体之间差异均达到显著和极显著(P < 0.05, P < 0.01)。在整个发育生长期,实验区长爪沙鼠幼体种群从6 月
份开始出现,9 月达到数量最高值,幼体种群全年呈现下降趋势。而对照区幼体种群从5 月份开始出现,且数量在5 月份达到全年的最高值,幼体种群与实验区相反呈增长趋势。实验区种群总体数量全年呈下降趋势,而对
照区相反,呈增长趋势。因此,复合不育剂EP-1 显著降低了长爪沙鼠种群的繁殖率、幼体出生比例和种群密度,可以对长爪沙鼠野生种群起到有效的繁殖控制作用,进而降低该鼠对农牧业生产的危害和对人类疾病传播
的风险。     

炔雌醚对内蒙古农牧交错带长爪沙鼠(Meriones unguiculatus)家群大小和巢域行为的影响

为检验施用炔雌醚对农牧交错带长爪沙鼠家群大小与巢域行为的影响,于2006年5月至9月对内蒙古锡林郭勒盟锡林浩特市农牧交错区域分布的长爪沙鼠家群使用炔雌醚进行种群不育控制实验。分设投药区和对照区两个组别,分别于5月、7月与9月份采用1/4样圆面积有效洞口计数法,随机选取24个长爪沙鼠家群,调查对照区域和投药区内沙鼠的家群洞口数量以及家群大小。另在对照区和投药区,随机测定了30个沙鼠的家群活动范围,对比使用炔雌醚前后长爪沙鼠巢域平均半径和活动面积的影响。结果为:对照区家群平均洞口数58个,投药区仅23个,在炔雌醚投药区长爪沙鼠家群受炔雌醚影响,洞口数仅为23个,表明其对长爪沙鼠家群大小控制效果显著。投药区内长爪沙鼠家群密度在投药后连续下降,最大下降幅度较对照区家群密度低70%,表明炔雌醚对长爪沙鼠的家群密度影响较大,可显著降低长爪沙鼠家群密度(P<0.05)。炔雌醚对长爪沙鼠家群平均半径和活动面积的研究结果显示,施用炔雌醚后家群巢域半径与活动面积均显著缩小(P<0.05),与对照区巢域平均面积相比缩小15%、平均活动半径缩小30%。通过以上结果可得出:单独施用炔雌醚对控制野外长爪沙鼠家群以及降低长爪沙鼠巢域、活动面积效果显著。炔雌醚可有效降低农牧交错带长爪沙鼠种群数量和有效活动范围,这对于农牧交错带的鼠害防控,同时降低鼠源性疾病,包括鼠疫的传播都有一定的意义。     

炔雌醚对长爪沙鼠种群数量和性比的影响

炔雌醚是一种激素类新型鼠类不育剂,已有研究表明,炔雌醚对某些鼠类种群繁殖具有良好的控制成效。为检验新型不育剂对长爪沙鼠种群的控制效果,2006年5月在内蒙古锡林郭勒盟锡林浩特市农牧交错带开展了炔雌醚对野外长爪沙鼠种群的控制实验,本次实验设投药区和对照区2个组别,5—8月开展逐月的夹线调查以及四分之一圆洞口计数法,对样地内长爪沙鼠进行系统的追踪调查,分析炔雌醚对长爪沙鼠种群数量以及种群性比的作用。结果显示:投药1个月之后,投药区雌鼠比例(16.3%)不及对照组雌鼠比例(51.9%)的三分之一,投药区的雌鼠比例(16.3%)仅为雄鼠比例(83.7%)的五分之一;与对照区相比,投药区长爪沙鼠的密度下降达60%以上。这表明:炔雌醚对野外长爪沙鼠种群的不育控制具有良好效果,且炔雌醚对长爪沙鼠的种群性比影响很大,过量投放炔雌醚可造成雌鼠死亡,单独使用炔雌醚可降低野外不育剂的药物成本。     

田野小家鼠种群特征研究

近年,关于种群特征的研究,当首推夏武平等(1982)对长爪沙鼠的种群动态及其调节的研究,国内对种群特征间关系的进一步探研尚不多见,而该工作对动物种群动态的预测是至关重要的。 小家鼠(Mus musculus L.)的种群特征包括诸多方面,如性比、年龄结构、胎仔数、怀孕率和身体大小等,它们的变化均与一定的种群数量相联系,今在过去工作的基础上作一些新的探求。     

荒漠破碎化生境中长爪沙鼠集合种群野外验证研究

近年来,人类活动和自然干扰,导致内蒙古阿拉善荒漠区生境的破碎化,出现了长爪沙鼠在不同斑块间的不连续分布,每一斑块内可能存在一个局域种群,而集合种群建立的前提条件,是局域种群斑块状分布在离散的栖息地环境中。2002~2012年每年的4~10月,在阿拉善荒漠区禁牧、轮牧、过牧和开垦4种人为不同利用方式形成的生境斑块中,采用标志重捕法对长爪沙鼠（Meriones unguiculatus）种群进行定点监测。通过分析长爪沙鼠种群动态,计算各局域种群的灭绝风险,利用Spearman秩相关系数检验种群动态的空间同步性,同时以种群周转率对长爪沙鼠扩散能力进行评估,以检验阿拉善荒漠区长爪沙鼠种群空间结构是否具有经典集合种群的功能。结果表明：（1） 不同生境斑块可被长爪沙鼠局域种群占据,11年间捕获长爪沙鼠2~7次不等;（2） 长爪沙鼠所有局域种群均具有灭绝风险,在轮牧区和禁牧区灭绝率高达1.000 0,开垦区灭绝率最低,也达到0.333 4,而本研究期间最大局域种群（2008年过牧区,26只/hm²）,在2010年发生了局域灭绝;（3） 不同生境斑块间没有明显的空间隔离而阻碍局域种群的重新建立,长爪沙鼠扩散能力较强,绝大部分月份的种群周转率在50.0%以上,特别是周转率达到100.0%的月份较多;（4） 不同生境斑块间仅轮牧区和禁牧区中长爪沙鼠种群密度显著正相关（P<0.05）,而其他生境斑块间相关性均不显著（P >0.05）,长爪沙鼠局域种群整体显示出明显的非同步空间动态。阿拉善荒漠区长爪沙鼠种群满足作为经典集合种群物种区域续存的4个条件,具有作为研究小哺乳动物集合种群的潜在价值。     

大鵟对长爪沙鼠秋季的集群捕食策略

2003年9月10日—15日,在内蒙古东乌珠穆沁旗嘎达布其口岸附近的典型草原区鼠害草场研究了大鵟(Buteo hemilasius)对长爪沙鼠的捕食策略。鉴于秋季是长爪沙鼠的活跃期,直接采用鼠丘核心区的沙鼠洞口数作为衡量长爪沙鼠集群大小的指标,分析了大鵟对不同大小集群的长爪沙鼠家族集群的捕食选择偏好。实验涉及了3hm2的实验样地,样地中具有符合实验统计的长爪沙鼠洞群为87个。5d内作者观察到大鵟蹲守在样地中的长爪沙鼠29只次,共涉及23个沙鼠洞群。通过分析大鵟蹲守和没有蹲守过的沙鼠洞群的洞口数量,利用非参数的Mann-Whitney U检验法分析,结果表明:大鵟蹲守的洞群的洞口数量总秩和为2569.5,大鵟没有蹲守的沙鼠洞群的洞口数量秩和统计量为1258.5,统计量U值为489.5。校正之后的Z值为-2.37459,两组差异达到显著的水平(P=0.017574)。此外,分析还显示:沙鼠洞群洞口数量(S)与大鵟蹲守次数(F)呈显著的正相关关系,相关式为:F=-0.0559+0.023×S,(r=0.2707,P﹤0.05)。结果表明,大鵟会首先在洞口数量多的长爪沙鼠集群蹲守捕食,因此在越冬期间,长爪沙鼠的集群数量会被限制,进而可能形成一种最优化集群数量的模式。本文的研究结果从一定角度支持了鼠类通过形成最优集群以降低天敌捕食概率的理论。长爪沙鼠可能借助扩散行为,以及秋季的分群行为来降低集群密度从而降低被捕食风险。     

棕背(鼠平)在不同郁闭度林地下的数量及对预防幼林鼠害的意义

黑龙江省林区林木鼠害危及多种树种(图1-a、b),冬季啃食幼树树皮损失严重。(舒凤梅1975、1979)。为害鼠种主要为棕背(鼠平)(Clethrionomys rufocanus),其他各种鼠为红背(鼠平)(C.rutilus)、东方田鼠(Microtus fortis)、大林姬鼠(Apodemus Peninsulae)、黑线姬鼠（A.agrarius）和花鼠(Eutamias sibiricus)。以往多采用化学药物防治。本工作发现该鼠的数量与林地郁闭度有密切关系,故而探讨了利用调整鼠类栖息环境,预防林木鼠害发生的途径。     

五种杀鼠剂消灭长爪沙鼠的效果试验

长爪沙鼠(Meriones unguiculatus)是草原主要害鼠之一,既破坏草场,又传播多种疾病。近年来对消灭长爪沙鼠方面已有不少研究,在药物和方法上都有较大的进展。1975年5月14日至6月4日,我们在内蒙古自治区镶黄旗,对五种刚刚使用和正在试验研究过程中的杀鼠剂,进行了野外灭效试验。样地在内蒙古干草原,位于休耕地内,长爪沙鼠为优势种,密度较高,每公顷盗开洞约105-200个。     

The effects of population density on fecundity and fertility in the guppy, Poecilia reticulata (Peters)

Experiments were performed to examine the influence of population density on the fecundity and fertility in the guppy, Poecilia reticulata . The frequency of females with only ova or with different combinations of reproductive units and developmental stages in the ovary was significantly different between different densities but not between females with one and two gestations from the same population density. The ovarian width of females with one gestation from the lowest density was significantly larger than in the highest population density. Gonad length and height and ovarian volume of females with two gestation periods were larger in the lowest compared with the highest density. After one gestation, females at the lowest population level had greater ovarian length, height, gonad weight, width and volume compared with those from the higher density. Ovarian length, height and volume and gonad weight were also significantly greater among females of two gestation periods in the lowest than in the second lowest density. The average gonadosomatic ratio was highest in the lowest population density. A significant correlation was found between gonad volume and total body weight and between gonad volume and ovarian weight of females at every population level. This was also the case when ovarian weight vs. total body weight was examined in each population density. Only at the lowest population level was there a significant correlation between fecundity and total body length and between fertility and body length. A significant relationship was also found between gonad volume and total body length and between gonad weight and body length at the same population level. No significant difference of fecundity and ovum size was found between females of one and two gestation periods from the same density. Fecundity and fertility were significantly higher among females of one and two gestation periods from the lowest than from the highest density.     

福建省莆田地区小家鼠种群繁殖的研究

1987—1989年,作者在福建省蒲田地区采集小家鼠标本1616号(雌865,雄751),解剖、观察雌雄生殖器官的特征和变化,对种群中的性比、睾丸下降率、繁殖雌鼠率、怀孕率、胎仔数、繁殖指数的季节变化和年度差异作了分析。结果表明,该地区小家鼠全年均可繁殖。雄性小家鼠体重≥10克,雌性体重≥11克时,已有75％以上达性成熟,故体重可作为划分成体的标准。种群密度对种群繁殖有明显的反馈调节作用。     

内蒙古阴山北部农牧区长爪沙鼠种群适应特征的比较研究

长爪沙鼠(Meriones unguiculatus)是内蒙古阴山北部地区主要的农牧业害鼠。有关它的生态学及其危害已有过一些报道(夏武平等,1956; 赵肯堂,1960;夏武平等,1966;夏武平等,1982; 秦长育,1984)。对于农作区和草原区种群的适应性差异迄今未见研究。     

Bayesian population dynamics of interacting species: great gerbils and fleas in Kazakhstan

We propose a discrete-time Bayesian hierarchical model for the population dynamics of the great gerbil-flea ecological system. The model accounts for the sampling variability arising from data originally collected for other purposes. The prior for the unknown population densities incorporates specific biological hypotheses regarding the interacting dynamics of the two species, as well as their life cycles, where density-dependent effects are included. Posterior estimates are obtained via Markov chain Monte Carlo. The variance of the observed density estimates is a quadratic function of the unknown density. Our study indicates the presence of a density-dependent growth rate for the gerbil population. For the flea population there is clear evidence of density-dependent over-summer net growth, which is dependent on the flea-to-gerbil ratio at the beginning of the reproductive summer. Over-winter net growth is favored by high density. We estimate that on average 35% of the gerbil population survives the winter. Our study shows that hierarchical Bayesian models can be useful in extracting ecobiological information from observational data.     

Leaf developmental stability of Platanus acerifolia under urban environmental stress and its implication as an environmental indicator

The developmental stability indices,leaf width based fluctuating asymmetry (FA1),and lateral vein length based directional asymmetry (RDA1) of Platanus acerifolia were studied.All the leaves were sampled from 14 sites that were categorized based on different urban environmental stress levels (UESL) in Shanghai metropolitan,China.Besides,foliar stomatal density and stomatal length were also studied as the subsidiary indices to test the availability of developmental stability indices as the indicator under a stressful environment.Results showed seasonal variation of FA1 and RDA1 existed among the 14 sites,but the data showed significant negative correlation between FA1 and UESL (FA1=0.029-0.000 9UESL+0.000 3UESL2,r=0.766 5,P=0.001 4).However,a similar trend was not found between RDA1 and UESL.Furthermore,the significant correlation among FA1 and leaf stomatal length and stomatal density implied they could be used as indicators of urban stress levels on a small scale.It seemed that RDA1 was possibly a normal parameter during leaf development but it was unavailable for use as an indicator of urban stresses.     

Shifting body weight-fecundity relationship in a capital breeder: maternal effects on egg numbers of the autumnal moth under field conditions

In the literature, various environmental factors are described as being capable of influencing the reproductive output of insect females irrespective of their body size. Still, female body size or weight is widely used as a proxy for fecundity. In the present study, a seven-year data set on the autumnal moth, Epirrita autumnata (Borkhausen) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), was used to analyze whether the body weight-fecundity relationship in this capital breeding, cyclic forest defoliating lepidopteran is constant across years. Ambient temperature conditions and density of conspecifics during larval development, the length of the pupal period, as well as moth densities in the parent generation were examined as factors capable of modifying the body weight-fecundity relationship. While the regression slope of potential fecundity (total egg numbers per female) on pupal mass was constant across years, the mean total egg number per given body weight (the regression intercept) was significantly different between years. This residual variance in egg numbers after controlling for the effect of pupal mass was best explained by the pooled geometrid density (autumnal and winter moths) in the parent generation. The total egg number per given body weight decreased with increasing density of geometrid moths in the parent generation. Thus, maternal density effects on offspring fecundity were found in this system. Their rather weak nature suggests, however, that this maternal effect alone does not have the potential of causing cyclic population dynamics in the autumnal moth.     

大沙鼠种群密度与降水量的关系

大沙鼠（Rhombomys opimus）是中亚荒漠、半荒漠草原的典型鼠种,在荒漠草原多呈不连续的岛状分布,多集居于白刺（Nitraria sibirica）、盐爪爪（Kalidium foliatum）丛生的沙地或风成沙丘上的灌丛之间,是农、林、牧以及卫生防疫的重要害鼠。对其种群数量动态目前只有黄健和张大铭（2004）采用Leslie矩阵进行了研究。本文探讨了大沙鼠种群密度与降水量的关系,为其种群动态提供基础资料。     

Syphacia obvelata infections and reproduction of male domestic mice Mus musculus domesticus on a sub-Antarctic Island

The reproductive activity of feral male mice on an island of the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen archipelago was influenced by biological factors depending on periods within the breeding season. After having controlled host reproductive activity indices for body size, i.e. age, and body condition effects, Syphacia obvelata prevalence did not vary with host reproductive status or age either during the beginning or the middle-end of the reproductive season. Considering the beginning of the breeding season, worm abundance was more pronounced in males the year following a strong winter crash of the population than in years when high over wintering survival occurred. During the middle-end of the breeding season, males with the highest reproductive status were more infected than males with a lower reproductive status in years when oldest individuals dominated the population. It is suggested that this situation was due to an endocrine related increased host susceptibility partly influenced by a change in the age structure of the population, and that an increase in worm transmission was not directly related to male activity concurrent with reproductive status, nor to population density.