应用马尔可夫链模型预测长爪沙鼠和黑线仓鼠种群数量

依据1984～2004年21年在呼和浩特郊区对长爪沙鼠(Meriones unguiculatus)和黑线仓鼠(Cricetulus barabansis)种群数量动态的调查数据,结合优选法(0.618法),应用加权马尔可夫链预测模型,建立了长爪沙鼠和黑线仓鼠种群数量预测模型。应用此模型分别预测了长爪沙鼠和黑线仓鼠2004年的种群数量,预测值与实测值相符,预测准确。同时,预测了未来三年(2005～2007年)长爪沙鼠和黑线仓鼠的种群数量。结果表明,此方法计算简便、准确、可靠,为鼠类种群数量的预测提供了新的方法。

Forecasting the Population Dynamics of Meriones unguiculatus and Cricetulus barabansis by Applying Markov Model

The forecast model for population dynamics of Meriones unguiculatus and Cricetulus barabansis was built by using Markov chain,combining with optimization method(0.618) based on of population dynamics data of these two species that collected in Hohhot suburbs of Inner Mongolia from 1984 to 2004.And a forecast on the population dynamics of M.unguiculatus and C.barabansis in 2004 was made in this paper.The result showed that the forecast was corresponded to the field data accurately.The Markov model was applied to forecast the population dynamics of M.unguiculatus and C.barabansis for three years,from 2005 to 2007.The result showed that the model provided a handy,accurate and reliable method for the prediction on rodent population dynamics.