Effects of acorn abundance on density dependence in a Japanese wood mouse (Apodemus speciosus) population

We analysed the effects of Quercus crispula acorn abundance on the density dependence of the large Japanese wood mouse Apodemus speciosus using time series data (1992–2007). The data were obtained in a forest in northern Hokkaido, Japan, by live-trapping rodents and directly counting acorns on the ground. Acorn abundance in one year clearly influenced the abundance of wood mice in the following year in all models examined based on the Gompertz and Ricker model; in addition, the abundance of wood mice had effects on the population. Acorn abundance influenced the strength of density dependence (intraspecific competition) of the wood mouse population. When the abundance of acorns was high, density dependence was relaxed, and as a result the equilibrium density at which the population growth rate decreased to zero became higher. Those effects of acorn abundance were regarded as a nonlinear perturbation effect (sensu Royama 1992). The nonlinearity of density dependence was also detected; higher densities had stronger effects on population growth rates. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Timing and abundance as key mechanisms affecting trophic interactions in variable environments

Climatic changes are disrupting otherwise tight trophic interactions between predator and prey. Most of the earlier studies have primarily focused on the temporal dimension of the relationship in the framework of the match–mismatch hypothesis. This hypothesis predicts that predator's recruitment will be high if the peak of the prey availability temporally matches the most energy‐demanding period of the predators breeding phenology. However, the match–mismatch hypothesis ignores the level of food abundance while this can compensate small mismatches. Using a novel time‐series model explicitly quantifying both the timing and the abundance component for trophic relationships, we here show that timing and abundance of food affect recruitment differently in a marine (cod/zooplankton), a marine–terrestrial (puffin/herring) and a terrestrial (sheep/vegetation) ecosystem. The quantification of the combined effect of abundance and timing of prey on predator dynamics enables us to come closer to the mechanisms by which environment variability may affect ecological systems.     

Population genetic structure and connectivity in the endangered Ethiopian mountain Nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni): recommending dispersal corridors for future conservation

Habitat fragmentation is an increasing threat to wildlife species across the globe and it has been predicted that future biodiversity will decrease rapidly without the intervention of scientifically-based management. In this study we have applied a landscape genetics approach to suggest a network design that will maintain connectivity among populations of the endangered mountain Nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni) in the fragmented highlands of Ethiopia. DNA was obtained non-invasively from 328 individuals and genetic population structure and gene flow were estimated using 12 microsatellite markers. In addition, a 475-bp segment of the mitochondrial control region was sequenced for 132 individuals. Potential dispersal corridors were determined from least-cost path analysis based on a habitat suitability map. The genetic data indicated limited gene flow between the sampled mountain Nyala populations of the Bale Massif and the Arsi Massif. The genetic differentiation observed among five sampling areas of the Bale Massif followed a pattern of isolation by distance. We detected no impact of habitat resistance on the gene flow. In the future, however, the current expanding human population in the highlands of Ethiopia may reduce the current mountain Nyala habitat and further limit migration. Hence, maintaining habitat connectivity and facilitating survival of stepping-stone populations will be important for the future conservation of the species. The approach used here may also be useful for the study and conservation of other wildlife species inhabiting areas of increasing human encroachment.     

The trophic responses of two different rodent–vector–plague systems to climate change

Plague, the causative agent of three devastating pandemics in history, is currently a re-emerging disease, probably due to climate change and other anthropogenic changes. Without understanding the response of plague systems to anthropogenic or climate changes in their trophic web, it is unfeasible to effectively predict years with high risks of plague outbreak, hampering our ability for effective prevention and control of the disease. Here, by using surveillance data, we apply structural equation modelling to reveal the drivers of plague prevalence in two very different rodent systems: those of the solitary Daurian ground squirrel and the social Mongolian gerbil. We show that plague prevalence in the Daurian ground squirrel is not detectably related to its trophic web, and that therefore surveillance efforts should focus on detecting plague directly in this ecosystem. On the other hand, plague in the Mongolian gerbil is strongly embedded in a complex, yet understandable trophic web of climate, vegetation, and rodent and flea densities, making the ecosystem suitable for more sophisticated low-cost surveillance practices, such as remote sensing. As for the trophic webs of the two rodent species, we find that increased vegetation is positively associated with higher temperatures and precipitation for both ecosystems. We furthermore find a positive association between vegetation and ground squirrel density, yet a negative association between vegetation and gerbil density. Our study thus shows how past surveillance records can be used to design and improve existing plague prevention and control measures, by tailoring them to individual plague foci. Such measures are indeed highly needed under present conditions with prevailing climate change.     

Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species

Climate change is expected to have profound ecological effects, yet shifts in competitive abilities among species are rarely studied in this context. Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major) compete for food and roosting sites, yet coexist across much of their range. Climate change might thus change the competitive relationships and coexistence between these two species. Analysing four of the highest-quality, long-term datasets available on these species across Europe, we extend the textbook example of coexistence between competing species to include the dynamic effects of long-term climate variation. Using threshold time-series statistical modelling, we demonstrate that long-term climate variation affects species demography through different influences on density-dependent and density-independent processes. The competitive interaction between blue tits and great tits has shifted in one of the studied sites, creating conditions that alter the relative equilibrium densities between the two species, potentially disrupting long-term coexistence. Our analyses show that long-term climate change can, but does not always, generate local differences in the equilibrium conditions of spatially structured species assemblages. We demonstrate how long-term data can be used to better understand whether (and how), for instance, climate change might change the relationships between coexisting species. However, the studied populations are rather robust against competitive exclusion.     

Spatial Heterogeneity as a Genetic Mixing Mechanism in Highly Philopatric Colonial Seabirds

How genetic diversity is maintained in philopatric colonial systems remains unclear, and understanding the dynamic balance of philopatry and dispersal at all spatial scales is essential to the study of the evolution of coloniality. In the King penguin, Aptenodytes patagonicus, return rates of post-fledging chicks to their natal sub-colony are remarkably high. Empirical studies have shown that adults return year after year to their previous breeding territories within a radius of a few meters. Yet, little reliable data are available on intra- and inter-colonial dispersal in this species. Here, we present the first fine-scale study of the genetic structure in a king penguin colony in the Crozet Archipelago. Samples were collected from individual chicks and analysed at 8 microsatellite loci. Precise geolocation data of hatching sites and selective pressures associated with habitat features were recorded for all sampling locations. We found that despite strong natal and breeding site fidelity, king penguins retain a high degree of panmixia and genetic diversity. Yet, genetic structure appears markedly heterogeneous across the colony, with higher-than-expected inbreeding levels, and local inbreeding and relatedness hotspots that overlap predicted higher-quality nesting locations. This points towards heterogeneous population structure at the sub-colony level, in which fine-scale environmental features drive local philopatric behaviour, while lower-quality patches may act as genetic mixing mechanisms at the colony level. These findings show how a lack of global genetic structuring can emerge from small-scale heterogeneity in ecological parameters, as opposed to the classical model of homogeneous dispersal. Our results also emphasize the importance of sampling design for estimation of population parameters in colonial seabirds, as at high spatial resolution, basic genetic features are shown to be location-dependent. Finally, this study stresses the importance of understanding intra-colonial dispersal and genetic mixing mechanisms in order to better estimate species-wide gene flows and population dynamics.     

African wolf diet,predation on livestock and conflict in the Guassa mountains of Ethiopia

The African wolf (Canis lupus lupaster) was first identified in 2011 in the Ethiopian highlands, with its status as a new species confirmed in 2015. We studied the diet of a confirmed African wolf population in the Menz‐Guassa Community Conservation Area of central Ethiopia from scat samples collected by den sites from August to November 2010. Rodents were found to be the principal food items occurring in 88.1% of scats (n = 101), followed by plant material (34.7%) and insects (21.8%). Information on reported livestock predation and ensuing conflict with the agro‐pastoral community was obtained through a questionnaire survey. Interview respondents listed the African wolf as the most serious predator of livestock, accounting for 74.6% of the reported kills (n = 492) and 78.9% of the economic loss. Over 70% of reported livestock predation occurred during the dry season (January–April). Better livestock management during this period may significantly reduce conflict. As sympatric Ethiopian wolves primarily feed on rodents, further studies on the foraging ecology, niche overlap and interspecific interactions between the two species should be studied to determine the extent of competition between the two species.     

Divergent trends in anadromous salmonid populations in Norwegian and Scottish rivers

The Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) is a charismatic anadromous fish of high conservation and economic value. Concerns have been expressed regarding the long-term viability of fisheries throughout the species''s distributional range because of abundance variations that cannot currently be explained or predicted. Here, we analyse long-term catch data obtained over a wide geographical range and across a range of spatial subscales to understand more fully the factors that drive population abundance. We use rod catch data from 84 Norwegian rivers over 125 years (1876–2000) and 48 Scottish rivers over 51 years (1952–2002). The temporal correlation in catches is very long-term, with trends persisting over several decades. The spatial correlation is relatively short-range, indicating strong local-scale effects on catch. Furthermore, Scottish salmon populations exhibit recent negative trends in contrast to some more positive trends in Norway—especially in the north.