气候变暖对东北玉米低温冷害分布规律的影响

利用东北地区48个农气站1961-2010年气象资料和近20多年玉米生育期资料,建立生育阶段热量指数和冷害指数,分析气候变暖对东北玉米4个生育阶段热量及低温冷害分布格局的影响。结果表明:热量指数总体表现为明显的增加趋势;平均温度、热量指数的年代际变化特征明显,中晚、晚熟区的上升趋势均小于早、中熟区;冷害频率总体表现为明显的减小趋势;气候变暖对两个熟型区域4个生育阶段的冷害影响并不一致,早、中熟区的冷害平均频率最大值均出现在20世纪60年代,中晚、晚熟区的冷害平均频率最大值均出现在70年代,两个熟型区域的最小值均出现在21世纪初。研究结果可为未来东北地区调整玉米种植制度和生产布局,为适应气候变化和趋利避害提供科学依据。     

气候变化对黑龙江省水稻障碍型冷害的影响

明确气候变化对黑龙江省水稻孕穗期和抽穗期障碍型冷害的影响,可为水稻安全生产提供科学依据。基于黑龙江省70个台站1971—2012年的气象资料和10个台站1980—2011年水稻生育期数据,结合水稻障碍型冷害指标,分析了气候变化对黑龙江省水稻障碍型冷害的影响。结果表明:(1)水稻孕穗期障碍型冷害1990s发生频率最低,2000s发生频率最高;抽穗期障碍型冷害1970s和1980s发生频率高,1990s和2000s发生频率低。(2)抽穗期障碍型冷害发生程度大于孕穗期障碍型冷害。(3)不同熟型水稻品种可种植北界逐渐北移东扩,极早熟、早熟和中熟品种可种植范围分别缩小了5、21和11个县(市),中晚熟和晚熟品种可种植范围分别扩大了14和23个县(市)。(4)随着水稻种植格局的变化,不同熟型水稻障碍型冷害均在1990s发生频率最低,2000s发生频率最高。     

1961-2013年东北三省玉米低温冷害强度的时空分布特征

基于东北三省1961-2013年气象数据、《北方春玉米冷害评估技术规范（QX/T167-2012）行业标准》,结合具有生物学意义的热量指数,给出了东北三省低温冷害强度分级,利用经验正交函数（EOF）分解法和旋转经验正交函数（REOF）分解法分析了东北三省玉米低温冷害强度时空分布特征。结果表明：东北三省玉米低温冷害强度具有明显的空间分布特点,可分为全区一致型、南北反相位分布型以及东西反相位分布型。东北三省玉米低温冷害强度的时间变化具有较好的一致性,1961-2013年东北三省低温冷害的发生强度呈波动减小趋势。低温冷害强度区域差异显著,按照低温冷害强度强弱可分为黑龙江-吉林北部区（Ⅰ区）、吉林南部-辽宁北部区（Ⅲ区）和辽宁南部区（Ⅱ区）。研究结果可为东北三省低温冷害风险区划和采取有效的减灾避灾措施提供依据。     

1961-2010年中国春玉米潜在种植分布的年代际动态变化

基于构建的中国春玉米种植分布-气候关系模型,对1961-2010年春玉米潜在种植分布年代际变化进行了分析.结果表明:春玉米潜在可种植面积呈增加趋势;气候最适宜种植面积波动式增加,近10年达5.3×105 km2;适宜种植面积明显扩大,近50年增加约8.2×105 km2,且呈东扩趋势;潜在种植北界呈波动式北移,最大北抬达1.4个纬度.表明,气候变化有利于中国扩大春玉米种植,但一些地区可能受水分条件的限制.     

气候变暖可能对东北三省农业生态环境的影响及其对策

随着未来气候变暖,我国东北三省农业生态环境可能发生较大的变化,其变化趋势为,热量条件变好,作物生育期延长,冷害频率降低,积雪期缩短,湿润条件变差,干旱频率增大,蒸发量增加。未来气候变暖,若平均气温升高2℃,那时东北三省粮食产量可增加36%左右,农业地带将大幅度地向北推移,并且提出相应的农业对策。     

长江中下游热量资源时空演变特征及其对双季稻种植的影响

热量资源的时空特征是影响双季稻种植布局的主要气候因素.为了分析近52年长江中下游主要双季稻区热量资源的变化特征及其对双季稻种植的影响,本研究选取湖南、江西和湖北3省作为双季稻代表性研究区域,根据3省240个气象站1961—2012年的地面气象观测资料,利用气候倾向率及突变分析等方法,分析研究区双季稻温度生长期的热量资源和双季稻的安全生长期的演变规律,在此基础上分析研究时段内不同水稻品种搭配布局及种植北界的变迁.结果表明: 近52年双季稻温度生长期及安全生长期的热量资源均呈明显增多趋势,其中,双季稻生长期及安全生长期的热量资源由寡至多的突变点均出现在2000年;双季早稻安全播种期提前3～7 d、双季晚稻安全齐穗期延后2 d,双季稻安全生长期平均延长7 d;双季稻种植北界明显北移了200 km左右,至33° N附近;同时,双季稻品种搭配由“早熟早稻+中熟晚稻”和“中熟早稻+中熟晚稻”向“中熟早稻+晚熟晚稻”转变.长江中下游双季稻区热量资源的增加为双季稻种植北界北移、中晚熟品种替代早中熟品种提供了可能.     

中国北方气候暖干化对粮食作物的影响及应对措施

东北、华北和西北50a来的平均气温增幅高于全国平均水平,气候变暖明显,尤其冬季增温最显著。区域增暖的极端最低气温远比极端最高气温的贡献大。东北、华北大部、西北东部降水量明显减少,平均每10a减少20—40mm,尤其春夏季减少最明显。这种趋势一直延续到20世纪90年代以后,干旱化趋势非常突出。在综述我国北方现代气候变化基本特征是暖干化的基础上,重点阐述了喜凉作物冬小麦、春小麦、马铃薯和喜温作物水稻、玉米、谷子、糜子等7种主要粮食作物的生长发育、品种熟性、种植区域与面积、产量与品质等对气候暖干化的响应特征。揭示了气候暖干化使春播作物播期提早,苗期生长发育速度加快,营养生长期提前,生殖生长期和全生育期延长;秋作物发育期推迟,生殖生长期和全生长期延长;越冬作物播期推迟,越冬死亡率降低,种植风险减少,春初提前返青,生殖生长期提早,全生育期缩短。使作物适宜种植区域向高纬度高海拔扩展;品种熟性向偏中晚熟高产品种发展;喜温作物和越冬作物以及冷凉气候区的作物种植面积迅速扩大;在旱作区种植不较耐旱的玉米、春小麦等作物种植面积受到制约。对雨养农业区的作物气候产量影响严重,尤其对不够耐旱的小麦和玉米的气候产量受影响最大;对较耐旱的谷子、糜子、马铃薯等影响较轻。从作物属性而言,对喜温作物水稻、玉米和越冬作物冬小麦有利于气候产量提高;对喜凉作物春小麦和马铃薯的气候产量将产生不利影响。同时,提出了从5个方面应对气候暖干化的技术措施,调整作物种植结构,确保粮食生产安全;根据不同气候年型调整各种作物种植比例;针对不同气候区域发展优势作物和配置作物种植格局;采取不同栽培技术和管理模式应对气候变化;采取综合配套技术提髙抵御灾害能力。为粮食作物安全生产和种植结构调整与布局提供科学依据。     

烤烟低温冷害指数构建及其变化特征

使用1961-2009年云南烤烟种植区62个气象代表站的逐日平均气温和最低气温,基于低温指标和权重指数构建了烤烟低温冷害指数模型,采用线性趋势及M-K突变检测方法,分析了低温冷害指数的变化特征.结果表明:1961-2009年春、夏、秋烤烟低温冷害指数全省平均值逐年变化均呈减弱趋势,春季减弱最为显著,夏秋减弱趋势不及春季且不显著;春、夏烤烟低温冷害指数全省平均值在20世纪60年代和70年代最高,在2001-2009年最低,秋季则为60年代最高,70年代最低;各季节中低温冷害指数呈减弱趋势及变化显著的站点春、夏季最多,秋季最少;M-K检测表明,春季低温冷害指数全省逐年平均值变化趋势显著,并在1997年出现突变点,而夏季和秋初变化均不显著,春季全省发生显著突变的站点达30％,但夏秋季不到10％,各站点出现突变的时间以20世纪80年代及90年代末期为主.     

气候变化对甘肃省粮食生产的影响研究进展

甘肃省气候自1986年起向整体暖干化、局部暖湿化转型突变.与1960年相比,转型后2010年平均气温升高了1.1 ℃,平均降水量减少了28 mm,干旱半干旱区南移约50 km.气候变暖使甘肃省主要作物生育期有效积温增加,生长期延长,熟性、布局和种植制度改变,宜种区和种植海拔增加,多熟制北移,夏粮面积缩小,秋粮面积增大.弱冬性、中晚熟品种逐步取代强冬性、中早熟品种,有利于提高光温利用率,增加产量.暖湿型气候增加了绿洲灌区作物的气候生产力,暖干型气候降低了雨养农业区的气候产量,水分和肥力条件是决定因素.以提高有限降水利用率和利用效率、改善和提升土壤质量及肥力为核心,选育强抗逆、弱冬性、中晚熟、高水分利用效率的作物新品种,建立适温、适水的种植结构和种植制度,是甘肃省应对气候变化进行粮食生产的主要发展方向.     

温度对玉米生长和产量的影响

为了明确气温变化对玉米生长发育和产量的影响,建立玉米低温冷害监测和气象评估模式,在东北地区中部的榆树市进行了玉米分期播种试验。试验采用3个品种,设置早、中、晚3个播种期,进行玉米生长发育进程、叶面积指数、生物量、产量和温度等观测。结果表明：玉米的生长速率与温度密切相关,平均气温每升高1 ℃,出苗速率提升17%,营养生长速率提升5%;积温每增加100 ℃·d,玉米最大叶面积指数增加10%,最大生物量和产量增加8%;玉米生长发育期(日平均气温稳定>10 ℃期间)间平均气温降低0.7 ℃,或活动积温减少100 ℃·d,玉米成熟期将延迟7 d,发生一般低温冷害,玉米单产减少8%;气温下降1 ℃,或积温减少140 ℃·d,生育期延迟10 d,发生严重低温冷害,减产10%以上;在水分条件比较适宜的前提条件下,气候变暖对东北地区玉米单产提高是有利的。     

气候变化背景下我国东北三省农业气候资源变化特征

基于1961-2007年中国东北三省72个气象台站的气象资料,分析了东北三省全年及温度生长期内的平均气温、≥10 ℃积温、降水量、日照时数和参考作物蒸散量等农业气候资源的变化特征.结果表明：研究期间,东北三省年均气温总体呈升高趋势,其气候倾向率为0.38 ℃·10 a^-1;温度生长期内≥10 ℃积温同样呈上升趋势,且积温带逐渐北移东扩,全区高于3200 ℃·d积温带面积增加了2.2×10⁴ km²,2800～3200 ℃·d积温带北移0.85°、东移0.67°,2400～2800 ℃·d积温带北移1.1°;东北三省年日照时数显著下降,且以松嫩平原东部、吉林省中西部平原、辽河平原西部的减少尤为明显,全区年日照时数高于2800 h的区域面积由13.6×10⁴ km²缩小到4.1×10⁴ km²,2600～2800 h的区域向西推进了1.5°;全区温度生长期内日照时数平均为1174 h,与1961-1980年相比,1981-2007年温度生长期内的日照时数高值区明显减少,日照时数1200～1400 h的区域向西推进了0.9°;1961-2007年间,研究区年降水量及温度生长期内降水量均呈下降趋势;黑龙江省全年参考作物蒸散量整体呈增加趋势,吉林省中西部平原区有所减小、东部山区呈增加趋势,辽宁省均呈减小趋势,与1961-1980年的年均值相比,1981-2007年年参考作物蒸散量高于900 mm区域向西推移了约1°;黑龙江省和吉林省绝大部分区域温度生长期内参考作物蒸散量逐年增加,而辽宁省绝大部分区域以小于14 mm·10 a^-1的幅度在减少.     

我国春玉米潜在种植分布区的气候适宜性

根据中国气象局216个春玉米农业气象观测站资料与1971—2000年10 km×10 km空间分辨率的气候资料,基于全国区域和年尺度筛选出了影响我国玉米种植分布的潜在气候指标,利用最大熵(Maximum Entropy,MaxEnt)模型和ArcGIS空间分析技术,构建了春玉米潜在种植分布与气候因子关系模型,研究了影响我国春玉米潜在种植分布区的主导气候因子及其气候适宜性。结果表明,影响我国春玉米潜在种植分布的主导气候因子有:≥10℃积温、≥10℃的天数、最热月平均温度、年平均温度、年降水、湿润指数和气温年较差;结合春玉米存在概率,将我国春玉米潜在种植分布区划分成4个等级:气候不适宜区、次适宜区、适宜区和最适宜区,给出了各气候适宜区的气候特征。选取作物在待预测地区的存在概率这一综合反映各主导气候因子影响的指标来划分作物潜在种植分布区,有助于更加准确地进行气候区划,从而可为制定玉米应对气候变化措施提供科学依据。     

Is the Sonoran Desert losing its cool?

Freezing temperatures strongly influence vegetation in the hottest desert of North America, in part determining both its overall boundary and distributions of plant species within. To evaluate recent variability of freezing temperatures in this context, minimum temperature data from weather stations in the Sonoran Desert are examined. Data show widespread warming trends in winter and spring, decreased frequency of freezing temperatures, lengthening of the freeze‐free season, and increased minimum temperatures per winter year. Local land use and multidecadal modes of the global climate system such as the Pacific decadal oscillation and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation do not appear to be principal drivers of this warming. Minimum temperature variability in the Sonoran Desert does, however, correspond to global temperature variability attributed to human‐dominated global warming. With warming expected to continue at faster rates throughout the 21st century, potential ecological responses may include contraction of the overall boundary of the Sonoran Desert in the south‐east and expansion northward, eastward, and upward in elevation, as well as changes to distributions of plant species within and other characteristics of Sonoran Desert ecosystems. Potential trajectories of vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert region may be affected or made more difficult to predict by uncertain changes in warm season precipitation variability and fire. Opportunities now exist to investigate ecosystem response to regional climate disturbance, as well as to anticipate and plan for continued warming in the Sonoran Desert region.     

Different responses of Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) and Mongolia oak (Quercus mongolica) growth to recent climate warming in northeast China

Different tree species growing in the same area may have different, or even contrasting growth responses to climate change. Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) and Mongolia oak (Quercus mongolica) are two crucial tree species in temperate forest ecosystems. Six tree-ring chronologies for Korean pine and Mongolia oak were developed by using the zero-signal method to explore their growth response to the recent climate warming in northeast China. Results showed that Mongolia oak radial growth was mainly limited by precipitation in the growing season, while Korean pine growth depended on temperature condition, especially monthly minimum temperature. With the latitude decrease, the relationships between Korean pine growth and monthly precipitation changed from negative to positive correlation, while the positive correlation with monthly temperature gradually weakened. In the contrary, Mongolia oak growth at the three sampling sites was significantly and positively correlated with precipitation in the growing season, while it was negatively correlated with temperature and this relationship decreased with the latitude decrease. The radial growth of Korean pine at different sites showed a clearly discrepant responses to the recent warming since 1980. Korean pine growth in the north site increased with the temperature increase, decreased in the midwest site, and almost unchanged in the southeast site. Conversely, Mongolia oak growth was less affected by the recent climate warming. Our finding suggested that tree species trait and sites are both key factors that affect the response of tree growth to climate change. In addition, the suitable distribution area of Korean pine may be moved northward with the continued global warming in the future, but Mongolia oak may not shift in the same way.     

黑龙江省玉米气候生产力演变及其对气候变化的响应

在气候变化背景下,深入揭示玉米气候生产力的变化趋势及其空间差异、明晰玉米气候资源利用规律,可为黑龙江省农业生产宏观决策提供科学依据.基于黑龙江省72个气象站1981—2014年的气象资料和对应的产量资料,采用逐步订正、空间插值、线性趋势分析等方法,研究玉米的光合、光温、气候生产力的时空变化特征、主要影响因素和增产潜力,并对未来不同气候情景下玉米气候生产力进行评估.结果表明: 研究期间,黑龙江省玉米光合、光温和气候生产力平均值分别为26558、19953和18742 kg·hm^-2;在空间分布上均表现为平原高山地低、由西南向东北逐渐减少;光合、光温、气候生产力均表现为显著增加趋势,其增幅分别为378、723和560 kg·hm^-2·(10 a)^-1,且辐射量和气温的增加对黑龙江省玉米生产具有正效应;玉米气候生产力对气候变化响应明显,松嫩平原西部因光能资源的减少导致玉米光合生产力降低,气温升高则在一定程度上弥补了光照带来的负面效应,玉米光温生产力下降趋势有所减缓,北部和东部对气候变暖的响应表现尤为明显,玉米光温生产力表现为明显上升趋势,而松嫩平原西南部及三江平原易旱区则对降水变化反映敏感;玉米实际单产与其气候生产力比率的平均值仅为24.1%,仍有75.9%的潜力有待开发;未来“暖湿型”气候对提高玉米气候生产力有利,而“冷干型”气候则不利于玉米气候生产力的提高.     

Cytological Studies on the Cold Resistance of Plants-Morphological Changes of the Intracellular Structures of Wheat in the Overwintering Period

The present work comprises a study of 6 wheat varieties of various degrees of cold resistance. They are: 2 winter varieties, Nungta 183 and Huapei 187; 2 spring varieties, Nanta 2419 and Piyü; and 2 intermediate varieties (according to their winter hardiness), Pima No. 1 and Pingyüan 50. All these varieties were cultivated under the same natural conditions. Cytological changes of each of the varieties were studied comparatively at different stages of the overwintering period. In addition, certain morphological and physiological features of the above mentioned varieties were also studied. With the temperature gradually falling in autumn, the rate of the cell divisions and the physiological activities of the nucleoli of the winter varieties decreased, the growth of the plants and the development of the apical cones were suppressed, and so more storage materials were left. The less hardy and non-hardy varieties, on the other hand, retained their cytophysiological activities and high growing rate, so that the stored materials were much less than those left in the winter varieties. However the non-resistant varieties could not withstand the winter frost and survived no more. The plants of the less hardy varieties were partly killed by winter frost. When the temperature dropped further in winter, plasmolysis gradually appeared in the cells of the tillering nodes of the cold resistant wheat plants, and it disappeared with the return of the warmer weather. The degrees of the plasmolysis in different varieties were found proportional to their cold hardiness, and no plasrnolysis was observed in the spring wheat. Thus a correlation apparently exists between the plasmolysis and the cold resistance in wheat. In winter, the vacuoles of the young leaf cells and of the cells of the primary meristematic tissues of the apical cones became smaller and smaller, while a dense reticular structure appeared in the cytoplasm. In spring, the vacuoles restored, and the reticular structure disappeared. It seems that the occurrence of the reticular structure in the winter season is also closely correlated with the cold resistance of the wheat plants. It was found that the nuclei and the chloroplasts of the winter varieties were more resistant to cold than those of the less resistant and non-resistant varieties. The stability of these structures increased in hardened condition. Morphological changes of the chloroplasts of the young leaf cells occured from autumn to winter, they were transformed from polymorphic to uniformly globular. The chloroplasts of some cells were balling together, however, they actually retained their individualities. The chondriosomes increased in size and quantity during the hardened period. They became short and thick, some were in globular form or they clumped together in severe winter, and gradually restored when warmer weather arrived in the spring. The correlations of the mitosis, the plasmolysis, the appearance of the reticular structure in the cytoplasm and the stability of the nuclei with the cold resistance of the wheat were discussed.     

黄淮海地区干旱变化特征及其对气候变化的响应

为了探究气候变化背景下黄淮海地区的干旱特征,基于黄淮海平原34个气象站点的1961—2012年气象数据,使用相对湿润指数探讨分析了近50年黄淮海地区冬小麦生长季及4个季节干旱的时空变化及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:(1)在整个分析期内(1961—2011)冬小麦生长季干旱减轻,但是在近20年干旱有了加重的趋势,且干旱加重的趋势是一种突变现象。(2)黄淮海地区1961年以来,春季、冬季以及冬小麦生长季内均表现为不同程度的干旱,干旱频率都达到90%以上,其中春、冬两季最为干旱,3个时段整个黄淮海中北部地区都为高频干旱区域,且4个季节及冬小麦生长季干旱程度与干旱频率的区域分布均表现为由南向北递增的趋势。(3)黄淮海地区的干旱特征对降水、太阳辐射和相对湿度这3个气候要素的变化最为敏感。     

辽宁省玉米复合农业气象灾害判识及特征

玉米生产过程中常常遭受复合农业气象灾害,为了解辽宁省玉米复合农业气象灾害发生规律和特征,本研究对复合农业气象灾害进行定义和分类,对1961—2017年辽宁省50个气象站玉米生长季的复合农业气象灾害发生情况进行判识,探讨典型年复合农业气象灾害对玉米产量的影响。结果表明: 1961—2017年,大部分年份辽宁省玉米复合农业气象灾害的发生范围大于单一农业气象灾害,大部分地区复合农业气象灾害发生频率高于单一农业气象灾害。最主要的复合农业气象灾害是多个发育期遭遇干旱,其次是干旱与延迟型冷害并发。研究期间,多发育期干旱复合型灾害的发生范围呈现扩大趋势,其他复合类型灾害发生范围均呈缩小趋势。通过分析玉米典型减产年复合农业气象灾害发生情况,发现多发育期干旱复合型和干旱+低温冷害复合型两种灾害出现频率较高。