江西红壤坡地柑橘园生态水文特征及水土保持效益

在江西省水土保持生态科技园对标准柑橘试验小区生态水文特征进行9年的定位观测,设置7个处理,研究柑橘园生态水文特征及水土保持效益.结果表明： 7个处理的平均减流率和减沙率分别为78.5%和77.2%,其中,林下百喜草(Paspalum natatu)带状覆盖、百喜草全园覆盖和水平梯田+梯壁植草减流率较高,分别为94.8%、94.3%和92.5%;柑橘清耕地减流率较低,为33.1%;林下套种黄豆和萝卜减流率居中,为66.0%和77.5%,且横坡耕作优于纵坡耕作.对2009-2010年发生的43场平均降雨量为20.07 mm的雨水柑橘林冠再分配格局进行观测,穿透降〖JP2〗雨量平均为9.15 mm,树干茎流量平均为4.72 mm,林冠截留量平均为620 mm,分别占林外降雨量的44.7%、25.7%和29.6%.随着林外降雨量的增大,林冠层的穿透雨量、茎流量呈递增趋势.当降雨量<10 mm时,树冠截留率与林外降雨之间呈显著的线性负相关;当降雨量>10 mm时,二者之间的相关性不明显.柑橘枯落物的持水率与浸水时间呈对数回归关系,最大持水率达326%.合理的林下植被配置对柑橘果园的水土保持具有重要作用.     

桉树人工林冠层、凋落物及土壤水文生态效应

水文功能是森林生态功能的重要方面,为了解桉树人工林的水文生态效应,采用定位研究并结合室内测定的实验方法,研究了广东肇庆桉树人工林冠层降雨再分配、凋落物持水能力、土壤水分物理及蓄水能力。结果表明,研究期间(2006-05-2007-05)的大气降雨量为2016.7mm,通过林冠层后降雨被重新分配,穿透降雨量、树干茎流量和林冠截留量分别占总降雨量的85.70%、3.62%和10.68%。产生树干茎流的临界降雨量为3.93mm,穿透雨量、树干茎流量与林外降雨量均呈极显著正相关(P0.01);林冠截留率与降雨量呈显著的负相关(P0.05),降雨量超过20mm后,林冠截留率基本保持稳定。本研究桉树人工林的凋落物最大持水量为4.27mm,凋落物中树叶的最大持水量最大,为2.54mm。0-100cm土层的最大蓄水量为470.06mm,其中非毛管蓄水量为98.22mm,土壤总孔隙度和非毛管孔隙度随土壤深度增加呈递减趋势;0-10cm土壤层的初渗速率和稳渗速率分别为25.03mm.min-1和8.83mm.min-1,且随土壤深度增加而逐渐减小。     

岷江上游亚高山川滇高山栎林的降雨再分配

基于2007年6-9月岷江上游地区的气象数据,采用定位研究方法对该区川滇高山栎林的降雨再分配进行了研究.结果表明：研究期间,林外总降雨量486.7 mm,林内穿透雨量、树干茎流量和林冠截留量分别占总降雨量的82.6%、0.9%和16.5%;穿透雨量和树干茎流量与降雨量均呈极显著的线性关系(P<0.01,n=49),穿透雨率和树干茎流率与降雨量的关系可用非线性曲线表示;当林外降雨量>3.2 mm时开始出现树干茎流,且树干茎流量(L)与树干基面积(cm²)呈明显的指数关系(R²=0.623).林冠截留率随降雨量(mm)的增加呈双曲线递减;林冠截留率与降雨量、降雨持续时间、降雨强度、降雨时空气相对湿度均呈极显著负相关(P<0.01,n=49),而与风速呈极显著正相关(P<0.01,n=49).     

太岳山不同郁闭度油松人工林降水分配特征

利用2011年5-9月生长季观测的30场降雨数据,分析了山西太岳山不同郁闭度下油松人工林林冠截留、穿透雨以及树干茎流与降雨量的关系,以及林冠截留过程的特点.结果表明:(1)实验观测期间,该地区降雨总量为634.79mm,单次平均降雨量为21.16mm,单次最大降雨量为58.15mm,单次最小降雨量为0.54mm.其中,8月份的降雨总量最大,为190.77mm,6月份的降雨总量最小,为41.81mm.(2)郁闭度为0.8的油松人工林林冠截留量与降雨量呈一元线性关系,郁闭度为0.7、0.6和0.5均呈幂函数关系;对于各郁闭度的油松人工林,其林冠截留率与降雨量均呈对数函数关系;穿透雨量、树干茎流量与降雨量均呈明显的一元线性关系,穿透雨量和树干茎流量都随着降雨量的增加而增加.(3)不同郁闭度油松人工林之间林冠截留、穿透雨和树干茎流不同,总的趋势为随着郁闭度的减小,林冠截留量减小,穿透雨量增大,树干茎流量增大.林冠截留量与郁闭度表现出正相关关系,而穿透雨量、树干茎流量都与郁闭度表现出负相关关系.(4)各郁闭度林冠截留量、穿透雨量和树干茎流量的月动态变化与总降水量的月变化基本一致.     

陇中黄土高原油松人工林林冠截留特征及模拟

以陇中黄土高原安家沟小流域的油松人工林为对象,于2011年生长季(5---9月)观测其林外降雨、穿透雨、树干茎流及林冠结构特征,采用修正的Gash解析模型模拟林冠截留,研究油松人工林的生态水文过程及影响机理.结果表明:研究期间共观测到19次降雨事件,总降雨量为215.80 mm,其中林冠截留48.27 mm,占总降雨量的22.4％;穿透雨165.24 mm,占同期林外降雨量的76.7％;树干茎流量2.29 mm,占同期降雨量的1.1％.模拟的林冠截留量为41.24 mm,比实测值低7.13 mm,相对误差为14.7％,其中,33.8％和60.0％截留分别在降雨期间和降雨之后蒸发.修正的Gash解析模型对林冠盖度、林冠持水能力、蒸发和雨强有较强的敏感性,而对树干茎流率和树干持水能力的敏感性不高.     

辽宁东部山区落叶松人工林林冠降雨截留观测及模拟

利用2005-2008年辽东山区落叶松人工林林冠降雨截留观测数据,并选取Gash解析模型模拟林冠截留过程.结果表明：落叶松人工林林内穿透雨量与林外降雨量呈显著正相关关系(R²=0.98),年均穿透雨量占总降雨量的77.64%;林冠截留量与降雨量和降雨强度之间呈正相关关系;除2007年由于降雨间隔时间短导致模拟截留量大于实测截留量外,模型模拟的林冠截留量均小于实测林冠截留量;模型模拟的绝对误差与林外降水量呈负指数相关,为1.26%～68.96%,平均值为29.09%;模拟值与实测值之间的相关系数为0.91,模型模拟结果与实测结果相吻合.     

鼎湖山针阔叶混交林生态系统水文效应研究

对鼎湖山针阔叶混交林水文效应的研究表明2002年8月-2003年7月,大气总降水量为1 690mm,林内净降水量为1212.7 mm,占总降水量的72%,其中穿透雨量和茎流量分别为1 125.3和87.4 mm,占总降水量的.66.6%和5.2%.林冠截留量为477.3 mm,截留率28.2%.地表径流量62.1 mm,占总降水量的3.7%.在一定的降水量范围内,林冠对降水的截留量随着降水量的增加而增加,不同的雨量级,林冠截留量变化的趋势曲线不同,且一次截留降水量饱和值约为25 mm;穿透雨量、茎流量均随着林外大气降水量的增加呈线性增加;当日大气降水量在0-30 mm时,地表径流量很小,且呈线性递增;当日大气降水量＞30 mm时,地表径流量随降水量增加以对数递增.与马尾松纯林和季风常绿阔叶林相比,针阔叶混交林在减少地表径流和保持水土等方面具有更好的水文生态效应.     

喀斯特地区典型针叶林的降雨截留分配效应

以贵州喀斯特地区典型针叶林为研究对象, 采用定位观测方法对降雨分配特征进行研究。观测期内采集到 36 场降雨数据, 林外降雨总量为 300.66 mm, 主要以小雨为主。10 月降雨量最大, 占观测数据中降雨量的 57.29%, 3 月降雨量最小, 占观测数据中降雨量的 1.43%。树干流总量为 31.34 mm, 占降雨总量的 10.42%。树干流量变化范围为 0-4.7 mm, 树干流率变化范围为 0-34.55%。穿透雨总量为 218.02 mm, 占降雨总量的 72.51%, 穿透雨量随着降雨量的增大而逐渐增大, 穿透雨率与林外降雨量存在一定的相关性, 林外降雨量越大, 林间穿透雨率越大。灌木层截留总量为 29.11 mm, 占降雨总量的 9.68%, 灌木截留量随降雨量的增大而增大, 但截留率与降雨量之间没有明显的相关关系。林冠截留总量为 51.24 mm, 占同期降雨的17.04%, 树冠截留量随着降雨的增大而增大, 林冠截留率随降雨增大而减小。     

华北石质山区油松林对降水再分配过程的影响

森林通过降水再分配过程影响着流域的水量平衡和物质循环。根据2005-2008年汛期华北石质山区主要造林树种油松林的林外降雨、穿透降雨、树干径流定位观测数据,探讨了人工油松林对降雨再分配过程的影响。结果表明,测定期间32场次降雨过程中油松林穿透雨量、树干径流量和林冠截留量平均值分别为8.67,0.11,1.07mm;透过率,树干径流率和林冠截留率分别为82.18%(57.74%-87.55%),1.07%(0.22%-2.07%),16.75%(11.01%-42.07%)。油松林冠层穿透降雨量、树干径流量和林冠截留量均与林外降雨量呈明显的线性关系(R2=0.995,R2=0.907,R2=0.855),根据回归方程,当林外降雨量大于0.3mm时,可发生穿透降雨,当林外降雨量大于3.51mm时,可发生树干径流;林冠截留率与林外降雨呈双曲线衰减趋势,回归方程为y=12.091+55.537/(x+0.426)(N=32,R2=0.685)。典型次降雨再分配过程表明,林冠不仅在量上对降雨进行再分配,还在时程上进行了再分配。     

马尾松林分结构对冠层水文效应的影响

了解不同林分结构森林的水文效应及其主要影响因素,可为林分抚育经营管理提供科学依据。本研究在三峡库区九领头林场设置14块20 m×30 m马尾松林样地,观测其林冠截留量、树干茎流量和穿透雨量,调查马尾松林分结构因子,利用Pearson相关分析、主成分分析、冗余分析等方法分析林分结构(叶面积指数、混交度、大小比数、竞争指数等)对水文效应(冠层截留率、穿透雨率、树干茎流率)的影响。研究期间(6—10月)林外降雨总量1008.4 mm,林冠截留量、穿透雨量和树干茎流量分别占总降雨的16.3%、82.3%和1.4%。Pearson相关分析结果表明:叶面积指数、胸高断面积、冠幅面积与冠层截留率呈显著正相关(P0.05),与穿透雨率呈显著负相关(P0.05),树干茎流率与树高、冠层厚度呈显著负相关(P0.05),与叶面积指数、林分密度呈显著正相关(P0.05);冗余分析结果表明:水文效应的再分配特征能被结构变量组合解释59.6%,蒙特卡罗置换检验结果表明:冠层截留率和穿透雨率主要受蓄积量这类结构组合变量的影响,蓄积量越大,冠层截留率越高,穿透雨率越低,树干茎流率主要受林分竞争状况及水平结构(R~2=0.46,P0.05)和蓄积量(R~2=0.51,P0.05)的影响。林分结构与冠层水文效应密切相关,林分生长状况越好,蓄积量越大,马尾松林涵养水源效果越好。     

Sensitivity analysis of Repast computational ecology models with R/Repast

Computational ecology is an emerging interdisciplinary discipline founded mainly on modeling and simulation methods for studying ecological systems. Among the existing modeling formalisms, the individual‐based modeling is particularly well suited for capturing the complex temporal and spatial dynamics as well as the nonlinearities arising in ecosystems, communities, or populations due to individual variability. In addition, being a bottom‐up approach, it is useful for providing new insights on the local mechanisms which are generating some observed global dynamics. Of course, no conclusions about model results could be taken seriously if they are based on a single model execution and they are not analyzed carefully. Therefore, a sound methodology should always be used for underpinning the interpretation of model results. The sensitivity analysis is a methodology for quantitatively assessing the effect of input uncertainty in the simulation output which should be incorporated compulsorily to every work based on in‐silico experimental setup. In this article, we present R/Repast a GNU R package for running and analyzing Repast Simphony models accompanied by two worked examples on how to perform global sensitivity analysis and how to interpret the results.     

森林-农业景观格局变化的社会-生态系统模拟模型方法进展

社会-生态系统（SES）模拟模型是景观格局分析和决策的有效工具,能表征景观格局变化的社会-生态效应及景观决策的复杂反馈机制。文献综述了森林-农业景观格局的SES模型方法进展发现：（1）多数模型对景观过程与社会经济决策的反馈关系分析不足;（2）应集成多种情景模拟和景观效应分析方法,完善现有SES模型的理论方法基础;（3）通过集成格局优化模型和自主体模型会有效改进SES模型功能,具体途径包括：集成情景-生态效应的景观格局模拟方法、完善景观决策的理论基础、加强集成模型的不确定性分析、降低模型复杂性和综合定性-定量数据等。研究结果有助于理解多尺度森林-农业景观格局在社会-生态系统中的重要作用,能更好地支持跨学科集成模型开发与应用。     

A network approach for modeling and design of agile supply chains using a flexibility construct

Agility can be viewed as a need to encourage the enterprise-wide integration of flexible and core competent resources so as to offer value-added product and services in a volatile competitive environment. Since flexibility is considered a property that provides change capabilities of different enterprise-wide resources and processes in time and cost dimensions, supply chain flexibility can be considered a composite state to enterprise-wide resources to meet agility needs. Enterprise modeling frameworks depicting these composite flexibility states are difficult to model because of the complex and tacit interrelationship among system parameters and also because agility thrives on many business objectives. In view of this, the modeling framework presented in this paper is based on analytical network process (ANP) since this methodology can accommodate the complex and tacit interrelationship among factors affecting enterprise agility. The modeling framework forms a three-level network with the goal of attaining agility from the perspective of market, product, and customer as the actors. The goal depends on substrategies that address the characteristics of the three actors. Each of these substrategies further depends on manufacturing, logistic, sourcing, and information technology (IT) flexibility elements of the enterprise supply chain (SC). The research highlights that, under different environmental conditions, enterprises require synergy among appropriate supply chain flexibilities for practising agility. In the present research, the ANP modeling software tool Super Decisions? has been used for relative prioritization of the supply chain flexibilities. We demonstrate through sensitivity analysis that dynamic conditions do require adjustments in the enterprise-wide flexibility spectrum.     

Fostering Industrial Symbiosis With Agent-Based Simulation and Participatory Modeling

The sciences of industrial ecology, complex systems, and adaptive management are intimately related, since they deal with flows and dynamic interdependencies between system elements of various kinds. As such, the tool kit of complex systems science could enrich our understanding of how industrial ecosystems might evolve over time. In this article, I illustrate how an important tool of complex systems science— agent-based simulation —can help to identify those potential elements of an industrial ecosystem that could work together to achieve more eco-efficient outcomes. For example, I show how agent-based simulation can generate cost-efficient energy futures in which groups of firms behave more eco-efficiently by introducing strategically located clusters of renewable, low-emissions, distributed generation. I then explain how role-playing games and participatory modeling can build trust and reduce conflict about the sharing of common-pool resources such as water and energy among small clusters of evolving agents. Collective learning can encourage potential industrial partners to gradually cooperate by exchanging by-products and/or sharing common infrastructure by dint of their close proximity. This kind of coevolutionary learning, aided by participatory modeling, could help to bring about industrial symbiosis.     

陆地生态系统碳循环模型研究概述

陆地碳循环研究是全球变化研究中的一个重要组成部分,而碳循环模型已成为目前研究陆地碳循环的必要手段.本文针对有关碳循环研究方面的进展,介绍了陆地碳循环模型的基本结构、碳循环过程中涉及的两个基本模型以及目前陆地生态系统碳循环模型的两大类型,并通过对现有主要陆地生态系统碳收支模式的分析,指出了未来陆地碳循环模型的研究方向可能是发展基于动态植被的生物物理模型.这种耦合模型也可能是地球系统模式的重要组成部分.     

A novel modeling approach for the “end-to-end” analysis of marine ecosystems

There is a growing demand for “end-to-end” models, which are modeling tools used to analyze and understand the fundamental complexities of marine ecosystems and processes emerging from the interaction of individuals from different trophic groups with respect to the physical environment and, even, human activity. These models are valuable quantitative tools for ecosystem-based management. To explore potential answers to complex questions regarding ecosystems using these models, it is necessary to incorporate classical ontogenic changes through the life cycle of target individuals, in addition to inherited behavioral strategies, as an additional differentiating aspect, particularly when the behavior has a direct impact on the ecosystem phenomena under study. However, it is difficult to combine different fine scale time and spatial granularities to infer animal behavior and ontogenic development. This complexity has kept these two levels of analysis separated, because most current tools do not have the required computational resources and advanced software architecture. To address this issue, we propose an individual-based modeling framework that is capable of handling and unifying the two experimental categories with a comprehensive biological and behavioral model that strictly adheres to the physiological functions of ingestion, growth, and metabolism of organisms. In addition, this model incorporates the exchange and transfer of mass and energy through local interactions at all trophic levels (lower to higher), the physical environment, and anthropogenic activity. For the framework to model short time events, such as classical predator–prey interactions, while also generating long-term ecosystem emergent properties, a special interleaving scheduling engine and physical space computer model was devised, which optimizes memory and processing resources. The framework was tested through several experiments with a three-population ecosystem containing up to 40 thousand organisms evolving inside a 200,000 m² simulation environment during 12,000 model-hours; yet, requiring only a few hours of program execution on a regular personal computer. The model included various environmental physical elements, such as several hundred shelters, the number of which can be easily modified in each experiment to simulate substrate degradation and its impact on populations. With the aid of the quantitative and qualitative tools provided by the model, it was possible to observe a coupling between prey and predator population dynamics. In conclusion, we confirmed that the end-to-end model developed here could successfully generate detailed specific hypotheses about fish behavior and quantify impacts on population dynamics.     

森林生态系统碳循环动态仿真系统的设计

模型方法是森林碳循环研究的有力工具.在Simulink环境下设计开发了通用的森林生态系统碳循环动态仿真系统FORCASS,从仿真系统的模式框架、设计方案和开发过程方面进行综合分析表明,FORCASS具有可行性.该仿真系统具有如下特点：1）将森林生态系统划分为植被碳库、枯落物碳库、土壤碳库和动物碳库4个分室,考虑了众多碳流转移项,具有较高的机理性和解释性;2）仿真系统基于过程,以植被器官生物量碳储量Richards生长方程为驱动项,带入差分方程组进行计算,可操作性高,能够实现林龄变化下的植被净第一性生产力（NPP）、净生态系统生产力（NEP）等多种输出;3）仿真系统基于通用的碳循环模式框架建立,可扩展性能良好.     

Integrating trait‐based empirical and modeling research to improve ecological restoration

A global ecological restoration agenda has led to ambitious programs in environmental policy to mitigate declines in biodiversity and ecosystem services. Current restoration programs can incompletely return desired ecosystem service levels, while resilience of restored ecosystems to future threats is unknown. It is therefore essential to advance understanding and better utilize knowledge from ecological literature in restoration approaches. We identified an incomplete linkage between global change ecology, ecosystem function research, and restoration ecology. This gap impedes a full understanding of the interactive effects of changing environmental factors on the long‐term provision of ecosystem functions and a quantification of trade‐offs and synergies among multiple services. Approaches that account for the effects of multiple changing factors on the composition of plant traits and their direct and indirect impact on the provision of ecosystem functions and services can close this gap. However, studies on this multilayered relationship are currently missing. We therefore propose an integrated restoration agenda complementing trait‐based empirical studies with simulation modeling. We introduce an ongoing case study to demonstrate how this framework could allow systematic assessment of the impacts of interacting environmental factors on long‐term service provisioning. Our proposed agenda will benefit restoration programs by suggesting plant species compositions with specific traits that maximize the supply of multiple ecosystem services in the long term. Once the suggested compositions have been implemented in actual restoration projects, these assemblages should be monitored to assess whether they are resilient as well as to improve model parameterization. Additionally, the integration of empirical and simulation modeling research can improve global outcomes by raising the awareness of which restoration goals can be achieved, due to the quantification of trade‐offs and synergies among ecosystem services under a wide range of environmental conditions.     

The developing framework of marine ecotoxicology: Pollutants as a variable in marine ecosystems?

Marine ecosystems include a subset in which at least some interrelated geochemical, biochemical, physiological, population and community characteristics are changed by pollutants. Moderate contamination is relatively widespread in coastal and estuarine ecosystems, so the subset of ecosystems with at least some processes affected could be relatively large. Pollutant influences have changed and will probably continue to change on time scales of decades. Biological exposures and dose in such ecosystems are species-specific and determined by how the species is exposed to different environmental media and the geochemistry of individual pollutants within those media. Bioaccumulation models offer significant promise for interpreting such exposures. Biological responses to pollutants need to be more directly linked to exposure and dose. At the level of the individual this might be improved by better understanding relationships between tissue concentrations of pollutants and responses to pollutants. Multi-discipline field and laboratory studies combined with advanced understanding of some basic processes have reduced the ambiguities in interpreting a few physiological/organismic responses to pollutants in nature. Recognition of pollutant-induced patterns in population responses could lead to similar advances. A rational framework for ecotoxicology is developing, but its further advance is dependent upon better integration of ecotoxicology with basic marine ecology and biology.