中国北方农牧交错带优化生态-生产范式体系构建

中国北方农牧交错带的生态、生产双重功能决定了其在国民经济发展中的重要战略地位.将系统工程方法论引入对农牧交错带的研究中,构建典型区域内优化的生态-生产范式体系.在建立自然环境要素、生物群落特征、生产与经济以及社会文化和历史变迁四大基本数据库的基础上确定范式体系并设计框架;之后以数学模型和方法为手段分析范式所涉及的植被和其所处的自然、社会环境以及经济等各因素的相互作用的过程和格局及其对区域的贡献,包括对前人工作的综合集成;最终以各种遥感图件、地形图等为基础给出不同范式点的剖面结构图、规划图及说明,设计综合的评价指标体系对范式的可行性、科学性等进行评价择优,为决策者提供优化的生态-生产范式,也就是生态保育阈值内最优的的土地利用格局.最后,给出了农牧交错带内选取的3个范式点的剖面图,建立了范式的初步框架.     

多功能农业景观:内涵、进展与研究范式

多功能农业景观是景观尺度下农业多功能性的空间表征，具有生物多样性保护、田园风光留存和地域文化传承等多种重要的非经济功能。构建多功能农业景观是促进区域农业可持续发展与人类福祉提升的重要途径，同时也是多学科交叉的综合性研究。在已有景观生态学研究范式的基础上，探讨了多功能农业景观的内涵和国内外相关研究进展，并提出了"格局-功能-需求-管理"的多功能农业景观研究范式。与此同时，绘制了新研究范式的概念框架，通过划分四大研究模块具体分析了如何基于新研究范式开展多功能农业景观的构建、评价和管理等工作。本研究为实现区域农业景观的可持续发展和阐明多功能农业景观的内在运行机制奠定理论基础提供支持，为乡村生态景观营造关键问题的解决与多功能农业景观的实际构建提供帮助。     

中国北方农牧交错带优化生态—生产范式体系构建

中国北方农牧交错带的生态、生产双重功能决定了其在国民经济发展中的重要战略地位。将系统工程方法论引入对农牧交错带的研究中,构建典型区域内优化的生态．生产范式体系。在建立自然环境要素、生物群落特征、生产与经济以及社会文化和历史变迁四大基本数据库的基础上确定范式体系并设计框架;之后以数学模型和方法为手段分析范式所涉及的植被和其所处的自然、社会环境以及经济等各因素的相互作用的过程和格局及其对区域的贡献,包括对前人工作的综合集成;最终以各种遥感图件、地形图等为基础给出不同范式点的剖面结构图、规划图及说明,设计综合的评价指标体系对范式的可行性、科学性等进行评价择优,为决策者提供优化的生态一生产范式,也就是生态保育阈值内最优的的土地利用格局。最后,给出了农牧交错带内选取的3个范式点的剖面图,建立了范式的初步框架。     

基于暴露度-恢复力-敏感度的城市适应气候变化能力评估与特征分析

城市是人口和社会经济活动最密集的地方,随着城市化进程和气候变化的发展,城市地区面临的气候风险和影响日益凸显。提升城市适应气候变化能力已成为城市应对气候变化挑战最重要的任务和途径。通过梳理和评价我国城市适应气候变化能力及其关键要素,以期为区域适应政策的制定和实施提供科学依据。基于IPCC适应能力评价框架,构建了基于暴露度-敏感度-恢复力的城市适应气候变化能力评估框架,进而筛选了19项指标,将指标划分为适应气候变化能力对应的5个等级,以熵权法赋权重;采用集对分析方法,评估我国286个地级市的适应气候变化能力水平,并分析了主要限制因素。结果显示,我国东部的适应能力整体高于西部地区,适应能力较低的区域主要集中在西北的甘肃陕西部分城市、华中的两湖和江西等城市以及西南的广西云南等城市;城市适应能力的各项限制要素主要表现为,适应能力高主要为暴露度-恢复力-敏感度的(低-高-低)的组合;适应能力低则分别包括暴露度-恢复力-敏感度(高-高-高)、(低-低-低)和(高-低-低)3种组合。提高城市适应气候变化能力,对西部西北的甘肃-陕西等城市,重点在于提升应对气候变化的恢复力,例如建立良好的灾后恢复与应急系统等;对于华中、西南等城市则以提高气候风险的防御能力为主。     

共同生产理论视角下生态系统服务级联框架的重构

随着生态系统服务研究范式转向,重新审视生态系统服务级联框架这一研究工具具有重要理论与现实意义。论文引入共同生产理论视角,运用归纳演绎法、逻辑推演法和比较分析法,提出生态系统服务级联框架重构思路。研究认为:(1)人的主体性关照是生态系统服务研究范式转向的重要特征,级联框架中人类活动反向作用于生态系统服务的关键性级联关系缺失;(2)公众参与是级联框架不可或缺的因素,学术界对此的认知在不断深化,但缺乏系统理论指导,需要深度公众参与理论支撑;(3)共同生产理论是对传统公众参与的超越,为重构级联框架的问题求解提供了"利益相关者-生产场域-生产周期"三重关联性要素;(4)重构的级联框架蕴含"生态系统服务流-人类活动流"双向耦合关系,可以为进一步研究提供完整性、连续性、系统性的分析框架。     

面向生态监管的多等级生态功能网格概念与框架

科学有效的生态监管是落实我国生态文明建设、保障区域生态安全、实现城市可持续发展的必要途径和重要抓手。生态系统的监管涉及到社会、经济、自然等多个维度,水、土、气、生等多类要素,国家到局地等多个尺度。目前,已有生态监管常存在生态系统、生态要素、行政单元的割裂。如何整体考虑以上特征,开展科学的、系统的、空间显性的生态监管亟需理论技术的创新。通过整合等级斑块动态范式、复合生态系统理论、多功能景观理论,构建了多等级生态功能网格框架,以期为生态监管提供一个综合的概念与技术框架。等级斑块动态范式从等级作用的角度构建了多等级网格骨架,复合生态系统理论从多个维度丰富了多等级网格内涵,多功能景观理论明确了网格的功能。通过耦合多等级生态功能网格的划分、评价和监管,可实现系统、整体、差异化的生态监管,为生态文明建设提供有力支撑。     

基于景观生态学的城市人居环境代谢研究范式与研究框架建构

人居环境建设已经成为中国城市发展和当代生态学研究的新兴命题,基于物质代谢研究成果,系统剖析城市人居环境问题,提升城市化过程的生态文明水准成为推动新型城市化发展的重要路径选择。通过对人居环境视角和社会代谢视角的城市研究进行简要回顾,认为两种视角的有机整合可以弥补各自的理论和方法论缺陷,进而凝练出新的城市生态学研究思路。利用景观生态学理论和概念体系,建构了多层次、多维度的城市人居环境代谢研究范式和基本研究框架。这一范式可以从多尺度和多维度反映城市人居环境代谢的过程特征,厘清城市人为活动和各种资源环境问题的关联关系,整合多学科的知识和技术手段,解析城市人居环境的时空动态演化过程及其驱动机制,为城市人居环境研究学科的发展创造有利条件。通过建构基于景观生态学的城市人居环境物质能量代谢研究框架,还可以有效推进城市人居环境物质能量代谢中的格局-过程-尺度耦合问题,数据采集、储存与分析问题和效应调控与过程管理问题的研究,对于完善城市代谢研究方法,促进城市人居环境建设具有重要的参考和借鉴意义。     

自然保护区气候变化风险及其评估——以达里诺尔国家级自然保护区为例

从基于风险管理应对气候变化的基本理论框架和气候变化对我国自然保护区管理的挑战出发,明确了自然保护区气候变化风险的涵义,并以达里诺尔自然保护区鸟类及其赖以生存的水体、草地、林地、沼泽地生境为研究对象,对达里诺尔自然保护区气候变化风险及其变化趋势进行评估和预测.结果表明: 1997—2010年,达里诺尔自然保护区及其水体、草地、林地、沼泽地生境的气候变化风险均呈明显的波动性变化趋势,1999、2001、2005、2008年保护区及其4类生境和2002、2004年沼泽地生境均处于风险状态;与2010年相比,情景A、B、C下2020、2030年保护区及其4类生境的气候变化风险均有所增强;各类生境的气候变化风险存在显著差异,其中,沼泽地生境的气候变化风险较为突出,与其对气候变化的敏感性和丰富的鸟类分布密切相关;人类对水资源、草地资源的过度利用会加剧气候变化对自然保护区的不利影响及其对应的生态风险.总体上,气候变化风险在达里诺尔自然保护区已经显现,气候变化风险管理有助于保持并增强自然保护区的生物多样性保护功能.     

气候变化背景下青海省三江源地区游憩功能格局演变

在气候变化背景下,青海三江源地区游憩功能格局发生改变。综合运用PC （Pairwise Comparison）法、AHP （Analytic Hierarchy Process）、指标模型、相关分析等方法,构建三江源地区游憩功能评价框架,研究1978-2012年三江源地区3类游憩功能格局的演变,以及这种演变与气候变化之间的关联。研究表明：（1）气候条件、独特景观、植被条件、地表覆被与地形条件等要素影响着三江源地区游憩功能的形成,不同要素在美感、参与机会与适宜环境3类游憩功能形成过程中发挥的作用不同,且具有非线性贡献;（2）三江源地区的美感功能较强,其次是参与机会功能,而适宜环境功能较弱;（3）气候变化在不同程度上改变了三江源地区的3类游憩功能,其中,适宜环境功能的响应最强烈,主要表现为提升;参与机会功能的响应程度最弱。该研究完善了游憩功能的理论与应用,并为气候变化背景下三江源地区旅游可持续发展决策提供参考。     

科技考古研究范式之思考

范式自20世纪60年代创立以来,已普遍使用于多个科学研究领域,并于七八十年代引入至考古学。目前,国内外学界对考古学的研究范式有不少讨论,但对科技考古的研究范式的认知仍属空白。本文在简要介绍科学研究范式和考古学研究范式的基础上,首次提出了科技考古研究的3种范式,即科技范式、考古范式、科技考古融合范式,详细阐述了3种研究范式的理论、方法、实践等。此外,本文还指出：科技范式是推动科技考古研究发展的“发动机”,考古范式是掌控科技考古研究方向的“方向盘”,而科技考古融合范式则是协调科技考古各研究领域的“中控台”,真正让科技与考古融为一体。最后,笔者还对在科技考古研究范式下如何构建研究人员的知识体系提出了一些看法。     

气候变化与生物多样性之间的复杂关系和反馈机制

气候变化与生物多样性丧失是人类社会正在经历的两大变化。气候变化影响生物多样性的方方面面, 是导致生物多样性丧失的一个主要驱动因子; 反过来, 生物多样性丧失会加剧气候变化。因此, 阻止甚至扭转气候变化和生物多样性丧失是当前人类社会亟需解决的全球性问题,但我们对气候变化与生物多样性之间的复杂关系和反馈机制尚缺乏清晰认识。本文总结了近年气候变化与生物多样性变化的研究进展, 重点概述了不同组织层次、空间尺度和维度的生物多样性对气候变化的响应和反馈等相关领域的研究进展和存在的主要问题。结果发现多数研究关注气候变化对生物多样性的直接影响, 涉及到生物多样性的不同组织层次、维度和营养级, 但针对气候变化间接影响的研究仍然较少, 机理研究同样需要加强; 生物多样性对生态系统功能影响的环境依赖和尺度推演、生物多样性对生态系统多功能性的作用机理和量化方法是当前研究面临的挑战; 生物多样性对生态系统响应气候变化的作用机制尚无统一的认识; 生物多样性对气候变化的正、负反馈效应是国内外研究的盲点。最后, 本文展望了未来发展方向和需要解决的关键科学问题, 包括多因子气候变化对生物多样性的影响; 减缓和适应气候变化的措施如何惠益于生物多样性保护; 生物多样性与生态系统功能的理论如何应用到现实世界; 生物多样性保护对实现碳中和目标的贡献。     

Economic development,climate and values: making policy

The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity.     

One option,two countries,several strategies: subjacent mechanisms of assisted migration implementation in Canada and France

Climate change obliges societies to develop adaptive strategies in order to maintain sustainable management of resources and landscapes. However, the development and implementation of these strategies require dialogue between researchers and policy‐makers about what they understand for adaptation. This dialogue can be hindered by language differences, the hidden agendas, and conflicting concerns of those involved. In this research study, we explored the mechanisms that underlie the implementation process of assisted migration (AM), an adaptation strategy that aims to limit the impact of climate change. We conducted a comparative analysis of 80 semistructured interviews with actors in the forestry sectors in Canada and France. In Canada, our results show a division between the provinces strategies, causing a debate about AM because researchers are wary of the geoengineering and economic arguments that frame AM in areas where the effects of climate change remain unclear. In contrast, we found that the observation of climate impacts is a strong trigger for the application of AM despite an awareness of its associated risks. In France, we explained the absence of AM implementation by a lack of information flow between research and foresters regarding the concept of AM, a cultural attachment of French foresters to their forest landscapes and that climate change effects are not clear yet. Clarity on what implies a true ecological engineering approach in ecological restoration can help maintaining adaptive actions like AM within the general scope of ecosystem management and minimize simplistic applications of adaptation strategies because of climate change.     

Consensus,uncertainties and challenges for perennial bioenergy crops and land use

Perennial bioenergy crops have significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to climate change mitigation by substituting for fossil fuels; yet delivering significant GHG savings will require substantial land‐use change, globally. Over the last decade, research has delivered improved understanding of the environmental benefits and risks of this transition to perennial bioenergy crops, addressing concerns that the impacts of land conversion to perennial bioenergy crops could result in increased rather than decreased GHG emissions. For policymakers to assess the most cost‐effective and sustainable options for deployment and climate change mitigation, synthesis of these studies is needed to support evidence‐based decision making. In 2015, a workshop was convened with researchers, policymakers and industry/business representatives from the UK, EU and internationally. Outcomes from global research on bioenergy land‐use change were compared to identify areas of consensus, key uncertainties, and research priorities. Here, we discuss the strength of evidence for and against six consensus statements summarising the effects of land‐use change to perennial bioenergy crops on the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and water, in the context of the whole life‐cycle of bioenergy production. Our analysis suggests that the direct impacts of dedicated perennial bioenergy crops on soil carbon and nitrous oxide are increasingly well understood and are often consistent with significant life cycle GHG mitigation from bioenergy relative to conventional energy sources. We conclude that the GHG balance of perennial bioenergy crop cultivation will often be favourable, with maximum GHG savings achieved where crops are grown on soils with low carbon stocks and conservative nutrient application, accruing additional environmental benefits such as improved water quality. The analysis reported here demonstrates there is a mature and increasingly comprehensive evidence base on the environmental benefits and risks of bioenergy cultivation which can support the development of a sustainable bioenergy industry.     

Climate change impacts and adaptive strategies: lessons from the grapevine

The cultivation of grapevines for winemaking, known as viticulture, is widely cited as a climate‐sensitive agricultural system that has been used as an indicator of both historic and contemporary climate change. Numerous studies have questioned the viability of major viticulture regions under future climate projections. We review the methods used to study the impacts of climate change on viticulture in the light of what is known about the effects of climate and weather on the yields and quality of vineyard harvests. Many potential impacts of climate change on viticulture, particularly those associated with a change in climate variability or seasonal weather patterns, are rarely captured. Key biophysical characteristics of viticulture are often unaccounted for, including the variability of grapevine phenology and the exploitation of microclimatic niches that permit successful cultivation under suboptimal macroclimatic conditions. We consider how these same biophysical characteristics permit a variety of strategies by which viticulture can adapt to changing climatic conditions. The ability to realize these strategies, however, is affected by uneven exposure to risks across the winemaking sector, and the evolving capacity for decision‐making within and across organizational boundaries. The role grape provenance plays in shaping perceptions of wine value and quality illustrates how conflicts of interest influence decisions about adaptive strategies within the industry. We conclude by considering what lessons can be taken from viticulture for studies of climate change impacts and the capacity for adaptation in other agricultural and natural systems.     

Hand in Hand: Public Endorsement of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

This research investigated how an individual’s endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that “localising” climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research.     

可持续生态学

可持续生态学系用生态学原理和方法解决自然与社会经济协调发展问题,或者说生态学不断将人类及其社会经济活动纳入研究范畴而形成的自然科学与社会科学的交叉学科。40年来,我国在可持续生态学研究和实践领域取得了丰硕的成果,一是提出了"社会-经济-自然"复合生态系统理论;二是构建了适应中国国情的可持续发展评价指标体系;三是推进实施了国家可持续发展战略,并在不同时空尺度进行了试点示范;四是将可持续发展的区域生态安全格局和生态风险管理理论与方法应用于城市与区域发展规划中,并利用生态补偿机制推进跨域的生态安全格局建设;五是为国家生态文明建设规划纲要的出台提供了重要的科学支撑,有力地推进了生态文明建设战略的实施;六是系统地研究了全球气候变化对中国生态系统的影响,科学评估了气候变化的现状、趋势及其影响,提出了气候变化的生态适应对策;七是不断推进国家和地方层面的生态省、生态市、生态县建设,创建了不同层次和规模的可持续发展实验区、国家可持续发展议程创新示范区、生态农业试点示范县、生态工业示范园区等。本文从宏观生态学与可持续发展、生态城市与可持续发展、生态产业与可持续发展三个方面评述可持续性生态学的研究进展。可持续生态学的重点研究内容随着时代发展而不断更新,生态文明建设、生态安全格局构建、落实联合国2030可持续发展目标、应对全球环境变化、新型城市化和工业化对生态系统的影响等是当前和未来一段时间的研究热点。     

Projecting climate change impacts on species distributions in megadiverse South African Cape and Southwest Australian Floristic Regions: Opportunities and challenges

Increasing evidence shows that anthropogenic climate change is affecting biodiversity. Reducing or stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions may slow global warming, but past emissions will continue to contribute to further unavoidable warming for more than a century. With obvious signs of difficulties in achieving effective mitigation worldwide in the short term at least, sound scientific predictions of future impacts on biodiversity will be required to guide conservation planning and adaptation. This is especially true in Mediterranean type ecosystems that are projected to be among the most significantly affected by anthropogenic climate change, and show the highest levels of confidence in rainfall projections. Multiple methods are available for projecting the consequences of climate change on the main unit of interest – the species – with each method having strengths and weaknesses. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied for forecasting climate change impacts on species geographic ranges. Aggregation of models for different species allows inferences of impacts on biodiversity, though excluding the effects of species interactions. The modelling approach is based on several further assumptions and projections and should be treated cautiously. In the absence of comparable approaches that address large numbers of species, SDMs remain valuable in estimating the vulnerability of species. In this review we discuss the application of SDMs in predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with special reference to the species‐rich South West Australian Floristic Region and South African Cape Floristic Region. We discuss the advantages and challenges in applying SDMs in biodiverse regions with high levels of endemicity, and how a similar biogeographical history in both regions may assist us in understanding their vulnerability to climate change. We suggest how the process of predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with SDMs can be improved and emphasize the role of field monitoring and experiments in validating the predictions of SDMs.     

Climate change hastens the conservation urgency of an endangered ungulate

Global climate change appears to be one of the main threats to biodiversity in the near future and is already affecting the distribution of many species. Currently threatened species are a special concern while the extent to which they are sensitive to climate change remains uncertain. Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) is classified as endangered and a conservation focus on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Using measures of species range shift, we explored how the distribution of Przewalski's gazelle may be impacted by projected climate change based on a maximum entropy approach. We also evaluated the uncertainty in the projections of the risks arising from climate change. Modeling predicted the Przewalski's gazelle would be sensitive to future climate change. As the time horizon increased, the strength of effects from climate change increased. Even assuming unlimited dispersal capacity of gazelles, a moderate decrease to complete loss of range was projected by 2080 under different thresholds for transforming the probability prediction to presence/absence data. Current localities of gazelles will undergo a decrease in their occurrence probability. Projections of the impacts of climate change were significantly affected by thresholds and general circulation models. This study suggests climate change clearly poses a severe threat and increases the extinction risk to Przewalski's gazelle. Our findings 1) confirm that endangered endemic species is highly vulnerable to climate change and 2) highlight the fact that forecasting impacts of climate change needs an assessment of the uncertainty. It is extremely important that conservation strategies consider the predicted geographical shifts and be planned with full knowledge of the reliability of projected impacts of climate change.