Including climate change in pest risk assessment: the peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) is one of the most harmful species of Tephritidae. It causes extensive damage in Asia and threatens many countries located along or near the Mediterranean Sea. The climate mapping program, CLIMEX 3.0, and the GIS software, ArcGIS 9.3, were used to model the current and future potential geographical distribution of B. zonata. The model predicts that, under current climatic conditions, B. zonata will be able to establish itself throughout much of the tropics and subtropics, including some parts of the USA, southern China, southeastern Australia and northern New Zealand. Climate change scenarios for the 2070s indicate that the potential distribution of B. zonata will expand poleward into areas which are currently too cold. The main factors limiting the pest's range expansion are cold, hot and dry stress. The model's predictions of the numbers of generations produced annually by B. zonata were consistent with values previously recorded for the pest's occurrence in Egypt. The ROC curve and the AUC (an AUC of 0.912) were obtained to evaluate the performance of the CLIMEX model in this study. The analysis of this information indicated a high degree of accuracy for the CLIMEX model. The significant increases in the potential distribution of B. zonata projected under the climate change scenarios considered in this study suggest that biosecurity authorities should consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. To prevent the introduction and spread of B. zonata, enhanced quarantine and monitoring measures should be implemented in areas that are projected to be suitable for the establishment of the pest under current and future climatic conditions.     

The current and future potential geographic range of West Indian fruit fly,Anastrepha obliqua （Diptera： Tephritidae）

The West Indian fruit fly, Anastrepha obliqua （Macquart）, is one of the most important pests throughout the Americas. CLIMEX 3.0 and ArcGIS 9.3 were used to model the current and future potential geographical distribution of this pest. Under current climatic conditions, A. obliqua is predicted to be able to establish throughout much of the tropics and subtropics, including not only North and South America, where it has been reported, but also southern Asia, northeastern Australia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The main factors limiting the pest＇s range expansion may be cold stress. Climate change expands the potential distribution of A. obliqua poleward as cold stress boundaries recede, but the predicted distribution in northwestern Australia and northern parts of Sub-Saharan Africa will decrease because of heat stress. Considering the widely suitable range for A. obliqua globally and in China, enhanced quarantine and monitoring measures should be implemented in areas that are projected to be suitable for the establishment of the pest under current and future climatic conditions.     

The Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Agricultural Pests: The Case of the Coffee White Stem Borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe

The production of agricultural commodities faces increased risk of pests, diseases and other stresses due to climate change and variability. This study assesses the potential distribution of agricultural pests under projected climatic scenarios using evidence from the African coffee white stem borer (CWB), Monochamus leuconotus (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), an important pest of coffee in Zimbabwe. A species distribution modeling approach utilising Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) was applied on current and projected climate data obtained from the WorldClim database and occurrence data (presence and absence) collected through on-farm biological surveys in Chipinge, Chimanimani, Mutare and Mutasa districts in Zimbabwe. Results from both the BRT and GLM indicate that precipitation-related variables are more important in determining species range for the CWB than temperature related variables. The CWB has extensive potential habitats in all coffee areas with Mutasa district having the largest model average area suitable for CWB under current and projected climatic conditions. Habitat ranges for CWB will increase under future climate scenarios for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutare districts while it will decrease in Mutasa district. The highest percentage change in area suitable for the CWB was for Chimanimani district with a model average of 49.1% (3 906 ha) increase in CWB range by 2080. The BRT and GLM predictions gave similar predicted ranges for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutasa districts compared to the high variation in current and projected habitat area for CWB in Mutare district. The study concludes that suitable area for CWB will increase significantly in Zimbabwe due to climate change and there is need to develop adaptation mechanisms.     

未来气候变化对不同国家茶适宜分布区的影响

茶是对气候变化敏感的重要经济作物, 评价全球气候变化对茶分布和生产的影响对相关国家经济发展和茶农的生计至关重要。本研究基于全球858个茶分布点和6个气候因子数据, 利用物种分布模型预测全球茶的潜在适宜分布区及其在2070年的不同温室气体排放情景(RCP2.6和RCP8.5)下的变化。结果表明: 当前茶在五大洲均有适宜分布区, 主要集中在亚洲、非洲和南美洲, 并且最冷季平均温和最暖季降水量主导了茶的分布。预计2070年, 茶的适宜分布区变化在不同的大洲、国家和气候情景间将存在差异。具体来说, 茶的适宜分布区总面积将会减少, 减少的区域主要位于低纬度地区, 而中高纬度地区的适宜分布区将扩张, 由此可能导致茶的适宜分布区向北移动; 重要的产茶国中, 阿根廷、缅甸、越南等茶适宜分布区面积会减少57.8%-95.8%, 而中国和日本的适宜分布面积则会增加2.7%-31.5%。未来全球新增的适宜分布区中, 约有68%的地区土地覆盖类型为自然植被, 因此可能导致新茶树种植园的开垦和自然植被及生物多样性保护产生冲突。     

Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change

Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee.     

The projected effects of climatic and vegetation changes on the distribution and diversity of Southeast Asian bats

Southeast‐Asia (SEA) constitutes a global biodiversity hotspot, but is exposed to extensive deforestation and faces numerous threats to its biodiversity. Climate change represents a major challenge to the survival and viability of species, and the potential consequences must be assessed to allow for mitigation. We project the effects of several climate change scenarios on bat diversity, and predict changes in range size for 171 bat species throughout SEA. We predict decreases in species richness in all areas with high species richness (>80 species) at 2050–2080, using bioclimatic IPCC scenarios A2 (a severe scenario, continuously increasing human population size, regional changes in economic growth) and B1 (the ‘greenest’ scenario, global population peaking mid‐century). We also predicted changes in species richness in scenarios that project vegetation changes in addition to climate change up to 2050. At 2050 and 2080, A2 and B1 scenarios incorporating changes in climatic factors predicted that 3–9% species would lose all currently suitable niche space. When considering total extents of species distribution in SEA (including possible range expansions), 2–6% of species may have no suitable niche space in 2050–2080. When potential vegetation and climate changes were combined only 1% of species showed no changes in their predicted ranges by 2050. Although some species are projected to expand ranges, this may be ecologically impossible due to potential barriers to dispersal, especially for species with poor dispersal ability. Only 1–13% of species showed no projected reductions in their current range under bioclimatic scenarios. An effective way to facilitate range shift for dispersal‐limited species is to improve landscape connectivity. If current trends in environmental change continue and species cannot expand their ranges into new areas, then the majority of bat species in SEA may show decreases in range size and increased extinction risk within the next century.     

Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Sinopodophyllum hexandrum under climate change

桃儿七(Sinopodophyllum hexandrum)为小檗科多年生草本植物, 是我国濒危传统藏药, 预测气候变化对该物种分布范围的影响对于其保护和资源可持续利用具有重要意义。该文利用获得的桃儿七136个地理分布记录和21个气候环境图层, 通过MaxEnt模型分析桃儿七在我国西部七省的潜在地理分布, 并基于该模型预测政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的SRES-A1B、SRES-A2和SRES-B1气候情景下21世纪20、50和80年代桃儿七分布范围。结果表明: 最热季平均温度、年降水量、温度季节性变动系数和等温性是影响桃儿七分布的主要气候因子; 在当前气候条件下, 桃儿七适宜的生境面积占研究区总面积的11.71%, 主要集中在青藏高原东缘的四川、甘肃、青海境内次生植被丰富、地形复杂的高海拔地区, 低适宜生境与不适宜生境分别占研究区总面积的15.86%与72.43%。由模型预测可知, 在SRES-A1B、SRES-A2和SRES-B1三种情景下, 桃儿七在研究区低适宜生境的数量相对变化较小, 在适宜生境先大幅减少后又缓慢增加。研究结果同时表明, 在未来气候变化条件下, 桃儿七的适宜生境平均海拔将逐渐升高, 范围以及几何重心极有可能先向北移, 然后再向西延伸至青藏高原内部较高海拔的山区。     

Climate warming effects on the Olea europaea–Bactrocera oleae system in Mediterranean islands: Sardinia as an example

Global warming will affect all species but in largely unknown ways, with certain regions such as the Mediterranean Basin and its major islands including Sardinia being particularly vulnerable to desertification. Olive ( Olea europaea ) is of eco-social importance in the Mediterranean where it was domesticated. This drought-resistant crop and its major pest, the olive fly ( Bactrocera oleae ), have tight biological links that make them a suitable model system for climate change studies in the Mediterranean. Here a physiologically based weather-driven demographic model of olive and olive fly is used to analyze in detail this plant–pest system in Sardinia under observed weather (10 years of daily data from 48 locations), three climate warming scenarios (increases of 1, 2 and 3 °C in average daily temperature), and a 105-year climate model scenario for the Alghero location (e.g. 1951–2055). grass gis is used to map model predictions of olive bloom dates and yield, total season-long olive fly pupae, and percent fruit attacked by the fly. Island wide simulation data are summarized using multivariate regression. Model calibration with field bloom date data were performed to increase simulation accuracy of olive flowering predictions under climate change. As climate warms, the range of olive is predicted to expand to higher altitudes and consolidate elsewhere, especially in coastal areas. The range of olive fly will extend into previously unfavorable cold areas, but will contract in warm inland lowlands where temperatures approach its upper thermal limits. Consequently, many areas of current high risk are predicted to have decreased risk of fly damage with climate warming. Simulation using a 105-year climate model scenario for Alghero, Sardinia predicts changes in the olive–olive fly system expected to occur if climate continued to warm at the low rate observed during in the past half century.     

气候变化下桃儿七潜在地理分布的预测

桃儿七(Sinopodophyllum hexandrum)为小檗科多年生草本植物, 是我国濒危传统藏药, 预测气候变化对该物种分布范围的影响对于其保护和资源可持续利用具有重要意义。该文利用获得的桃儿七136个地理分布记录和21个气候环境图层, 通过MaxEnt模型分析桃儿七在我国西部七省的潜在地理分布, 并基于该模型预测政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的SRES-A1B、SRES-A2和SRES-B1气候情景下21世纪20、50和80年代桃儿七分布范围。结果表明: 最热季平均温度、年降水量、温度季节性变动系数和等温性是影响桃儿七分布的主要气候因子; 在当前气候条件下, 桃儿七适宜的生境面积占研究区总面积的11.71%, 主要集中在青藏高原东缘的四川、甘肃、青海境内次生植被丰富、地形复杂的高海拔地区, 低适宜生境与不适宜生境分别占研究区总面积的15.86%与72.43%。由模型预测可知, 在SRES-A1B、SRES-A2和SRES-B1三种情景下, 桃儿七在研究区低适宜生境的数量相对变化较小, 在适宜生境先大幅减少后又缓慢增加。研究结果同时表明, 在未来气候变化条件下, 桃儿七的适宜生境平均海拔将逐渐升高, 范围以及几何重心极有可能先向北移, 然后再向西延伸至青藏高原内部较高海拔的山区。     

基于CLIMEX的桔小实蝇在中国适生区的预测

桔小实蝇Bactroceradorsalis(Hendel),属双翅目Diptera,果实蝇科Tetriphitidae,主要分布在热带和亚热带地区。温度和湿度是影响桔小实蝇分布的重要气候因子。根据桔小实蝇对温湿度等气候因子的反应,采用CLIMEX软件对桔小实蝇在中国大陆的适生区进行了预测。设置了CLIMEX中的相应参数17个:发育起点温度DV0、生长最适宜温度范围DV1～DV2、致死高温DV3、有效发育积温PDD。生长发育所需最低土壤湿度临界SM0、最适宜湿度范围SM1～SM2、最高土壤湿度临界SM3。冷胁迫日度临界DTCS及其积累速率DHCS,热胁迫临界温度TTHS及其积累速率THHS,干旱胁迫临界SMDS及其积累速率HDS,湿胁迫SMWS及其积累速率HWS。以印度和夏威夷为已知适生分布区,反复调试修正上述这些参数值,使之与已知广泛分布的地区达到最大程度的吻合。然后用优化后的参数和中国大陆85个气象站点的气象资料模拟桔小实蝇在中国大陆的适生分布,结果显示:广东、海南、香港、广西、四川、云南、湖南、湖北、福建、江西、浙江等11个省(区)是桔小实蝇的适生分布区。主要分布在我国的华南和西南大部分地区,以及华中和华东的部分地区。根据CLIMEX模拟结果的EI值大小,将桔小实蝇在我国大陆的适生分布情况进一步划分为最适宜、次适宜、适宜和非适宜4个气候区,即华南地区全部以及广西省全境是桔小实蝇的最适宜分布区,除桂林(EI=17)外,其余气象点的EI值均大于40;西南地区的四川、云南两省及福建沿海地区是桔小实蝇的次适宜分布区,平均EI值为29.7;适宜分布区包括湖南、湖北、江西、浙江的少数地区,除赣州(EI=17)外,其余点的EI值均小于10;长江以北的广大地区是桔小实蝇的非适宜区,这些地区不适合桔小实蝇生存。     

Distribution models for Ascia monuste and the host Brassica oleracea var. capitata

The butterfly Ascia monuste L. (Lepidoptera: Pieridae) is a specialist pest of brassica crops in neotropical regions where it significantly impacts crop production. Understanding the actual and potential distribution of the pest and its hosts in current and future climates may help government agencies to mitigate and manage potential incursions. Here, we use MaxEnt algorithm to model the current distribution of both A. monuste and its host, Brassica oleracea var. capitata L. (cabbage) and then model the likely impact of projected climate change (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios) on their potential future distributions. While A. monuste is currently restricted to the American continent, we show that under current conditions the potential distribution of both the butterfly and cabbage includes areas of Africa, Asia, Oceania and Europe to some extent. The annual temperature range and mean annual temperature were the strongest predictors of the distribution of both species. Under a projected climate change scenario, suitable areas in the tropical climate zone are expected to decrease for both species. However, in temperate regions, the suitable area for cabbage is expected to increase but will remain unsuitable for the pest. Our results highlight the need for strategies to prevent the introduction of A. monuste to other areas of the tropical climate zone and for the development of management practices in the neotropical region.     

Climate Change Impacts on the Future Distribution of Date Palms: A Modeling Exercise Using CLIMEX

Climate is changing and, as a consequence, some areas that are climatically suitable for date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) cultivation at the present time will become unsuitable in the future. In contrast, some areas that are unsuitable under the current climate will become suitable in the future. Consequently, countries that are dependent on date fruit export will experience economic decline, while other countries’ economies could improve. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this economically important crop under current and future climate scenarios will be useful in planning better strategies to manage such issues. This study used CLIMEX to estimate potential date palm distribution under current and future climate models by using one emission scenario (A2) with two different global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR). The results indicate that in North Africa, many areas with a suitable climate for this species are projected to become climatically unsuitable by 2100. In North and South America, locations such as south-eastern Bolivia and northern Venezuela will become climatically more suitable. By 2070, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and western Iran are projected to have a reduction in climate suitability. The results indicate that cold and dry stresses will play an important role in date palm distribution in the future. These results can inform strategic planning by government and agricultural organizations by identifying new areas in which to cultivate this economically important crop in the future and those areas that will need greater attention due to becoming marginal regions for continued date palm cultivation.     

Phenotypic correlates of potential range size and range filling in European trees

Understanding the biological correlates of range sizes in plant species is important to predict the response of species to climate change. We used climate envelope models to estimate species’ potential range size and range filling for 48 European tree species. We hypothesized that potential range size relates to the climatic tolerances of plant species, and that the degree of range filling is influenced by species dispersal. We tested these hypotheses using, for each species, estimates for tolerance to cold and drought, type of dispersal, fruit size and seed size. Consistent with previous observations, we found that both the size of potential ranges and range filling increase from south to north. Species tolerance to temperature and water stress, as well as their dispersal-related traits also showed marked spatial patterns. There was, moreover, a significant positive partial correlation between cold tolerance and potential range size, when drought tolerance was partialed out, and a non-significant partial correlation between drought tolerance and potential range size, with cold tolerance partialed out. Range filling was not significantly larger in species dispersed by wind than in those dispersed by animals. There was a negative correlation between seed mass and range filling, but its statistical significance varied across different subsets of species and climate envelope algorithms; the correlation between fruit length and range filling was not significant. We conclude that climatic tolerances and dispersal traits influence species range size and range filling, and thus affect the range dynamics of species in response to global change. Using traits will therefore help to predict future distribution of species under climate change.     

Research Symposium—Aberdeen

ABSTRACT

Background: Climate change may increase the risk of biological invasions. However, current knowledge of this interaction is limited.

Aims: We aimed to quantify (1) the effect of climate change on the potential distribution of invasive plant species in Spain, (2) the importance of the area of origin of such species and (3) the vulnerability of different biogeographic provinces to future changes in climatic suitability for invaders.

Methods: We applied six methods of species distribution modelling to assess the variation of climatically suitable areas for 40 alien plants. We developed a Potential Area Change Index and used it as the response variable in modelling for three future emissions scenarios and three global circulation models over three time periods. The area of origin and biogeographic province in Spain were also considered.

Results: We found a highly specific response for each plant species rather than a clear trend for the entire set of species. Predicted climate suitability increased over higher emission scenarios and longer projected time lags. Neotropical species showed the greatest potential climatic range expansion. We detected a strong interaction between the geographic origin of a species and the biogeographic province.

Conclusions: Special attention should be given to the areas where aridification of climate is projected and where introduced neotropical species are likely to expand their range. Future work should develop accurate species-specific approaches that allow the management invasive plant species.     

Land suitability for energy crops under scenarios of climate change and land‐use

Bioenergy is expected to play a critical role in climate change mitigation. Most integrated assessment models assume an expansion of agricultural land for cultivation of energy crops. This study examines the suitability of land for growing a range of energy crops on areas that are not required for food production, accounting for climate change impacts and conservation requirements. A global fuzzy logic model is employed to ascertain the suitable cropping areas for a number of sugar, starch and oil crops, energy grasses and short rotation tree species that could be grown specifically for energy. Two climate change scenarios are modelled (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), along with two scenarios representing the land which cannot be used for energy crops due to forest and biodiversity conservation, food agriculture and urban areas. Results indicate that 40% of the global area currently suitable for energy crops overlaps with food land and 31% overlaps with forested or protected areas, highlighting hotspots of potential land competition risks. Approximately 18.8 million km² is suitable for energy crops, to some degree, and does not overlap with protected, forested, urban or food agricultural land. Under the climate change scenario RCP8.5, this increases to 19.6 million km² by the end of the century. Broadly, climate change is projected to decrease suitable areas in southern regions and increase them in northern regions, most notably for grass crops in Russia and China, indicating that potential production areas will shift northwards which could potentially affect domestic use and trade of biomass significantly. The majority of the land which becomes suitable is in current grasslands and is just marginally or moderately suitable. This study therefore highlights the vital importance of further studies examining the carbon and ecosystem balance of this potential land‐use change, energy crop yields in sub‐optimal soil and climatic conditions and potential impacts on livelihoods.     

Global warming promotes biological invasion of a honey bee pest

Climate change and biological invasions are two major global environmental challenges. Both may interact, e.g. via altered impact and distribution of invasive alien species. Even though invasive species play a key role for compromising the health of honey bees, the impact of climate change on the severity of such species is still unknown. The small hive beetle (SHB, Aethina tumida, Murray) is a parasite of honey bee colonies. It is endemic to sub‐Saharan Africa and has established populations on all continents except Antarctica. Since SHBs pupate in soil, pupation performance is governed foremost by two abiotic factors, soil temperature and moisture, which will be affected by climate change. Here, we investigated SHB invasion risk globally under current and future climate scenarios. We modelled survival and development time during pupation (=pupal performance) in response to soil temperature and soil moisture using published and novel experimental data. Presence data on SHB distribution were used for model validation. We then linked the model with global soil data in order to classify areas (resolution: 10 arcmin; i.e. 18.6 km at the equator) as unsuitable, marginal and suitable for SHB pupation performance. Under the current climate, the results show that many areas globally yet uninvaded are actually suitable, suggesting considerable SHB invasion risk. Future scenarios of global warming project a vehement increase in climatic suitability for SHB and corresponding potential for invasion, especially in the temperate regions of the Northern hemisphere, thereby creating demand for enhanced and adapted mitigation and management. Our analysis shows, for the first time, effects of global warming on a honey bee pest and will help areas at risk to prepare adequately. In conclusion, this is a clear case for global warming promoting biological invasion of a pest species with severe potential to harm important pollinator species globally.     

Climate‐driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits

Understanding how climate change can affect crop‐pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present, there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, which are predicted to provide suboptimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance, choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios.     

Potential impact of climatic change on the distribution of forest herbs in Europe

The aim of this study is to evaluate the possible consequences of climate change on a representative sample of forest herbs in Europe. A fuzzy climatic envelope was used to predict the location of suitable climatic conditions under two climatic change scenarios. Expected consequences in terms of lost and gained range size and shift in distribution for 26 forest herbs were estimated. These results were combined in an Index of Predicted Range Change for each species. Finally, the effects of habitat fragmentation for potential dispersal routes were evaluated and options for management on a European scale are discussed. Generally, a good agreement of the estimated suitability under the present climate and the observed current distribution was observed. However, species vary a lot in the degree to which they occupy the presently climatically suitable areas in Europe. Many species are absent from large areas with suitable climate and thus could be said to have poor range‐filling capacity. A general change in location (range centroid) of the total suitable area was observed: The total suitable area will on average move strongly northwards and moderately eastwards under the relatively mild B1 scenario and more strongly so under the A2 scenario. The required average minimum migration rate per year to track the potential range shift is 2.1 km under the B1 scenario and 3.9 km under the A2 scenario. Moderate losses in the total suitable area in Europe are predicted for most species under both scenarios. However, the predicted changes are very variable, with one species (Actaea erythrocarpa) experiencing total range elimination in Europe (A2 scenario) while the total suitable area is predicted to show large increases for other species. The species that are predicted to experience the greatest proportional losses in their climatically suitable area within their presently realised range tend to have northern or eastern range centroids. The Index of Predicted Range Change roughly divides the species studied in four groups: One species face a high risk of extinction; eight species are expected to experience moderate to severe threat of extinction; 11 species are not considered at risk and, finally, six species may actually benefit from global warming. An analysis of potential migration routes shows the importance of maintaining and, if possible, improving the network of forest throughout Europe to make migration possible. It is also suggested to closely monitor the status of boreal and subalpine species that are most threatened by global warming. Finally it is recommended that special concern should be given to increased protection and restoration of forest habitats in southern montane areas for their crucial long‐term importance for the maintenance of European plant diversity.     

Topographic,latitudinal and climatic distribution of Pinus coulteri: geographic range limits are not at the edge of the climate envelope

With changing climate, many species are projected to move poleward or to higher elevations to track suitable climates. The prediction that species will move poleward assumes that geographically marginal populations are at the edge of the species' climatic range. We studied Pinus coulteri from the center to the northern (poleward) edge of its range, and examined three scenarios regarding the relationship between the geographic and climatic margins of a species' range. We used herbarium and iNaturalist.org records to identify P. coulteri sites, generated a species distribution model based on temperature, precipitation, climatic water deficit, and actual evapotranspiration, and projected suitability under future climate scenarios. In fourteen populations from the central to northern portions of the range, we conducted field studies and recorded elevation, slope and aspect (to estimate solar insolation) to examine relationships between local and regional distributions. We found that northern populations of P. coulteri do not occupy the cold or wet edge of the species' climatic range; mid‐latitude, high elevation populations occupy the cold margin. Aspect and insolation of P. coulteri populations changed significantly across latitudes and elevations. Unexpectedly, northern, low‐elevation stands occupy north‐facing aspects and receive low insolation, while central, high‐elevation stands grow on more south‐facing aspects that receive higher insolation. Modeled future climate suitability is projected to be highest in the central, high elevation portion of the species range, and in low‐lying coastal regions under some scenarios, with declining suitability in northern areas under most future scenarios. For P. coulteri, the lack of high elevation habitat combined with a major dispersal barrier may limit northward movement in response to a warming climate. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of distinguishing geographically vs. climatically marginal populations, and the importance of quantitative analysis of the realized climate space to understand species range limits.     

Non-linear loss of suitable wine regions over Europe in response to increasing global warming

Evaluating the potential climatic suitability for premium wine production is crucial for adaptation planning in Europe. While new wine regions may emerge out of the traditional boundaries, most of the present-day renowned winemaking regions may be threatened by climate change. Here, we analyse the future evolution of the geography of wine production over Europe, through the definition of a novel climatic suitability indicator, which is calculated over the projected grapevine phenological phases to account for their possible contractions under global warming. Our approach consists in coupling six different de-biased downscaled climate projections under two different scenarios of global warming with four phenological models for different grapevine varieties. The resulting suitability indicator is based on fuzzy logic and is calculated over three main components measuring (i) the timing of the fruit physiological maturity, (ii) the risk of water stress and (iii) the risk of pests and diseases. The results demonstrate that the level of global warming largely determines the distribution of future wine regions. For a global temperature increase limited to 2°C above the pre-industrial level, the suitable areas over the traditional regions are reduced by about 4%/°C rise, while for higher levels of global warming, the rate of this loss increases up to 17%/°C. This is compensated by a gradual emergence of new wine regions out of the traditional boundaries. Moreover, we show that reallocating better-suited grapevine varieties to warmer conditions may be a viable adaptation measure to cope with the projected suitability loss over the traditional regions. However, the effectiveness of this strategy appears to decrease as the level of global warming increases. Overall, these findings suggest the existence of a safe limit below 2°C of global warming for the European winemaking sector, while adaptation might become far more challenging beyond this threshold.