气候变化下桃儿七潜在地理分布的预测

桃儿七(Sinopodophyllum hexandrum)为小檗科多年生草本植物, 是我国濒危传统藏药, 预测气候变化对该物种分布范围的影响对于其保护和资源可持续利用具有重要意义。该文利用获得的桃儿七136个地理分布记录和21个气候环境图层, 通过MaxEnt模型分析桃儿七在我国西部七省的潜在地理分布, 并基于该模型预测政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的SRES-A1B、SRES-A2和SRES-B1气候情景下21世纪20、50和80年代桃儿七分布范围。结果表明: 最热季平均温度、年降水量、温度季节性变动系数和等温性是影响桃儿七分布的主要气候因子; 在当前气候条件下, 桃儿七适宜的生境面积占研究区总面积的11.71%, 主要集中在青藏高原东缘的四川、甘肃、青海境内次生植被丰富、地形复杂的高海拔地区, 低适宜生境与不适宜生境分别占研究区总面积的15.86%与72.43%。由模型预测可知, 在SRES-A1B、SRES-A2和SRES-B1三种情景下, 桃儿七在研究区低适宜生境的数量相对变化较小, 在适宜生境先大幅减少后又缓慢增加。研究结果同时表明, 在未来气候变化条件下, 桃儿七的适宜生境平均海拔将逐渐升高, 范围以及几何重心极有可能先向北移, 然后再向西延伸至青藏高原内部较高海拔的山区。     

Biomass allocation and carbon density of Sophora moorcroftiana shrublands in the middle reaches of Yarlung Zangbo River,Xizang, China

Aims The expansion of shrublands is considered as one of the key reasons leading to the increase of carbon density in terrestrial ecosystems in China. In the present study, our aims were to explore the biomass allocation and carbon density of Sophora moorcroftiana shrublands in Xizang.
Methods We sampled the biomass of S. moorcroftiana shrubs from 18 sites in the middle reaches of Yarlung Zangbo River, Xizang. Using concentrations of different organs, we estimated the carbon density of different layers in S. moorcroftiana shrublands.
Important findings The plant cover rather than biomass volume (the product of cover and height) provided the best fit for aboveground biomass. The average of the total biomass was 5.71 Mg·hm^-2, ranging from 2.32 to 8.96 Mg·hm^-2. The average biomass of shrub layer, the main component of shrub ecosystem, was 4.08 Mg·hm^-2, accounting for 71% of the total biomass. The belowground biomass of shrub and herb layers was 2.08 and 0.86 Mg·hm^-2, respectively, which was higher than the corresponding aboveground biomass. The average biomass carbon density was 2.48 Mg·hm^-2. Shrub vegetation in the eastern part of the middle reaches has lower carbon density than that in the western part. The relatively high biomass allocation to roots to increase water and nutrient undertake as well as physical support for plants is an important strategy of S. moorcroftiana to cope with the arid environment on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Moreover, the lower carbon density in the eastern part of the middle reaches might be due to the dry environment resulted from high temperature and evapotranspiration and enhanced human activities at low altitudes. The continuous decrease of evapotranspiration under scenarios of future climate change may lead to increase in carbon density in S. moorcroftiana shrublands.     

Soil C mineralization and temperature sensitivity in alpine grasslands of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

青藏高原具有独特的海拔、气候和生态系统类型, 弄清其土壤有机质分解及其温度敏感性对于揭示青藏高原土壤碳储量变化及其碳汇功能具有重要意义。该文利用青藏高原西北部草地的11个封育-自由放牧成对草地, 通过测定不同温度(5、10、15、20和25 ℃)培养下的土壤碳矿化速率, 探讨了土地利用方式对该地区土壤碳矿化及其温度敏感性的影响。实验结果表明: 温度对青藏高原高寒草地的土壤碳矿化具有显著影响, 温度越高土壤碳矿化量越大。从东至西, 土壤碳矿化量逐渐降低。草地土壤碳矿化量与土壤有机碳和土壤全氮含量显著正相关; 即土壤有机碳和土壤全氮含量越高, 土壤碳矿化量就越高。土地利用方式对土壤碳矿化的温度敏感性(Q₁₀)无显著影响, Q₁₀值变化范围为1.4-2.4; 其中, 放牧草地Q₁₀的平均值为1.83, 封育草地Q₁₀的平均值为1.86。此外, Q₁₀与土壤有机碳和土壤全氮含量无显著的相关关系, 也无明显的空间格局。放牧和封育对青藏高原高寒草地土壤碳矿化的温度敏感性无显著影响, 为深入分析青藏高原土壤碳汇功能及其对未来气温升高的响应提供了重要的理论依据。     

桃儿七种子解剖结构及其萌发生长期形态特征

为探明种皮和胚乳是否是限制桃儿七种子萌发的主要因素,利用组织切片和显微技术,对桃儿七种子及其不同萌发期（1、7、14、21、28 d）解剖结构和播种后一定时期内（7~210 d）的植株生长形态进行观察。桃儿七种子由种皮、胚乳和胚构成。种皮包括外种皮和内种皮,外种皮致密规整,由外至内分别为栅状石细胞和表皮层细胞,内种皮由5~6层海绵细胞组成。胚乳占种子体积的绝大部分,包括珠孔胚乳和外胚乳。胚由胚根、胚轴和子叶组成,被致密种皮、多层珠孔胚乳和外胚乳包围。萌发期1~7 d胚根和胚轴开始伸长,7~14 d两片子叶分离,14~21 d胚根突破珠孔胚乳和种皮,21~28 d胚根、胚轴和子叶继续扩张伸长。种子播种210 d后可平均形成3片功能真叶和5条不定根。致密种皮（物理休眠）和多层胚乳（机械休眠）是限制桃儿七种子萌发的两个主要因素。     

西南地区红花龙胆分布格局模拟与气候变化影响评价

应用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型,基于230条分布记录及33个气候因子数据,模拟全新世中期(约6000年前)、当前时期(1950—2000年)和未来(2050s、2070s)气候条件下,红花龙胆西南地区的潜在分布范围;结合多元统计分析和ArcGIS空间分析,筛选影响物种分布的关键气候因子,探讨不同分布区对气候变化的敏感性.结果表明: 模型训练集AUC值为0.942,验证集AUC值为0.849,表明模型预测的准确性较高.5个气候因子(7月最高气温、8月最低气温、昼夜温差与年温差比值、7月最低气温和6月最低气温)对模型贡献最大,累计贡献率达59.9%.随未来气候变化,红花龙胆适生区将呈现先减少后增加的变化趋势,在RCP 8.5情景下,至2070s阶段,西南地区红花龙胆适宜生境总面积与当前气候条件相比减少15.0%,但云南境内适生区和高适生区面积较当前分别增加32.8%和32.7%.红花龙胆适宜生长于温暖、湿润的气候条件下,气候变暖明显影响着适宜生境的面积和范围,尤其低海拔分布区对气候变化较敏感,适宜生境退缩严重,而高海拔地区由于降水、温度条件的改善适宜生境有所增加.随着全球气候的变化,未来西南地区红花龙胆主要分布区可能向西迁移,并向更高海拔扩张.     

Effects of environmental factors on gross caloric values of three life-forms aquatic plants on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,China

Aims Gross caloric value (GCV) reflected plants’ capability of converting solar energy. It provided a reliable indicator of plants’ adaptations to environments in perspective of energy conversion and fixation. The aims of this study were (1) to illustrate the characteristics of GCV of aquatic plants on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, (2) to explore the geographical and environmental patterns and (3) to discuss the underlying mechanisms in forming the patterns.
Methods In July and August 2015, we collected 533 samples of aquatic plants’ leaves in 143 field sites on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, and measured their GCV using SDACM-4000 oxygen bomb calorimeter. Together with mean annual temperature (MAT) of climatic factor and properties of water body, this study compared the differences of GCV among submerged, emergent and floating-leaved plants by analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey’s HSD. We further regressed GCV of submerged and emergent plants against geographical and climatic factors and properties of water body by simple regression to explore the relative effects of environmental factors on GCV.
Important findings On the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, the mean GCV was (15.95 ± 3.90) kJ·g^-1. Among the three life forms, the rank of GCV was the emergent plants (18.10 kJ·g^-1) > the floating-leaved plants (16.77 kJ·g^-1) > the submerged plants (14.31 kJ·g^-1). With an increasing latitude, the GCV of emergent and submerged plants increased. Only GCV of emergent plants decreased with increasing altitude and temperature. The GCV of emergent and submerged plants increased with increased water salinity. Dissolved oxygen had significant negative effects on emergent plants, while pH value had no significant effects.     

Predicting phenology shifts of herbaceous plants on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau under climate warming with the space-for-time method

气候变暖背景下的植物物候变化广受关注, 然而常用的植物物候变化预测模型未充分考虑植物对环境的适应性, 给预测结果带来了较大的不确定性。该文基于2002-2011年青藏高原10个站点的地面物候观测资料以及年平均气温数据, 对空间换时间模型预测车前(Plantago asiatica)和蒲公英(Taraxacum mongolicum)各主要物候事件(展叶始期、开花始期和黄枯普遍期)变化的可行性及其在升温背景下的变化规律进行了分析。首先利用不同海拔高度的气温和物候事件分别与地理因子(经度、纬度和海拔)建立多元线性回归模型, 然后在此基础上剔除经度和纬度的影响, 单独考察海拔变化所引起的气温与植物物候变化, 最后以海拔高度作为桥梁来考察物候变化与温度变化的关系。结果表明, 采用各站点对应的海拔高度来模拟年平均气温空间差异的R²均大于0.89, 表明海拔梯度可以用来反映时间尺度下的年际温度变化; 车前和蒲公英各物候事件发生日期拟合值均与海拔高度变化关系显著, R²均大于0.70, 表明海拔变化是影响它们各物候事件变化的主要地理因子; 在物候事件发生日期拟合值和年平均气温拟合值的回归方程中, R²均大于0.93, 说明基于不同海拔高度模拟得到的年平均气温变化可以对时间尺度上车前和蒲公英的物候事件变化进行预测。空间换时间预测表明, 温度每升高1 ℃, 车前展叶始期和开花始期分别提前5.1和5.4 d, 而黄枯普遍期推迟4.8 d; 蒲公英展叶始期和开花始期分别提前6.5和7.8 d, 而黄枯普遍期推迟6.7 d。     

Trade-off between height and branch numbers in Stellera chamaejasme on slopes of different aspects in a degraded alpine grassland

权衡关系是生活史对策理论的基础, 株高和枝条数的权衡关系对理解植物在不同生境下的表型可塑性有重要意义。该研究选择祁连山北坡高寒退化草地, 利用ArcGIS建立研究区域的数字高程模型(DEM), 并提取样地坡向数据, 采用广义相加模型(GAM)与偏相关分析相结合的方法, 分析了不同坡向影响下狼毒(Stellera chamaejasme)种群株高和枝条数的关系。结果表明: 随着坡向由北坡转向东坡、南坡、西坡, 草地群落地上生物量和盖度呈“减小—增大—减小”的变化趋势, 群落高度则先增大后减小; 坡向是影响狼毒株高和枝条数空间分异的主要地形因子; 随着坡向由北、东转向西、南, 狼毒种群株高呈下降趋势, 而枝条数呈上升趋势, 二者表现出此消彼长的权衡关系, 狼毒植株比叶面积先增大后减小。不同坡向狼毒株高和枝条数的权衡关系, 反映了异质生境中资源多重竞争下狼毒生物量分配机制和提高种群适应性的种群更新策略。     

Flower symmetry and flower size variability: an examination of Berg’s hypotheses in an alpine meadow

植物花对称性与传粉系统密切相关, 花特征的变异性受到传粉者的选择作用。由于特化的传粉者对两侧对称的花的稳定选择, Berg假说认为两侧对称植物花大小的变异性比辐射对称植物的更低; 而且, 在传粉者的选择作用下花特征比植物营养特征明显有更低的变异性, 因为后者更易受环境影响。该文对青藏高原东部高山草甸植物群落的50种开花植物(包括19种两侧对称植物和31种辐射对称植物)的花和叶特征进行了测定和分析。结果表明不论是两侧对称植物还是辐射对称植物, 花大小的变异性都显著低于叶片大小的变异性, 表明传粉者对花施加的稳定选择有利于花的稳定性。但是, 辐射对称物种花大小的变异程度和两侧对称物种的相似, 即使在控制物种系统发育的影响后, 也没有发现显著的差异, 这与Berg假说不一致。高山生态系统中传粉者种类相对较少, 以熊蜂和蝇类为主, 传粉者的活动受局域气候环境影响较大, 因此传粉昆虫对植物花的选择作用强度可能有较大的变异性。     

Responses of soil respiration to reduced water table and nitrogen addition in an alpine wetland on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

近20年来, 青藏高原高寒湿地经历了明显的气候变化, 从而导致多数湿地水位下降和氮沉降的增加。对于湿地生态系统来说, 水位下降意味着土壤通气性能的改善, 可能会导致土壤呼吸的增加; 而氮沉降的增加可能会降低土壤微生物生物量和pH值, 从而可能抑制土壤呼吸。为此, 在青海海北高寒草地生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站利用中宇宙(Mesocosm)实验方法, 探讨了青藏高原高寒泥炭型湿地土壤呼吸对水位降低和氮添加的响应。结果表明: (1)水位降低显著增强了土壤呼吸, 而氮添加对土壤呼吸的影响依赖于水位的变化: 对照水位下, 氮添加显著抑制土壤呼吸; 而水位降低时, 氮添加对土壤呼吸速率无显著影响。(2)土壤呼吸速率与地上生物量、枯落物累积量之间呈显著正相关关系, 而与根系生物量无显著相关关系。(3)水位降低显著提高了土壤呼吸的温度敏感性, 而氮添加对其无显著的影响。因此预测: 随着氮沉降的升高, 高寒泥炭湿地土壤CO₂的排放量将会减少; 然而随着暖干化背景下水位的降低, 青藏高原高寒湿地会排放更多的CO₂。     

Morphological traits and physiological characteristics in drought tolerance in 20 shrub species on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

Aims Providing indispensably theoretical evidence for establishing indices of evaluation on drought tolerance in shrubs, and screening for tree species that are drought tolerant for afforestation in arid regions or for matching their characteristics with suitable habitat conditions are the key to vegetation restoration in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. However, these issues are not adequately addressed in recent research due to lack of systematic methods. Therefore, our objective was to make a comprehensive evaluation on drought tolerance in 20 shrub species collected from different areas in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, and to study their underlying mechanisms in drought tolerance.
Methods We made measurements on variables depicting root characteristics, including the root length (TRL), surface area (TRSA), volume (TRV), and tips number (TRTN) of all roots, the root length (FRL), surface area (FRSA), volume (FRV), and tips number (FRTN) of fine roots (d≤2 mm), and derived plant characteristic indices including thickness of cuticle (CT), thickness of palisade tissue (TPT), thickness of spongy tissue (TST), TPT/TST, thickness of leaf (LT), palisable tissue cell density, and tissue structural tense ratio (CTR = TPT/LT × 100%) and spongy tissue loosened ratio (SR = TST/LT × 100%) of leaf anatomical structure, root to shoot ratio (RSR), leaf transpiration rate (T_r), instantaneous water use efficiency (WUE_i), and carbon isotopic composition (δ¹³C) of the 20 shrub species through field experiments. Correlation analysis and principal component analysis were performed on the 19 variables and indices.
Important findings Different shrubs had different mechanisms of drought tolerance. In this study, the character- istics of drought tolerance were mainly categorized into 6 types, involving modifications of (1) root systems, (2) leaf anatomical structure, (3) leaf pattern, and (4) biomass allocation, or via (5) low water-consumption and (6) high WUE_i. Different genera or different tree species within the same genus clearly differed in drought tolerance. The species of the genus Hippophae were relatively poorly tolerant to drought, whereas several shrubs including Potentilla fruticosa, Berberis julianae, Caragana arborescens, Spiraea salicifolia and Hippophae rhamnoides ssp. mongolica occurred to be more drought tolerant than other shrub species investigated in this study. On the other hand, there were highly significant correlations among the characteristics of root systems and among characteristics of leaf anatomical structure. The results of principal component analysis on 19 variables and indices showed that TRL, TRSA, TRV, TRTN, FRL, FRSA, FRV, FRTN, CT, TPT, TST and WUE_i could be effective indicators of drought tolerance of shrubs in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. In addition, the drought tolerance of shrubs had a close connection with their origin of collections; the shrubs collected from Xining prefecture in Qinghai Province were more drought tolerant than those from Tianshui Prefecture in Gansu and Lasa Prefecture in Xizang.     

基于序列trnL-trnF和ITS的榉属系统发育与地理分布格局的初步分析

榉属(Zelkova)是包含6个种的榆科小属, 呈东亚、西亚和南欧间断分布。该文基于DNA序列trnL-trnF和ITS构建了榉属的分子系统发育树, 大体上把此属分为3个分支, 分别对应东亚、西亚和南欧的种类, 与前人仅依据ITS序列的结果不同。生物地理的扩散和隔离分化分析(DIVA)表明, 榉属的原始祖先分布区可能是欧亚北温带, 包括了东亚、西亚和南欧的某个大的区域。分化过程以隔离分化为主要特征, 即3个分布区域是逐步隔离分化的。由于东亚的物种多样性, 北太平洋有可能是起源中心。榉属的现代分布格局可能主要是由于渐新世发生的古地中海西退、中新世发生的青藏高原大范围隆升, 以及第四纪冰川活动引起的分布区的收缩。     

Effects of glyphosate on interspecific competition between Solidago canadensis and Imperata cylindrica

Aims The extensive use of herbicide to control invasive plants would change the relationship between alien and neighboring plants. In order to provide data for rational use of herbicide and a theoretical reference for further studies on the ecological effects of glyphosate, we explored the variation of the relationship between an invasive plant Solidago canadensis and a native plant Imperata cylindrica when they were sprayed glyphosate.
Methods A replacement series experiment was conducted from June to August 2016 in Wetland Ecosystem Research Station of Hangzhou Bay, State Forestry Administration, to examine the effects of glyphosate at seven concentration levels (0, 0.3, 0.6, 0.9, 1.2, 1.5, 1.8 mL·L^-1) on the growth and interspecific competition of S. canadensis and I. cylindrica.
Important findings (1) Glyphosate treatment significantly inhibited the growth of S. canadensis and I. cylindrica (p < 0.05). During the test, cumulative growth of height and leaf number of S. canadensis were apparently reduced with the increase of glyphosate concentration, but the leaf number of S. canadensis treated with 0.3- 1.5 mL·L^-1 glyphosate was re-growing with time, while the one treated with 1.8 mL·L^-1 was mostly dead. The withering rate of tiller and green leaf of I. cylindrica also significantly increased with the increase of glyphosate concentration, and the growth indices of this plant treated with 0.3-0.6 mL·L^-1 were also re-growing with time. (2) Glyphosate treatment significantly affected interspecific competition (p < 0.05), which diminished as the glyphosate concentration increased. (3) Interspecific competition has significant influence on the biomass allocation of S. canadensis (p < 0.05). When facing competition, S. canadensis would allocate more organic matter to root and thus increase the ratio of root to shoot. Competition only inhibited the tiller number and total biomass of I. cylindrica, but insignificantly affected its ratio of root to shoot. (4) The interaction between glyphosate treatment and S. canadensis-I. cylindrica interspecific relationship also significantly influenced the biomass of S. canadensis and I. cylindrica (p < 0.05), but insignificantly affected the root/shoot ratio of two plants. Different plants have different tolerance to glyphosate stress. Compared with native plant I. cylindrica, S. canadensis has stronger tolerance to glyphosate. Low-concentration glyphosate could decrease the competitive intensity between S. canadensis and I. cylindrica, which may disturb the structure and dynamics of plant communities.     

末次盛冰期以来观光木的潜在地理分布变迁

观光木(Tsoongiodendron odorum)是木兰科的古老残遗物种, 目前正面临严峻的生存威胁, 属于极小种群濒危植物。通过生态位模型(ENM)能够重建观光木地理分布格局的历史变迁, 探究气候变化对该物种分布的影响, 并了解其地理分布与气候需求间的关系, 从而为全球变暖背景下观光木的保护提供理论基础。该文基于96条现代分布记录和8个环境变量, 采用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型模拟观光木在末次盛冰期、全新世中期、现代和未来(2061-2080年, RCP 8.5)的潜在分布区, 利用SDM toolbox分析观光木的地理空间变化, 并综合贡献率、置换重要值和Jackknife检验来评估气候因子的重要性。研究结果表明: (1)观光木的高度适生区在南岭地区, 末次盛冰期时没有大尺度向南退缩, 很可能在山区避难所原地存活; (2)在全新世中期和未来两个增温的气候情境下, 观光木的分布区均表现为缩减, 其中未来分布的减幅更大, 表明气候变暖对观光木的生长有一定的负面影响; (3)总体上看, 观光木各个时期的地理分布范围相对稳定, 说明观光木对气候变化有一定的适应能力, 人为活动或自身繁育问题可能是致濒的重要原因, 并建议对广东和广西群体进行优先保护。     

气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的适宜分布区预测

祁连圆柏具有良好的水土保持功能,是青海省高寒干旱地区造林绿化的优良乡土树种之一,预测未来气候变化情景下祁连圆柏在青海省的潜在地理分布将为祁连圆柏的经营管理和引种栽培提供理论指导。本研究基于实地调查和资料搜集获得88个有效地理分布样点,利用Maxent模型和ArcGIS空间分析技术对当前气候条件下祁连圆柏在青海省的潜在地理分布进行模拟,综合Jackknife检验和相关系数,分析影响祁连圆柏潜在分布的主导限制因子,同时结合第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的气候模式数据,预测祁连圆柏在3种(SSP126、SSP245、SSP585)气候变化情景下2061—2080年潜在适生区的变化。结果表明:Maxent模型受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)都大于0.92,具有较好的预测能力。在当前气候条件下,祁连圆柏的适宜分布区主要位于青海省东部,总适宜区面积占比为11.2%,影响其地理分布的主导因子是海拔、年均降水量、极端最低温和坡度,累计贡献率为85.9%。未来3种气候情景对祁连圆柏适宜区的影响存在差异,SSP245气候情景的适宜区面积将会缩减,SSP126和SSP585气候情景下则会不同程度地扩张,SSP126气候情景的扩张最明显,其扩张区域主要位于泽库县、河南蒙古族自治县中北部和祁连县东南部地区。在未来3种气候情景下,祁连圆柏适宜分布区逐渐向高海拔地区迁移,但在经纬度方向分布变化较小,适宜区总体稳定。     

Responses of ecosystem carbon exchange to multi-level water addition in an alpine meadow in Namtso of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,China

高寒草甸是青藏高原的主要草地类型, 对青藏高原生态系统碳收支具有重要的调节作用。目前, 有关高寒草甸生态系统碳交换对气候变化的响应所知甚少, 尤其是降水变化会如何影响高寒草甸碳交换过程的相关研究非常匮乏。该文作者于2013和2014年的生长季(5-9月)在青藏高原纳木错地区高寒草甸进行多梯度人工增水实验, 设置对照和5个水分添加梯度, 分别增加0%、20%、40%、60%、80%和100%的降水, 以研究高寒草甸生态系统在不同降水量条件下的碳交换变化。增水处理后, 各处理梯度之间的土壤温度没有显著差异, 而土壤含水量在不同增水处理后出现显著变化, 相对于对照, 增水幅度越大, 对应的土壤含水量越高。综合2013和2014年的观测结果, 高寒草甸生态系统整体表现为碳吸收, 在20%增水处理中, 净生态系统碳交换(NEE)达到最大值, 随着模拟的降水梯度进一步增加, NEE逐渐下降; 增水处理对生态系统呼吸(ER)无显著影响; 总生态系统生产力(GEP)的变化趋势与NEE一致, 即随着增水梯度增大, GEP先增加, 并在增水20%处理达到最大值, 随后GEP开始降低。研究表明, 在高寒草甸生态系统, 水分是影响GEP和NEE的重要因素, 对ER影响较弱; 未来适度的增水(20%-40%)能促进高寒草甸生态系统对碳的吸收。     

人参潜在地理分布以及气候变化对其影响预测

本文以人参为研究对象,基于人参分布点位数据和22个气候环境因子数据,运用BioMod2平台10个物种分布模型对当前我国东北地区人参潜在生境分布进行预测.以受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)为权重集成10个模型的模拟结果,构建组合模型,并基于该模型预测了IPCC 第五次评估报告中RCP 8.5、RCP 6.0、RCP 4.5和RCP 2.6等4种排放情景下21世纪50和70年代人参潜在分布范围.结果表明: 在基准气候条件下,人参适宜生境面积占研究区总面积的10.4%,此类地区主要分布于研究区东北部长白山地区以及小兴安岭东南部区域的森林地带.在未来不同的排放情景下研究区人参的适宜生境变化显著,总体上分布范围将有一定程度的缩小.同时参与建模的10种模型在统计学精度、预测结果以及变量权重上都有差异.模型精度计算结果表明,MAXENT模拟效果最好,GAM、RF和ANN次之,SRE模拟精度最低.本文构建的组合模型在一定程度上提高了现有物种分布模型的预测精度,从而使模拟效果更优.     

气候变化背景下近30年祁连山高寒荒漠分布时空变化

高寒荒漠作为青藏高原植被带谱的顶端类型广泛分布于祁连山高海拔地区, 其生长和分布条件与周边区域差异明显, 对气候变化的响应更为敏感, 且研究较少。该文利用1990年以来的Landsat TM、OLI数据, 采用决策树分类和人工目视解译方法, 提取了祁连山高寒荒漠的分布范围。结合气候变化情况, 综合分析了气候变化背景下近30年祁连山高寒荒漠分布的动态变化及其时空差异。结果表明: (1)近30年增温气候变化过程中, 祁连山高寒荒漠分布范围呈萎缩趋势, 萎缩速率约为348.3 km ²·a ^-1, 萎缩变化幅度表现为西段>中段>东段, 局部地段上存在扩张现象。上述现象导致高寒荒漠下界平均海拔以每10年约15 m的平均速率向更高海拔推进, 向上推进幅度为西段>东段>中段; (2)受水热条件控制, 近30年祁连山高寒荒漠分布动态变化集中分布在低坡度地区。由于水热背景条件的空间差异, 祁连山东段和中段阳坡上高寒荒漠分布动态变化大于阴坡, 而在祁连山西段表现相反; (3) 1990年以来, 祁连山增温显著, 降水量微弱增加。在气候变化以及区域地形限制共同影响下, 祁连山高寒荒漠分布变化时空差异明显, 且过渡带上归一化植被指数与气温相关性高于降水量。以上结果表明, 气候变化影响祁连山高寒荒漠分布动态变化及其空间差异, 但气温是主要的影响因子, 增温促进了高寒荒漠下接植被带主体高寒草甸的生长。     

Carbon storage and potentials of the broad-leaved forest in alpine region of the Qinghai- Xizang Plateau,China

Aims
Our objective was to explore the vegetation carbon storages and their variations in the broad-leaved forests in the alpine region of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau that includes Qinghai Province and Xizang Autonomous Region.
Methods
Based on forest resource inventory data and field sampling, this paper studied the carbon storage, its sequestration rate, and the potentials in the broad-leaved forests in the alpine region of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.
Important findings
The vegetation carbon storage in the broad-leaved forest accounted for 310.70 Tg in 2011, with the highest value in the broad-leaved mixed forest and the lowest in Populus forest among the six broad-leaved forests that include Quercus, Betula, Populus, other hard broad-leaved species, other soft broad-leaved species, and the broadleaved mixed forest. The carbon density of the broad-leaved forest was 89.04 Mg·hm^-2, with the highest value in other hard broad-leaved species forest and the lowest in other soft broad-leaved species forest. The carbon storage and carbon density in different layers of the forests followed a sequence of overstory layer > understory layer > litter layer > grass layer > dead wood layer, which all increased with forest age. In addition, the carbon storage of broad-leaved forest increased from 304.26 Tg in 2001 to 310.70 Tg in 2011. The mean annual carbon sequestration and its rate were 0.64 Tg·a^-1 and 0.19 Mg·hm^-2·a^-1, respectively. The maximum and minimum of the carbon sequestration rate were respectively found in other soft broad-leaved species forest and other hard broad-leaved species forest, with the highest value in the mature forest and the lowest in the young forest. Moreover, the carbon sequestration potential in the tree layer of broad-leaved forest reached 19.09 Mg·hm^-2 in 2011, with the highest value found in Quercus forest and the lowest in Betula forest. The carbon storage increased gradually during three inventory periods, indicating that the broad-leaved forest was well protected to maintain a healthy growth by the forest protection project of Qinghai Province and Xizang Autonomous Region.     

气候变化下千金榆在我国潜在分布区预测

气候变化严重影响植物的地理分布格局,植物分布对气候变化响应的区域差异性也将为引种和保存提供重要的指导.本研究基于ArcGIS与MaxEnt模型,利用176个千金榆地理信息和13个气候变量,对当前和未来的生态位进行重建.结果表明:模型模拟当代潜在分布区可信度极高,测试集与训练集AUC值分别为0.973和0.957.主要核心适宜区集中在秦岭、长白山及其各自的邻近区域,其他为零星的“岛屿”式分布.贵州、江西、云南、福建等地未发现千金榆的分布,但存在一定的适宜分布区.随着未来气候变暖,千金榆生态适宜区明显增加,主要表现为“向高海拔地区收缩”、“北扩”和“东扩”.但核心适宜区略有减少,具体表现为“南缩”、“中稳”和“北扩”.千金榆的分布对气候变暖的响应存在明显的区域性,在东部江苏、安徽等地,因其独特的地理位置与气候环境,该地区开始成为千金榆生态适宜区;在较低纬度的南方,原有的低海拔地区可能不再适宜千金榆生存;中部秦岭地区气候为南北的渐变区,有较强的缓冲能力,气候变暖对其分布区影响不大;较高纬度的长白山地区及其邻近区域愈发适宜千金榆生存.