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1.
The dwarf seagrass Zostera noltii is an important primary producer in Atlantic coastal ecosystems from Mauritania to southern Norway and the Mediterranean Sea. Sessile intertidal organisms existing at the interface between marine and terrestrial environments may be particularly vulnerable to environmental change. In this study, we asked how near to thermal tolerance limits natural populations of Z. noltii are in the Ria Formosa coastal lagoon system in southern Portugal. We recorded the maximum temperatures in the Ria Formosa during the 2007 summer, and conducted experiments to determine the sub-lethal temperature of Z. noltii shoots sampled at two sites located at different tidal heights. Mortality rates and photosynthetic performance were recorded within a range of heat shock temperatures between 35 and 41°C. Survival was recorded ≤37°C, while higher temperatures led to a sudden drop in photosynthetic capacity followed by mortality (shoot loss) that occurred more rapidly with increasing temperatures. At 39°C and above, the rate of shoot mortality in both sites was close to 100%, occurring between 5 and 13 days after the heat shock. Survival was ca. 95 and 90% at 35 and 37°C, respectively. From these results for Z. noltii populations in the Ria Formosa we estimated sub-lethal temperature to be approximately 38°C for Z. noltii, close to the maximum of 36°C recorded in the summer 2007. Considering predicted trajectories in the coming decades, these results raise concern as to the future viability of intertidal Z. noltii populations near the southernmost edge of their distribution. Handling editor: S. M. Thomaz  相似文献   

2.
As climate change is expected to impose increasing thermal stress on intertidal organisms, understanding the mechanisms by which body temperatures translate into major biogeographic patterns is of paramount importance. We exposed individuals of the limpet Patella vulgata Linnaeus, 1758, to realistic experimental treatments aimed at disentangling the contribution of water and air temperature for the buildup of thermal stress. Treatments were designed based on temperature data collected at the microhabitat level, from 15 shores along the Atlantic European coast spanning nearly 20° of latitude. Cardiac activity data indicated that thermal stress levels in P. vulgata are directly linked to elevated water temperature, while high air temperature is only stressful if water temperature is also high. In addition, the analysis of the link between population densities and thermal regimes at the studied locations suggests that the occurrence of elevated water temperature may represent a threshold P. vulgata is unable to tolerate. By combining projected temperatures with the temperature threshold identified, we show that climate change will likely result in the westward expansion of the historical distribution gap in the Bay of Biscay (southwest France), and northward contraction of the southern range limit in south Portugal. These findings suggest that even a minor relaxing of the upwelling off northwest Iberia could lead to a dramatic increase in thermal stress, with major consequences for the structure and functioning of the intertidal communities along Iberian rocky shores.  相似文献   

3.
Abundances of the erect, blade phase of Endarachne binghamiae J. Ag. (Scytosiphonales, Phaeophyta) varied seasonally at a southern California rocky intertidal site. Blade cover and density were much greater in the fall through early spring; blades were mostly absent from quadrats during the summer. Blade abundances were negatively correlated with both seasonal variations in seawater temperature and photoperiod. Laboratory culture studies failed to provide evidence for sexual reproduction. The life history appears to be of the “direct” type with plurangia-produced zooids germinating into crustose disks. Most disks developed erect blade clusters under spring/fall (17° C) and winter (13° C) temperatures over the range of natural photoperiods employed (14:10, 12:12, 10:14 h LD). In contrast, cultures held under the summer temperature (21° C) produced almost entirely crustose growths regardless of photoperiod. Similar results were obtained for cultures grown at 100 and 200 μE · m?2· s?1. E. binghamiae blades were fertile throughout the year and produced viable zooids indicating that reproductive seasonality did not influence the seasonal pattern of blade abundance. Culture and field studies suggest that the initiation of new erect blade clusters from crustose disks is confined to the cooler months of the year (winter and spring). The summer reduction or absence of E. binghamiae blades appears to be due to increased mortality rates and temperature constraints on the development of new erect bladed thalli. Hypothetical causes of mortality are desiccation stress, sand burial, increased grazing activity and a genetically-based short life span.  相似文献   

4.
Ecological niche modeling based on surface seawater (SST) and atmospheric (AT) temperature records was used to predict the potential range of distribution of Crassostrea gigas, focusing on the South American coast as a study case. In its native range, the species maintains self-sustaining populations at thermal regimes with mean SST ranging from 14.0° to 28.9°C for the warmest month and from −1.9° to 19.8°C for the coldest month of the year. Settlement is also constrained to mean AT varying between 15° and 31°C for the warmest month and between −23° and 14°C for the coldest month of the year. Latitudinal limits for the species’ distribution in South America predicted by the analysis of AT regimes were Valdivia-Chiloe Island (39.8o–42.0°S, Chile) and Pisco (13.4°S, Peru) on the Pacific coast, and San Julian port (49.3°S) (Argentina) and Garopaba-Rio Grande (28.0°–32.0°S, Brazil) on the Atlantic coast. Geographical limits of distribution predicted by analysis of SST regimes were Chiloe Island (42.0°S, Chile) and Mancora (4.1°S, Peru) on the Pacific coast, and Puerto Deseado ria (47.7°S, Argentina) and Paranaguá (25.7°S, Brazil) on the Atlantic coast. Therefore, SST regimes would expand the potential range on the Pacific coast equatorward relative to AT.  相似文献   

5.
Physiological properties of the temperate hermatypic coral Acropora pruinosa Brook with symbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) on the southern coast of the Izu Peninsula, Shizuoka Prefecture, central Japan, were compared between summer and winter. Photosynthesis and respiration rates of the coral with symbiotic zooxanthellae were measured in summer and winter under controlled temperatures and irradiances with a differential gasvolumeter (Productmeter). Net photosynthetic rate under all irradiances was higher in winter than in summer at the lower range of temperature (12–20°C), while lower than in summer at the higher range of temperature (20–30°C). The optimum temperature for net photosynthesis was apt to fall with the decrease of irradiance both in summer and winter, whereas it was higher in summer than in winter under each irradiance. At 25/ 50/100 μmol photons nr2 s?1, it was nearly the sea‐water temperature in each season. Dark respiration rate was higher in winter than in summer, especially in the range from 20–30°C. In both seasons the optimum temperature for gross photosynthesis was 28°C under 400 μmol photons nr2 s?1 and lowered with decreasing irradiance up to 22°C under 25 μmol photons nr2 s?1 in summer, while 20°C under the same irradiance in winter. The optimum temperature for production/respiration (P/R) ratio was higher in summer than in winter under each irradiance. Results indicated that metabolism of coral and zooxanthellae is adapted to ambient temperature condition under nearly natural irradiance in each season.  相似文献   

6.
The distribution of the dinoflagellate genus Ceratium Schrank (Dinophyceae) in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas was studied by a combination of new observations on a large number of plankton samples collected from the northeastern Atlantic and North Sea, data from cruises off the east coast of North America and Caribbean Sea, and reports in the literature of the past 90 years. Seventy species were recorded, and their distribution was examined by several methods. Distribution maps were plotted for all species, and from these the ranges of temperature tolerance were derived. The 240 sets of data, which took the form of lists of species present in 5° latitude / longitude blocks obtained from the new work and the published material, were analyzed by clustering and ordination multivariate techniques using the programs Twinspan and Decorana. Analysis of the individual species showed that surface water temperature is the most important factor determining distribution and the number of species in a particular area. Warm water and /or low latitudes have many more species than cold waters and/or high latitudes. For example, at 5°N there are on average 23 species per block, whereas at 60° N there are only 8 species. On the basis of this work, the Ceratium species are divided into Group 1, Arctic-temperate species normally only found in water of less than 15°C; Group 2, cosmopolitan species, which are found virtually everywhere and are the species most likely to form blooms or “brown water”; Group 3, intermediate species, which extend into neither the coldest nor the warmest water; Group 4, temperate-tropical species, which have a lower temperature boundary of 5°–12° C; Group 5, warm-temperate-tropical species with a lower temperature boundary of 14°–15°C; and Group 6, tropical species, which are rarely found in water of less than 20° C. Analysis of the sample sites also confirmed the predominant influence of temperature, and the Atlantic Ocean was divided into four biogeographical zones of which the boundaries follow isotherms of surface water temperature. Zone 1 consists of the Arctic and subarctic area, with the southern boundary closely following the 10° mean annual temperature (MAT) line. Zone 2 is an intermediate or cold-temperate zone, of which the southern boundary follows the winter 10° C MAT isotherm or the similarly placed summer 15° isotherm. Zone 3 is the warm-temperate or subtropical zone, which is very broad. The southern boundary closely follows the 25°C summer isotherm. Zone 4 is the tropical zone, where water temperature is never likely to be much less than 23°C. These findings are discussed in relation to experimental work and environmental observations. We suggest that the genus Ceratium provides an excellent tool for defining ocean currents and temperature changes and may become of value in studies of global change.  相似文献   

7.
Aim Marine sessile inter‐tidal invertebrates are expected to undergo shifts in distribution due to climate change. Using a combination of survey and transplant data with thermal modelling, we investigated the role of climate on the poleward contraction of the southern range edge of the north temperate barnacle Semibalanus balanoides. Location Western Atlantic of the United States. Methods Barnacle surveys were conducted along the east coast of the United States in 1963 and 2007. Presence, absence and abundance data were collected and the time periods were compared. Transplant experiments monitoring survival with relation to temperature were conducted upon S. balanoides along the more southerly portion of their range, and modelling predicting barnacle survival with relation to biogeography was completed. Results The southern limit of S. balanoides has contracted approximately 350 km to the north. Main conclusions The changes thus far observed in climate along the east coast of the United States have contributed to the southern limit range contraction of S. balanoides. Further changes in the biogeography of S. balanoides are expected with continued climate warming.  相似文献   

8.
Temperature is important to fish in determining their geographic distribution. For cool- and cold-water fish, thermal regimes are especially critical at the southern end of a species’ range. Although temperature is an easy variable to measure, biological interpretation is difficult. Thus, how to determine what temperatures are meaningful to fish in the field is a challenge. Herein, we used the Connecticut River as a model system and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) as a model species with which to assess the effects of summer temperatures on the density of age 0 parr. Specifically, we asked: (1) What are the spatial and temporal temperature patterns in the Connecticut River during summer? (2) What metrics might detect effects of high temperatures? and (3) How is temperature variability related to density of Atlantic salmon during their first summer? Although the most southern site was the warmest, some northern sites were also warm, and some southern sites were moderately cool. This suggests localized, within basin variation in temperature. Daily and hourly means showed extreme values not apparent in the seasonal means. We observed significant relationships between age 0 parr density and days at potentially stressful, warm temperatures (≥23°C). Based on these results, we propose that useful field reference points need to incorporate the synergistic effect of other stressors that fish encounter in the field as well as the complexity associated with cycling temperatures and thermal refuges. Understanding the effects of temperature may aid conservation efforts for Atlantic salmon in the Connecticut River and other North Atlantic systems.  相似文献   

9.
Temperature tolerances were determined for Caribbean isolates (total 31) of seaureds belonging to three distributional groups: 1) species confined to the tropical western Atlantic (Botryocladia spinulifera, Chamaedoris peniculum, Cladophoropsis sundanensis, Dictyopteris justii, Dictyurus occidentalis, Haloplegma duperreyi, and Heterosiphonia gibbesii); 2) amphi-Atlantic species with a (sub)tropical distribution that have their northern boundary in the eastern Atlantic at the tropical Cape Verde Islands (Bryothamnion triquetrum and Ceramium nitens) or the subtropical Canary Islands (Ceratodictyon intricatum, Coelothrix irregularis, Dictyopteris delicatula, Ernodesmis verticillata, and Lophocladia trichoclados; and 3) species with an am-phi-Atlantic tropical to warm-temperate distribution also occurring in the Mediterranean (Cladophoropsis membranacea, Digenea simplex, Microdictyon boergesenii, and Wurdemannia miniata). For some isolates, growth response curves and temperature requirements for reproduction were also determined. Growth occurred in the range (18)20–30° C with optimum growth rates at 25°–30°C, irrespective of distribution group. Reproduction generally occurred at (20)25°–30° C although there were some exceptions. Species were extremely stenothermal, with those restricted to the western Atlantic surviving a total range of only 10/13° C (between 18/20° and 30/33° C). Tolerance to high temperatures was correlated with vertical position in the iniertidal/subtidal zone rather than biogeography grouping. Species restricted to the subtidal were the least tolerant, with permanent survival at 30° C but not at 33°C. Tolerance to low temperatures was not different in subtidal and intertidal species but was significantly better in am phi-Atlantic than in western Atlantic species. In the former group, damage occurred at 15°–18° C but in the latter group at 18°-20° C. We propose that these differences in low-temperature tolerances in Caribbean populations of species from different distribution groups reflect adaptations to glacial cold-stress in the tropical eastern Atlantic and subsequent trans-Atlantic dispersal.  相似文献   

10.
The southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis, is among the most important agents of ecological disturbance and economic loss in forests of the south-eastern United States. We combined physiological measurements of insect temperature responses with climatic analyses to test the role of temperature in determining the northern distribution limits of D. frontalis. Laboratory measurements of lower lethal temperatures and published records of mortality in wild populations indicated that air temperatures of ?16° should result in almost 100% mortality of D. frontalis. The distribution limits for D. frontalis approximate the isoline corresponding to an annual probability of 0.90 of reaching ≤?16 °C. Thus, D. frontalis have been found about as far north as they could possibly occur given winter temperature regimes. At latitudes from 39° N (southern Ohio) to 33° N (central Alabama), winter temperatures must exert high mortality on D. frontalis populations in at least one year out of ten. In contrast, we reject the hypotheses that summer temperatures or the distribution of host trees constrain the northern distribution of D. frontalis. Because of the short generation time of D. frontalis, its high dispersal abilities, and the cosmopolitan distribution of suitable host trees, changes in either the mean or variance of minimum annual temperatures could have almost immediate effects on regional patterns of beetle infestations. We estimate that an increase of 3 °C in minimum annual temperature could extend the northern distribution limits by 170 km. Increases or decreases in the variance of minimum annual temperatures would further relax climatic constraints on the northern distribution limits of D. frontalis. Results emphasize the ecological importance of spatial and temporal variability in minimum annual temperatures. The physiologically based models provide a tool for guiding land management decisions in forests and illustrate a general approach for predicting the regional effects of climatic patterns on the distribution of organisms.  相似文献   

11.
Kelps, seaweeds and seagrasses provide important ecosystem services in coastal areas, and loss of these macrophytes is a global concern. Recent surveys have documented severe declines in populations of the dominant kelp species, Saccharina latissima, along the south coast of Norway. S. latissima is a cold‐temperate species, and increasing seawater temperature has been suggested as one of the major causes of the decline. Several studies have shown that S. latissima can acclimate to a wide range of temperatures. However, local adaptations may render the extrapolation of existing results inappropriate. We investigated the potential for thermal acclimation and heat tolerance in S. latissima collected from three locations along the south coast of Norway. Plants were kept in laboratory cultures at three different growth temperatures (10, 15, and 20°C) for 4–6 weeks, after which their photosynthetic performance, fluorescence parameters, and pigment concentrations were measured. S. latissima obtained almost identical photosynthetic characteristics when grown at 10 and 15°C, indicating thermal acclimation at these temperatures. In contrast, plants grown at 20°C suffered substantial tissue deterioration, and showed reduced net photosynthetic capacity caused by a combination of elevated respiration and reduced gross photosynthesis due to lowered pigment concentrations, altered pigment composition, and reduced functionality of Photo‐system II. Our results support the hypothesis that extraordinarily high temperatures, as observed in 1997, 2002, and 2006, may have initiated the declines in S. latissima populations along the south coast of Norway. However, observations of high mortality in years with low summer temperatures suggest that reduced population resilience or other factors may have contributed to the losses.  相似文献   

12.
Intertidal corals have been under-studied yet they provide scope for understanding adaptation and acclimatisation of corals to marginal conditions. Corals in intertidal rock pools along the east coast of South Africa withstand large temperature fluctuations, and marginal conditions for survival and growth. Four sites along the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) coastline were sampled to determine latitudinal differences in coral communities, from 27°S to 31°S. Water temperature of rock pools at each site was monitored to see if temperature determined coral diversity in intertidal pools. Sixteen coral species were present in rock pools overall. Each of three sites in northern and central KZN hosted 12 coral taxa whereas only six taxa occurred at the most southern site. Anomastrea irregularis was the most abundant species at all sites, followed by Pocillopora verrucosa and P. damicornis. Unexpectedly, rock pool temperatures did not show a trend with latitude and thus cannot explain this decline in coral diversity. Temperatures in isolated rock pools showed large summer day time fluctuations of more than 10 °C at spring tide. However, temperatures drop substantially at high tide, lowering the mean rock pool temperature and possibly allowing these coral communities to persist in the marginal conditions of rock pools in South Africa.  相似文献   

13.
Aim We performed the first test of predictions from the abundant‐centre model using north‐west Atlantic coastal organisms. We tested the hypotheses that the density of intertidal mussels (Mytilus edulis and M. trossulus) and dogwhelks (Nucella lapillus) and mussel age and size would peak at an intermediate location along their distribution range. We also assessed the latitudinal variation in critical aerial exposure time. Location North‐west Atlantic coast between Newfoundland (Canada) and New York (USA), covering 1800 km of shoreline. Methods Using a nested design, we measured mussel density, age and size and dogwhelk density in 60 wave‐exposed rocky intertidal sites spread evenly in six regions. Critical aerial exposure times were determined using online data. Results Mytilus edulis peaked in abundance in Maine and was much less abundant in the other regions. Mytilus trossulus peaked in abundance in southern Nova Scotia and Maine, was less abundant in the other regions to the north, and was absent in the southernmost region (New York). Both mussel species were least abundant in a northern region (Cape Breton), although not in the northernmost region (Newfoundland). Critical aerial exposure times were negatively correlated with overall mussel density. Mussel age and size were similar among regions. Dogwhelks peaked in abundance in Maine and were much less abundant in the other regions, being positively correlated with overall mussel density across regions. Main conclusions Density data for M. edulis and N. lapillus provide limited support for an abundant‐centre pattern, while M. trossulus shows a clear ramped‐south distribution. Critical aerial exposure times suggest that physiological stress during summer and winter low tides may be lowest in Maine and southern Nova Scotia, which might partially explain mussel predominance in those regions. Winter ice scour in Cape Breton may explain the abundance trough observed there. Mussel size and age may be more limited by wave exposure at our sites (as they all face open waters) than by regional differences in environmental stress. Dogwhelks, which prey on mussels, seem to respond positively to prey density at the regional scale. Our study supports the notion that, while the abundant‐centre model is a useful starting point for research, it often represents an oversimplification of reality.  相似文献   

14.
The year-round thermal habitat at sea for adult Atlantic salmon Salmo salar (n = 49) from northern Norway was investigated using archival tags over a 10 year study period. During their ocean feeding migration, the fish spent 90% of the time in waters with temperatures from 1.6–8.4°C. Daily mean temperatures ranged from −0.5 to 12.9°C, with daily temperature variation up to 9.6°C. Fish experienced the coldest water during winter (November–March) and the greatest thermal range during the first summer at sea (July–August). Trends in sea-surface temperatures influenced the thermal habitat of salmon during late summer and autumn (August–October), with fish experiencing warmer temperatures in warmer years. This pattern was absent during winter (November–March), when daily mean temperatures ranged from 3.4–5.0°C, in both colder and warmer years. The observations of a constant thermal habitat during winter in both warmer and colder years, may suggest that the ocean distribution of salmon is flexible and that individual migration routes could shift as a response to spatiotemporal alterations of favourable prey fields and ocean temperatures.  相似文献   

15.
Temperature tolerance (1 week exposure time) was investigated in 49 species of benthic marine macroalgae and two seagrass species from San Juan Island (Washington) or Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Positive net photosynthesis was the parameter used to detect survival. Most algal species survived -1.5° C (the lowest applied temperature), and none 30° C. The most heat-tolerant, eurythermal algal species survived 28° C: these were Ahnfeltia plicata, Mastocarpus papillatus (as crustose tetrasporophyte), Endocladia muricata, and Sargassum muticum. In contrast, most representatives of the Laminariales exhibited a cold-stenothermic character: Cymathere triplicata, Pleurophycus gardneri, Hedophyllum sessile, Postelsia palmaeformis survived up to only 15° C, and Laminaria saccharina, L. groenlandica, L. setchellii to 18° C. As to the seagrass species, Zostera marina survived a temperature range of - 1.5 to 30° C and Phyllospadix scouleri a range of - 1.5 to 25° C. For many of the sublittoral species there was agreement between maximum survived temperatures in our experiments and average maxima of summer temperatures at the southern geographical limits of the species. Specimens of four species exhibited upper survival limits similar to those of conspecifics in the North Atlantic; namely, Desmarestia ‘aculeata, D. viridis, Plocamium cartilagineum, and Ahnfeltia plicata. These results favor the interpretation of upper temperature survival limits as conservative taxonomic traits.  相似文献   

16.
Higher temperatures projected under current climate change models are generally predicted to exert an overall positive effect on the success of invasive insects through increased survivability, developmental rates and fecundity, and by facilitating geographic range expansion. However, these effects have primarily focused on the shifts in winter temperatures with limited attention to the role that summer heat may play in shaping species ranges or fitness. We examined the thermal ecology of an ecologically important invasive forest insect, the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae), by determining survival during its summer dormancy phase under increasing temperature regimens. From laboratory and field experiments, we documented a positive association between increased temperatures and duration of exposure, and A. tsugae mortality. Adelges tsugae mortality was minimal (<20%) when exposed to summer temperatures characteristic to its native range (<25 °C), but markedly increased (up to 100%) when exposed to temperatures that occur occasionally or rarely in natural settings (>30 °C). At the warmest, southernmost edge of their range, field mortality of A. tsugae ranged from 8.5 to 81.9% and was strongly correlated with site temperature regimens. Further, we found no significant differences in A. tsugae survival between populations collected from Maine and Georgia, and over a 3-year period within Georgia, indicating that A. tsugae may not be acclimating to heat. These results highlight the importance of including summer temperatures in studies regarding increased temperatures on insect dynamics, and may alter historical predictions of climate change impacts on invasive insects and the conservation of forest ecosystems.  相似文献   

17.
The mussel Choromytilus meridionalis (Krauss) is a common inhabitant of the intertidal zone on the west coast of the Cape Peninsula, South Africa, and experiences temperatures of between 8°C when immersed by the tide and at least 25°C on exposure to air. The activity of α-amylase extracted from the crystalline style of freshly-collected mussels has a low temperature coefficient of ≈ 1.12 over much of the temperature range experienced in the natural environment. Warm acclimation results in an increase in the α-amylase activity, despite the fact that individual rate: temperature curves for extracts from mussels acclimated to 8, 15 and 22°C have rather low temperature coefficients of 1.14–1.17 between 10 and 20°C. The increase of activity of the α-amylase following warm acclimation may form an integral part of the improved filtration, ingestion and assimilation which is necessary to offset increased metabolic losses during the warm conditions of the summer months.  相似文献   

18.
Aim Despite the pervasive and well‐documented effects of global warming on species’ ranges in terrestrial taxa and systems, the effect of sea surface warming has been poorly studied in marine systems. Here we analyse changes in the southern endpoints of distribution of rocky intertidal species (gastropods and chitons) along the Chilean coast, and trends in sea surface temperature (SST), using data collected during the last half‐century. Location South‐eastern Pacific coast, between 18°20′ S and 42°35′ S. Methods Past southern endpoints of distribution were obtained for 10 intertidal species from museum collections and literature reviews. Current endpoints are based on field sampling conducted between 1998 and 2000. Changes in the position of southern endpoints were analysed individually for each species, as well as for the entire assemblage of species included in the analysis. SST records encompassing 51–57 years were obtained from five coastal stations located between 18° and 36° S. Results and main conclusions Most species (eight of 10) did not show expansion of their southern endpoint. The proportion of species expanding, contracting or maintaining their southern limit did not differ from chance expectation. On average, species showed small (1° latitude), non‐significant contractions, with low rates of decadal change (0.18° latitude per 10 years). This pattern can be explained by changes in SST, which showed a weak warming trend (and at some sites even cooling) along the Chilean coast during the last 57 years. Our results show that different regional warming trends occur, and suggest that generalizations about poleward shifts in species ranges cannot be made. However, our results support the hypothesis that temperature is a major determinant of species range dynamics.  相似文献   

19.
The relationship between air temperature and human mortality is described as non-linear, with mortality tending to rise in response to increasingly hot or cold ambient temperatures from a given minimum mortality or optimal comfort temperature, which varies from some areas to others according to their climatic and socio-demographic characteristics. Changes in these characteristics within any specific region could modify this relationship. This study sought to examine the time trend in the maximum temperature of minimum organic-cause mortality in Castile-La Mancha, from 1975 to 2003. The analysis was performed by using daily series of maximum temperatures and organic-cause mortality rates grouped into three decades (1975–1984, 1985–1994, 1995–2003) to compare confidence intervals (p < 0.05) obtained by estimating the 10-yearly mortality rates corresponding to the maximum temperatures of minimum mortality calculated for each decade. Temporal variations in the effects of cold and heat on mortality were ascertained by means of ARIMA models (Box-Jenkins) and cross-correlation functions (CCF) at seven lags. We observed a significant decrease in comfort temperature (from 34.2°C to 27.8°C) between the first two decades in the Province of Toledo, along with a growing number of significant lags in the summer CFF (1, 3 and 5, respectively). The fall in comfort temperature is attributable to the increase in the effects of heat on mortality, due, in all likelihood, to the percentage increase in the elderly population.  相似文献   

20.
The distributional limits of many ectothermic species are set by thermal tolerances of early‐developmental stages in the life history; embryos and larvae often are less able to buffer environmental variation than are conspecific adults. In pond‐breeding amphibians, for example, cold water may constrain viability of eggs and larvae, even if adults can find suitable thermal conditions in terrestrial niches. Invasive species provide robust model systems for exploring these questions, because we can quantify thermal challenges at the expanding range edge (from field surveys) and larval responses to thermal conditions (in the laboratory). Our studies on invasive cane toads (Rhinella marina) at the southern (cool‐climate) edge of their expanding range in Australia show that available ponds often average around 20°C during the breeding period, 10°C lower than in many areas of the toads’ native range, or in the Australian tropics. Our laboratory experiments showed that cane toad eggs and larvae cannot develop successfully at 16°C, but hatching success and larval survival rates were higher at 20°C than in warmer conditions. Lower temperatures slowed growth rates, increasing the duration of tadpole life, but also increased metamorph body mass. Water temperature also influenced metamorph body shape (high temperatures reduced relative limb length, head width, and body mass) and locomotor performance (increased speed from intermediate temperatures, longer hops from high temperatures). In combination with previous studies, our data suggest that lower water temperatures may enhance rather than reduce recruitment of cane toads, at least in areas where pond temperatures reach or exceed 20°C. That condition is fulfilled over a wide area of southern Australia, suggesting that the continuing expansion of this invasive species is unlikely to be curtailed by the impacts of relatively low water temperatures on the viability of early life‐history stages.  相似文献   

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