Soil-transmitted helminth infections: updating the global picture

Public health workers and parasitologists have long been interested in estimating numbers infected with particular parasite species. Recent changes in social and economic conditions, in addition to implementation of control in some regions of the world, have changed the global picture of soil-transmitted helminth infections. This article brings global estimates up to date, reveals some interesting new trends and discusses the future for control.     

普陀山岛旅游生态安全发展趋势预测

科学地预测海岛目的地旅游生态安全发展趋势,对促进海岛旅游经济和生态环境协调发展具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。基于可持续发展的视角,建立了由承载力-支持力-吸引力-延续力和发展力(CSAED模型)子系统构成的普陀山旅游生态安全指标体系,并在灰色系统GM(1,1)模型和RBF神经网络模型比较选优的基础上,对普陀山岛旅游生态安全发展趋势进行了预测。研究结果表明:(1)和灰色系统GM(1,1)模型相比,RBF神经网络模型的Pearson相关系数和误差均方根值更优,可更精确地拟合普陀山岛旅游生态安全发展趋势;(2)2015—2020年,普陀山岛旅游生态安全指数的RBF神经网络模型预测结果由0.7017增加至0.8135,安全等级由比较安全上升至非常安全。研究结果可为维护普陀山岛旅游生态安全提供决策依据。     

Gloom and doom? The future of marine capture fisheries

Predicting global fisheries is a high-order challenge but predictions have been made and updates are needed. Past forecasts, present trends and perspectives of key parameters of the fisheries--including potential harvest, state of stocks, supply and demand, trade, fishing technology and governance--are reviewed in detail, as the basis for new forecasts and forecasting performance assessment. The future of marine capture fisheries will be conditioned by the political, social and economic evolution of the world within which they operate. Consequently, recent global scenarios for the future world are reviewed, with the emphasis on fisheries. The main driving forces (e.g. global economic development, demography, environment, public awareness, information technology, energy, ethics) including aquaculture are described. Outlooks are provided for each aspect of the fishery sector. The conclusion puts these elements in perspective and offers the authors' personal interpretation of the possible future pathway of fisheries, the uncertainty about it and the still unanswered questions of direct relevance in shaping that future.     

Predicting community rank‐abundance distributions under current and future climates

Understanding influences of environmental change on biodiversity requires consideration of more than just species richness. Here we present a novel framework for understanding possible changes in species' abundance structures within communities under climate change. We demonstrate this using comprehensive survey and environmental data from 1748 woody plant communities across southeast Queensland, Australia, to model rank‐abundance distributions (RADs) under current and future climates. Under current conditions, the models predicted RADs consistent with the region's dominant vegetation types. We demonstrate that under a business as usual climate scenario, total abundance and richness may decline in subtropical rainforest and shrubby heath, and increase in dry sclerophyll forests. Despite these opposing trends, we predicted evenness in the distribution of abundances between species to increase in all vegetation types. By assessing the information rich, multidimensional RAD, we show that climate‐driven changes to community abundance structures will likely vary depending on the current composition and environmental context.     

庐山风景区碳源、碳汇的测度及均衡

旅游目的地系统碳源、碳汇的计算与分析,不仅是旅游业节能减排政策制定的重要依据,也是旅游与环境相互关系研究的一个新的科学命题.以庐山风景区为例,计算并分析了2010年的碳源及碳汇.结果表明:(1)2010年庐山风景区包括本地居民和旅游者的总碳排放为108 697 t.其中,本地居民占碳排放总量的19.52％,旅游者占碳排放总量的80.48％.在旅游者碳排放中,旅游交通碳排放占50.24％,旅游住宿碳排放占38.04％,旅游食物消费碳排放占10.65％,旅游活动碳排放仅占1.07％;(2)2010年庐山风景区内陆地生态系统碳吸收为9447 t;(3)从碳源、碳汇均衡角度看,庐山陆地生态系统的固碳量吸收了区内碳排放的23.47％.但由于旅游者的区际流动和旅游业的产业关联性强,陆地生态系统的碳吸收仅占区内和区外碳排放总量的8.69％,旅游业使庐山成为一个显著的碳源.     

Plant genetics, sustainable agriculture and global food security

The United States and the world face serious societal challenges in the areas of food, environment, energy, and health. Historically, advances in plant genetics have provided new knowledge and technologies needed to address these challenges. Plant genetics remains a key component of global food security, peace, and prosperity for the foreseeable future. Millions of lives depend upon the extent to which crop genetic improvement can keep pace with the growing global population, changing climate, and shrinking environmental resources. While there is still much to be learned about the biology of plant-environment interactions, the fundamental technologies of plant genetic improvement, including crop genetic engineering, are in place, and are expected to play crucial roles in meeting the chronic demands of global food security. However, genetically improved seed is only part of the solution. Such seed must be integrated into ecologically based farming systems and evaluated in light of their environmental, economic, and social impacts-the three pillars of sustainable agriculture. In this review, I describe some lessons learned, over the last decade, of how genetically engineered crops have been integrated into agricultural practices around the world and discuss their current and future contribution to sustainable agricultural systems.     

Scenario analysis of the future of medicines.

Planning future policy for medicines poses difficult problems. The main players in the drug business have their own views as to how the world around them functions and how the future of medicines should be shaped. In this paper we show how a scenario analysis can provide a powerful teaching device to readjust peoples'' preconceptions. Scenarios are plausible, not probable or preferable, portraits of alternative futures. A series of four of alternative scenarios were constructed: "sobriety in sufficiency," "risk avoidance," "technology on demand," and "free market unfettered." Each scenario was drawn as a narrative, documented quantitatively wherever possible, that described the world as it might be if particular trends were to dominate development. The medical community and health policy markers may use scenarios to take a long term view in order to be prepared adequately for the future.     

旅游地生态效率测度的SBM-DEA模型及实证分析

旅游地是典型的人地关系相互作用的特殊区域,旅游地的生态效率研究是其制定与实施包容性、持续性发展政策与措施的基础。采用基于时间序列、包含非期望产出的SBM-DEA模型方法,构建旅游地生态效率测度模型及评价指标体系,以黄山风景区为例,利用1981—2014年的投入产出数据,测度旅游地复合系统的生态效率,分析其演化特征和阶段,并利用Tobit回归模型对其影响因素进行实证检验。结果表明:(1)34年来,黄山风景区旅游生态效率(综合效率)不断提升,且具较大发展潜力,在分解效率中,技术效率较高,规模效率次之,规模效率是决定综合效率的关键因素;(2)旅游生态效率的演化经历了初期低效、快速成长、成熟高效、下行风险四个阶段,不同阶段效率的特征不同,影响因素也存在差异;(3)旅游生态效率完成了由规模报酬递增向递减的过渡,资源要素的投入冗余已成为现阶段阻碍生态效率的进一步提高的关键因素;(4)旅游发展水平、产业结构和技术水平对生态效率产生显著的正向影响,投资水平产生显著的负向影响,以废弃物末端治理为表征的环保规制对生态效率的提升作用并不显著。文章最后提出,在山岳型风景区发展初期,应尽可能扩大资源要素投入规模,进入成熟阶段后,则转向逐渐控制投入规模,改善技术能力和资源配置能力,摒弃过度依靠资源消耗和环境污染的粗放式发展模式,走精细化、可持续的发展道路。     

On the morality of vaccination tourism

Vaccination tourism (whereby citizens of one nation travel to a different, usually more developed nation to receive a vaccine unavailable or with little availability at home) during the COVID pandemic raises a host of moral issues and is usually met with criticism. From the perspective of the society of origin, the criticism is that those who use their socio-economic privileges to go abroad and receive the vaccine ahead of other citizens instead of ‘making the line’ act objectionably because in doing so they use their purchasing power to obtain a benefit that should not be distributed like any other product in the market. From the perspective of the society of destination, the criticism is that citizens and residents should receive the vaccines first; after all, their government purchased vaccines (with their taxes) to immunize the local population. The paper calls into question both objections to vaccination tourism. There might be other reasons to oppose it, but this pair of objections cannot ground a moral criticism of the practice.     

Energy consumption and environmental degradation nexus: A systematic review and meta-analysis of fossil fuel and renewable energy consumption

This study examines the energy consumption and environmental degradation nexus at a disaggregated (i.e., fossil fuel energy and renewable energy) level by investigating bibliometric indicators on a global scale. For this purpose, the study considers a number of studies published between 1980 and 2021 that were selected on the Web of Science (WoS) database based on relevant keywords. A bibliometric analysis was done through VOSviewer from a comparative perspective. Thus, 17,298 studies on fossil fuel energy consumption & environmental degradation and 62,002 studies on renewable energy consumption & environmental degradation were identified. Bibliometric indicators and network visualizations were used to present the results, which show: (i) the topic of disaggregated energy consumption and environmental degradation has been a problem since 1991; (ii) the number of renewable energy-related studies has exceeded the number of fossil fuel-related studies regarding environmental degradation; (iii) many of the studies in both disaggregated groups fall under the categories of energy fuels, environmental sciences, and green sustainable science technology, respectively; (iv) most of the studies have been published by Elsevier; (v) most of the researchers are from the United States of America (USA), whereas those from China and Pakistan have recently come to the fore. Hence, this study assesses the emerging trends in the literature on the energy consumption and environmental degradation nexus at a disaggregated level. Moreover, potential issues to be included by future studies are suggested.     

节律性转录因子驱动哺乳动物昼夜节律生物钟简

生物体通过内在的昼夜节律生物钟调整生理行为和代谢生化反应来适应昼夜环境周期性变化。哺乳动物的昼夜节律生物钟核心连锁环通过驱动特异性的转录因子来维持整个基因组转录的节律性。生物钟与代谢的内稳态密切相关,生物钟的紊乱会引起各种疾病,该领域的研究能够促进时间疗法的发展来维持生命的健康,甚至可以延缓衰老。     

Climate and tourism in the Black Forest during the warm season

Climate, climate change and tourism all interact. Part of the public discussion about climate change focusses on the tourism sector, with direct and indirect impacts being of equally high relevance. Climate and tourism are closely linked. Thus, climate is a very decisive factor in choices both of destination and of type of journey (active holidays, wellness, and city tours) in the tourism sector. However, whether choices about destinations or types of trip will alter with climate change is difficult to predict. Future climates can be simulated and projected, and the tendencies of climate parameters can be estimated using global and regional climate models. In this paper, the focus is on climate change in the mountainous regions of southwest Germany – the Black Forest. The Black Forest is one of the low mountain ranges where both winter and summer tourism are vulnerable to climate change due to its southern location; the strongest climatic changes are expected in areas covering the south and southwest of Germany. Moreover, as the choice of destination is highly dependent on good weather, a climatic assessment for tourism is essential. Thus, the aim of this study was to estimate climatic changes in mountainous regions during summer, especially for tourism and recreation. The assessment method was based on human-biometeorology as well as tourism-climatologic approaches. Regional climate simulations based on the regional climate model REMO were used for tourism-related climatic analyses. Emission scenarios A1B and B1 were considered for the time period 2021 to 2050, compared to the 30-year base period of 1971–2000, particularly for the warm period of the year, defined here as the months of March–November. In this study, we quantified the frequency, but not the means, of climate parameters. The study results show that global and regional warming is reflected in an increase in annual mean air temperature, especially in autumn. Changes in the spring show a slight negative trend, which is in line with the trend of a decrease in physiologically equivalent temperature as well as in thermal comfort conditions. Due to the rising air temperature, heat stress as well as sultry conditions are projected to become more frequent, affecting human health and recreation, especially at lower lying altitudes. The tops of the mountains and higher elevated areas still have the advantage of offering comfortable climatic conditions.     

Clocks not winding down: unravelling circadian networks

An intrinsic clock enables an organism to anticipate environmental changes and use energy sources more efficiently, thereby conferring an adaptive advantage. Having an intrinsic clock to orchestrate rhythms is also important for human health. The use of systems biology approaches has advanced our understanding of mechanistic features of circadian oscillators over the past decade. The field is now in a position to develop a multiscale view of circadian systems, from the molecular level to the intact organism, and to apply this information for the development of new therapeutic strategies or for enhancing agricultural productivity in crops.     

植物园的“最佳未来”

国立威尔斯 (士 )植物园是按里约全球最高会议明确的可持续性原则而建立的第一个国家植物园。可持续性虽然是其总方针 ,却并非其焦点 ,只是其工作的准则。在该园 ,持续性是建立在社会、政治、经济、文化、精神和环境诸方面的整体性基础上 ,该园也提供了广泛的建议有助于人们对未来作出新的选择。它是“最佳未来”的旗手。本文论述了该园是怎样通过最佳未来的途径来帮助复苏地区经济。事例包括 :生物技术孵化器、合作旅游、地方产品开发和园内零售及国内传统康复和学习中心。也对园内“活机器”的永循环、生长量活锅炉、有机农场、废石用作覆盖、如何建球形增温园和有机菜园等提供想法。概括了该园的科学作用和在该地区的植物保护工作中的作用。本文的重点是以文中的观点说明植物园可以而且应该帮助增加财富 ,改善人民健康和促进社会稳定     

Justice and Medical Research: A Global Perspective

Economic globalization has profound implications for health. The scale of injustice at a global level, reflected in inexorably widening disparities in wealth and health, also has critical implications for health related research – in particular when the opportunities for exploiting research subjects are carefully considered. The challenge of developing universal guidelines for international clinical research is addressed against the background of a polarizing, yet interdependent, world in which all are ultimately threatened by lack of social justice. It is proposed that in such a world there is a need for new ways of thinking about research and its relevance to health at a global level. Responsibility to use knowledge and power wisely requires more radical changes to guidelines for research ethics than are currently under consideration.     

舟山群岛生态系统健康与旅游经济协调发展评价

在界定生态系统健康与旅游经济协调发展定义的基础上,构建了海岛目的地生态系统健康和旅游经济协调发展评价的指标体系,采用改进的TOPSIS法对2000—2012年舟山群岛生态系统健康和海岛旅游业的协调发展状况进行了定量评价,运用障碍度模型对其协调发展的障碍因素进行了分析,并使用Logistic模型对2013—2015年协调发展状态进行了预测。研究表明:(1)2000—2012年,舟山群岛海岛生态系统健康和旅游经济的静态协调度和动态协调度总体均呈持增加趋势,静态协调度由0.6453增加到0.7301,动态协调度由0.6453增加至0.6874;(2)2000—2012年,舟山群岛生态系统健康和旅游经济由初级协调发展型向中级协调发展型演化,其中2000—2007年为初级协调发展型,2008—2012年为中级协调发展型;(3)海洋经济占GDP比重、近海海域环境功能区达标率、环保投入占GDP比重、公路网密度、城镇化率是影响舟山群岛生态系统健康和旅游经济协调发展的主要障碍因子;(4)2013—2015年,舟山群岛生态系统健康和旅游经济的静态协调度预测值为0.8335、0.8442和0.8543,动态协调度的预测值为0.6885、0.6916和0.6947,说明两者的协调发展状态将持续改善。     

长江中游城市群环境规制对旅游产业生态效率的影响及空间分异研究

随着旅游产业的快速发展，其对生态环境的负面影响逐渐增大。为缓解当前旅游经济发展与生态环境保护间存在的矛盾，政府有必要在制度层面发挥其对旅游企业的约束作用，减轻旅游环境压力，实现旅游产业可持续发展。基于此，首先采用超效率SBM模型测算2006-2017年长江中游城市群旅游产业生态效率。然后运用重心模型、标准差椭圆等地学方法刻画其空间格局演化特征。最后，以广义最小二乘法建立面板数据模型，分析环境规制对城市群旅游产业生态效率影响。主要结论为：1）2006-2017年长江中游城市群旅游产业生态效率总体始终处于生产前沿面以下，旅游产业生态发展的集约化程度较低。从区域尺度看，三大城市群间效率存在一定差异，环鄱阳湖城市群效率最大，而武汉城市圈最小。从空间格局上看，效率重心整体向东北方向移动，"东高-西低"的空间格局逐渐形成；2）三大子城市群环境规制与旅游产业生态效率间呈"U"型的非线性关系，表明当前总体环境规制水平仍然较低，对效率的增长起抑制作用，但从长远来看，随着环境规制的逐渐增强，其对旅游产业生态效率的影响开始向积极促进方向转变；3）三大子城市群环境规制对效率的影响程度不同，整体呈正向显著影响的城市数量较少，主要集聚在各子城市群的中心城市附近。     

旅游业对目的地生态系统服务价值的影响——以神农架为例

旅游业在给目的地带来经济增长的同时,也会对其生态环境造成一定影响。既有研究多关注旅游业对生态环境的压力,而较少关注旅游业对目的地生态系统服务价值(Ecosystem service value, ESV)的影响。为此,研究以“旅游社会-生态系统”为基础,构建了旅游业对目的地ESV的影响框架。以神农架为例,基于土地利用格局变化以及修正ESV价值当量,计算其2005—2018年ESV以及时空变化特点。通过地理加权回归(Geographically weighted regression, GWR)与增强回归树(Boosting regression tree, BRT)模型对距居民点距离、距景区距离、距酒店距离以及距道路距离等旅游因素对ESV的影响以及空间差异进行了研究,并得到以下主要结论：(1)神农架土地利用格局变化显著,耕地、林地、草地和未利用地面积总体减少,水域及建设用地面积总体增加。(2)神农架ESV呈逐年递增趋势,由2005年的33.58亿元增加至2018年的89.10亿元。11项生态系统服务功能所占价值比例稳定,以气候调节、水文调节、土壤保持及生物多样性为主。ESV在空间上呈现...     

A global veterinary medical perspective on the concept of one health: focus on livestock

While globalization has yielded many benefits for society, it also has created many new challenges, particularly with regard to animal, human, and environmental health. Livestock contribute significantly to the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people worldwide and global demand for foods of animal origin has been steadily increasing for decades. It is therefore critical to recognize and understand the global dimension of livestock production and its impacts. Despite the clear benefits of livestock for humans, some livestock production practices are associated with certain forms of environmental degradation, and trade in livestock and livestock products can contribute to the emergence and spread of new animal and zoonotic diseases. This article provides a review of the major global trends affecting livestock production and trade, related implications for human, animal, and environmental health, and reasons why veterinarians should embrace a One Health approach in dealing with disease problems in this era of globalization.     

Climate change and vector-borne diseases: what are the implications for public health research and policy?

Vector-borne diseases continue to contribute significantly to the global burden of disease, and cause epidemics that disrupt health security and cause wider socioeconomic impacts around the world. All are sensitive in different ways to weather and climate conditions, so that the ongoing trends of increasing temperature and more variable weather threaten to undermine recent global progress against these diseases. Here, we review the current state of the global public health effort to address this challenge, and outline related initiatives by the World Health Organization (WHO) and its partners. Much of the debate to date has centred on attribution of past changes in disease rates to climate change, and the use of scenario-based models to project future changes in risk for specific diseases. While these can give useful indications, the unavoidable uncertainty in such analyses, and contingency on other socioeconomic and public health determinants in the past or future, limit their utility as decision-support tools. For operational health agencies, the most pressing need is the strengthening of current disease control efforts to bring down current disease rates and manage short-term climate risks, which will, in turn, increase resilience to long-term climate change. The WHO and partner agencies are working through a range of programmes to (i) ensure political support and financial investment in preventive and curative interventions to bring down current disease burdens; (ii) promote a comprehensive approach to climate risk management; (iii) support applied research, through definition of global and regional research agendas, and targeted research initiatives on priority diseases and population groups.