舟山群岛生态系统健康与旅游经济协调发展评价

在界定生态系统健康与旅游经济协调发展定义的基础上,构建了海岛目的地生态系统健康和旅游经济协调发展评价的指标体系,采用改进的TOPSIS法对2000—2012年舟山群岛生态系统健康和海岛旅游业的协调发展状况进行了定量评价,运用障碍度模型对其协调发展的障碍因素进行了分析,并使用Logistic模型对2013—2015年协调发展状态进行了预测。研究表明:(1)2000—2012年,舟山群岛海岛生态系统健康和旅游经济的静态协调度和动态协调度总体均呈持增加趋势,静态协调度由0.6453增加到0.7301,动态协调度由0.6453增加至0.6874;(2)2000—2012年,舟山群岛生态系统健康和旅游经济由初级协调发展型向中级协调发展型演化,其中2000—2007年为初级协调发展型,2008—2012年为中级协调发展型;(3)海洋经济占GDP比重、近海海域环境功能区达标率、环保投入占GDP比重、公路网密度、城镇化率是影响舟山群岛生态系统健康和旅游经济协调发展的主要障碍因子;(4)2013—2015年,舟山群岛生态系统健康和旅游经济的静态协调度预测值为0.8335、0.8442和0.8543,动态协调度的预测值为0.6885、0.6916和0.6947,说明两者的协调发展状态将持续改善。

Coordinated development evaluation of the ecosystem health and the tourism economy Zhoushan Islands

Based on the defining the concept of coordinated development evaluation of the ecosystem health and tourism economy, this paper established an indicator system of coordinated development evaluation of the ecosystem health and the tourism economy of islands destination. By using an improved TOPSIS algorithm, this paper carried out a quantitative evaluation of Zhoushan Islands from 2000 to 2012 in terms of the coordinated development status of its ecosystem health and islands tourism economy. To be specific, an obstacle degree model was firstly used to analyze the obstacles of the coordinated development, and then a Logistic model was used to predict the status of the coordinated development from 2013 to 2015. The results showed that: 1). Between 2000 and 2012, the static and dynamic coordinated development coefficients of ecosystem health and the tourism economy of Zhoushan islands had been increasing consistently with the static coordinated coefficient rising from 0.6453 to 0.7301, and the dynamic coordinated coefficient rising from 0.6453 to 0.6874; 2) between 2000 and 2012, the coordinated development of the ecosystem health and the tourism economy of Zhoushan Islands had evolved from a primary coordinated stage to an intermediate coordinated stage. To be specific, the primary coordinated stage were found located between 2000 and 2007, and the intermediate coordinated stage were found located between 2008 and 2012; 3) The ocean economy/GDP ratio, the qualification rate of the offshore environmental function zone, the environmental protection cost/GDP ratio, the density of the road network, the urbanization rate are the major obstacles influencing the coordinated development of the ecosystem health and the tourism economy of Zhoushan islands; 4) It is forecasted that between 2013 and 2015, the predicted static coordinated coefficients of ecosystem health and the tourism economy of Zhoushan islands will be 0.8335, 0.8442 and 0.8543, and the dynamic coordinated coefficients will be 0.6885, 0.6916 and 0.6947, which means the coordinated development between both will keep improving consistently.