The phenological calendar of Estonia and its correlation with mean air temperature

A phenological calendar with 24 phenological phases was compiled for three meteorological stations in Estonia for the period 1948–1996. We analysed the length of the vegetation period, the order of the phenological phases, and the variability and possible changes for two incremental climate change scenarios (±2°C), and compared the results with examples of extreme years. The statistically significant linear trends show that the spring and summer-time phenological phases occurred earlier and the autumn phases moved later during the study period. The study of extreme (minimum and maximum) years shows that 70% of the earliest dates of the 24 phases studied have occurred during the last 15 years with an absolute maximum in 1990 with 8 extreme phases. The phenological spring has shortened (slope –0.23), the summer period has lengthened (slope 0.04), and the autumn has lengthened too. The length of the growing season, determined by the vegetation of rye, has shortened (slope –0.09), which could be the result of changing agricultural technology. The correlation between the starting dates of the phenological phases with the air temperature of the previous 2–3 months is relatively high (0.6–0.8). Studying the +2°C and –2°C scenarios and values for the extreme years shows that, in the case of short variations of air temperature, the phenological development remains within the limits of natural variation. Received: 29 November 1999 / Revised: 15 May 2000 / Accepted: 16 May 2000     

Possible impacts of climate change on natural vegetation in Saxony (Germany)

Recent climate changes have had distinct impacts on plant development in many parts of the world. Higher air temperatures, mainly since the end of the 1980s, have led to advanced timing of phenological phases and consequently to an extension of the general growing season. For this reason it is interesting to know how plants will respond to future climate change. In this study simple phenological models have been developed to estimate the impact of climate change on the natural vegetation in Saxony. The estimations are based on a regional climate scenario for the state of Saxony. The results indicate that changes in the timing of phenophases could continue in the future. Due to distinct temperature changes in winter and in summer, mainly the spring and summer phases will be advanced. Spring phenophases, such as leafing or flowering, show the strongest trends. Depending on the species, the average timing of these phenophases could be advanced by 3–27 days by 2050. Phenophases in autumn show relatively small changes. Thus, the annual growth period of individual trees will be further extended, mainly because of the shift of spring phases. Frequent droughts in summer and in autumn can compensate for the earlier leafing of trees, because in this case leaf colouring and leaf fall would start some weeks earlier. In such cases, the growing period would not be really extended, but shifted to the beginning of the year.     

河南林州植物物候变化特征及其原因分析

根据河南省林州市1987年至2004年的物候和气象资料,运用一元线性回归法和相关分析法分析了林州市近20年来植物物候的变化特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明,近20年来,林州地区的毛白杨(Populus tomentosa Carr.)、刺槐(Robinia hispida Linn.)、梧桐(Firmiana simplex W.F.Wight)和白梨(Pyrus bretschneideri Rehd.)等木本植物的春季物候期提前,秋季物候期变化不一致,生长期延长;车前(Plantago asiatica Linn.)、藜(Chenopodium album Linn.)和苍耳(Xanthium sibiricum Patr.)等草本植物的春季物候期变化不一致,秋季物候期均提前,生长期缩短。木本植物春季物候变化受冬末春初气温变化的影响最大、日照次之、降水最小,秋季物候期对气候变化基本没有响应;草本植物的物候期主要受气温影响,降水能促进草本植物开花。木本植物的春季物候变化可作为反映气候变化的代用指标。     

西安4种落叶乔木物候期对气候变化的响应

以西安1979—2018年的气候资料和植物物候观测资料为基础,采用分段回归和趋势倾向率等方法,分析了毛白杨(Populus tomentosa)、杜梨(Pyrus betulifolia)、七叶树(Aesculus chinensis)和灯台树(Bothrocaryum controversum)4种落叶乔木展叶盛期和叶全变色期的生长趋势,使用偏相关分析探讨了气温、降水和日照时数与物候期的关系并通过偏最小二乘回归(Partial Least Squares, PLS)判断气候变量对物候期的综合影响。结果表明：(1)1979—2018年,4种乔木的生长季长度延长,整体表现为春季物候期提前,秋季物候期推迟;(2)展叶盛期物候指标与叶全变色期物候指标,转折均发生在1982年;转折后,物候特征变化显著,春季物候的提前速率和秋季物候的推迟速率加快,展叶盛期平均提前3.8d/10a,叶全变色期平均推迟4.7d/10a;(3)展叶盛期与春季气温表现为极显著负相关,叶变色期与秋季气温表现为显著正相关;降水对植物物候的影响不显著;春季物候与日照时数呈现极显著负相关关系,秋季物候期与日照时数呈不显著正相关...     

Climate change fingerprints in recent European plant phenology

A paper published in Global Change Biology in 2006 revealed that phenological responses in 1971–2000 matched the warming pattern in Europe, but a lack of chilling and adaptation in farming may have reversed these findings. Therefore, for 1951–2018 in a corresponding data set, we determined changes as linear trends and analysed their variation by plant traits/groups, across season and time as well as their attribution to warming following IPCC methodology. Although spring and summer phases in wild plants advanced less (maximum advances in 1978–2007), more (~90%) and more significant (~60%) negative trends were present, being stronger in early spring, at higher elevations, but smaller for nonwoody insect‐pollinated species. These trends were strongly attributable to winter and spring warming. Findings for crop spring phases were similar, but were less pronounced. There were clearer and attributable signs for a delayed senescence in response to winter and spring warming. These changes resulted in a longer growing season, but a constant generative period in wild plants and a shortened one in agricultural crops. Phenology determined by farmers’ decisions differed noticeably from the purely climatic driven phases with smaller percentages of advancing (~75%) trends, but farmers’ spring activities were the only group with reinforced advancement, suggesting adaptation. Trends in farmers’ spring and summer activities were very likely/likely associated with the warming pattern. In contrast, the advance in autumn farming phases was significantly associated with below average summer warming. Thus, under ongoing climate change with decreased chilling the advancing phenology in spring and summer is still attributable to warming; even the farmers’ activities in these seasons mirror, to a lesser extent, the warming. Our findings point to adaptation to climate change in agriculture and reveal diverse implications for terrestrial ecosystems; the strong attribution supports the necessary mediation of warming impacts to the general public.     

Phenological responses of plants to climate change in an urban environment

Global climate change is likely to alter the phenological patterns of plants due to the controlling effects of climate on plant ontogeny, especially in an urbanized environment. We studied relationships between various phenophases (i.e., seasonal biological events) and interannual variations of air temperature in three woody plant species (Prunus davidiana, Hibiscus syriacus, and Cercis chinensis) in the Beijing Metropolis, China, based on phenological data for the period 1962–2004 and meteorological data for the period 1951–2004. Analysis of phenology and climate data indicated significant changes in spring and autumn phenophases and temperatures. Changes in phenophases were observed for all the three species, consistent with patterns of rising air temperatures in the Beijing Metropolis. The changing phenology in the three plant species was reflected mainly as advances of the spring phenophases and delays in the autumn phenophases, but with strong variations among species and phenophases in response to different temperature indices. Most phenophases (both spring and autumn phenophases) had significant relationships with temperatures of the preceding months. There existed large inter- and intra-specific variations, however, in the responses of phenology to climate change. It is clear that the urban heat island effect from 1978 onwards is a dominant cause of the observed phenological changes. Differences in phenological responses to climate change may cause uncertain ecological consequences, with implications for ecosystem stability and function in urban environments.     

Trends in phenological phases in Europe between 1951 and 1996

Increases in air temperature due to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect can be detected easily in the phenological data of Europe within the last four decades because spring phenological events are particularly sensitive to temperature. Our new analysis of observational data from the International Phenological Gardens in Europe for the 1959–1996 period revealed that spring events, such as leaf unfolding, have advanced on average by 6.3 days (–0.21 day/year), whereas autumn events, such as leaf colouring, have been delayed on average by 4.5 days (+0.15 day/year). Thus, the average annual growing season has lengthened on average by 10.8 days since the early 1960s. For autumn events, differences between mean trends of species could not be detected, but for spring events there were differences between species, with the higher trends for leaf unfolding and flowering of shrubs indicating that changes in events occurring in the early spring are more distinct. These observed trends in plant phenological events in the International Phenological Gardens and results of other phenological studies in Europe, summarised in this study, are consistent with AVHRR satellite measurements of the normalized difference vegetation index from 1981 to 1991 and with an analysis of long-term measurements of the annual cycle of CO₂ concentration in Hawaii and Alaska, also indicating a global lengthening of the growing season. Received: 21 October 1999 / Accepted: 2 March 2000     

Advanced departure dates in long-distance migratory raptors

Evidences for phenological changes in response to climate change are now numerous. One of the most documented changes has been the advance of spring arrival dates in migratory birds. However, the effects of climate change on subsequent events of the annual cycle remain poorly studied and understood. Moreover, the rare studies on autumn migration have mainly concerned passerines. Here, we investigated whether raptor species have changed their autumn migratory phenology during the past 30 years at one of the most important convergent points of western European migration routes in France, the Organbidexka pass, in the Western Pyrenees. Eight out of the 14 studied raptor species showed significant phenological shifts during 1981–2008. Long-distance migrants displayed stronger phenological responses than short-distance migrants, and advanced their mean passage dates significantly. As only some short-distance migrants were found to delay their autumn migration and as their trends in breeding and migrating numbers were not significantly negative, we were not able to show any possible settling process of raptor populations. Negative trends in numbers of migrating raptors were found to be related to weaker phenological responses. Further studies using data from other migration sites are necessary to investigate eventual changes in migration routes and possible settling process.     

Effects of recent warm and cold spells on European plant phenology

Climate change is already altering the magnitude and/or frequency of extreme events which will in turn affect plant fitness more than any change in the average. Although the fingerprint of anthropogenic warming in recent phenological records is well understood, the impacts of extreme events have been largely neglected. Thus, the temperature response of European phenological records to warm and cold spells was studied using the COST725 database. We restricted our analysis to the period 1951–2004 due to better spatial coverage. Warm and cold spells were identified using monthly mean ENSEMBLES temperature data on a 0.5° grid for Europe. Their phenological impact was assessed as anomalies from maps displaying mean onsets for 1930–1939. Our results clearly exhibit continental cold spells predominating in the period 1951–1988, especially during the growing season, whereas the period from 1989 onwards was mainly characterised by warm spells in all seasons. The impacts of these warm/cold spells on the onset of phenological seasons differed strongly depending on species, phase and timing. “False” phases such as the sowing of winter cereals hardly reacted to summer warm/cold spells; only the sowing of summer cereals mirrored spring temperature warm/cold spells. The heading dates of winter cereals did not reveal any consistent results probably due to fewer warm/cold spells identified in the relevant late spring months. Apple flowering and the harvest of winter cereals were the best indicators of warm/cold spells in early spring and summer, also being spatially coherent with the patterns of warm/cold spells.     

近30年北京自然历的主要物候期、物候季节变化及归因

根据中国物候观测网资料并结合气象观测数据, 重新编制了北京颐和园地区1981-2010年的自然历。通过与原自然历比较, 揭示了北京物候季节变化特征, 分析了1963年以来物候季节变化的可能原因。研究发现: 与原自然历相比, 1981-2010年北京的春、夏季开始时间分别提前了2天和5天, 秋、冬季开始时间分别推迟了1天和4天; 夏、秋季长度分别延长了6天和3天, 春、冬季长度则分别缩短了3天和6天; 各个物候期的平均日期、最早日期、最晚日期在春、夏季以提前为主, 在秋、冬季以推迟为主; 且春、秋、冬季节内部分物候期次序也出现了不同程度的变化。春、夏、冬季开始日期前的气温变化和秋季开始日期前的日照时数变化可能是北京颐和园地区物候季节变化的主要原因; 不同物种、不同物候期对气温变化的响应程度不同, 导致了物候季节内各种物候现象出现的先后顺序发生变化。     

Simulating phenological shifts in French temperate forests under two climatic change scenarios and four driving global circulation models

After modeling the large-scale climate response patterns of leaf unfolding, leaf coloring and growing season length of evergreen and deciduous French temperate trees, we predicted the effects of eight future climate scenarios on phenological events. We used the ground observations from 103 temperate forests (10 species and 3,708 trees) from the French Renecofor Network and for the period 1997–2006. We applied RandomForest algorithms to predict phenological events from climatic and ecological variables. With the resulting models, we drew maps of phenological events throughout France under present climate and under two climatic change scenarios (A2, B2) and four global circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and PCM). We compared current observations and predicted values for the periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. On average, spring development of oaks precedes that of beech, which precedes that of conifers. Annual cycles in budburst and leaf coloring are highly correlated with January, March–April and October–November weather conditions through temperature, global solar radiation or potential evapotranspiration depending on species. At the end of the twenty-first century, each model predicts earlier budburst (mean: 7 days) and later leaf coloring (mean: 13 days) leading to an average increase in the growing season of about 20 days (for oaks and beech stands). The A2-HadCM3 hypothesis leads to an increase of up to 30 days in many areas. As a consequence of higher predicted warming during autumn than during winter or spring, shifts in leaf coloring dates appear greater than trends in leaf unfolding. At a regional scale, highly differing climatic response patterns were observed.     

Changing temperature regimes have advanced the phenology of Odonata in the Netherlands

Abstract.  1. Responses of biota to climate change have been well documented for a restricted number of taxa. This study examined shifts in phenology of 37 species of the aquatic insect order Odonata in the Netherlands over the last decade.
2. The present study shows that adults of the Dutch dragonflies and damselflies have advanced their flight dates over recent years due to complex effects of changing temperature regimes on the timing of adult flight dates.
3. Flight dates did not respond to changes in autumn/winter temperatures, advanced with increases in spring temperatures of the focal and previous year, and delayed with increases in summer temperatures of the previous year. Climate change consequently advanced the flight dates of the Odonata because only spring temperatures have increased during the study period.
4. The findings imply that climate change can evoke strong phenological responses in aquatic insects. Moreover, shifts in phenology due to climate change are likely to vary both spatially or temporally, depending on the exact nature of climate change.     

Phenological changes and reduced seasonal synchrony in western Poland

Botanical gardens offer continuity for phenological recording in observers, protocols and plant specimens that may not be achievable from other sources. Here, we examine phenological change and synchrony from one such garden in western Poland. We analysed 66 botanical phenophases and 18 interphase intervals recorded between 1977 and 2007 from the Poznań Botanical Garden. These were examined for trends through time and responsiveness to temperature. Furthermore, we derived measures of synchrony for start of spring and end of autumn events to assess if these had changed over time. All 39 events with a mean date before mid-July demonstrated a significant negative relationship with temperature. Where autumn events were significantly related to temperature, they indicated a positive relationship. Typically, spring events showed an advance over time and autumn events a delay. Interphase intervals tended to lengthen over the study period. The measures of synchrony changed significantly over time suggesting less synchrony among spring events and also among autumn events. In combination, these results suggest increases in growing season length. However, responses to a changing climate were species-specific. Thus, the transitions from winter into spring and from autumn into winter are becoming less clearly defined.     

Asymmetric effects of cooler and warmer winters on beech phenology last beyond spring

In temperate trees, the timings of plant growth onset and cessation affect biogeochemical cycles, water, and energy balance. Currently, phenological studies largely focus on specific phenophases and on their responses to warming. How differently spring phenology responds to the warming and cooling, and affects the subsequent phases, has not been yet investigated in trees. Here, we exposed saplings of Fagus sylvatica L. to warmer and cooler climate during the winter 2013–2014 by conducting a reciprocal transplant experiment between two elevations (1,340 vs. 371 m a.s.l., ca. 6°C difference) in the Swiss Jura mountains. To test the legacy effects of earlier or later budburst on the budset timing, saplings were moved back to their original elevation shortly after the occurrence of budburst in spring 2014. One degree decrease in air temperature in winter/spring resulted in a delay of 10.9 days in budburst dates, whereas one degree of warming advanced the date by 8.8 days. Interestingly, we also found an asymmetric effect of the warmer winter vs. cooler winter on the budset timing in late summer. Budset of saplings that experienced a cooler winter was delayed by 31 days compared to the control, whereas it was delayed by only 10 days in saplings that experienced a warmer winter. Budburst timing in 2015 was not significantly impacted by the artificial advance or delay of the budburst timing in 2014, indicating that the legacy effects of the different phenophases might be reset during each winter. Adapting phenological models to the whole annual phenological cycle, and considering the different response to cooling and warming, would improve predictions of tree phenology under future climate warming conditions.     

Larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than spring leaf‐out phenology

Climate warming is substantially shifting the leaf phenological events of plants, and thereby impacting on their individual fitness and also on the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Previous studies have largely focused on the climate impact on spring phenology, and to date the processes underlying leaf senescence and their associated environmental drivers remain poorly understood. In this study, experiments with temperature gradients imposed during the summer and autumn were conducted on saplings of European beech to explore the temperature responses of leaf senescence. An additional warming experiment during winter enabled us to assess the differences in temperature responses of spring leaf‐out and autumn leaf senescence. We found that warming significantly delayed the dates of leaf senescence both during summer and autumn warming, with similar temperature sensitivities (6–8 days delay per °C warming), suggesting that, in the absence of water and nutrient limitation, temperature may be a dominant factor controlling the leaf senescence in European beech. Interestingly, we found a significantly larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than of spring leaf‐out. This suggests a possible larger contribution of delays in autumn senescence, than of the advancement in spring leaf‐out, to extending the growing season under future warmer conditions.     

近55a来河西走廊荒漠绿洲区季节变化特征及其对胡杨年生长期的影响

利用河西走廊荒漠绿洲胡杨林集中分布区的4个气象站点1955-2009年日平均气温资料,采用5d滑动平均、气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall和滑动t检验等方法,分析其四季开始日与长度的变化特征及其对胡杨年生长期的影响。结果表明:近55a来,河西走廊荒漠绿洲区四季开始日主要表现为春、夏和秋季提早,冬季推迟的变化趋势,并以夏季提早最显著,且以21世纪初更突出。研究区平均四季长短变化特征为:冬季>夏季>春季>秋季。胡杨年生长期有开始日提早、终止日推后的趋势,且推迟趋势更明显;胡杨年生长期天数具有延长趋势。突变分析表明:春季开始日在1969年和2001年发生突变,夏、秋开始日则分别在1998年、 1985年和1997年发生突变,而冬季开始日发生突变的时间早于其它3季,为1985年;胡杨年生长期开始日具有多个突变,分别在1961年、1973年和1997年发生突变。显然,研究区胡杨对气候变化的响应更敏感。     

暖温带乔木和灌木物候变化及对气候变化的响应

根据2003-2014年气象数据和暖温带3种乔木(辽东栎、五角枫和核桃楸)和3种灌木(土庄绣线菊、毛叶丁香和六道木)的物候观测数据资料, 采用气候倾向率和回归分析等方法, 观察乔木和灌木物候变化特征的差异, 分析温度、降水以及乔木、灌木的物候变化趋势, 同时对气象因子与乔木和灌木物候期的相关关系进行研究。结果表明: ①研究期间, 北京东灵山平均气温呈不显著的上升趋势, 气候倾向率为0.200℃·10a–1, 春季(3–5月)和夏季(6-8月)温度显著上升; 降水量呈下降趋势, 平均减少71.630 mm·10a–1, 总体呈暖、干的趋势。②3种乔木的生长季长度都缩短, 辽东栎、五角枫和核桃楸平均生长季长度分别缩短50.70 d·10 a–1、29.83 d·10a–1和22.36 d·10a–1。3种灌木的生长季长度也都缩短, 土庄绣线菊、毛叶丁香和六道木的平均生长季长度分别缩短42.55 d·10a–1、42.76 d·10a–1和38.15 d·10a–1。乔木和灌木的物候变化趋势相同, 整体表现为春季物候推迟, 秋季物候提前, 生长季长度都缩短且生长季长度相差不大。乔木和灌木都表现出芽期推迟最明显, 每10年推迟达19天以上。③乔木和灌木各物候期与气温总体表现为负相关, 即气温升高, 物候期提前, 其相关性显示出夏季(6-8月)温度对植被物候期影响较大, 夏季温度与各物候期表现为正相关, 即夏季温度升高, 物候期推迟。同时乔木和灌木与总体降水没有明显的相关关系, 但秋季物候与不同时段降水表现不同的相关性, 由此可知夏季温度变化对木本植物春季物候(出芽期、展叶期和首花期)的影响更大, 而秋季物候(叶变色期和落叶期)受温度和降水共同影响。     

Variations in satellite-derived phenology in China's temperate vegetation

The relationship between vegetation phenology and climate is a crucial topic in global change research because it indicates dynamic responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate changes. In this study, we investigate the possible impact of recent climate changes on growing season duration in the temperate vegetation of China, using the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR)/normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) biweekly time-series data collected from January 1982 to December 1999 and concurrent mean temperature and precipitation data. The results show that over the study period, the growing season duration has lengthened by 1.16 days yr⁻¹ in temperate region of China. The green-up of vegetation has advanced in spring by 0.79 days yr⁻¹ and the dormancy delayed in autumn by 0.37 days yr⁻¹. The dates of onset for phenological events are most significantly related with the mean temperature during the preceding 2–3 months. A warming in the early spring (March to early May) by 1°C could cause an earlier onset of green-up of 7.5 days, whereas the same increase of mean temperature during autumn (mid-August through early October) could lead to a delay of 3.8 days in vegetation dormancy. Variations in precipitation also influenced the duration of growing season, but such influence differed among vegetation types and phenological phases.     

Variable shifts in spring and autumn migration phenology in North American songbirds associated with climate change

Monitoring studies find that the timing of spring bird migration has advanced in recent decades, especially in Europe. Results for autumn migration have been mixed. Using data from Powdermill Nature Reserve, a banding station in western Pennsylvania, USA, we report an analysis of migratory timing in 78 songbird species from 1961 to 2006. Spring migration became significantly earlier over the 46-year period, and autumn migration showed no overall change. There was much variation among species in phenological change, especially in autumn. Change in timing was unrelated to summer range (local vs. northern breeders) or the number of broods per year, but autumn migration became earlier in neotropical migrants and later in short-distance migrants. The migratory period for many species lengthened because late phases of migration remained unchanged or grew later as early phases became earlier. There was a negative correlation between spring and autumn in long-term change, and this caused dramatic adjustments in the amount of time between migrations: the intermigratory periods of 10 species increased or decreased by > 15 days. Year-to-year changes in timing were correlated with local temperature (detrended) and, in autumn, with a regional climate index (detrended North Atlantic Oscillation). These results illustrate a complex and dynamic annual cycle in songbirds, with responses to climate change differing among species and migration seasons.     

黄河流域植被时空变化及其对气候要素的响应

在气候变化和人类活动的双重作用下,黄河流域生态环境不断发生变化。探讨植被生长动态对于实施生态保护政策至关重要。利用Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer(AVHRR) Leaf Area Index(LAI)遥感资料,结合气候要素数据,分析1981—2017年黄河流域植被覆盖的时空分布特征,探讨气候要素对其变化的影响及贡献率。研究结果表明：(1)时序上,黄河流域植被覆盖呈显著增长趋势,夏季植被覆盖的增长幅度和年际波动最大,冬季植被覆盖呈缓慢平稳增长,波动最小。(2)空间上,植被覆盖显著提高的区域占整个区域的52.1%,主要分布在中东部平原;显著降低的区域占4%,主要分布在北部和西部高原山地;生态脆弱的区域植被覆盖率大多有不同程度的提高,但生态环境良好的部分区域植被覆盖率降低。(3)时序上,黄河流域植被覆盖与气温具有显著的正相关关系。春夏冬三季的植被覆盖与气温呈显著正相关,与降水呈不显著关系;秋季的植被覆盖与气温和降水量均呈显著正相关;春秋冬三季的植被覆盖与太阳辐射呈不显著负相关,夏季的植被覆盖与太阳辐射呈不显著正相关。春夏秋冬四季的气温对植被覆...