Small mammal (rodents and lagomorphs) European biogeography from the Late Oligocene to the mid Pliocene

Aim To analyse the fossil species assemblages of rodents and lagomorphs from the European Neogene in order to assess what factors control small mammal biogeography at a deep‐time evolutionary time‐scale. Location Western Europe: 626 fossil‐bearing localities located within 31 regions and distributed among 18 successive biochronological units ranging from c. 27 Ma (million years ago; Late Oligocene) to c. 3 Ma (mid Pliocene). Methods Taxonomically homogenized pooled regional assemblages are compared using the Raup and Crick index of faunal similarity; then, the inferred similarity matrices are visualized as neighbour‐joining trees and by projecting the statistically significant interregional similarities and dissimilarities onto palaeogeographical maps. The inferred biogeographical patterns are analysed and discussed in the light of known palaeogeographical and palaeoclimatic events. Results Successive time intervals with distinct biogeographical contexts are identified. Prior to c. 18 Ma (Late Oligocene and Early Miocene), a relative faunal homogeneity (high interregional connectivity) is observed all over Europe, a time when major geographical barriers and a weak climatic gradient are known. Then, from the beginning of the Middle Miocene onwards, the biogeography is marked by a significant decrease in interregional faunal affinities which matches a drastic global climatic degradation and leads, in the Late Miocene (c. 11 Ma), to a marked latitudinal pattern of small mammal distribution. In spite of a short rehomogenization around the Miocene/Pliocene boundary (6–4 Ma), the biogeography of small mammals in the mid Pliocene (c. 3 Ma) finally closely reflects the extant situation. Main conclusions The resulting biogeographical evolutionary scheme indicates that the extant endemic situation has deep historical roots corresponding to global tectonic and climatic events acting as primary drivers of long‐term changes. The correlation of biogeographical events with climatic changes emphasizes the prevalent role of the climate over geography in generating heterogeneous biogeographical patterns at the continental scale.     

Increasing frost risk associated with advanced citrus flowering dates in Kerman and Shiraz,Iran: 1960–2010

Flowering dates and the timing of late season frost are both driven by local ambient temperatures. However, under climatic warming observed over the past century, it remains uncertain how such impacts affect frost risk associated with plant phenophase shifts. Any increase in frost frequency or severity has the potential to damage flowers and their resultant yields and, in more extreme cases, the survival of the plant. An accurate assessment of the relationship between the timing of last frost events and phenological shifts associated with warmer climate is thus imperative. We investigate spring advances in citrus flowering dates (orange, tangerine, sweet lemon, sour lemon and sour orange) for Kerman and Shiraz, Iran from 1960 to 2010. These cities have experienced increases in both T _max and T _min, advances in peak flowering dates and changes in last frost dates over the study period. Based on daily instrumental climate records, the last frost dates for each year are compared with the peak flowering dates. For both cities, the rate of last frost advance lags behind the phenological advance, thus increasing frost risk. Increased frost risk will likely have considerable direct impacts on crop yields and on the associated capacity to adapt, given future climatic uncertainty.     

极端降水和极端干旱事件对草原生态系统的影响

当前人类活动的加剧显著地影响着全球大气循环的格局。大气循环的多个模型均预测未来全球气候变化的显著特征是极端降水事件和极端干旱事件发生的频率会显著增加。水分是干旱、半干旱区草原植物生长发育的限制性资源, 而草原生态系统是陆地生态系统中对降水格局变化非常敏感的系统。但是, 关于极端降水事件和极端干旱事件对草原生态系统结构和功能的影响还是以分散的个案研究为主, 甚至关于极端气候事件的定义迄今也不尽相同。为此, 该文在分析极端气候事件定义及其研究方法的基础上, 总结了极端降水事件和极端干旱事件对草原生态系统土壤水分和养分状况、植物生长发育和生理特性、群落结构、生产力和碳循环过程的影响, 并提出了未来极端气候事件研究中应重点关注的5个重要方向, 以及控制试验研究的2个关键科学问题, 对开展全球变化背景下草原生态系统对极端气候事件响应机制的研究具有指导意义。     

Impacts of extreme climatic events on competition during grassland invasions

Phytometers of five C3 and five C4 species were transplanted into three different grasslands to study the effects of extreme climatic events on community invasibility and competition. Single extreme heating (eight hours at 52.5 °C) and rainfall (the equivalent of 100 mm) events in factorial combinations were superimposed on the grassland communities. A novel technique involving portable computer‐controlled chambers was used to create the heating events. In order to generate predictions of response to the extreme climatic events, the 10 phytometer species were categorized on the basis of 12 key plant functional traits. Using principal component analysis, two functional types (FTs) were identified as most likely to be advantaged (FT1, fast‐growing C4 annuals) and disadvantaged (FT2, slower‐growing C3 perennials) by an extreme climatic event. Competition between the resident vegetation and FT1 plus other C4 phytometers was consistently more intense within the exclusively C3 community compared to the dry C3/C4 community or moist C3/C4 community. The single extreme heating event had the greatest impact on competition, lowering the intensity of competition between the phytometers and resident vegetation. Our results indicate that competition is highly important in limiting the invasion of C3 grasslands by C4 species. The FT1 and FT2 responses confirmed predictions based on plant functional traits, whether growing as phytometers or as part of the resident vegetation. Future increases in climatic variability and the incidence of extreme climatic events are expected to suppress C3 competitive dominance and promote invasion of C4 species, in particular, the FT1 species.     

Interactive effects of elevation,species richness and extreme climatic events on plant–pollinator networks

Plant–pollinator interactions are essential for the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, but are increasingly affected by global change. The risks to such mutualistic interactions from increasing temperature and more frequent extreme climatic events such as drought or advanced snow melt are assumed to depend on network specialization, species richness, local climate and associated parameters such as the amplitude of extreme events. Even though elevational gradients provide valuable model systems for climate change and are accompanied by changes in species richness, responses of plant–pollinator networks to climatic extreme events under different environmental and biotic conditions are currently unknown. Here, we show that elevational climatic gradients, species richness and experimentally simulated extreme events interactively change the structure of mutualistic networks in alpine grasslands. We found that the degree of specialization in plant–pollinator networks (H2′) decreased with elevation. Nonetheless, network specialization increased after advanced snow melt at high elevations, whereas changes in network specialization after drought were most pronounced at sites with low species richness. Thus, changes in network specialization after extreme climatic events depended on climatic context and were buffered by high species richness. In our experiment, only generalized plant–pollinator networks changed in their degree of specialization after climatic extreme events. This indicates that contrary to our assumptions, network generalization may not always foster stability of mutualistic interaction networks.     

Combined Effects of Extreme Climatic Events and Elevation on Nutritional Quality and Herbivory of Alpine Plants

Climatic extreme events can cause the shift or disruption of plant-insect interactions due to altered plant quality, e.g. leaf carbon to nitrogen ratios, and phenology. However, the response of plant-herbivore interactions to extreme events and climatic gradients has been rarely studied, although climatic extremes will increase in frequency and intensity in the future and insect herbivores represent a highly diverse and functionally important group. We set up a replicated climate change experiment along elevational gradients in the German Alps to study the responses of three plant guilds and their herbivory by insects to extreme events (extreme drought, advanced and delayed snowmelt) versus control plots under different climatic conditions on 15 grassland sites. Our results indicate that elevational shifts in CN (carbon to nitrogen) ratios and herbivory depend on plant guild and season. CN ratios increased with altitude for grasses, but decreased for legumes and other forbs. In contrast to our hypotheses, extreme climatic events did not significantly affect CN ratios and herbivory. Thus, our study indicates that nutritional quality of plants and antagonistic interactions with insect herbivores are robust against seasonal climatic extremes. Across the three functional plant guilds, herbivory increased with nitrogen concentrations. Further, increased CN ratios indicate a reduction in nutritional plant quality with advancing season. Although our results revealed no direct effects of extreme climatic events, the opposing responses of plant guilds along elevation imply that competitive interactions within plant communities might change under future climates, with unknown consequences for plant-herbivore interactions and plant community composition.     

Vapor–pressure deficit and extreme climatic variables limit tree growth

Assessing the effect of global warming on forest growth requires a better understanding of species‐specific responses to climate change conditions. Norway spruce and European beech are among the dominant tree species in Europe and are largely used by the timber industry. Their sensitivity to changes in climate and extreme climatic events, however, endangers their future sustainability. Identifying the key climatic factors limiting their growth and survival is therefore crucial for assessing the responses of these two species to ongoing climate change. We studied the vulnerability of beech and spruce to warmer and drier conditions by transplanting saplings from the top to the bottom of an elevational gradient in the Jura Mountains in Switzerland. We (1) demonstrated that a longer growing season due to warming could not fully account for the positive growth responses, and the positive effect on sapling productivity was species‐dependent, (2) demonstrated that the contrasting growth responses of beech and spruce were mainly due to different sensitivities to elevated vapor–pressure deficits (VPD), (3) determined the species‐specific limits to VPD above which growth rate began to decline, and (4) demonstrated that models incorporating extreme climatic events could account for the response of growth to warming better than models using only average values. These results support that the sustainability of forest trees in the coming decades will depend on how extreme climatic events will change, irrespective of the overall warming trend.     

Climatic impacts on winter wheat in Oklahoma and potential applications to climatic and crop yield prediction

Climatic anomalies can pose severe challenges for farmers and resource managers. This is particularly significant with respect to gradually developing anomalies such as droughts. The impact of the 1995-1996 drought on the Oklahoma wheat crop, and the possibility that predictive information might have reduced some of the losses, is examined through a combined modeling approach using climatological data and a crop growth model that takes into account an extensive range of soil, climatic, and plant variables. The results show potential outcomes and also illustrate the point at which all possible climatic outcomes were predicting a significantly low wheat yield. Based on anecdotal evidence of the 1995-1996 drought, which suggested that farmers who planted at different times experienced different yields, the model was run assuming a variety of different planting dates. Results indicate that there is indeed a noticeable difference in the modeled wheat yields given different planting dates. The information regarding effectiveness of planting date can be used in conjunction with current long-range forecasts to develop improved predictions for the current growing season. This approach produces information regarding the likelihood of extreme precipitation events and the impact on crop yield, which can provide a powerful tool to farmers and others during periods of drought or other climatic extremes.     

Historical and event‐based bioclimatic suitability predicts regional forest vulnerability to compound effects of severe drought and bark beetle infestation

Vulnerability to climate change, and particularly to climate extreme events, is expected to vary across species ranges. Thus, we need tools to standardize the variability in regional climatic legacy and extreme climate across populations and species. Extreme climate events (e.g., droughts) can erode populations close to the limits of species' climatic tolerance. Populations in climatic‐core locations may also become vulnerable because they have developed a greater demand for resources (i.e., water) that cannot be enough satisfied during the periods of scarcity. These mechanisms can become exacerbated in tree populations when combined with antagonistic biotic interactions, such as insect infestation. We used climatic suitability indices derived from Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to standardize the climatic conditions experienced across Pinus edulis populations in southwestern North America, during a historical period (1972–2000) and during an extreme event (2001–2007), when the compound effect of hot drought and bark beetle infestation caused widespread die‐off and mortality. Pinus edulis climatic suitability diminished dramatically during the die‐off period, with remarkable variation between years. P. edulis die‐off occurred mainly not just in sites that experienced lower climatic suitability during the drought but also where climatic suitability was higher during the historical period. The combined effect of historically high climatic suitability and a marked decrease in the climatic suitability during the drought best explained the range‐wide mortality. Lagged effects of climatic suitability loss in previous years and co‐occurrence of Juniperus monosperma also explained P. edulis die‐off in particular years. Overall, the study shows that past climatic legacy, likely determining acclimation, together with competitive interactions plays a major role in responses to extreme drought. It also provides a new approach to standardize the magnitude of climatic variability across populations using SDMs, improving our capacity to predict population's or species' vulnerability to climatic change.     

Date of breeding of the starling Sturnus vulgaris in New Zealand is related to El Niño Southern Oscillation

Abstract: Weather and climatic conditions may impact on the timing of breeding in birds. We examined changes in the laying date of the starling Sturnus vulgaris at Lower Hutt, New Zealand in the period 1970–2003 and investigated possible relationships with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Laying dates (expressed both as first and modal dates for the local population) were significantly delayed over the study period, i.e. starlings tended to lay later. The timing of breeding was non‐linearly related to ENSO, with early laying associated with both low and high values of ENSO. We suggest that changes in laying dates varied with food availability, which fluctuated according to climatic events.     

Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population

Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event (“locked pastures”) with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) “event” process. The introduction of an “event” parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.     

Trends in extreme climatic indices across the temperate steppes of China from 1961 to 2013

Aims Extreme climate events have become more severe and frequent with global change in recent years. The Chinese temperate steppes are an important component of the Eurasian steppes and highly sensitive and vulnerable to climatic change. As a result, the occurrence of extreme climate events must have strong impacts on the temperate steppes. Therefore, understanding the spatio-temporal trends in extreme climate is important for us to assess the sensitivity and vulnerability of Chinese temperate steppes to climatic changes. This research had two specific objects to (i) specify the temporal changes in extreme climate events across the whole steppe and (ii) compare the trend differences for extreme climate events in different types of steppes—meadow steppe, typical steppe and desert steppe.     

Sensitivity of three grassland communities to simulated extreme temperature and rainfall events

Three grassland communities in New Zealand with differing climates and proportions of C3 and C4 species were subjected to one‐off extreme heating (eight hours at 52.5°C) and rainfall (the equivalent of 100 mm) events. A novel experimental technique using portable computer‐controlled chambers simulated the extreme heating events. The productive, moist C3/C4 community was the most sensitive to the extreme events in terms of short‐term community composition compared with a dry C3/C4 community or an exclusively C3 community. An extreme heating event caused the greatest change to plant community species abundance by favouring the expansion of C4 species relative to C3 species, shifting C4 species abundance from 43% up to 84% at the productive, moist site. This was observed both in the presence and absence of added water. In the absence of C4 species, heating reduced community productivity by over 60%. The short‐term shifts in the abundance of C3 and C4 species in response to the single extreme climatic events did not have persistent effects on community structure or on soil nitrogen one year later. There was no consistent relationship between diversity and stability of biomass production of these plant communities, and species functional identity was the most effective explanation for the observed shifts in biomass production. The presence of C4 species resulted in an increased stability of productivity after extreme climatic events, but resulted in greater overall shifts in community composition. The presence of C4 species may buffer grassland community productivity against an increased frequency of extreme heating events associated with future global climate change.     

Invader presence disrupts the stabilizing effect of species richness in plant community recovery after drought

Higher biodiversity can stabilize the productivity and functioning of grassland communities when subjected to extreme climatic events. The positive biodiversity–stability relationship emerges via increased resistance and/or recovery to these events. However, invader presence might disrupt this diversity–stability relationship by altering biotic interactions. Investigating such disruptions is important given that invasion by non‐native species and extreme climatic events are expected to increase in the future due to anthropogenic pressure. Here we present one of the first multisite invader × biodiversity × drought manipulation experiment to examine combined effects of biodiversity and invasion on drought resistance and recovery at three semi‐natural grassland sites across Europe. The stability of biomass production to an extreme drought manipulation (100% rainfall reduction; BE: 88 days, BG: 85 days, DE: 76 days) was quantified in field mesocosms with a richness gradient of 1, 3, and 6 species and three invasion treatments (no invader, Lupinus polyphyllus, Senecio inaequidens). Our results suggest that biodiversity stabilized community productivity by increasing the ability of native species to recover from extreme drought events. However, invader presence turned the positive and stabilizing effects of diversity on native species recovery into a neutral relationship. This effect was independent of the two invader's own capacity to recover from an extreme drought event. In summary, we found that invader presence may disrupt how native community interactions lead to stability of ecosystems in response to extreme climatic events. Consequently, the interaction of three global change drivers, climate extremes, diversity decline, and invasive species, may exacerbate their effects on ecosystem functioning.     

Non‐additive effects of simulated heat waves and predators on prey phenotype and transgenerational phenotypic plasticity

Understanding the effects of extreme climatic events on species and their interactions is of paramount importance for predicting and mitigating the impacts of climate change on communities and ecosystems. However, the joint effects of extreme climatic events and species interactions on the behaviour and phenotype of organisms remain poorly understood, leaving a substantial gap in our knowledge on the impacts of climatic change on ecological communities. Using an aphid–ladybeetle system, we experimentally investigated the effects of predators and heat shocks on prey body size, microhabitat use, and transgenerational phenotypic plasticity (i.e., the asexual production of winged offspring by unwinged mothers). We found that (i) aphids were smaller in the presence of predators but larger when exposed to frequent heat shocks; (ii) frequent heat shocks shifted aphid distribution towards the plant's apex, but the presence of predators had the opposite effect and dampened the heat‐shock effects; and (iii) aphids responded to predators by producing winged offspring, but heat shocks strongly inhibited this transgenerational response to predation. Overall, our experimental results show that heat shocks inhibit phenotypic and behavioural responses to predation (and vice versa) and that such changes may alter trophic interactions, and have important consequences on the dynamics and stability of ecological communities. We conclude that the effects of extreme climatic events on the phenotype and behaviour of interacting species should be considered to understand the effects of climate change on species interactions and communities.     

甘肃省徐家城旧石器遗址的年代

庄浪县徐家城遗址是甘肃省新发现的含丰富旧石器文化遗物的遗址,主要埋藏于水洛河第二级阶地上覆的马兰黄土中。AMS14C测年及气候事件对比相结合的综合年代研究显示, 遗址主要文化层时代集中在距今4.6~2.3万年间, 属于晚更新世晚期。遗址所在的陇西盆地发现近50处晚更新世旧石器遗址, 测年、黄土地层学等的综合年代学研究利于建立该地区晚更新世完整的年代学框架, 为我们进一步讨论晚更新世人类行为演化、人类行为与环境变化的互动等重要学术问题提供了基础。     

Effects of simulated heat waves on an experimental plant–herbivore–predator food chain

Greater climatic variability and extreme climatic events are currently emerging as two of the most important facets of climate change. Predicting the effects of extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, is a major challenge because they may affect both organisms and trophic interactions, leading to complex responses at the community level. In this study, we set up a simple three‐level food chain composed of a sweet pepper plant, Capsicum annuum; an aphid, Myzus persicae; and a ladybeetle, Coleomegilla maculata, to explore the consequences of simulated heat waves on organism performance, trophic interactions, and population dynamics. We found that (1) heat waves do not affect plant biomass, significantly reduce the abundance and fecundity of aphids, and slightly affect ladybeetle developmental time and biomass, (2) heat waves decrease the impact of ladybeetles on aphid populations but do not modify the effect of aphids on plant biomass, and (3) food chains including predatory ladybeetles are more resistant to heat waves than a simple plant–aphid association, with aphid abundance being less influenced by heat waves in the presence of C. maculata. Our results suggest that more biodiverse ecosystems with predators exerting a strong biotic control are likely to be less influenced by abiotic factors and then more resistant to extreme climatic events than impoverished ecosystems lacking predators. Our study emphasizes the importance of assessing the effects of climatic change on each trophic level as well as on trophic interactions to further our understanding of the stability, resilience, and resistance of ecological communities under climatic forcing.     

Comprehensive methodological analysis of long‐term changes in phenological extremes in Germany

This study reports on alterations in the magnitude and frequency of extremes in reproductive phenology using long‐term records (1951–2008) for plant species widely distributed across Germany. For each of fourteen indicator phases studied, time series of annual onset dates at up to 119 stations, providing 50–58 years of observation, were standardized by their station mean and standard deviation. Four alternative statistical models were applied and compared to derive probabilities of extreme early or late onset times for the phases: (1) Gaussian models were used to describe decadal probabilities of standardized anomalies, defined by data either falling below the 5th or exceeding the 95th percentile. (2) Semi‐parametric quantile regression was employed for flexible and robust modelling of trends in different quantiles of onset dates. (3) Generalized extreme value distributions (GEV) were fitted to annual detrended minima and maxima of standardized anomalies, and (4) Generalized Pareto distributions (GPD) were fitted to extremes defined as peaks over threshold. Probabilities of extreme early phenological events inferred from Gaussian models, increased on average from 3 to 12%, whereas probabilities of extreme late phenological events decreased from 6 to 2% over the study period. Based on quantile regressions, summer and autumn phases revealed a more pronounced advancing pattern than spring phases. Estimated return levels by GEV were similar for the GPD methods, indicating that extreme early phenological events of magnitudes 2.5, 2.8, and 3.6 on the detrended standardized anomaly scale would occur every 20 years for spring, summer and autumn phases, respectively. This corresponds to absolute onset advances of up to 2 months depending on the season and species. This study demonstrates how extreme phenological events can be accurately modelled even in cases of inherently small numbers of observations, and underlines the need for additional evaluation related to their impacts on ecosystem functioning.     

Does climate at different scales influence the phenology and phenotype of the River Warbler <Emphasis Type="Italic">Locustella fluviatilis</Emphasis>?

Weather and climatic conditions may impact on the phenology and morphology of birds, and thereby affect their survival rate and population dynamics. We examined the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), precipitation in the Sahel zone, temperatures in the wintering grounds, on the migration route, and in the breeding area in relation to arrival dates and six morphological measures (wing, tarsus, bill, and tail lengths, body mass, body condition) in a Slovak population of the River Warbler Locustella fluviatilis. Arrival dates did not change significantly over the study period, but were significantly positively correlated with NAO, although not with temperatures in wintering areas, migration route or breeding area, nor with Sahel precipitation. Four of the six morphological traits changed during the study period and part of the change in condition index can be attributed to climatic variables. We suggest changes in birds phenotype vary with food availability, which fluctuate according to climate events.     

Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places

Background and Aims Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin (‘rear edge’) of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species’ European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs).Methods A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits.Key Results The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen.Conclusions The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern ‘rear edge’, in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios.