Water-environmental risk assessment of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei collaborative development region in China

With the rapid development of social and economic conditions in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) collaborative development region in China, the water-environmental problems gradually evolve into a regional problem. As an important tool of predicting and preventing these problems, water-environmental risk assessment (WERA) plays an increasingly important role in environment management. This study mainly targets the surface water environment and takes the BTH region as a study area in developing a water-environmental risk assessment index system based on the Driving force-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses model. The weighting, risk, and zoning of each index are determined using multiple methods such as the Analytic Hierarchy Process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and geographic information system technology. Further discussions are made to analyze the leading factors of high-risk units, the relationship between the risk level and social economy, and the uncertainty of WERA. Generally speaking, results show that the relative high-risk areas mainly distribute in Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, and Tangshan, and the relative low-risk areas mainly distribute in Chengde and Zhangjiakou. The remaining parts of the region are at the middle-risk level. The results also show a positive correlation between the risk level and the social economy. This study gathered lots of data and carried out a number of calculation work, and is expected to improve the WERA methods and help managers set the priorities for local water-environmental management and make more effective decisions in the context of BTH collaborative development.     

中国旱灾风险定量评估

全球变暖及经济社会快速发展导致区域及全球性灾害风险增大，中国更是几乎每年都会遭受旱灾，因此，开展旱灾风险评估及影响因素研究对于区域经济社会可持续发展和灾害风险管理具有重要意义。以前的旱灾风险评估在评估方法以及评估指标选取方面都具有很强的主观性，导致风险评估结果具有强烈的不确定性，这在划定我国的高旱灾风险区域时可能会造成问题。基于旱灾风险的定义，合理假设"历史上旱灾损失高的地区遭受高旱灾损失的概率越大"，引入历史旱灾损失资料对旱灾风险进行校正，构建了新的旱灾风险评估模型，揭示了中国旱灾风险的区域分异规律，并量化了各个影响因子的贡献水平。分析结果表明，我国存在5个显著的旱灾高风险区：东北地区、华北地区、西北地区东部、西南地区东部以及西北地区西部的小部分区域。影响因子分析进一步表明，高暴露度和高脆弱性是导致地区出现高旱灾风险的主要原因。     

基于PSR模型的国家公园综合灾害风险评估指标体系构建

灾害会对社会-生态系统产生严重影响,造成重大的社会、经济、环境等方面的损失,科学地对灾害风险进行评估是进行防灾减灾的基础工作。自然保护地是区域灾害风险管理热点地区,在国家公园体制试点建设与自然保护地体系改革中,国家公园作为保护重要生态系统并保障全民公益性的重要的自然保护地类型之一,管理目标的多样性,决定了其具有多风险源-多受体的灾害风险特征,因此,进行全面有效的灾害风险评估是支持国家公园生态系统管理、游客管理、社区管理等具体管理目标的必要环节。在明确国家公园灾害风险的特征与内涵的基础上,以国际减灾署灾害风险定量评估框架为依据,细分灾害风险源和风险受体,然后针对国家公园不同类型的灾害风险受体,以灾害风险源的危险性与灾害风险受体的脆弱性(包含敏感性、暴露性和适应性)衡量灾害风险度,结合压力-状态-响应(Pressure-State-Response, PSR)模型,构建了适用于国家公园综合灾害风险管理的评估指标体系,旨在为国家公园的灾害风险管理提供理论基础和科学依据,服务于国家公园多元化管理目标。     

A Decision Support Framework for Sustainable Waste Management

This article describes a decision support framework for the evaluation of scenarios for the integrated management of municipal solid waste within a local government area (LGA).
The work is initially focused on local government (i.e., municipal councils) in the state of Queensland, Australia; however, it is broadly applicable to LGAs anywhere. The goal is to achieve sustainable waste management practices by balancing global and regional environmental impacts, social impacts at the local community level, and economic impacts. The framework integrates life-cycle assessment (LCA) with other environmental, social, and economic tools. For this study, social and economic impacts are assumed to be similar across developed countries of the world. LCA was streamlined at both the life-cycle inventory and life-cycle impact assessment stages.
For this process, spatial resolution is introduced into the LCA process to account for impacts occurring at the local and regional levels. This has been done by considering social impacts on the local community and by use of a regional procedure for LCA data for emissions to the environment that may have impacts at the regional level.
The integration follows the structured approach of the pressure-state-response (PSR) model suggested by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This PSR model has been extended to encompass nonenvironmental issues and to guide the process of applying multiple tools.
The framework primarily focuses on decision analysis and interpretation processes. Multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) is used to assist with the integration of qualitative and quantitative information. MAUT provides a well-structured approach to information assessment and facilitates objective, transparent decisions. A commercially available decision analysis software package based on MAUT has been used as the platform for the framework developed in this study.     

A GIS-Based Ecological Safety Assessment of Wushen Banner,China

Eco-environmental sensitivity assessment as a new research field on sustainable development is the foundation for establishing early warning systems for ecological safety and environmental management. Many scholars have started to study national and social safety from an ecological point of view. Wushen Banner, which is located in the transitional area between Ordos Plateau in Inner-Mongolia and Loess Plateau in the north of Shanxi Province, is in the center of the Mu Us Desert, an area with a fragile environment. From the perspective of regional ecological safety, the regional eco-environmental sensitivity assessment index system was established, including sensitivity to soil erosion, land desertification, bioinhabitation, and human settlements. Based on the grid module supported by the geographical information system (GIS), changing the spatial data into a 30 m × 30 m grid, through grid average weight calculation, the eco-environmental sensitivity assessment distribution map of Wushen Banner was compiled. The results show that an acute sensitivity area, located in the northwest area of Wushen Banner, represents about 29.1%. The main features of the physical environment are very poor. Soil salinization and grassland desertification are serious. This research could provide a scientific basis for exploring sustainable development of regional resources and environment as well as guiding local development construction and ecological risk management.     

美国、加拿大环境和健康风险管理方法

对目前美国和加拿大多个部门使用的风险评价与风险管理方法进行了全面回顾和综合分析,论述各种不同方法的特征,深入探讨各种管理方法的基础、利弊、使用经验,辨识环境、人类健康和职业健康风险综合方法中应该包含的要素,阐述风险管理目标的确定方法,以期为中国的环境风险管理提供经验。     

Development of Relative Risk Model for Regional Groundwater Risk Assessment: A Case Study in the Lower Liaohe River Plain,China

Increasing pressure on water supply worldwide, especially in arid areas, has resulted in groundwater overexploitation and contamination, and subsequent deterioration of the groundwater quality and threats to public health. Environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater is an important tool for groundwater protection. This study presents a new approach for assessing the environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater. It was carried out with a relative risk model (RRM) coupled with a series of indices, such as a groundwater vulnerability index, which includes receptor analysis, risk source analysis, risk exposure and hazard analysis, risk characterization, and management of groundwater. The risk map is a product of the probability of environmental contamination and impact. The reliability of the RRM was verified using Monte Carlo analysis. This approach was applied to the lower Liaohe River Plain (LLRP), northeastern China, which covers 23604 km². A spatial analysis tool within GIS which was used to interpolate and manipulate the data to develop environmental risk maps of regional groundwater, divided the level of risk from high to low into five ranks (V, IV, III, II, I). The results indicate that areas of relative risk rank (RRR) V cover 2324 km², covering 9.8% of the area; RRR IV covers 3986 km², accounting for 16.9% of the area. It is a new and appropriate method for regional groundwater resource management and land use planning, and is a rapid and effective tool for improving strategic decision making to protect groundwater and reduce environmental risk.     

基于GIS的山西省矿产资源规划环境影响评价

基于目前我国矿产资源规划编制过程中的环境评价,提出了一种基于GIS(Geographic Information System)技术,实现矿产资源规划环境影响定量评价方法。在对规划区环境现状进行大尺度综合评价的基础上,利用GIS的空间分析功能,有针对性的实现规划区敏感环境保护目标的筛选、环境影响范围的确定和矿产资源开发对环境保护目标影响程度的定量表达。结合山西省矿产资源规划方案,根据山西省各区域资源开发对敏感保护目标的影响特征,在定量计算各区域环境现状综合评价分级的基础上,分别对其生态环境、水环境、地质环境等方面的影响进行评价和预测,结果显示:山西省矿产资源规划空间布局总体合理,不会对敏感环境保护目标造成严重破坏,但部分矿产资源开采区距离保护目标较近,需要在矿产资源规划实施中加以保护。提出的评价方法较好地兼顾矿产资源开发与区域环境保护,可以有效地提高矿产资源规划环境评价结果的准确性和科学性;该方法可以综合地、定量地评价矿产资源规划对不同环境保护目标的影响程度和范围,为矿产资源规划方案的修订提供有价值的参考。     

中国外来植物入侵风险评估研究

对外来植物开展入侵风险评估是防止外来植物入侵最经济有效的措施,能够极大的节约外来种管理的经济和时间成本。研究简述了国内外入侵风险评估系统,从外来物种基础信息缺乏、外来植物的适生区分析不完善、风险评估体系构建不客观、对新近外来种的关注度不够4个方面阐述了我国外来植物风险评估存在的主要问题。并针对存在的问题提出了以下建议：（1）构建外来植物基础信息数据库是风险评估的基础,加强外来植物本底资料的调查与考证,并将外来植物表型数据的积累和分析纳入数据库,使得风险评估有据可依。（2）运用生态位模型进行生态风险分析是风险评估的重点,并将人类活动指标纳入预测模型,揭示人类活动对入侵植物分布格局的影响。（3）建立科学的风险评估系统是核心,包括通过选择风险指标和设置权重来提高评估系统的科学性、构建特定区域或特定生态类型的风险评估体系、根据评估对象的生物学与生态学特征建立符合实际要求的评估标准,实行差别化的风险评估等。（4）加强新近外来植物的管理是关键,应定期野外监测新近外来种的种群动态,定期审查风险评估结果,对高风险的新近外来种进行预警研究将为中国外来植物风险评估体系构建提供重要参考,为入侵植物防控措施的制定提供理论依据。     

Assessing regional sustainable development through an integration of nonlinear principal component analysis and Gram Schmidt orthogonalization

The regional sustainable development level (SDL), sustainability of regional development (SRD) and system coordination (SC) make up the triangular truss of regional sustainable development assessment, but it is debated how should traditional practice best weight and calculate the whole sustainable development system level. The Bohai Rim, covering three provinces and two municipalities in China, lies in a region that is sensitive to profound conflict between socioeconomic development and environment pollution in the process of sustainable development. Considering the defects of traditional models and the multidimensionality of regional sustainability issues, we proposed an integrated model of nonlinear principal component analysis and Gram Schmidt orthogonalization and presented a novel regional sustainable development assessment method and framework from three perspectives for the society–economy–environment system of the Bohai Rim region. The results show that: (a) the integration of nonlinear principal component analysis and Gram Schmidt orthogonalization can well remedy the defects of traditional methods and provide a more objective conceptual framework; (b) the sustainability of regional development and system coordination models graphically demonstrate the essence and connotation of a dynamic sustainable development system; (c) the empirical study demonstrated that the Bohai Rim region has experienced a distinct development period in which the SRD experienced a steady decline and the SDL and SC generally increased; (d) the coordination ability can be improved by a decline in the environmental sustainability, which reveals the importance of environment subsystem optimization; and (e) the weight distribution of variables demonstrates that the most significant factors affecting sustainable development are the indicators from the dimensions of people's standard of living, economic structure and environmental pollution. This study enriches the sustainable development assessment theory and methodology, and lays the foundation for further sustainable development research in the Bohai Rim region.     

太湖流域生态风险评价

随着城镇的急剧扩张和经济的快速增长,流域生态环境遭到极大冲击和破坏,致使生态系统出现资源退化、环境恶化与灾害风险加剧的趋势,生态环境面临前所未有的挑战.从复合生态系统入手,深入分析流域内各生态系统要素之间的相互作用与影响机制,综合考虑多风险源、多风险受体和生态终点共存情况下的风险大小,从风险源危险度、生境脆弱度及受体损失度三方面构建了流域生态风险评价技术体系,并选取太湖流域为实证区域,对太湖流域2000年、2008年两个时期生态风险的时空演化特征进行评价与分析.结果表明:太湖流域生态风险指数介于0.015-0.253之间,以中等和较低生态风险为主.至2008年,高、较高生态风险所占面积逐渐扩大,已由2000年的5.66％、13.42％增加至6.05％、18.42％,主要集中在流域北部的常州市区、江阴市大部分地区以及无锡市区.     

A GIS-based LVF model for semiquantitative assessment of groundwater pollution risk: A case study in Shenyang,NE China

Groundwater pollution risk assessment is a useful tool to prevent and control groundwater pollution, but its quantitative research is still relatively immature. In this study, a geographic information system based LVF model for a semiquantitative assessment of groundwater pollution risk is established, based on the groundwater pollution source load (L), groundwater vulnerability (V), and groundwater function value (F). Further, the pollution source load is characterized by seven specific pollution sources, the vulnerability is calculated by the modified DRASTIC method, and the groundwater function value is evaluated with the water quality and quantity. The model was used to assess the risk of shallow groundwater pollution in Shenyang city, Northeast China, with an area of 8,263 km². The results show that highest risk areas account for 16.3% of the study area and are mainly distributed in the east of the study area. High risk areas are significantly affected by a shallow buried depth of groundwater and many types of harmful pollutants from industrial, agricultural, and domestic pollution sources. The evaluation results reflect the risk of groundwater pollution in the Shenyang area, which is relevant to the management and sustainable use of groundwater resources in the area.     

A genetic and spatial Bayesian analysis of mastitis resistance

A nationwide health card recording system for dairy cattle was introduced in Norway in 1975 (the Norwegian Cattle Health Services). The data base holds information on mastitis occurrences on an individual cow basis. A reduction in mastitis frequency across the population is desired, and for this purpose risk factors are investigated. In this paper a Bayesian proportional hazards model is used for modelling the time to first veterinary treatment of clinical mastitis, including both genetic and environmental covariates. Sire effects were modelled as shared random components, and veterinary district was included as an environmental effect with prior spatial smoothing. A non-informative smoothing prior was assumed for the baseline hazard, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC) were used for inference. We propose a new measure of quality for sires, in terms of their posterior probability of being among the, say 10% best sires. The probability is an easily interpretable measure that can be directly used to rank sires. Estimating these complex probabilities is straightforward in an MCMC setting. The results indicate considerable differences between sires with regards to their daughters disease resistance. A regional effect was also discovered with the lowest risk of disease in the south-eastern parts of Norway.     

县域生态环境脆弱性评价及其动态分析——以黄河三角洲垦利县为例

县域是中国同时具备地域、空间和行政独立性的最基本区域单元,科学评价该尺度生态环境脆弱性状况及变化具有积极的理论和现实意义.以典型生态环境脆弱区黄河三角洲垦利县为例,在对生态环境脆弱性主要属性重新界定基础上,分别从稳定性、敏感性和区域适应性3个方面选取评价指标构建指标体系,建立了评价模型,并对该县1986～2003年的生态环境脆弱性发展变化进行了动态分析.研究结果显示:垦利县生态环境不稳定;1986～2003年期间,垦利县生态环境敏感性总体呈下降趋势,区域适应性总体呈上升趋势.偏相关分析方法对垦利县生态环境自然因子的敏感性排序结果为地下水埋深>蒸降比>地下水矿化度>气温,确定地下水埋深、蒸降比和地下水矿化度为该区生态环境自然敏感因子.垦利县区域适应性的 "障碍度"计算结果表明:盐碱地治理比例始终是第一障碍因素;农田防护林密度的限制集中出现在1995～1998年之间;化肥农药增长率自2000年以后成为主要障碍因素;有效灌溉面积比率和排涝体系面积比例的限制在1990年之前出现.研究结论认为,垦利县生态环境脆弱度呈现降低趋势,但仍处于脆弱状态,需重点关注敏感因素和障碍因素的发展变化.研究表明,该评价方法可体现出县域生态环境脆弱性的根本原因及其发展变化过程,是对目前国内生态环境脆弱性研究领域的有益补充.     

Helias A. Udo De Haes: A Practical Scientist

Goal, Scope and Background The importance of the social dimension of sustainable development increased significantly during the last decade of the twentieth century. Industry has subsequently experienced a shift in stakeholder pressures from environmental to social-related concerns, where new developments in the form of projects and technologies are undertaken. However, the measurement of social impacts and the calculation of suitable indicators are less well developed compared to environmental indicators in order to assess the potential liabilities associated with undertaken projects and technologies. The aim of this paper is to propose a Social Impact Indicator (SII) calculation procedure based on a previously introduced Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) calculation procedure for environmental Resource Impact Indicators (RIIs), and to demonstrate the practicability of the SII procedure in the context of the process industry in South Africa. Methods A framework of social sustainability criteria has been introduced for the South African process industry. The social sub-criteria of the framework are further analyzed, based on project and technology management expertise in the South African process industry, to determine whether the criteria should be addressed at project or technology management level or whether they should rather form part of an overall corporate governance policy for new projects and technologies. Furthermore, the proposed indicators for criteria that are considered appropriate for project or technology evaluation purposes are constrained by the type of information that is available, i.e. the calculation methodology relies on the availability of regional or national social information where the project will be implemented, as well as the availability of project- or technology-specific social information during the various phases of the project or technology development life cycle. Case studies in the process industry and statistical information for South Africa are subsequently used to establish information availability for the SII calculation procedure, demonstrate the SII method together with the RII method, and determine the practical use of the SII method. Results and Conclusion The case studies establish that social footprint information as well as project- and technology social data are not readily available in the South African process industry. Consequently, the number of mid-point categories that can be evaluated are minimal, which results in an impaired social picture when compared to the environmental dimension. It is concluded that a quantitative social impact assessment method cannot be applied for project and technology life cycle management purposes in industry at present. Recommendation and Perspective Following the outcomes of the case studies in the South African process industry, it is recommended that checklists and guidelines be used during project and technology life cycle management practices. Similar to the environmental dimension, it is envisaged that such checklists and guidelines would improve the availability of quantitative data in time, and would therefore make the SII procedure more practical in the future.     

广东省生态安全状态及趋势定量评价

为研究区域生态安全在不同时期的动态变化及发展趋势,在国内外已有的研究基础上,根据压力-状态-响应模型框架,提出了一套完整的区域生态安全水平度量的指标体系和基于熵权法赋权的综合指数评价方法,从时间尺度上（1990～2004年）对广东省生态安全进行定量评估和动态趋势分析.结果表明,广东省生态安全综合指数从1990年的0.125增加至2004年的0.402,生态安全整体水平呈逐年上升趋势,但发展过程中存在的问题是区域生态压力在不断加大及生态安全现状水平仍处于“较不安全”状态.对广东省环境规划的实施效果进行预测评估,得出在实现环境目标的情景下,2010规划年和2020规划年的生态安全综合指数将分别达到0.533（临界安全）和0.691（较安全）.评价方法简单直观,评价结果客观合理.     

Modeling and dynamic assessment of urban economy–resource–environment system with a coupled system dynamics – geographic information system model

At present, environmental issues associated with rapid economic development are becoming critical concerns that arouse government's and people's particular attention. A large amount of influencing factors and especially their complicated interactions have always thrown confused insights into assessing the dynamic evolvement and sustainable development of urban economy–resource–environment (ERE) system and programming the developing strategies. A combination of system dynamics (SD) and geographic information system (GIS) is expected to explicitly understand the synergic interaction and feedback among a variety of influencing factors in time and space, since SD model can extend the spatial analysis functions of GIS to realize both dynamic simulation and trend prediction of an ERE system development. According to connotation and framework of sustainable development, this study proposes a dynamic combination method of SD–GIS to model and evaluate the urban development in Chongqing city of China suffering from depletion of resource and degradation of environment. To compare different policy inclinations with regard to potential ERE effects, typical scenarios (current, resource, technology and environment scenarios) are designed by adjusting the parameters in the model and changing the specification of some variables. Integrated assessment results indicate that the current ERE system of Chongqing is not sustainable; environment scenario is more effective to sustainable development of urban ERE system in a long run. Under the considerations of development features and regional differences, as well as regular discipline on urbanization, a coordinated combination of environmental, resource and technology scenarios is anticipated to realize sustainable development of urban ERE system.     

基于禽流感发生风险的生态安全评价研究进展

禽流感是危害公共健康、社会经济和政治稳定重要的传染性疾病。近年来,禽流感引发的区域生态安全(公共卫生安全和生物安全)问题日益受到学界关注。为此,有必要从禽流感发生风险的角度来开展区域生态安全评价。根据1996—2017年发表的禽流感发生风险与生态安全评价英文文献,运用Citespace软件综合分析了禽流感与生态安全评价的最新研究进展。在阐述禽流感发生风险与生态安全评价关系基础上,结合生态安全评价理论框架,从数据来源、适用范围、优缺点等方面分别对禽流感发生风险评估方法以及基于禽流感发生风险的生态安全评价方法进行对比与总结。综述表明:禽流感发生风险对生物物种安全和公共卫生安全的威胁已经严重影响到区域生态安全,其引发的公共卫生危机和生物多样性减少是生态安全评价研究的重要内容,从禽流感发生风险视角评价区域生态安全具有其必要性和紧迫性,并迫切需要加强相关模型方法及其应用研究。目前,禽流感研究主要以病毒学、流行病学为主,与生态安全领域结合研究较为缺乏,在生态安全评价中有关禽流感发生风险内容的研究基本被忽视。既可为深入揭示禽流感发生与传播的动力学机制与防控和监测禽流感提供科学依据,亦可为未来开展基于禽流感发生风险的区域生态安全评价研究提供方法借鉴。     

黄土高原区主导生态风险识别及分异性研究——以黄河流域中游为例

黄河流域作为典型的生态脆弱区,其生态问题复杂多样,亟待全面的生态治理和修复。同时,黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展是当前我国发展战略之一。明确黄河流域存在的生态问题,做好区域生态修复,开展综合治理是黄河流域可持续发展的重点。因此把握黄河流域的自然条件的区域差异,开展综合性的生态风险识别与评价,明确区域风险空间异质性分布与特点,是服务于区域生态修复、促进黄河流域高质量发展的重点。结合黄河流域中游气候、地形、植被等多自然本底情况识别风险源,建立服务于研究区生态保护和修复的区域生态风险评价体系,并通过GEE和GIS平台,可视化和量化了各类生态风险,并采用空间相关分析明确了生态风险的主要成因。结果表明：1）研究区的生态风险空间分布具有显著的区域特征,各个要素的生态风险呈现明显的东南和西北的差异、不同土地覆被情况的差异、人类活动带与非人类活动带的差异以及河流沿河与非沿岸的差异;2）植被净生态系统生产力呈现东南高西北低的特征,温度植被干旱指数显示西北部、山西、陕西南部存在较高的干旱风险,土壤侵蚀风险主要存在于黄河沿岸、其他河谷地带以及西北部,防风固沙服务能力在山西省山区以及植被生长较好的地区较高;3）综合生态风险评价显示宁夏以及陕西北部多数地区属于高风险区,低风险区主要分布在研究区西南部以及山西省西部沿线地区;4）双变量的Moran''s I指数显示地表温度、植被覆盖和汛期降水是导致综合生态风险西北和东南差异的主要原因,坡度是导致局部风险差异的主要原因。     

A DPSIR Model for Ecological Security Assessment through Indicator Screening: A Case Study at Dianchi Lake in China

Given the important role of lake ecosystems in social and economic development, and the current severe environmental degradation in China, a systematic diagnosis of the ecological security of lakes is essential for sustainable development. A Driving-force, Pressure, Status, Impact, and Risk (DPSIR) model, combined with data screening for lake ecological security assessment was developed to overcome the disadvantages of data selection in existing assessment methods. Correlation and principal component analysis were used to select independent and representative data. The DPSIR model was then applied to evaluate the ecological security of Dianchi Lake in China during 1988-2007 using an ecological security index. The results revealed a V-shaped trend. The application of the DPSIR model with data screening provided useful information regarding the status of the lake’s ecosystem, while ensuring information efficiency and eliminating multicollinearity. The modeling approach described here is practical and operationally efficient, and provides an attractive alternative approach to assess the ecological security of lakes.