中国外来植物入侵风险评估研究

对外来植物开展入侵风险评估是防止外来植物入侵最经济有效的措施，能够极大的节约外来种管理的经济和时间成本。研究简述了国内外入侵风险评估系统，从外来物种基础信息缺乏、外来植物的适生区分析不完善、风险评估体系构建不客观、对新近外来种的关注度不够4个方面阐述了我国外来植物风险评估存在的主要问题。并针对存在的问题提出了以下建议：（1）构建外来植物基础信息数据库是风险评估的基础，加强外来植物本底资料的调查与考证，并将外来植物表型数据的积累和分析纳入数据库，使得风险评估有据可依。（2）运用生态位模型进行生态风险分析是风险评估的重点，并将人类活动指标纳入预测模型，揭示人类活动对入侵植物分布格局的影响。（3）建立科学的风险评估系统是核心，包括通过选择风险指标和设置权重来提高评估系统的科学性、构建特定区域或特定生态类型的风险评估体系、根据评估对象的生物学与生态学特征建立符合实际要求的评估标准，实行差别化的风险评估等。（4）加强新近外来植物的管理是关键，应定期野外监测新近外来种的种群动态，定期审查风险评估结果，对高风险的新近外来种进行预警研究将为中国外来植物风险评估体系构建提供重要参考，为入侵植物防控措施的制定提供理论依据。

Current status and suggestions of research on invasive risk assessment of alien plants in China

Risk assessment of alien plants is the most economical and effective measure to prevent the invasion of alien species, and it can greatly save the economic and time cost of alien species management. In this paper, the risk assessment system of alien plants in China and abroad is briefly introduced. The existing problems in the risk assessment of alien plants in China are expounded on the lacking of the basic information of alien plants, incomplete suitable area analysis, unobjective construction process of risk assessment system, and insufficient attention to risk analysis of newly alien plants. The following suggestions are given for the existing problems. (1) Establishment of the basic information database of alien plants is the basis of risk assessment. In order to provide evidence for risk assessment, the investigation and textual research of background data of alien plants should be strengthened, and the accumulation and analysis of phenotypic data of alien plants should be added into the database, which helps to improve the management of alien species. (2) The application of ecological niche model to ecological risk analysis is the important part of risk assessment, and human activity indicators should be considered in the niche model to reveal its impact on the distribution pattern of invasive plants. The transfer ability of the model should be fully considered when selecting geographical distribution data and environmental variables for model construction. The accuracy and reliability of the model are evaluated and the optimal model is selected according to the assessment result. (3) The scientificity is the core of risk assessment system. The measures to improve the scientificity of risk assessment system include selecting the risk index and setting weight, establishment of the risk assessment system for particular area or specific ecological types, establishment of evaluation standards in line with the actual requirements according to the biological and ecological characteristics. (4) Strengthening the management of newly alien plants is the key part. The population dynamics of newly alien species should be monitored regularly. At the same time, the results of risk assessment should be reviewed regularly, and the high-risk newly alien species should be warned. The early stage is the best time to manage alien species. Risk assessment and early warning of alien species that have not caused significant harm can reduce the cost of prevention and control.This study will provide an important reference for the establishment of risk assessment system for alien plants in China and provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of invasive plant prevention and control measures.