Evolutionarily distinct amphibians are disproportionately lost from human‐modified ecosystems

Humans continue to alter terrestrial ecosystems, but our understanding of how biodiversity responds is still limited. Anthropogenic habitat conversion has been associated with the loss of evolutionarily distinct bird species at local scales, but whether this evolutionary pattern holds across other clades is unknown. We collate a global dataset on amphibian assemblages in intact forests and nearby human‐modified sites to assess whether evolutionary history influences susceptibility to land conversion. We found that evolutionarily distinct amphibian species are disproportionately lost when forested habitats are converted to alternative land‐uses. We tested the hypothesis that grassland‐associated amphibian lineages have both higher diversification and are pre‐adapted to human landscapes, but found only weak evidence supporting this. The loss of evolutionarily distinct amphibians with land conversion suggests that preserving remnant forests will be vital if we aim to preserve the amphibian tree of life in the face of mounting anthropogenic pressures.     

Habitat fragmentation is associated with dietary shifts and microbiota variability in common vampire bats

Host ecological factors and external environmental factors are known to influence the structure of gut microbial communities, but few studies have examined the impacts of environmental changes on microbiotas in free‐ranging animals. Rapid land‐use change has the potential to shift gut microbial communities in wildlife through exposure to novel bacteria and/or by changing the availability or quality of local food resources. The consequences of such changes to host health and fitness remain unknown and may have important implications for pathogen spillover between humans and wildlife. To better understand the consequences of land‐use change on wildlife microbiotas, we analyzed long‐term dietary trends, gut microbiota composition, and innate immune function in common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) in two nearby sites in Belize that vary in landscape structure. We found that vampire bats living in a small forest fragment had more homogenous diets indicative of feeding on livestock and shifts in microbiota heterogeneity, but not overall composition, compared to those living in an intact forest reserve. We also found that irrespective of sampling site, vampire bats which consumed relatively more livestock showed shifts in some core bacteria compared with vampire bats which consumed relatively less livestock. The relative abundance of some core microbiota members was associated with innate immune function, suggesting that future research should consider the role of the host microbiota in immune defense and its relationship to zoonotic infection dynamics. We suggest that subsequent homogenization of diet and habitat loss through livestock rearing in the Neotropics may lead to disruption to the microbiota that could have downstream impacts on host immunity and cross‐species pathogen transmission.     

Ecological conditions predict the intensity of Hendra virus excretion over space and time from bat reservoir hosts

The ecological conditions experienced by wildlife reservoirs affect infection dynamics and thus the distribution of pathogen excreted into the environment. This spatial and temporal distribution of shed pathogen has been hypothesised to shape risks of zoonotic spillover. However, few systems have data on both long-term ecological conditions and pathogen excretion to advance mechanistic understanding and test environmental drivers of spillover risk. We here analyse three years of Hendra virus data from nine Australian flying fox roosts with covariates derived from long-term studies of bat ecology. We show that the magnitude of winter pulses of viral excretion, previously considered idiosyncratic, are most pronounced after recent food shortages and in bat populations displaced to novel habitats. We further show that cumulative pathogen excretion over time is shaped by bat ecology and positively predicts spillover frequency. Our work emphasises the role of reservoir host ecology in shaping pathogen excretion and provides a new approach to estimate spillover risk.     

A framework for the study of zoonotic disease emergence and its drivers: spillover of bat pathogens as a case study

Many serious emerging zoonotic infections have recently arisen from bats, including Ebola, Marburg, SARS-coronavirus, Hendra, Nipah, and a number of rabies and rabies-related viruses, consistent with the overall observation that wildlife are an important source of emerging zoonoses for the human population. Mechanisms underlying the recognized association between ecosystem health and human health remain poorly understood and responding appropriately to the ecological, social and economic conditions that facilitate disease emergence and transmission represents a substantial societal challenge. In the context of disease emergence from wildlife, wildlife and habitat should be conserved, which in turn will preserve vital ecosystem structure and function, which has broader implications for human wellbeing and environmental sustainability, while simultaneously minimizing the spillover of pathogens from wild animals into human beings. In this review, we propose a novel framework for the holistic and interdisciplinary investigation of zoonotic disease emergence and its drivers, using the spillover of bat pathogens as a case study. This study has been developed to gain a detailed interdisciplinary understanding, and it combines cutting-edge perspectives from both natural and social sciences, linked to policy impacts on public health, land use and conservation.     

Anticipating potential biodiversity conflicts for future biofuel crops in South Africa: incorporating spatial filters with species distribution models

Liquid biofuel production will likely have its greatest impact through the large‐scale changes in land use that will be required to meet the production of this energy source. In this study, we develop a framework which integrates species distribution models, land cover, land capability and various biodiversity conservation data to identify natural areas with (i) a potentially high risk of transformation for biofuel production and (ii) potential impact to biodiversity conservation areas. The framework was tested in the Eastern Cape of South Africa, a region which has been earmarked for the cultivation of biofuels. We expressly highlight the importance of biodiversity conservation data that enhance the protected area network to limit potential losses by comparing the overlap of areas likely to become cultivated with (i) protected areas; (ii) biodiversity hot spots not currently protected; and (iii) ‘ecological corridors’ (areas deemed important for the migration of species and linkages between important biodiversity areas). Results indicate that the introduction of spatial filters reduced available land from 54% to 45%. Including all biodiversity scenarios reduced available land to 15% of the Eastern Cape should avoiding conflict with biodiversity conservation areas be prioritized. The assumption that agriculturally marginal land offers a unique opportunity to be converted to biofuel crops does not consider the biodiversity value attached to these areas. We highlight that decisions relating to large‐scale transformation and changes in land cover need to take account of broader ecological processes. Determining the spatial extent of threats to biodiversity facilitates the analysis of spatial conflict. This article demonstrates a proactive approach for anticipating likely habitat transformation and provides an objective means of mitigating potential conflict with existing land use and biodiversity.     

Landscape-level toxicant exposure mediates infection impacts on wildlife populations

Anthropogenic landscape modification such as urbanization can expose wildlife to toxicants, with profound behavioural and health effects. Toxicant exposure can alter the local transmission of wildlife diseases by reducing survival or altering immune defence. However, predicting the impacts of pathogens on wildlife across their ranges is complicated by heterogeneity in toxicant exposure across the landscape, especially if toxicants alter wildlife movement from toxicant-contaminated to uncontaminated habitats. We developed a mechanistic model to explore how toxicant effects on host health and movement propensity influence range-wide pathogen transmission, and zoonotic exposure risk, as an increasing fraction of the landscape is toxicant-contaminated. When toxicant-contaminated habitat is scarce on the landscape, costs to movement and survival from toxicant exposure can trap infected animals in contaminated habitat and reduce landscape-level transmission. Increasing the proportion of contaminated habitat causes host population declines from combined effects of toxicants and infection. The onset of host declines precedes an increase in the density of infected hosts in contaminated habitat and thus may serve as an early warning of increasing potential for zoonotic spillover in urbanizing landscapes. These results highlight how sublethal effects of toxicants can determine pathogen impacts on wildlife populations that may not manifest until landscape contamination is widespread.     

Functional traits explain waterbirds' host status,subtype richness,and community-level infection risk for avian influenza

Species functional traits can influence pathogen transmission processes, and consequently affect species' host status, pathogen diversity, and community-level infection risk. We here investigated, for 143 European waterbird species, effects of functional traits on host status and pathogen diversity (subtype richness) for avian influenza virus at species level. We then explored the association between functional diversity and HPAI H5Nx occurrence at the community level for 2016/17 and 2021/22 epidemics in Europe. We found that both host status and subtype richness were shaped by several traits, such as diet guild and dispersal ability, and that the community-weighted means of these traits were also correlated with community-level risk of H5Nx occurrence. Moreover, functional divergence was negatively associated with H5Nx occurrence, indicating that functional diversity can reduce infection risk. Our findings highlight the value of integrating trait-based ecology into the framework of diversity–disease relationship, and provide new insights for HPAI prediction and prevention.     

Whither the Rangeland?: Protection and Conversion in California's Rangeland Ecosystems

Land use change in rangeland ecosystems is pervasive throughout the western United States with widespread ecological, social and economic implications. In California, rangeland habitats have high biodiversity value, provide significant habitat connectivity and form the foundation for a number of ecosystem services. To comprehensively assess the conservation status of these habitats, we analyzed the extent and drivers of habitat loss and the degree of protection against future loss across a 13.5 M ha study area in California. We analyzed rangeland conversion between 1984 and 2008 using time series GIS data and classified resulting land uses with aerial imagery. In total, over 195,000 hectares of rangeland habitats were converted during this period. The majority of conversions were to residential and associated commercial development (49% of the area converted), but agricultural intensification was surprisingly extensive and diverse (40% across six categories). Voluntary enrollment in an agricultural tax incentive program provided widespread protection from residential and commercial conversions across 37% of the remaining rangeland habitat extent (7.5 M ha), though this program did not protect rangeland from conversion to more intensive agricultural uses. Additionally, 24% of the remaining rangeland was protected by private conservation organizations or public agencies through land or easement ownership while 38% had no protection status at all. By developing a spatial method to analyze the drivers of loss and patterns of protection, this study demonstrates a novel approach to prioritize conservation strategies and implementation locations to avert habitat conversion. We propose that this approach can be used in other ecosystem types, and can serve as a regional conservation baseline assessment to focus strategies to effect widespread, cost-effective conservation solutions.     

Habitat loss and the limits to endangered species recovery

Canada is one of the last places on earth with extensive wilderness areas, yet the number of Canadian species threatened with extinction continues to rise every year. Using satellite‐derived land use data, we find that habitat loss explains most of the variation in numbers of endangered species across Canada. Habitat loss within species ranges is, therefore, likely to be the leading factor inhibiting their recovery. We measured habitat loss individually within the known ranges of 243 terrestrial species at risk of extinction across Canada. Recovery potential, as measured by extent of natural habitat within each species’ range, is bimodally distributed, but less than 50% of the range of the majority of Canada's species at risk is natural habitat and there is no detectable habitat remaining for 16 of the 243 species at risk. There were no differences in the recovery potential of species categorized either by threat level (special concern, threatened, or endangered) or taxon. Despite having extensive wilderness areas, Canada has similar rates of endangerment to other countries in the Americas, underlining the effect of severe habitat loss to intensive agriculture that has occurred in Canada's most biologically diverse regions. Improvements to protected areas networks and especially cooperative conservation activities with private landowners will do the most to improve the recovery prospects of species at risk in Canada.     

How,and how much,natural cover loss increases species richness

Aim The species–area relationship has been applied in the conservation context to predict monotonic species richness declines as natural area is converted to human‐dominated land covers. However, some conversion of natural cover could introduce new habitat types and allow new open habitat species to occur. Moreover, decelerating richness–area relationships suggest that, as natural area is converted to human‐dominated covers, more species will be added to the rare habitat than are lost from the common one. Area effects and increased habitat diversity could each lead to a peaked relationship between species richness and the relative amount of natural area. The purpose of this study is to quantify the effect on avian species richness of conversion of natural area to human‐dominated land cover. Location Ontario, Canada. Methods We evaluated the responses of total avian richness, forest bird richness and open habitat bird richness to remaining natural area within 993 quadrats, each of 100 km². We quantified the amount of natural land cover and land‐cover heterogeneity using remote sensing data. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to disentangle the relationships among avian richness, natural area and land‐cover heterogeneity. Results Spatial variation in avian richness was a peaked function of remaining natural area, such that losses of up to 44% of the natural area increased avian richness. This partly reflects increased variety of land cover; however, SEM suggests that much of the increase in richness is due to pure area effects. Richness of forest species declined by two species over this range of natural cover loss while open habitat bird richness increased by approximately 20 species. The effect of natural area on species richness is consistent with the sum of species–area curves for natural habitat species and human‐dominated habitat species. Main conclusions At least in northern temperate forests, almost half of the natural land cover can be converted to human‐dominated forms before avian richness declines. Conversion of < 50% of regional natural area to human‐dominated land cover can benefit open‐area species richness with relatively few losses of forest obligate species. However, with > 50% natural area conversion, species begin to drop out of regional assemblages.     

建设用地减量化的苏锡常地区土地利用格局优化——基于白鹭生境网络优化视角

建设用地减量化管理国家战略的本质就是土地利用格局优化,具有重要理论价值和实践意义。以建设用地减量化为背景、快速城市化苏锡常地区为研究区,采用目标物种白鹭生境网络优化为减量化依据的方法,旨在回答"建设用地怎么减?减哪里?减多少?依据是什么?"的土地利用格局优化问题。结果表明:1)白鹭核心生境斑块距离人为干扰源较远,需减量化的建设用地数量较少,但多数核心生境斑块面积小于平均值,破碎化现象较严重;白鹭迁移廊道受人为干扰严重,需减量化的建设用地数量为6542.1 hm~2,占减量化总面积的99%以上;生态核心区经过耕地占补平衡后,城乡建设用地二次减量213.7 hm~2、新增水田208.7 hm~2;研究区建设用地减量化总面积6755.8 hm~2。2)通过增加核心生境斑块面积、提高迁移廊道通达安全性,白鹭生境网络优化了。同时完成了建设用地总量减量化,实现了区域土地利用格局优化的目的。     

The effect of climate change on the occurrence and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain: a review

There is strong evidence to suggest that climate change has, and will continue to affect the occurrence, distribution and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain (GB). This paper reviews how climate change could affect livestock diseases in GB. Factors influenced by climate change and that could affect livestock diseases include the molecular biology of the pathogen itself; vectors (if any); farming practice and land use; zoological and environmental factors; and the establishment of new microenvironments and microclimates. The interaction of these factors is an important consideration in forecasting how livestock diseases may be affected. Risk assessments should focus on looking for combinations of factors that may be directly affected by climate change, or that may be indirectly affected through changes in human activity, such as land use (e.g. deforestation), transport and movement of animals, intensity of livestock farming and habitat change. A risk assessment framework is proposed, based on modules that accommodate these factors. This framework could be used to screen for the emergence of unexpected disease events.     

Multiple scales of selection influence the evolutionary emergence of novel pathogens

When pathogens encounter a novel environment, such as a new host species or treatment with an antimicrobial drug, their fitness may be reduced so that adaptation is necessary to avoid extinction. Evolutionary emergence is the process by which new pathogen strains arise in response to such selective pressures. Theoretical studies over the last decade have clarified some determinants of emergence risk, but have neglected the influence of fitness on evolutionary rates and have not accounted for the multiple scales at which pathogens must compete successfully. We present a cross-scale theory for evolutionary emergence, which embeds a mechanistic model of within-host selection into a stochastic model for emergence at the population scale. We explore how fitness landscapes at within-host and between-host scales can interact to influence the probability that a pathogen lineage will emerge successfully. Results show that positive correlations between fitnesses across scales can greatly facilitate emergence, while cross-scale conflicts in selection can lead to evolutionary dead ends. The local genotype space of the initial strain of a pathogen can have disproportionate influence on emergence probability. Our cross-scale model represents a step towards integrating laboratory experiments with field surveillance data to create a rational framework to assess emergence risk.     

The maintenance of a positive spatial correlation between South African bird species richness and human population density

Aim To investigate explanations for the maintenance of a positive spatial species richness–human population density correlation at broad scales, despite the negative impact of humans on species richness. These are (hypotheses 1–4): (1) human activities that create a habitat mosaic and (2) a more favourable climate, and (3) adequate conservation measures (e.g. sufficient natural habitat), maintain the positive species richness–human density correlation; or (4) the full range of human densities decrease the slope of the correlation without changing its form. Location South Africa. Methods Avian species richness data from atlas distribution maps and human population density data derived from 2001 census results were converted to a quarter‐degree resolution. We investigated the number of land transformation types (anthropogenic habitat heterogeneity), irrigated area (increasing productivity), and other covarying factors (e.g. primary productivity) as predictors of species richness. We compared species richness–human density relationships among regions with different amounts of natural habitat, and investigated whether the full range of human densities decrease species richness in relation to primary productivity. Results Hypotheses 1, 2 and 3 were supported. Human densities and activities that increase habitat heterogeneity and productivity are important beneficial factors to common species, but not to rare species. The species richness–human density relationship persists only at low land transformation levels, and no significant relationship exists at higher levels. For common species, the relationship becomes non‐significant at lower land transformation levels than for rare species. Main conclusions The persistence of the species richness–human density relationship depends mostly on the amount of remaining natural habitat. In addition, certain human activities benefit especially common species. Common species seem to be more flexible than rare species in response to human activity and habitat loss.     

Rapid redistribution of agricultural land alters avian richness,abundance, and functional diversity

The conversion of natural, or seminatural, habitats to agricultural land and changes in agricultural land use are significant drivers of biodiversity loss. Within the context of land‐sharing versus land‐sparing debates, large‐scale commercial agriculture is known to be detrimental to biodiversity, but the effects of small‐scale subsistence farming on biodiversity are disputed. This poses a problem for sustainable land‐use management in the Global South, where approximately 30% of farmland is small‐scale. Following a rapid land redistribution program in Zimbabwe, we evaluated changes in avian biodiversity by examining richness, abundance, and functional diversity. Rapid land redistribution has, in the near term, resulted in increased avian abundance in newly farmed areas containing miombo woodland and open habitat. Conversion of seminatural ranched land to small‐scale farms had a negative impact on larger‐bodied birds, but species richness increased, and birds in some feeding guilds maintained or increased abundance. We found evidence that land‐use change caused a shift in the functional traits of the communities present. However, functional analyses may not have adequately reflected the trait filtering effect of land redistribution on large species. Whether newly farmed landscapes in Zimbabwe can deliver multiple benefits in terms of food production and habitat for biodiversity in the longer term is an open question. When managing agricultural land transitions, relying on taxonomic measures of diversity, or abundance‐weighted measures of function diversity, may obscure important information. If the value of smallholder‐farmed land for birds is to be maintained or improved, it will be essential to ensure that a wide array of habitat types is retained alongside efforts to reduce hunting and persecution of large bird species.     

Urbanization-induced site condition changes of peri-urban cultivated land in the black soil region of northeast China

The site condition of cultivated land greatly influences the utilization and management of cultivated land resources and is an element that is disturbed tremendously by urbanization. Since the rejuvenation of the northeast old industrial base strategy in 2003, urbanization in northeast China has progressed rapidly. The excessive urban sprawl has profoundly changed land use structure in the peri-urban area of the black soil region, and the subsequent site condition changes will impede the full utilization of cultivated land resources. This study used the suburb of Changchun Kuancheng District as an empirical case, and employed a patch-scale site assessment system to analyze dynamic changes in cultivated land site conditions at a typical rural-urban interface of the black soil region from 2004 to 2014. Cultivated land loss and land use changes were prominent in the study area and the land conversion rate was shown to be accelerating. Most of the occupied cultivated land was converted to urban areas such as industrial land or urban settlements. However, a part of the occupied cultivated land was left unutilized, which indicates how the urban sprawl is jeopardizing benefits of both urban development and cultivated land protection. Besides direct occupation of cultivated land resources, urbanization has led to a loss of cultivated land with good site conditions and a deterioration of the site conditions of unconverted cultivated land in the peri-urban area. Urbanization has fragmented peri-urban cultivated land, increased farming distance and brought more frequent anthropogenic disturbances. On the other hand, it has also improved transportation conditions and the local ecological environment. As site condition is believed to be closely related to both cultivated land loss and cultivation abandonment, the deterioration will aggravate the loss of cultivated land resources in a disguised form.     

Shifts in diversification rates and host jump frequencies shaped the diversity of host range among Sclerotiniaceae fungal plant pathogens

The range of hosts that a parasite can infect in nature is a trait determined by its own evolutionary history and that of its potential hosts. However, knowledge on host range diversity and evolution at the family level is often lacking. Here, we investigate host range variation and diversification trends within the Sclerotiniaceae, a family of Ascomycete fungi. Using a phylogenetic framework, we associate diversification rates, the frequency of host jump events and host range variation during the evolution of this family. Variations in diversification rate during the evolution of the Sclerotiniaceae define three major macro‐evolutionary regimes with contrasted proportions of species infecting a broad range of hosts. Host–parasite cophylogenetic analyses pointed towards parasite radiation on distant hosts long after host speciation (host jump or duplication events) as the dominant mode of association with plants in the Sclerotiniaceae. The intermediate macro‐evolutionary regime showed a low diversification rate, high frequency of duplication events and the highest proportion of broad host range species. Our findings suggest that the emergence of broad host range fungal pathogens results largely from host jumps, as previously reported for oomycete parasites, probably combined with low speciation rates. These results have important implications for our understanding of fungal parasites evolution and are of particular relevance for the durable management of disease epidemics.     

A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion

A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km²) and could result in half of the world’s biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth’s at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.     

How do pathogen evolution and host heterogeneity interact in disease emergence?

Heterogeneity in the parameters governing the spread of infectious diseases is a common feature of real-world epidemics. It has been suggested that for pathogens with basic reproductive number R(0)>1, increasing heterogeneity makes extinction of disease more likely during the early rounds of transmission. The basic reproductive number R(0) of the introduced pathogen may, however, be less than 1 after the introduction, and evolutionary changes are then required for R(0) to increase to above 1 and the pathogen to emerge. In this paper, we consider how host heterogeneity influences the emergence of both non-evolving pathogens and those that must undergo adaptive changes to spread in the host population. In contrast to previous results, we find that heterogeneity does not always make extinction more likely and that if adaptation is required for emergence, the effect of host heterogeneity is relatively small. We discuss the application of these ideas to vaccination strategies.     

Mapping of Ebola virus spillover: Suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale

The unexpected Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 involving the Zaire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside Central Africa, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics. The complex transmission cycle and a lack of epidemiological data make mapping areas at risk of the disease challenging. We used a Geographic Information System-based multicriteria evaluation (GIS-MCE), a knowledge-based approach, to identify areas suitable for Ebola virus spillover to humans in regions of Guinea, Congo and Gabon where Ebola viruses already emerged. We identified environmental, climatic and anthropogenic risk factors and potential hosts from a literature review. Geographical data layers, representing risk factors, were combined to produce suitability maps of Ebola virus spillover at the landscape scale. Our maps show high spatial and temporal variability in the suitability for Ebola virus spillover at a fine regional scale. Reported spillover events fell in areas of intermediate to high suitability in our maps, and a sensitivity analysis showed that the maps produced were robust. There are still important gaps in our knowledge about what factors are associated with the risk of Ebola virus spillover. As more information becomes available, maps produced using the GIS-MCE approach can be easily updated to improve surveillance and the prevention of future outbreaks.