Flying Over an Infected Landscape: Distribution of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Risk in South Asia and Satellite Tracking of Wild Waterfowl

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus persists in Asia, posing a threat to poultry, wild birds, and humans. Previous work in Southeast Asia demonstrated that HPAI H5N1 risk is related to domestic ducks and people. Other studies discussed the role of migratory birds in the long distance spread of HPAI H5N1. However, the interplay between local persistence and long-distance dispersal has never been studied. We expand previous geospatial risk analysis to include South and Southeast Asia, and integrate the analysis with migration data of satellite-tracked wild waterfowl along the Central Asia flyway. We find that the population of domestic duck is the main factor delineating areas at risk of HPAI H5N1 spread in domestic poultry in South Asia, and that other risk factors, such as human population and chicken density, are associated with HPAI H5N1 risk within those areas. We also find that satellite tracked birds (Ruddy Shelduck and two Bar-headed Geese) reveal a direct spatio-temporal link between the HPAI H5N1 hot-spots identified in India and Bangladesh through our risk model, and the wild bird outbreaks in May-June-July 2009 in China (Qinghai Lake), Mongolia, and Russia. This suggests that the continental-scale dynamics of HPAI H5N1 are structured as a number of persistence areas delineated by domestic ducks, connected by rare transmission through migratory waterfowl.     

Eco-virological approach for assessing the role of wild birds in the spread of avian influenza H5N1 along the Central Asian Flyway

A unique pattern of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks has emerged along the Central Asia Flyway, where infection of wild birds has been reported with steady frequency since 2005. We assessed the potential for two hosts of HPAI H5N1, the bar-headed goose (Anser indicus) and ruddy shelduck (Tadorna tadorna), to act as agents for virus dispersal along this 'thoroughfare'. We used an eco-virological approach to compare the migration of 141 birds marked with GPS satellite transmitters during 2005-2010 with: 1) the spatio-temporal patterns of poultry and wild bird outbreaks of HPAI H5N1, and 2) the trajectory of the virus in the outbreak region based on phylogeographic mapping. We found that biweekly utilization distributions (UDs) for 19.2% of bar-headed geese and 46.2% of ruddy shelduck were significantly associated with outbreaks. Ruddy shelduck showed highest correlation with poultry outbreaks owing to their wintering distribution in South Asia, where there is considerable opportunity for HPAI H5N1 spillover from poultry. Both species showed correlation with wild bird outbreaks during the spring migration, suggesting they may be involved in the northward movement of the virus. However, phylogeographic mapping of HPAI H5N1 clades 2.2 and 2.3 did not support dissemination of the virus in a northern direction along the migration corridor. In particular, two subclades (2.2.1 and 2.3.2) moved in a strictly southern direction in contrast to our spatio-temporal analysis of bird migration. Our attempt to reconcile the disciplines of wild bird ecology and HPAI H5N1 virology highlights prospects offered by both approaches as well as their limitations.     

Mucosal Tolerance to a Combination of ApoB and HSP60 Peptides Controls Plaque Progression and Stabilizes Vulnerable Plaque in Apobtm2SgyLdlrtm1Her/J Mice

Oral tolerance to auto antigens reduces the development of atherosclerosis in mouse models. However, the effect of immune tolerance to multiple self antigenic peptides in plaque progression and stabilization is not known. We studied the protective effect of mucosal tolerance to peptides from apolipoprotein B (ApoB; 661–680) and heat shock protein 60 (HSP60; 153–163), in combination with diet, in the prevention of atherosclerotic lesion progression and plaque stabilization in ApoB^tm25gyLDLr^tm1Her mice. We found that oral administration of five doses of a combination of ApoB and HSP60 peptides (20 µg/mice/dose) induced tolerance to both the peptides and reduced early plaque development by 39.9% better than the individual peptides (ApoB = 28.7%;HSP60 = 26.8%)(P<0.001). Oral tolerance to combination of peptides along with diet modification arrested plaque progression by 37.6% which was associated with increases in T-regulatory cell and transforming growth factor-β expression in the plaque and peripheral circulation. Reduced macrophage infiltration and tumor necrosis factor-α expression in the plaque was also observed. Tolerance with continued hypercholesterolemia resulted in 60.8% reduction in necrotic core area suggesting plaque stabilization, which was supported by reduction in apoptosis and increased efferocytosis demonstrated by greater expression of receptor tyrosine kinase Mer (MerTK) in the plaque. Tolerance to the two peptides also reduced the expression of matrix metalloproteinase 9, tissue factor, calprotectin, and increased its collagen content. Our study suggests that oral tolerance to ApoB and HSP60 peptide combination induces CD4⁺ CTLA4⁺ Tregs and CD4⁺CD25⁺Foxp3⁺ Tregs secreting TGF-β, which inhibit pathogenic T cell response to both peptides thus reducing the development and progression of atherosclerosis and provides evidence for plaque stabilization in ApoB^tm25gyLDLr^tm1Her mice.     

Functional traits explain waterbirds' host status,subtype richness,and community-level infection risk for avian influenza

Species functional traits can influence pathogen transmission processes, and consequently affect species' host status, pathogen diversity, and community-level infection risk. We here investigated, for 143 European waterbird species, effects of functional traits on host status and pathogen diversity (subtype richness) for avian influenza virus at species level. We then explored the association between functional diversity and HPAI H5Nx occurrence at the community level for 2016/17 and 2021/22 epidemics in Europe. We found that both host status and subtype richness were shaped by several traits, such as diet guild and dispersal ability, and that the community-weighted means of these traits were also correlated with community-level risk of H5Nx occurrence. Moreover, functional divergence was negatively associated with H5Nx occurrence, indicating that functional diversity can reduce infection risk. Our findings highlight the value of integrating trait-based ecology into the framework of diversity–disease relationship, and provide new insights for HPAI prediction and prevention.