Testing parameter sensitivities and uncertainty analysis of Biome-BGC model in simulating carbon and water fluxes in broadleaved-Korean pine forests

生态过程模型的发展为研究者在长时间序列和区域尺度的研究提供了便利, 但模型模拟的准确性受到模型自身结构、模型参数估计合理性的影响。敏感性分析能够定量或定性筛选出对模型模拟结果影响较大的敏感参数, 是模型参数校准过程中的重要工具, 也是建模和应用的先决条件。该文以阔叶红松林为研究对象, 采用全局敏感性分析方法——傅里叶幅度灵敏度检验扩展法(EFAST)对Biome-BGC模型的生理生态参数进行了敏感性分析, 分别分析了红松(Pinus koraiensis)和阔叶树的净初级生产力(NPP)、蒸散(ET)对参数变化的敏感性。结果表明: (1)模拟红松NPP的不确定性高于阔叶树, 但二者的模拟ET的不确定性均较小。阔叶树的NPP和ET对生理生态参数的敏感性总体上都小于红松。(2)无论是红松、阔叶或其他植被类型, 模拟NPP均表现出对叶片碳氮比、细根碳氮比、比叶面积(SLA)和冠层截留系数的敏感性, 这4个参数的高敏感性主要是由模型自身结构所决定的, 与植被类型和研究地区的关系较小。对模拟ET而言, 细根与叶片碳分配比、新茎与新叶碳分配比和SLA均是影响红松和阔叶树ET的敏感参数, 但红松ET主要受参数与参数间的二阶或多阶交互作用的间接影响, 而阔叶树ET则主要是受到敏感参数直接效应的影响。(3)除了上述影响红松和阔叶树碳水通量的共性参数外, 诸如核酮糖-1,5-二磷酸羧化酶中叶氮含量、叶片与细根周转率、所有叶面积与投影叶面积之比等也是对模拟结果有影响的重要参数, 但是其敏感程度随物种不同和研究区不同而不同, 所以这类参数可以根据具体情况进行参数本地化, 对于其他不敏感参数则可以采用模型缺省值。     

Effect of soil water stress on soil respiration and its temperature sensitivity in an 18-year-old temperate Douglas-fir stand

We analyzed 17 months (August 2005 to December 2006) of continuous measurements of soil CO₂ efflux or soil respiration (R_S) in an 18‐year‐old west‐coast temperate Douglas‐fir stand that experienced somewhat greater than normal summertime water deficit. For soil water content at the 4 cm depth (θ) > 0.11 m³ m^?3 (corresponding to a soil water matric potential of ?2 MPa), R_S was positively correlated to soil temperature at the 2 cm depth (T_S). Below this value of θ, however, R_S was largely decoupled from T_S, and evapotranspiration, ecosystem respiration and gross primary productivity (GPP) began to decrease, dropping to about half of their maximum values when θ reached 0.07 m³ m^?3. Soil water deficit substantially reduced R_S sensitivity to temperature resulting in a Q₁₀ significantly < 2. The absolute temperature sensitivity of R_S (i.e. dR_S/dT_S) increased with θ up to 0.15 m³ m^?3, above which it slowly declined. The value of dR_S/dT_S was nearly 0 for θ < 0.08 m³ m^?3, thereby confirming that R_S was largely unaffected by temperature under soil water stress conditions. Despite the possible effects of seasonality of photosynthesis, root activity and litterfall on R_S, the observed decrease in its temperature sensitivity at low θ was consistent with the reduction in substrate availability due to a decrease in (a) microbial mobility, and diffusion of substrates and extracellular enzymes, and (b) the fraction of substrate that can react at high T_S, which is associated with low θ. We found that an exponential (van't Hoff type) model with Q₁₀ and R₁₀ dependent on only θ explained 92% of the variance in half‐hourly values of R_S, including the period with soil water stress conditions. We hypothesize that relating Q₁₀ and R₁₀ to θ not only accounted for the effects of T_S on R_S and its temperature sensitivity but also accounted for the seasonality of biotic (photosynthesis, root activity, and litterfall) and abiotic (soil moisture and temperature) controls and their interactions.     

科尔沁沙地典型固沙人工林地土壤水分时空特征及其对环境因子的响应

土壤水分时空动态特征对于干旱地区人工林的可持续经营与管理起着至关重要的作用。以位于科尔沁沙地南缘的樟子松和柠条固沙人工林为对象，于2018年11月-2019年11月连续观测了林地0-200 cm土壤剖面的含水量、温度及微气象因子，系统分析了土壤水分的时空变化特征及其对环境因子的响应。研究期内，两种林地土壤水分的季节变化可分为冻结期、补充期、消耗期和稳定期；依据土壤剖面的水分特征可分为易变层、活跃层和稳定层，但两种林地的分层深度有一定差异。在生长季内（5-10月），土壤含水量对大气降雨的响应随着土层深度的增加而减弱；降雨对樟子松人工林0-20 cm层土壤水分的影响极显著（P<0.01），对柠条人工林0-10 cm层的影响极显著（P<0.01）、20-60 cm层显著（P<0.05）。在土壤冻融周期内（2018年11月-2019年4月），两种林地的土壤均表现为"单向冻结"和"双向融化"的特点；土壤温度是影响冻融期内土壤含水量的关键因素，两者呈极显著的指数函数关系；樟子松和柠条人工林土壤的最大冻结深度分别为170 cm和190 cm，前者10 cm土层解冻时间要比后者晚11 d，可能与乔木树冠的遮阴作用有关。潜在蒸散与柠条林0-60 cm层、樟子松林0-20 cm和200 cm层的土壤水分呈极显著相关（P<0.01），而与樟子松林60 cm和160 cm层呈显著相关（P<0.05），这与树木蒸腾和土壤蒸发等综合作用有关。研究表明，由于两种人工林的树种组成、树冠大小、郁闭程度和根系分布等结构特征不同会导致林地土壤水分时空特征的异质性及其对环境因素响应的差异。     

Interaction of hydrology and nutrient limitation in the Ridge and Slough landscape of the southern Everglades

Extensive portions of the southern Everglades are characterized by series of elongated, raised peat ridges and tree islands oriented parallel to the predominant flow direction, separated by intervening sloughs. Tall herbs or woody species are associated with higher elevations and shorter emergent or floating species are associated with lower elevations. The organic soils in this “Ridge-and-Slough” landscape have been stable over millennia in many locations, but degrade over decades under altered hydrologic conditions. We examined soil, pore water, and leaf phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) distributions in six Ridge and Slough communities in Shark Slough, Everglades National Park. We found P enrichment to increase and N to decrease monotonically along a gradient from the most persistently flooded sloughs to rarely flooded ridge environments, with the most dramatic change associated with the transition from marsh to forest. Leaf N:P ratios indicated that the marsh communities were strongly P-limited, while data from several forest types suggested either N-limitation or co-limitation by N and P. Ground water stage in forests exhibited a daytime decrease and partial nighttime recovery during periods of surface exposure. The recovery phase suggested re-supply from adjacent flooded marshes or the underlying aquifer, and a strong hydrologic connection between ridge and slough. We therefore developed a simple steady-state model to explore a mechanism by which a phosphorus conveyor belt driven by both evapotranspiration and the regional flow gradient can contribute to the characteristic Ridge and Slough pattern. The model demonstrated that evapotranspiration sinks at higher elevations can draw in low concentration marsh waters, raising local soil and water P concentrations. Focusing of flow and nutrients at the evapotranspiration zone is not strong enough to overcome the regional gradient entirely, allowing the nutrient to spread downstream and creating an elongated concentration plume in the direction of flow. Our analyses suggest that autogenic processes involving the effects of initially small differences in topography, via their interactions with hydrology and nutrient availability, can produce persistent physiographic patterns in the organic sediments of the Everglades.     

Separating the effects of climate and vegetation on evapotranspiration along a successional chronosequence in the southeastern US

We combined Eddy‐covariance measurements with a linear perturbation analysis to isolate the relative contribution of physical and biological drivers on evapotranspiration (ET) in three ecosystems representing two end‐members and an intermediate stage of a successional gradient in the southeastern US (SE). The study ecosystems, an abandoned agricultural field [old field (OF)], an early successional planted pine forest (PP), and a late‐successional hardwood forest (HW), exhibited differential sensitivity to the wide range of climatic and hydrologic conditions encountered over the 4‐year measurement period, which included mild and severe droughts and an ice storm. ET and modeled transpiration differed by as much as 190 and 270 mm yr^?1, respectively, between years for a given ecosystem. Soil water supply, rather than atmospheric demand, was the principal external driver of interannual ET differences. ET at OF was sensitive to climatic variability, and results showed that decreased leaf area index (L) under mild and severe drought conditions reduced growing season (GS) ET (ET_GS) by ca. 80 mm compared with a year with normal precipitation. Under wet conditions, higher intrinsic stomatal conductance (g_s) increased ET_GS by 50 mm. ET at PP was generally larger than the other ecosystems and was highly sensitive to climate; a 50 mm decrease in ET_GS due to the loss of L from an ice storm equaled the increase in ET from high precipitation during a wet year. In contrast, ET at HW was relatively insensitive to climatic variability. Results suggest that recent management trends toward increasing the land‐cover area of PP‐type ecosystems in the SE may increase the sensitivity of ET to climatic variability.     

Ecohydrological impacts of woody-plant encroachment: seasonal patterns of water and carbon dioxide exchange within a semiarid riparian environment

Across many dryland regions, historically grass‐dominated ecosystems have been encroached upon by woody‐plant species. In this paper, we compare ecosystem water and carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes over a grassland, a grassland–shrubland mosaic, and a fully developed woodland to evaluate potential consequences of woody‐plant encroachment on important ecosystem processes. All three sites were located in the riparian corridor of a river in the southwest US. As such, plants in these ecosystems may have access to moisture at the capillary fringe of the near‐surface water table. Using fluxes measured by eddy covariance in 2003 we found that ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET) and net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide (NEE) increased with increasing woody‐plant dominance. Growing season ET totals were 407, 450, and 639 mm in the grassland, shrubland, and woodland, respectively, and in excess of precipitation by 227, 265, and 473 mm. This excess was derived from groundwater, especially during the extremely dry premonsoon period when this was the only source of moisture available to plants. Access to groundwater by the deep‐rooted woody plants apparently decouples ecosystem ET from gross ecosystem production (GEP) with respect to precipitation. Compared with grasses, the woody plants were better able to use the stable groundwater source and had an increased net CO₂ gain during the dry periods. This enhanced plant activity resulted in substantial accumulation of leaf litter on the soil surface that, during rainy periods, may lead to high microbial respiration rates that offset these photosynthetic fluxes. March–December (primary growing season) totals of NEE were ?63, ?212, and ?233 g C m^?2 in the grassland, shrubland, and woodland, respectively. Thus, there was a greater disparity between ecosystem water use and the strength of the CO₂ sink as woody plants increased across the encroachment gradient. Despite a higher density of woody plants and a greater plant productivity in the woodland than in the shrubland, the woodland produced a larger respiration response to rainfall that largely offset its higher photosynthetic potential. These data suggest that the capacity for woody plants to exploit water resources in riparian areas results in enhanced carbon sequestration at the expense of increased groundwater use under current climate conditions, but the potential does not scale specifically as a function of woody‐plant abundance. These results highlight the important roles of water sources and ecosystem structure on the control of water and carbon balances in dryland areas.     

油松天然群体的种实性状表型多样性研究

为了揭示油松天然种群在不同地理环境条件下表型变异的程度和规律,在油松整个天然分布范围内选择了12个具有代表性的居群作为研究对象,对其球果、种子、种翅等12个种实性状的变异程度及其与环境因子间关系进行了比较分析。结果显示:(1)各个性状在居群内和居群间均存在较大的变异(CV>12%)。其中千山(QS),曾家镇(ZJ)和互助(HZ)3个居群表现出了较高的变异(CV>20%),而球果干重(CDW)和种子长(CL)是所有表型性状中变异幅度最大的(CV分别为31%和21%),但种翅性状与其他性状相比具有较高的稳定性。(2)巢式设计方差分析表明,在居群内表型分化系数(Vst)变化在3.18%~89.86%之间,而群体间的Vst为38.97%;与其他针叶树种相比,油松拥有较高的表型分化系数,且居群内的变异程度远高于居群间的变异,尤其是千山(QS)、曾家镇(ZJ)和互助(HZ)3个居群,这说明油松具有较高的环境异质性适应能力或恶劣环境耐受能力。(3)相关性分析表明,该研究的各形态特征与潜在蒸发量均为负相关,且大部分形态指标间及它们与潜在蒸发量间存在显著相关性,表明潜在蒸发量是油松形态特征变化的最重要环境影响因子,预示油松最适宜生长于温暖潮湿的环境中;并表明因各形态特征间相互紧密关联,所以它们受环境条件影响而共变。     

2000-2015年中国陆地生态系统蒸散时空变化及其影响因素

准确量化区域蒸散时空格局及其影响因素对理解陆地生态系统碳水循环具有十分重要的意义。近年来中国经历了严重的空气污染及气候波动,亟须探讨蒸散的时空变化及其影响因素。基于PT-JPL（Priestly-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory）模型,集成遥感数据和气象数据模拟了中国陆地生态系统2000-2015年蒸散,并分析其时空变化及影响因素。结果表明：1）参数优化后PT-JPL模型可解释蒸散年际变化的68%,优于原始模型及MODIS蒸散产品;2）中国地区多年平均蒸散为440.16 mm/a,呈东南沿海到西北内陆逐渐递减的空间格局;3）2000-2015年蒸散整体呈轻微下降趋势（slope=6.48 Gt/a,P=0.17）,但具有年代际差异,2000-2010年中国地区蒸散呈显著下降趋势（slope=21.05,P < 0.01）,占全国蒸散总量45.05%的内蒙古地区、甘新地区、黄土高原地区及青藏地区解释了61.88%的年际变化;2010-2015年呈轻微上升趋势（slope=10.48,P=0.71）,各地区均无显著变化趋势;4）辐射主导了蒸散的年代际差异,分别解释了2010年前后蒸散下降及上升趋势的51.45%、85.26%。蒸散呈显著变化趋势的内蒙古地区、黄土高原地区及青藏地区主要受辐射控制,甘新地区主要受降水和温度的影响。     

三北工程黄土高原丘陵沟壑区森林降温增湿效果研究

生态系统可通过植被蒸腾与土壤蒸发作用调节区域温度与湿度。三北工程黄土高原丘陵沟壑区属于干旱和半干旱区,森林降温增湿功能有助于改善区域生存环境。在分析研究区森林覆被变化基础上,利用Penman-Monteith公式模拟了森林实际蒸散量,研究了森林增湿与降温效果。研究结果显示:(1)1980—2015年研究区森林面积增加了2.25%,主要来自荒草地、耕地和荒漠;(2)1980—2015年研究区森林6—9月实际蒸散总量为1.19×10~(10)—1.40×10~(10) t/a,平均实际蒸散量为219—257 mm,可使区域6—9月绝对湿度每日增加0.47—0.55 g/m~3,相对湿度每日增加2.87%—3.32%;(3)森林通过蒸散作用吸热量为29.15×10~(15)—34.26×10~(15) kJ/a,单位面积蒸散吸热量为53.72×10~8—63.13×10~8 kJ hm~(-2) a~(-1),通过蒸散吸热日降温量为0.92—1.08℃/d;(4)研究区森林蒸散量在1980—2010年逐渐增加,但在2015年明显下降,这主要是由降水减少导致;森林面积较大的山西和陕西森林蒸散降温增湿效果较好。通过对比相同年份不同土地覆被发现,森林实际蒸散量显著高于其他土地覆被类型。因此,未来研究区可在水资源承载能力范围内适当增加森林面积,充分发挥森林调节区域气候的作用。     

基于SPEI指数的淮河流域干旱时空演变特征及影响研究

运用淮河流域149个气象站1962—2016年逐日气温、降水资料以及历史旱情资料,基于SPEI、EOF和M-K等方法分析淮河流域的干旱时空特征,研究干旱的时空演变规律并揭示其对农业生产的影响。结果表明:(1)基于SPEI得到的干旱频次与受灾、成灾面积的相关性通过了0.1的显著性水平检验,表明SPEI在淮河流域具有较好的适用性;(2)淮河流域干旱发生时间差异明显,干旱次数呈现波动变化,发生重旱和特旱次数占总干旱的比重是20.0%,其中重旱和特旱在1960s比重最大(24.8%),其次是2010s(15.8%),在1980s比重最低(10.0%);(3)干旱的空间分布差异大,淮河流域干旱频率在27.76%—36.04%之间,西北部和东南部发生干旱强度较西南部、东北部及中部低;(4)淮河流域总体呈干旱化的趋势,从中部到四周呈现由高到低递减的趋势变化,且空间模态表现为全区一致型、南北相反型和东西相反型。