Modelling biome shifts and tree cover change for 2050 in West Africa

Aim Africa is expected to face severe changes in climatic conditions. Our objectives are: (1) to model trends and the extent of future biome shifts that may occur by 2050, (2) to model a trend in tree cover change, while accounting for human impact, and (3) to evaluate uncertainty in future climate projections. Location West Africa. Methods We modelled the potential future spatial distribution of desert, grassland, savanna, deciduous and evergreen forest in West Africa using six bioclimatic models. Future tree cover change was analysed with generalized additive models (GAMs). We used climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) and included human population density and fire intensity to model tree cover. Consensus projections were derived via weighted averages to: (1) reduce inter‐model variability, and (2) describe trends extracted from different GCM projections. Results The strongest predicted effect of climate change was on desert and grasslands, where the bioclimatic envelope of grassland is projected to expand into the desert by an area of 2 million km². While savannas are predicted to contract in the south (by 54 ± 22 × 10⁴ km²), deciduous and evergreen forest biomes are expected to expand (64 ± 13 × 10⁴ km² and 77 ± 26 × 10⁴ km²). However, uncertainty due to different GCMs was particularly high for the grassland and the evergreen biome shift. Increasing tree cover (1–10%) was projected for large parts of Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo, but a decrease was projected for coastal areas (1–20%). Furthermore, human impact negatively affected tree cover and partly changed the direction of the projected change from increase to decrease. Main conclusions Considering climate change alone, the model results of potential vegetation (biomes) show a ‘greening’ trend by 2050. However, the modelled effects of human impact suggest future forest degradation. Thus, it is essential to consider both climate change and human impact in order to generate realistic future tree cover projections.     

接种丛枝菌根真菌对云南石漠化土壤呼吸的影响

为探明"丛枝菌根（Arbuscular mycorrhiza，AM）真菌-植物-土壤"耦合作用对石漠化土壤呼吸季节动态的影响，采用LI-6400-09土壤呼吸室和便携式光合作用测量系统，对圆柏（Sabina chinensis）接种摩西斗管囊霉（Funneliformis mosseae，FM）、根内根孢囊霉（Rhizophagus intraradices，RI）2种AM菌种处理下土壤呼吸季节动态进行野外连续定位观测，并探究AM真菌接种处理下石漠化土壤呼吸速率与植物生长、土壤理化性质之间的关系。结果表明：（1）相较于对照，接种AM真菌对石漠化生境土壤呼吸季节动态产生了显著影响（P<0.01）。AM真菌处理具有较高的土壤呼吸季节变化幅度，即根内根孢囊霉处理土壤呼吸速率（1.55-9.10 μmol m^-2 s^-1）显著高于摩西斗管囊霉（1.62-8.29 μmol m^-2 s^-1）和对照（1.23-4.46 μmol m^-2 s^-1）；（2） AM真菌接种处理下土壤温湿度变化对土壤呼吸的影响显著大于对照，即土壤温度与水分对土壤呼吸的平均解释量大小顺序为：RI （44.84%；52.35%）>FM （17.18%；41.65%）>CK （2.66%；16.55%）；（3）2种菌种处理下土壤呼吸速率均与土壤有机质、硝态氮、全氮、速效钾、树高、胸径及根系生物量呈显著或极显著正相关（P<0.01或0.05），而与pH呈极显著负相关（P<0.01），但对照处理土壤呼吸速率除与pH呈显著负相关（P<0.05）外，与其它土壤理化指标相关性不显著；（4）土壤温度和水分、硝态氮、铵态氮、有机质、易氧化有机碳、速效钾、全氮及全磷对土壤呼吸变化的贡献最大，而胸径、树高、有效磷、微生物生物量、根系生物量及pH的影响次之。因此，"AM真菌-寄主植物-土壤"相互作用对石漠化生境土壤呼吸季节动态的影响，主要取决于不同AM真菌接种处理对土壤微气候（如含水量）、碳素（有机质、易氧化有机碳）、无机氮库（铵态氮、硝态氮）、根系生物量及磷钾养分可利用性的调控。     

植被恢复模式对石漠化生态系统碳储量的影响

为揭示石漠化生态系统碳储量对植被恢复模式的响应,在广西天等县中度石漠化山地,研究了吊丝竹纯林(Dendrocalamus minorD)、任豆纯林(Zenia insignis Z)、任豆、蚬木(Buerretiodendron hsienmu)和顶果木(Acrocarpus fraxinifolius)混交林(mixed plantation M),以及相应同龄封育林(D_(CK)、Z_(CK)、M_(CK))的碳储量。结果表明:人工林碳储量显著高于相应同龄封育林的碳储量,D、Z、M人工林碳储量分别为67.75、66.56、121.20 t/hm~2,而D_(CK)、Z_(CK)、M_(CK)封育林仅为49.75、52.89、60.86 t/hm~2。碳储量在乔木层、地被物层、土壤层分配排序因生态系统类型而异,如M:乔木层土壤层地被物层;D和Z:土壤层乔木层地被物层;D_(CK)、Z_(CK)和M_(CK):土壤层地被物层乔木层。此外,M、D、Z乔木层年平均碳储量差异显著,而封育林尚未形成乔木层,其植被碳储量则随封育时间的增加而提高,即M_(CK)Z_(CK)D_(CK)。可见,在中度石漠化山地,植被恢复模式显著影响生态系统碳储量及其分配。人工造林相对于封山育林更能快速促进植被恢复、形成乔木林,从而提高生态系统碳储量。     

西南岩溶地区石漠化综合治理研究

我国西南岩溶地区石漠化是人地矛盾作用下生态系统退化的过程或结果,石漠化不仅带来水土流失加剧、旱涝灾害频发、生物多样性降低等生态问题,还会带来贫困落后等一系列社会问题。20世纪80年代开始进行的石漠化治理工作已经成为我国西南岩溶地区生态文明建设的重要举措与必由之路,通过近40年来的石漠化治理使得我国西南岩溶地区石漠化问题恶化的趋势开始得到扭转。面向生态文明新时期的建设目标,石漠化脆弱区仍存在人地矛盾难以全面消除、治理成果可持续性亟待提升等问题,石漠化防治需要从多年来石漠化治理研究与实践探索积累中汲取有益于促进人地和谐、提升生态系统可持续性的治理经验与做法。因此,本文以石漠化治理典型区域调研资料与文献资料为数据基础,从石漠化治理目标、技术、措施和模式四个层面梳理石漠化治理经验与做法,归纳总结出石漠化综合治理四点配置原则:(1)以治理目标与预期周期为导向,确立石漠化治理采取的措施;(2)针对解决的关键生态退化问题,结合区域特征遴选石漠化治理技术;(3)针对石漠化退化阶段的差异,确定石漠化治理途径措施;(4)结合石漠化综合治理模式的共性特征,以小流域为基本单元,因地制宜的选择与构建石漠化综合治理模式。以期通过对实践经验的总结为石漠化治理过程中选择具备区位适宜性和机理明晰性的生态技术提供参考。     

干热河谷石漠化区火龙果地不同耕作方式的土壤矿质元素特征

为探讨不同耕作方式的土壤矿质元素含量变化特征,促进火龙果生长发育和品质改良,该研究采用套种紫花苜蓿(Medicago sativa)、施用有机肥和化肥与农药、地膜覆盖和无措施五种耕作方式,以每种方式土壤的22种矿质元素为评价指标,比较不同耕作方式的矿质元素含量差异,阐明土壤矿质元素之间的相关关系。结果表明:(1)与无措施相比,其他耕作方式的Ca、Si、Mn等元素含量呈增加趋势,Fe、Mg、Al等元素含量则降低,Na含量无显著差异。(2)施用有机肥的矿质元素含量最丰富,地膜覆盖次之,套种紫花苜蓿最低。(3)相关性分析表明,火龙果地土壤矿质元素间多存在显著相关性,Al、Si、S、Ni与其他元素的相关性较密切,其次为Fe、Mg、Na、Mn、Cu和Co,均达到显著或极显著水平。(4) Ca、Fe、Mg、Mn、Cu、Zn和B之间多呈负相关,存在拮抗效应。干热河谷石漠化区在火龙果栽培时,应首选有机肥作为养分添加方式,并及时补充不同耕作方式造成的土壤矿质养分亏缺,尤其是Fe、Mg、Al、Na、Cu、Zn等元素。     

Direct seeding and outplantings in drylands of Argentinean Patagonia: estimated costs,and prospects for large‐scale restoration and rehabilitation

In large areas of the world that are deeply scarred by desertification and hampered by low capacity for natural regeneration, the scaling up of ecological restoration and rehabilitation can be achieved only if it is low in cost with high return on investment, and shows promise of providing long‐lasting social‐economic as well as ecological benefits. In the Monte Austral region of Patagonia Argentina, concerted efforts are underway to facilitate scaling up of ecological restoration and rehabilitation practices. Here, we evaluate financial costs and preliminary results of direct seeding as compared to outplanting of nursery‐grown seedlings of three native species (Atriplex lampa, Senecio subulatus var. subulatus, and Hyalis argentea var. latisquama) considered to be high‐priority dryland framework species. Comparative success is expressed in terms of plant survival and in monetary terms. The three candidate species showed low survival rates, ranging from 4.3 to 22.3%, after the first summer following direct seeding. In contrast, survival rates for planted seedlings of the same three taxa varied between 84 and 91%, after the first summer following reintroduction. However, cost of direct seeding varied between 1,693 and 1,772 US$ less per hectare, that is, 64% less than the cost of outplanting nursery seedlings. Therefore, in the search for ways to scale up ecological restoration and rehabilitation in drylands, direct seeding should receive more attention. We discuss the social and ecological perspectives and the way forward for direct seeding techniques in Patagonia. We also consider how costs could be reduced and effectiveness improved in large‐scale efforts.     

宁夏东部风沙区沙化草地土壤水分和植被的空间特征

土壤水分作为土壤-植被-大气连续体的关键因子,对沙化草地的演化过程具有重要作用。为探讨宁夏东部风沙区沙化草地土壤水分、物种丰富度指数及植被盖度的空间变异及其相互关系,以哈巴湖自然保护区沙化草地为对象,采用样线法自潜在沙化草地至重度沙化草地进行植被调查和土壤取样,通过经典统计学和地统计学分析,得出以下结果：0—100 m各土层土壤水分含量、植被盖度和物种丰富度指数的分布范围分别为0.82%—28.22%、41.00%—93.00%和0.82—2.80,变异系数范围为0.20—0.48,均属于中等变异。各土层土壤水分和物种丰富度指数表现为中等的空间自相关性,植被盖度则表现为强烈的空间自相关性。Kriging插值结果表明,0—100 cm各土层土壤水分和植被盖度的空间插值图呈条带状和斑块状的梯度变化,物种丰富度呈斑块分布,自潜在沙化草地至重度沙化草地,表现为逐渐降低的趋势。相关分析表明,植被盖度与0—40 cm各土层土壤水分呈显著正相关,与40—100 cm各土层土壤水分呈极显著正相关。宁夏东部风沙区沙化草地土壤水分含量总体较低,由于结构因素和随机因素的共同作用,随草地沙化程度的加重,表现为...     

Effect of Vegetation Rehabilitation on Soil Carbon and Its Fractions in Mu Us Desert,Northwest China

Although vegetation rehabilitation on semi-arid and arid regions may enhance soil carbon sequestration, its effects on soil carbon fractions remain uncertain. We carried out a study after planting Artemisia ordosica (AO, 17 years), Astragalus mongolicum (AM, 5 years), and Salix psammophila (SP, 16 years) on shifting sand land (SL) in the Mu Us Desert, northwest China. We measured total soil carbon (TSC) and its components, soil inorganic carbon (SIC) and soil organic carbon (SOC), as well as the light and heavy fractions within soil organic carbon (LF-SOC and HF-SOC), under the SL and shrublands at depths of 100 cm. TSC stock under SL was 27.6 Mg ha^?1, and vegetation rehabilitation remarkably elevated it by 40.6 Mgha^?1, 4.5 Mgha^?1, and 14.1 Mgha^?1 under AO, AM and SP land, respectively. Among the newly formed TSC under the three shrublands, SIC, LF-SOC and HF-SOC accounted for 75.0%, 10.7% and 13.1% for AO, respectively; they made up 37.0%, 50.7% and 10.6% for AM, respectively; they occupied 68.6%, 18.8% and 10.0% for SP, respectively. The accumulation rates of TSC within 0–100 cm reached 238.6 g m^?2y^?1, 89.9 g m^?2y^?1 and 87.9 g m^?2y^?1 under AO, AM and SP land, respectively. The present study proved that the accumulation of SIC considerably contributed to soil carbon sequestration, and vegetation rehabilitation on shifting sand land has a great potential for soil carbon sequestration.     

Heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of desertification in spatially explicit data

Regime shifts are abrupt transitions between alternate ecosystem states including desertification in arid regions due to drought or overgrazing. Regime shifts may be preceded by statistical anomalies such as increased autocorrelation, indicating declining resilience and warning of an impending shift. Tests for conditional heteroskedasticity, a type of clustered variance, have proven powerful leading indicators for regime shifts in time series data, but an analogous indicator for spatial data has not been evaluated. A spatial analog for conditional heteroskedasticity might be especially useful in arid environments where spatial interactions are critical in structuring ecosystem pattern and process. We tested the efficacy of a test for spatial heteroskedasticity as a leading indicator of regime shifts with simulated data from spatially extended vegetation models with regular and scale‐free patterning. These models simulate shifts from extensive vegetative cover to bare, desert‐like conditions. The magnitude of spatial heteroskedasticity increased consistently as the modeled systems approached a regime shift from vegetated to desert state. Relative spatial autocorrelation, spatial heteroskedasticity increased earlier and more consistently. We conclude that tests for spatial heteroskedasticity can contribute to the growing toolbox of early warning indicators for regime shifts analyzed with spatially explicit data.